PATA Global Insights Conference 2017

Transcription

1 www. f o r w a r d k e y s. c o m PATA Global Insights Conference 2017 September 2017 Know tomorrow s travellers

2 ABOUT FORWARDKEYS ForwardKeys predicts future travel patterns by crunching and analysing 17M booking transactions a day. It is used by companies operating in the global travel ecosystem to monitor and anticipate traveller arrivals and stay ahead of the trends from a particular origin market at a specific time. THE REFERENCE FOR GLOBAL TRAVELER INTELLIGENCE Beijing 12% Shanghai 27% Hangzhou 14% ZERO IN ON WHAT REALLY MATTERS Get to the bottomline of granularity KNOW TOMORROW S TRAVELLERS Profiling capabilities from a different angle KNOW WHAT S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW Daily data freshness as a differentiator CASH IN, SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY Know who will be traveling, where and when 2 2

3 Travel & Tourism Resilience 3

4 Global International Air Travel 2017 Year to Date THE AMERICAS Departures Arrivals +7.1% +2.0% EUROPE Departures Arrivals +4.2% +7.3% Middle East & AFRICA Departures Arrivals +5.2% +8.4% ASIA PACIFIC Departures Arrivals +4.1% +3.3% 4

5 International Arrivals in Asia Pacific: Top long-haul Source Markets Top Origin Countries in terms of GROWTH 2017 Year to Date %Var. Year to Date: +3.3% EUROPE +7.5% +25% +16% +11% THE AMERICAS +7.7% +35% +28% 5

6 Increasing & Unprecedented Shocks 6

7 May 26 May 28 Jun 01 Jun 03 Jun 05 Jun 09 Jun 11 Jun 15 Jun 17 Jun 19 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 30 Jul 02 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 14 Jul 16 Jul 20 Jul 22 Jul 24 Jul 28 Jul 30 Aug 03 Aug 05 Aug 07 Aug 11 Aug 13 Aug 17 Aug 19 Aug 21 Aug 25 Aug 27 Aug 31 Sep 02 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 14 Sep 16 Sep 18 Sep 22 Sep 24 Sep 28 Sep 30 Oct 09 Oct 13 Oct 15 Oct 19 Stock market crash really discourages Chinese to book trips Evolution of Shanghai Stock Exchange and YoY %Var Int l Air Bookings from China: During May 26 th to October 20 th Panic and first government reactions Control policies and high spending June 18. Regulators Shanghai limits Stock Exchange July 5. People s Composite Bank Index of China short selling. injects liquidity. June 27. China s Central Bank July 8. Beijing prohibits stock cut rates and cash reserve sales by major shareholders. ratio. Government activity reduction Aug 14. Some traded companies are allowed to sell stock. Aug 25. Cut rates again after Shanghai index reaches lowest volume. Self-adjusting Sep 7. Tax benefits for longterm shareholders. 26 th and 27 th Mid-Autumn Day Stimulus expectation Oct 12. Central Bank announced stimulus. 1 th - 7 th Golden Week

8 Bookings for travel to Barcelona: negative for 3 weeks after the attack Bookings for travel to Barcelona, long haul markets (excl. Europe), weekly YoY var. BCN BCN attack on 17 th August +20.2% YoY -7.9% YoY 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 21-Jul 28-Jul 4-Aug 11-Aug 18-Aug 25-Aug 1-Sep 8-Sep 8

9 Travellers are thrilled by the ease of visa: Chinese as a great example Growth in Chinese arrivals in the destination since its visa ease policy was implemented CN Thailand visa free of charge for 3 months* +73% USA 10-year visa +6% Canada 10-year visa +21% Chile visa exemption for US/CA visa holders +53% India E-visa +11% Ecuador visa exemption +69% Malaysia E-visa +48% Indonesia E-visa U.K. +28% 2-year visa +17% Morocco visa exemption +398% Peru visa exemption for US/CA/UK/AU/Sch engen visa holders +39% Argentina E-visa for US/CA/Schengen visa holders +18% Armenia E-visa +70% Serbia visa exemption +280% Israel 10-year visa +41% U.A.E. visa on arrival, free of charge +36% Tunisia visa exemption +217% Belarus 5 days visa exemption +40% 9 *Variation only for arrivals between Aug and Oct 2014.

10 Daily UK arrivals in NZ Destination New Zealand: British and Irish Lions tour warmed the winter Daily arrivals from UK to New Zealand NZ VS VS Opening match June 3 rd % VS 1 st Test June 24 th Last match July 8 th +290% Hist. OTB 14 May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul 17 10

11 What is next? 11

12 Destination South Korea: suffering the absence of Chinese travellers KR 2016 Year to Date Forward Looking Full Year Jan to Sep 15 th 2017 Sep 16 th to Dec 31 st % 0% -50% 0% -50% 0% International 25% -30% -22% International Excl. China 16% - 0.4% -6% Excl. China China to South Korea flight capacity +11% -21% -19% China to South Korea flight capacity 12

13 Destination Guam: forward looking is worrying towards year end Year-on-year variations of international air arrivals in Guam: 2017 Year to Date & On the Book January 1 st 2017 FIRST THREAT August 9 th 2017 September 19 th 2017 December 31 st 2017 On the Book Arrivals from Japan Arrivals from South Korea Total international arrivals in Guam Jan 1 st to FIRST THREAT FIRST THREAT until Sep 19 th -13% -30% +41% +12% +11% -9% YoY %Var. of Arrivals on the book Sep 20 th to Dec 31 st % +14% -3% 13

14 Asia Pacific destinations: South Korea was the only loser among Top 15 Asia Pacific Vietnam (+16%; 20%) Malaysia (+11%; 13%) Philippines (+8%; 11%) Indonesia (+22%; 11%) Australia (+8%; 5%) New Zealand (+11%; 8%) 14

15 GET IN CONTACT forwardkeys.com Jameson Wong Director of Business Development APAC Mobile: