InterFAB Ops meeting Traffic volatility in Brussels hotspot sectors

Transcription

1 InterFAB Ops meeting Traffic volatility in Brussels hotspot sectors Maastricht Upper Area Control Centre Dirk De Herdt Team Leader Airspace & Network Planning May 2016

2 Traffic volatility in Brussels hotspot sectors Particularities of the Brussels SG MUAC Main 2015 trend Analysis and Customer feedback Initiatives Trends Conclusions enter your presentation title 2

3 Particularities of the Brussels SG 1/2 MUAC traffic / day : 4500 Brussels SG / day : % 3

4 Particularities of the Brussels SG 2/2 5 Airports 6 Military zones High complexity enter your presentation title 4

5 MUAC Main 2015 trend Unbalanced traffic distribution at sector group level not in line with STATFOR forecast 4.1% in Brussels Sectors for the first 5 months of % in Hannover Sectors for the same period Result delay increased drastically in the Brussels sectors (structural limit reached) Capacity delay = 59% of total Brussels delay Weather delay = 24% Military exercises = 11% 5

6 Analysis & Customer feedback 1/3 Situation in Ukraine => Traffic shift from the Hannover Sector group to the Brussels Sector group Indication of delay avoidance behavior => Traffic fly through Belgium although it is a longer route to avoid delays in other sectors => capacity balancing should help enter your presentation title 6

7 Analysis & Customer feedback 2/3 Effect of Route Charges (Filed Routes SW Europe Scandinavia) % distribution of traffic on available routes 2012 (%) 2013 (%) 2014 (%) UK-France 4% 4% 4% = 2 Germany-Netherlands-Belgium-France 61% 64% 65% +4% 3 Germany-Belgium-France 14% 14% 13% -1% 4 Germany (MUAC) -Switzerland-France 17% 14% 12% -5% 5 Germany-Switzerland-France 3% 4% 3% = Other Germany-Hannover-Belgium-France 1% 1% 2% = Total 100% 100% 100% Route charges Belgium Netherlands Germany France Switzerland UK Jet fuel (gallon) Average price in % increase on route 2 5% decrease on route 4 => combination decrease in route charges in BE + increase in route charges in GE + low fuel price => longer routes are less expensive 7

8 Analysis & Customer feedback 3/3 Effect of Route Charges (Filed Routes SW Europe Scandinavia) % distribution of traffic on available routes 2012 (%) 2013 (%) 2014 (%) UK-France 4% 4% 4% = 2 Germany-Netherlands-Belgium-France 61% 64% 65% +4% 3 Germany-Belgium-France 14% 14% 13% -1% 4 Germany (MUAC) -Switzerland-France 17% 14% 12% -5% 5 Germany-Switzerland-France 3% 4% 3% = Other Germany-Hannover-Belgium-France 1% 1% 2% = Total 100% 100% 100% *2015 (%) Total % -1% -1% 70% +5% +9% 11% -2% -3% 12% = -5% 2% -1% -1% 2% = +1% 100% * Forecasted Route charges Belgium Netherlands Germany France Switzerland UK Jet fuel (gallon) Average price in

9 Initiatives 2015 (1/4) Airspace design Several initiatives were launched such as : Raising DFL Creating a 3rd layer Airspace design is always behind the curve. NOT enough 9

10 Initiatives 2015 (2/4) Summer plan Workload of 2014 is not sustainable => Increased use of pre-tactical scenarios and/or regulations Less (or even no) micro-management of traffic and regulations compared to 2014 => higher delay Introduction of the OAT grid (up to 20% reduced TMVs) => NOT enough 10

11 Initiatives 2015 (3/4) Traffic balancing (1/2) Providing, in close cooperation with DFS Karlsruhe, an extra option to the Airline operators 11

12 Initiatives 2015 (4/4) Traffic balancing (2/2) Traffic shift between Brussels and Deco started in W25. 12

13 2016 Trends Further signs that traffic seeks the optimum/cheapest routes Substantial increase of traffic in the Hannover and Deco sectors Neutral development in the Brussels sectors continued high pressure on the airspace 13

14 Conclusions Solutions do no lie with ATC or Airspace Design but with ATFM Solutions lie at network level and not at local level High traffic load requires => High quality of traffic planning which requires => High quality of predictions which require => High quality of data At local level We will fine tune existing measures by the plan do check act cycle 14

15 Passionate about performance 15