Building the future on lessons learned from Eyjafjallajökull

Transcription

1 Building the future on lessons learned from Eyjafjallajökull Bo Redeborn Director Cooperative Network Design (CND), EUROCONTROL The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

2 Two different months April May 104,000 cancelled flights 10 Million disrupted passenger journeys 5,000 additional flights Limited delays Only 7,000 cancelled flights Heavy delays: 43% of flights delayed on departure Daily Traffic per Volcano Activity Week THU FRI SA T SUN M ON TUE WED W W

3 Differences between market segments Before After Full report at: 6

4 Icelandic traffic May

5 European Coordination - Unlocking the crisis: 19 th April Close coordination EC & EUROCONTROL EC political leadership EUROCONTROL network management expertise EUROCONTROL proposes three options Teleconference of the EUROCONTROL Provisional Council (AM) & EU Council of Ministers (PM) one solution chosen by States 8

6 March Solution VAAC London ash concentration data - NO FLY ZONE - Contaminated Zone - Ash Free Zone EUROCONTROL charts: to assist states in determining NO FLY ZONE buffer of 60NM States to decide on NO FLY ZONE 9

7 EHNANCED ROLE FOR EUROCONTROL/CFMU Early warning issue information on volcanic ash activity On request of national ATC providers : CFMU applies measures Facilitate information exchange e.g. organise teleconferences, help desk Publish charts to assist states in deciding on NO FLY ZONE NOP used as central data repository Collect reports on Volcanic Ash (initially for FABEC then ECAC wide) through EUROCONTROL Voluntary ATM Incident Reporting (EVAIR) mechanism 10

8 13.5 Millions hits in one day on the NOP The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

9 Volcanic Ash Safety Reporting 100 Phases of Flight Approach Climb De sce nt En-route Ground Take-off In-flight and post-flight observations Volcanic ash Very dirty air below Unusual cloud Suspect clouds Sulphur Smoke smell Smell of ash Haze Grey layer Grey cloud Engine fluctuation Engine failure Dust in air Brown layer Black cloud Ash in rain Ash cloud Abrasion dusty chemical smell,yellowish ice 0 20 The European 40 Organisation 60 for the Safety 80 of Air Navigation 100

10 Valid at 1800UTC 20/04/ FL70 FL ft FL270 FL350 FL150 FL ft FL150 FL70 FL150 FL160 FL FL ft FL FL FL FL260 FL250 FL220 FL FL340 FL310 FL FL110 The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

11 cont d Lessons learnt from ash crisis May 2010: European Aviation Crisis Coordination Cell E A S A Network management expertise Political leadership 14

12 European Aviation Crisis Coordination Cell (EACCC) Facilitate management of crisis situations affecting aviation in Europe EACCC Activated when circumstances beyond normal environment of ops are evident Airlines Members Airports ANSP Military Regulators 16

13 Instead of Conclusions Issues Volcanic ash vs. volcanic dust Accurate simulations of volcanic ash encounters for various types of aircraft and engines Similarity between volcanic ash/dust and sand atmospheric pollutant Volcanic ash longevity in the atmosphere Operators risks vs. ATM risks Impact of volcanic ash/dust on the human body Key Questions to be Answered What is the influence of the particle sizes on the aircraft parts exposed? Increased wear or safety hazard? Where does the safety hazard begin? There is much flying experience in sand contaminated atmosphere; is it worth using it for volcanic ash? Is it fair to demand total avoidance of the volcanic ash, since it floats up in the atmosphere for years? If operators decide they could fly through a contaminated area, is the ATM system able to cope with the increased emergency probability? Do aircraft occupants risk anything by breathing dustcontaminated air? Risk functions Reporting system optimization for relevance Does the risk function depend on concentration threshold, or time of exposure, or both in certain proportions? Does the risk depend on the particles dimension distribution? How should pilot reports and objective measurements be consistently used in an information system used by decision makers? We need appropriate and commensurate RISK MANAGEMENT!!! 18

14 What if an eruption starts tomorrow? Contingency or crisis? 19