Crosswind dependent separations and update on TBS concept (transitional step)

Transcription

1 Crosswind dependent separations and update on TBS concept (transitional step) June 2010 WAKENET 3 EUROPE 2 nd workshop Airbus, Toulouse Peter CHOROBA, EUROCONTROL peter.choroba@eurocontrol.int The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

2 Agenda Crosswind operations (CROPS) High-level generic concept of operations Initial benefit assessment Updated EUROBEN results LHR wind stability LHR & CDG benefits Safety criteria Update on Transitional TBS project LHR LIDAR campaign Next steps 2/22

3 Introduction CROPS = CRosswind OPerationS Implementation project (SESAR IP1) focused on runway use optimisation Conditional reduction of separations for departures and arrivals in crosswind operations Wake transported by wind away from the following aircraft path Atmospheric turbulence is sufficient to enhance the wake decay in a timeframe shorter than ICAO minimum separation 3/22

4 Who is involved EUROCONTROL generic concept validation Local adaptation: BAA - OPS team (ops expertise), R&D (data analysis) NATS OPS team (ops expertise), R&D (data analysis, safety assessment) UK Met Office MET expertise, MET data Consultation: UK CAA SRG Airlines EUROCONTROL Wake Vortex Task Force members 4/22

5 High-level concept of operations Based on CREDOS & ATC-WAKE concepts Procedure change only, with limited system support Authorise on the runway, during initial climb and on a final approach reduction or suspension of wake turbulence separation (time or distance) between WT pairs (as per ICAO Doc 4444) Conditional application only in specific crosswind conditions 5/22

6 Separation reduction Departures: Suspension of WT separation, resulting into spacing of sec (depending on SID layout and selection) Arrivals: Reduction by 0.5 NM - low case Reduction by 1.0 NM - high case 6/22

7 Required wind conditions Surface crosswind component wind is equal to or stronger than X kt Wind forecast confirms favourable wind speed and directions for winds aloft for the entire planning period (duration of this period will be shorter for departures = X min and larger for arrivals = Y min) No significant MET situations are forecasted Unfavourable MET conditions will need to be defined, e.g. thunderstorms, wind shear. 7/22

8 Expected benefits Expected benefits are of tactical nature: Reduced delays (ground and/or airborne) Improved RWY resilience Benefits dependent on: Traffic mix (e.g. H-H, H-M pairs) Wind distribution around the year Density 8/22

9 New results based on EUROBEN study* Update EUROBEN WP4 wind analysis to include winds from 5 to 10kt (use of 2009 LHR RWY anemometer data) Recalculate delay reduction using delay profiles from WP4 using new MET data analysis Note difference between CROPS and ATC- WAKE/CREDOS concepts from EUROBEN: Reduction for H-H pair was 0.5 or 1.0 NM (good match) Reduction for H-M pair was 1.5 to 2.0 NM (overestimation of delay reduction for this pair) Underestimation of benefits due to large applicability windows (all day, 5h-9h,9h-15h,15h-22h) * Ref.: EUROBEN deliverables WP3, WP4 D4.1 & D4.2, /22

10 New results based on EUROBEN study - Annual delay reduction at LHR Crosswind threshold 5 kt 6 kt 7 kt 8 kt 9 kt 10 kt Annual delay reduction in minutes (% reduction of annual delay) Low case (12.2%) (7.2%) (3%) (1.2%) (0.7%) (0.4%) CROPS arrivals High case (13.4%) (7.9%) (3.4%) (1.1%) (0.8%) (0.4%) CROPS departures Low case (6.3%) (3.9%) (1.8%) 7643 (0.7%) (0.5%) (0.2%) High case (10.4%) (6.6%) (3.1%) (1.3%) 9388 (0.9%) (0.4%) 10/22

11 40,0% 35,0% 36,7% Initial high-level X-wind component stability analysis for LHR 34,2% Cumulative occurence of crosswind component as % of total hours of operations (1 year of anemometer data - Q4/08-Q3/09) Departures 32,5% Arrivals 31,1% 30,0% 29,1% 27,4% 27,8% 25,0% 25,1% 23,5% 25,8% 22,1% 20,0% 19,4% 20,5% 19,3% 17,4% 17,8% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 13,5% 8,9% 5,7% 11,8% 7,6% 4,7% 16,0% 10,7% 6,7% 4,1% 15,0% 9,9% 6,1% 3,6% 13,6% 8,6% 5,4% 3,0% 12,5% 7,9% 4,8% 2,5% 11,1% 7,0% 4,1% 2,0% 0,0% Minimum duration of crosswind component conditions (in minutes) %_5kt %_6kt %_7kt %_8kt %_9kt %_10kt 11/22

12 Results from analytical modelling for LHR and CDG airports WT reduction by 1.0 NM for H-H and H-M pairs only Arrivals only OPS data correlated with one year of RWY anemometer data for crosswind criteria from 5 to 10 kt Two groups of benefits assessed: Real only taking into account H-H and H-M pairs separated close to ICAO separation (+20 seconds max) Max taking into account all H-H and H-M pairs with full distribution of separations Sum of total separations saved converted to potentially gained slots => tactical benefit only => resulting in reduction of airborne delay if wind conditions are met 12/22

13 Potentially gained arrival slots in 1 year per one RWY 4000 Number of potentially gained slots in 1 year per one arrival runway with CROPS operations CDG max CDG real LHR max LHR real kt 6kt 7kt 8kt 9kt 10kt Crosswind threshold 13/22

14 Annual % of potentially gained arrival slots per one RWY 5,00% Annual % of potentially gained slots per one arrival runway with CROPS operations (no HW) 4,50% 4,00% 3,50% 3,00% 2,50% 2,00% 1,50% 1,00% CDG max CDG real LHR max LHR real 0,50% 0,00% Crosswind threshold 14/22

15 Safety criteria Safety assessment activities are on-going Relative risk assessment criteria is proposed: WT risk per movement for a follower on final approach with reduced separations in crosswind conditions (CROPS procedure) being equal to or less than that of current ICAO approved in-trail WT risk (in calm wind conditions) 15/22

16 Transitional TBS current status Full TBS concept Initial validation of the concept undertaken by EUROCONTROL and NATS UK Further development undertaken in SESAR P6.8.1 Phase 1 TBS Transitional step towards full TBS (IP1 improvement) Draft concept of operations discussed with stakeholders Generic safety case under development 16/22

17 Transitional TBS current status Specific reduction of ICAO DBS in specified headwinds Reduction by 0.5nm Only on final approach Between wake turbulence separated a/c pairs Applied without new controller support tool (on/off procedure) Reliable MET information is essential: Approx. 15kt headwind component required on final approach Wind forecast for winds aloft 17/22

18 + RWY anemometer data & METAR ~1516m 27R 008 Vortex tracks + Crosswind ~635m Headwind (from 2 to 15 deg) ~796m VAD scan since March 2010 Vortex tracks + Crosswind ~1550m 27L /22

19 Phase 1 (300ft) Oct 08 Sept 10 27L + 27R Phase 2 (1000ft) Sept 10 Oct 11 27L + 27R NGE OGE LIDAR 19 / 57 LIDAR LIDAR positions are only schematic 19/22

20 Next steps Finalise Concept of Operations & OSED Refine benefit assessment for CROPS TAAM simulations for generic airport model HERMES simulations for LHR on-going Develop Safety Case CROPS Initial planning Safety Plan on-going Safety assessment - starting Preliminary Safety Case Guidance material for local SC Continue collaboration with local stakeholders addressing adaptation of generic concept to local conditions (LHR) 20/22

21 Thank you for your attention! The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation