Sunshine Coast Council

Transcription

1 Sunshine Coast Council Sunshine Coast Council area Population and Household Forecasts 2016 to 2026 population forecast 1

2 Table of contents Home 3 About the forecast areas 4 Drivers of population change 5 Population summary 8 Population, households and dwellings 10 Components of population change 12 Population and age structure 14 Household types 16 Dwellings and development 19 Population and age structure 22 Household types 56 Residential development 68 Net migration by age 71 Non-private dwellings 72 Births and deaths 74 About the forecasts 75 Factors of population change 76 Household and suburb life cycles 78 Forecast modelling process 81 Notes on base data 85 Glossary 86 2

3 Welcome to Sunshine Coast Council area population forecasts The Sunshine Coast Council area Population and Household Forecasts present what is driving population change in the community and how the population, age structure and household types will change each year between 2016 and The forecasts are designed to provide community groups, Council, investors, business, students and the general public with the knowledge to make confident decisions about the future. These forecasts were last updated in October 2017 by.id, the population experts, on behalf of Sunshine Coast Council. Forecasts are available for each year from 2016 to Important Population 2016 Population 2026 Change Statistics 303, , % Forecast population 3

4 About the forecast areas The Sunshine Coast Council area includes the suburbs, townships and rural localities of Alexandra Headland, Aroona, Bald Knob, Balmoral Ridge, Battery Hill, Beerburrum, Beerwah, Belli Park, Bells Creek, Birtinya, Bli Bli, Bokarina, Booroobin, Bribie Island North, Bridges, Buddina, Buderim, Burnside, Caloundra, Caloundra West, Cambroon, Chevallum, Coes Creek, Conondale, Coochin Creek, Coolabine, Cooloolabin, Coolum Beach, Crohamhurst, Curramore, Currimundi, Diamond Valley, Dicky Beach, Diddillibah, Doonan (part), Dulong, Eerwah Vale, Elaman Creek, Eudlo, Eumundi, Flaxton, Forest Glen, Gheerulla, Glass House Mountains, Glenview, Golden Beach, Highworth, Hunchy, Ilkley, Image Flat, Kenilworth, Kiamba, Kidaman Creek, Kiels Mountain, Kings Beach, Kulangoor, Kuluin, Kunda Park, Kureelpa, Landers Shoot, Landsborough, Little Mountain, Maleny, Mapleton, Marcoola, Maroochy River, Maroochydore, Meridan Plains, Minyama, Moffat Beach, Mons, Montville, Mooloolaba, Mooloolah Valley, Mount Coolum, Mount Mellum, Mountain Creek, Mudjimba, Nambour, Ninderry, North Arm, North Maleny, Obi Obi, Pacific Paradise, Palmview, Palmwoods, Parklands, Parrearra, Peachester, Pelican Waters, Peregian Beach (part), Peregian Springs, Perwillowen, Point Arkwright, Reesville, Rosemount, Shelly Beach, Sippy Downs, Tanawha, Towen Mountain, Twin Waters, Valdora, Verrierdale, Warana, West Woombye, Weyba Downs, Witta, Woombye, Wootha, Wurtulla, Yandina, Yandina Creek and Yaroomba. Forecast areas Sunshine Coast Council area Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2026, prepared by.id the population experts, October

5 Drivers of population change Development History The Sunshine Coast Council area is a rapidly growing residential and tourist area located in south-east Queensland, about 100 kilometres north of Brisbane. It encompasses a total land area of about 2,200 square kilometres, including significant beaches, coastline, waterways, national parks, state forests and bushland. The area is diverse in terms of its land use and economic base with a mixture of urban areas, resort towns, tourist developments, inland towns, rural land and parkland. Tourism is a major industry with many resorts and holiday accommodation located along the coast. Much of the rural area is used for dairy farming, cattle grazing and crop growing. Although European settlement of the Sunshine Coast dates back to 1850s, significant development did not occur until the post-war years, as the area began to develop into a centre for tourism. Rapid growth took place particularly from the late 1960s when the population of the Council area increased from about 21,000 in 1947 to about 36,000 in The population has continued to increase rapidly, rising to nearly 137,000 in 1991, to about 200,000 in 2001, and then to over 267,000 in 2011, becoming one of the fastest growing Council areas in Australia. The Sunshine Coast has several significant urban hubs, concentrated predominantly on the coast at Caloundra, Kawana Waters and Maroochydore; whilst inland centres such as Nambour, Maleny and, increasingly, Beerwah, have developed primarily as commercial centres for the hinterland Migration patterns The primary housing market role that the Sunshine Coast plays is varied: the coastal urban areas attract retirees from Brisbane and interstate (mainly New South Wales) and younger adults accessing employment (generally within tourism and the service economy); new developments along the coast (such as Pelican Waters and Peregian Springs) and established suburban areas (such as Buderim) tend to attract older families as well as empty-nesters; meanwhile, townships within the hinterland predominantly attract families and retirees from the wider rural region. The urban hubs of Maroochydore and Caloundra, and the University of the Sunshine Coast in Sippy Downs attract young people from rural areas, regional Queensland and overseas to educational and employment opportunities, while the Sunshine Coast Region as a whole loses young people to larger centres in Queensland such as Brisbane and interstate. The importance of the Sunshine Coast as a destination for families and retirees is expected to continue into the future, with migration mostly comprised of parents with young children attracted to new greenfield development areas and empty nesters and retirees attracted to coastal centres and, to a lesser degree, the rural hinterland around centres such as Maleny. These trends are driven by large new areas of housing and commercial development, particularly around Kawana Waters and the development of the Maroochydore City Centre, the ongoing development of Peregian Springs and significant greenfield opportunities in Palmview (Harmony) and Caloundra South (Aura). 5

6 Historical migration flows, Sunshine Coast Council area, Overseas' refers to arrivals only. Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2026, prepared by.id the population experts, October Note: The migration flows depicted above do not represent future or forecast migration flows. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question where did the person usually live 5-years ago. 6

7 Housing role and function With a variety of residential, tourism focussed and rural areas as well as the location and development of large institutions such as the Sunshine Coast Public University Hospital (opened 2016) and the University of the Sunshine Coast, different areas within the Sunshine Coast have developed different roles within the housing market. The urban beachside areas of Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise, Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach, Maroochydore and Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland are important retirement destinations as well as significant areas for tourism. Urban hubs such as Maroochydore, Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach and Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland have large amounts of tourist and rental accommodation attractive to retirees and young adults due to their location, relative ease of travelling to the university, employment opportunities and a large stock of medium and high density housing. Other beachside areas such as Golden Beach, Wurtulla - Buddina & District, Pelican Waters, and areas stretching away from the coast, such as Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park, have a more suburban aspect which, whilst attracting significant numbers of empty-nesters and retirees, have a large stock of detached housing that appeals to families with children. This is a similar pattern to that experienced in the rural centres of Nambour, Maleny, Beerwah and Landsborough, which attract retirees from the wider region (wanting to be close to services as needs change) and families. Other rural areas such as Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi, Maleny - Witta - North Maleny, Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North and Yandina - Yandina Creek & District attract large numbers of empty-nesters owing to lifestyle choice and proximity to national parks. In contrast newly developed estates in Mountain Creek (Brightwater) and Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek (Aura) attract predominantly young families with children aged 0-9 years and first-time homebuyers. Housing Supply There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the Sunshine Coast which will have a major influence on population and household outcomes over the forecast period. Significant greenfield opportunities have been identified in Palmwoods and Caloundra South that are expected to attract families with children and also provide affordable housing options for first-time home-buyers. Further residential development in Pelican Waters and Peregian Springs is likely to appeal to empty-nesters and retirees as well as established families who are second or third time homebuyers. The construction of Maroochydore s CBD (SunCentral) as a regional centre in an already established town is expected to influence the mix of housing and population in the immediate area. In the longer term, there are likely to be further greenfield opportunities identified within the hinterland in response to increasing longer term demand within South-East Queensland. There are also significant residential opportunities within other established urban areas, with the development of Oceanside at Kawana Waters likely to supply significant numbers of higher and medium density housing opportunities. These projects, together with the continuing development of the Sunshine Coast Public University Hospital, are expected to provide significant employment and economic opportunities for the Region, further stimulating housing demand. The continued development of the University can be expected to have a similar outcome in Sippy Downs, prompting further commercial and residential growth. There are also significant opportunities for greater densification of housing around Nicklin Way with the establishment of the proposed light-rail transport system and, overtime, is expected to add significantly to the dwelling stock. Beachside areas, such as Caloundra, Wurtulla, Maroochydore, Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland and Coolum Beach are expected to have considerable numbers of apartments and units built on redevelopment sites for both tourism and retirement purposes, while older suburbs such as Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park and Sippy Downs are expected to have large rates of infill development due to the age and size of housing lots in the area. Finally, low density residential subdivision is expected to continue around townships throughout the period, collectively adding relatively significant numbers over the forecast period, attracting predominantly families with children and empty-nester households. 7

8 Population summary This table summarises the population for Sunshine Coast Council area and each of its small areas. This enables you to see how population change is affecting different parts of the LGA in different ways. Some small areas may be rapidly growing whilst others are stable or even declining in population. Please note that population numbers in forecast.id for the 2016 base year are derived from Estimated Resident Population from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. These differ from (and are usually higher than) Census counts as they factor in population missed by the Census and population overseas on Census night. They are generally considered a more accurate measure of population size than Census counts. Population summary Forecast year Change Area Number % Average annual change Sunshine Coast Council area 292, , ,839 76, Beerwah 6,328 7,749 8,882 2, Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba 2,318 2,326 2, Bli Bli - Rosemount & District 12,194 14,518 14,846 2, Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 32,278 33,460 35,048 2, Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach 9,866 10,535 11,659 1, Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright 14,277 15,635 16,209 1, Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach 14,545 14,871 16,043 1, Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges 3,524 3,611 3, Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North 5,824 6,375 7,119 1, Golden Beach 5,338 5,391 5, Ilkley - Eudlo & District 4,692 4,971 4, Landsborough - Mount Mellum 4,458 4,942 5,512 1, Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 20,350 27,117 37,236 16, Maleny - Witta - North Maleny 5,777 6,163 6, Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi 2,507 2,728 3, Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba 10,547 11,461 12,665 2, Maroochydore 16,404 20,495 23,369 6, Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland 11,856 13,056 13,257 1, Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob 4,414 4,585 4,

9 Forecast year Change Area Number % Average annual change Mountain Creek 15,010 16,421 16,548 1, Nambour - Burnside & District 17,069 19,131 21,839 4, Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy 7,714 8,047 8, Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha 1,849 1,825 1, Pelican Waters 6,198 8,440 10,414 4, Peregian Springs 6,617 10,420 10,476 3, Reesville - Curramore & District 2,613 2,605 2, Sippy Downs - Palmview 10,777 13,245 20,052 9, Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) 4,224 4,193 4, Woombye 3,185 3,751 4, Wurtulla - Buddina & District 23,259 26,303 27,439 4, Yandina - Yandina Creek & District 6,938 7,834 9,142 2,

10 Population, households and dwellings This summary shows the results of the forecasts for population, households and dwellings in Sunshine Coast Council area. The period 2016 to 2026, as the short to medium term, is likely to be the most accurate and useful forecast information for immediate planning purposes. It is important to look at the relationship between population and average household size. If the average household size is falling, then there will need to be growth in the number of households (and dwellings for them to live in) to maintain or grow the population. Forecast population, households and dwellings Sunshine Coast Council area Forecast year Summary Population 303, , ,839 Change in population (5yrs) 36,137 39,255 37,634 Average annual change Households 116, , ,672 Average household size Population in non-private dwellings 4,004 5,853 6,017 Dwellings 129, , ,250 Dwelling occupancy rate

11 Forecast population, households and average household size Key findings In 2016, the total population of Sunshine Coast Council area was estimated to be 292,950 people (ABS Census figure is 303,389 people). It is expected to increase by over 76,890 people to 369,839 by 2026, at an average annual growth rate of 2.39%. This is based on an increase of over 45,200 households during the period, with the average number of persons per household remaining stable at 2.48 to

12 Components of population change There are two ways in which populations can change, through net migration and/or through natural increase (births minus deaths). Some areas are more driven by one or other of these factors. Migration is largely driven by housing development, whereas natural increase is a function of the age of the population. Components of population change Sunshine Coast Council area Forecast period Component Births 16,226 18,218 20,809 Deaths 16,868 19,019 21,327 Natural increase/decrease Net migration 22,328 38,207 37,988 Change in persons in non-private dwellings 290 1, Total population change 22,137 39,225 37,634. Forecast population change 12

13 Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease Forecast in, out and net migration 13

14 Population and age structure Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care. The forecast age groups of Sunshine Coast Council area are a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles. Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2011 and 2026 Age group (years) Number % Number % Number 0 to 4 17, , ,020 5 to 9 18, , , to 14 19, , , to 19 17, , , to 24 15, , , to 29 15, , , to 34 16, , , to 39 18, , , to 44 20, , , to 49 20, , , to 54 19, , , to 59 19, , , to 64 18, , , to 69 17, , , to 74 14, , , to 79 10, , , to 84 7, , , and over 6, , ,833 Total persons 292, , ,

15 Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Source: Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2026, prepared by.id, the population experts, October Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups 15

16 Key findings In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Sunshine Coast Council area was ages 40 to 44, and 45 to 49, which accounted for 6.9% of the total persons for each age group. The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 5,556 and account for 6.4% of the total persons. The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is forecast to be 40 to 44 years, with a total of 24,693 persons. 16

17 Household types Analysing the future household structure in Sunshine Coast Council area, especially in conjunction with age structure, provides insight to the role the area plays in the housing market. Some areas, usually with separate housing stock, are dominated by families. Others, with more dense housing in inner city locations have significant numbers of lone person households and couples without dependents. Forecast household types Sunshine Coast Council area - Total persons Change between 2016 and 2026 Type Number % Number % Number Couple families with dependents 32, , ,267 Couples without dependents 38, , ,426 Group households 4, , Lone person households 26, , ,398 One parent family 11, , ,403 Other families 1, ,

18 Forecast household types Forecast change in household types, 2016 to

19 Key findings In 2016, the dominant household type in Sunshine Coast Council area was Couples without dependents, which accounted for 33.6% of all households. The largest increase between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in Couples without dependents, which will increase by 11,426 households and account for 34.4% of all households. In contrast Other families is forecast to increase by 344 households, to comprise 1.5% of all households in 2026, compared to 1.6% in

20 Dwellings and development Legend Visualising the geographic pattern of growth in dwelling stock across Sunshine Coast Council area is a good starting point for assessing the scale and type of change each part of the area is undergoing. Some areas will be experiencing significant growth in new dwellings, either through greenfield development or densification and renewal. However it would be a mistake to assume that areas not experiencing significant housing development are not undergoing change. Other processes will be at work such as the aging-in-place of the existing population and changing household structures. The age structure and household type maps will uncover these population shifts. Forecast dwellings and development map Sunshine Coast Council area, 2016 to 2026 number change. 20

21 Forecast dwellings and development Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 129, , , Beerwah 2, , , Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba , Bli Bli - Rosemount and District 4, , , Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 13, , , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach 6, , , Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright 6, , Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach 6, , Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges 1, , Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North 2, , Golden Beach 3, , Ilkley - Eudlo and District 1, , Landsborough - Mount Mellum 1, , Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 7, , , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny 2, , Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi 1, , Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba 5, , , Maroochydore 9, , , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland 6, , , Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob 1, , Mountain Creek 5, , Nambour - Burnside and District 7, , , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy 3, , Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters 2, , , Peregian Springs 2, , , Reesville - Curramore and District 1, , Sippy Downs - Palmview 3, , , Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) 1, , Woombye 1, , Wurtulla - Buddina and District 10, , , Yandina - Yandina Creek and District 2, , ,

22 Population and age structure Knowing when and where to deliver age-based services is an essential part of local government planning. Mapping the distribution of selected age groups across Sunshine Coast Council area provides the evidence-base for efficiently targeting and delivering these services. Population and age structure map - persons aged 0 to 4 years 22

23 Population and age structure - persons aged 0 to 4 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 17, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 1, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 1, , , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek 1, , Nambour - Burnside & District 1, , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview , Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

24 Population and age structure map - persons aged 5 to 9 years 24

25 Population and age structure - persons aged 5 to 9 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 18, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 2, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright 1, , Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach , Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 1, , , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek 1, , Nambour - Burnside & District 1, , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview , Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

26 Population and age structure map - persons aged 10 to 14 years 26

27 Population and age structure - persons aged 10 to 14 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 19, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District , Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 2, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright , Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach , Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 1, , , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek 1, , Nambour - Burnside & District 1, , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview , Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

28 Population and age structure map - persons aged 15 to 19 years 28

29 Population and age structure - persons aged 15 to 19 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 17, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 2, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 1, , , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek , Nambour - Burnside & District , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview 1, , Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

30 Population and age structure map - persons aged 20 to 24 years 30

31 Population and age structure - persons aged 20 to 24 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 15, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 1, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek , , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore 1, , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland 1, , Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek Nambour - Burnside & District Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview 1, , Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

32 Population and age structure map - persons aged 25 to 29 years 32

33 Population and age structure - persons aged 25 to 29 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 15, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 1, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 1, , , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore 1, , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland 1, , Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek 1, Nambour - Burnside & District , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview , Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

34 Population and age structure map - persons aged 30 to 34 years 34

35 Population and age structure - persons aged 30 to 34 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 16, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 1, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 1, , , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore 1, , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek 1, , Nambour - Burnside & District , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview , , Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

36 Population and age structure map - persons aged 35 to 39 years 36

37 Population and age structure - persons aged 35 to 39 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 18, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 1, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright 1, , Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 1, , , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek 1, , Nambour - Burnside & District 1, , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview , Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

38 Population and age structure map - persons aged 40 to 44 years 38

39 Population and age structure - persons aged 40 to 44 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 20, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District , Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 2, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright 1, , Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach , Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 1, , , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek 1, , Nambour - Burnside & District 1, , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview , Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

40 Population and age structure map - persons aged 45 to 49 years 40

41 Population and age structure - persons aged 45 to 49 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 20, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District , Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 2, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright 1, , Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach , Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 1, , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek 1, , Nambour - Burnside & District 1, , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview , Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

42 Population and age structure map - persons aged 50 to 54 years 42

43 Population and age structure - persons aged 50 to 54 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 19, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District , Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 2, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright 1, , Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach 1, Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore 1, , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek , Nambour - Burnside & District 1, , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

44 Population and age structure map - persons aged 55 to 59 years 44

45 Population and age structure - persons aged 55 to 59 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 19, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District , Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 2, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright , Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore 1, , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek Nambour - Burnside & District 1, , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

46 Population and age structure map - persons aged 60 to 64 years 46

47 Population and age structure - persons aged 60 to 64 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 18, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District , Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 2, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright , Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach , Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore 1, , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek Nambour - Burnside & District 1, , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

48 Population and age structure map - persons aged 65 to 69 years 48

49 Population and age structure - persons aged 65 to 69 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 17, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 2, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore 1, , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek Nambour - Burnside & District , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

50 Population and age structure map - persons aged 70 to 74 years 50

51 Population and age structure - persons aged 70 to 74 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 14, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 1, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek Nambour - Burnside & District , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

52 Population and age structure map - persons aged 75 to 79 years 52

53 Population and age structure - persons aged 75 to 79 years Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 10, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 1, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek Nambour - Burnside & District Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

54 Population and age structure map - persons aged 80 years and over 54

55 Population and age structure - persons aged 80 years and over Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2016 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 14, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 1, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach , Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach , Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore 1, , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek Nambour - Burnside & District 1, , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 1, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

56 Household types Mapping the distribution of different household types across the Sunshine Coast Council area provides insight into the roles that different areas play in the housing market and how these are changing. It also identifies where there are concentrations of households which have specific service requirements. Forecast household types map Couple families with dependents 56

57 Forecast household types Couple families with dependents Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2011 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 32, , , Beerwah , Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District 1, , Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 4, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright 1, , Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach 1, , Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 2, , , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba 1, , Maroochydore 1, , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland , Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek 2, , Nambour - Burnside & District 1, , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy , Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters , Peregian Springs , Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview 1, , , Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 2, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District ,

58 Forecast household types map Couples without dependents 58

59 Forecast household types Couples without dependents Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2011 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 38, , , Beerwah , Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District 1, , Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 4, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach 1, , Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright 1, , Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach 1, , Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 2, , , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny 1, , Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba 1, , Maroochydore 2, , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland 1, , Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek 1, , Nambour - Burnside & District 1, , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy 1, , Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters 1, , Peregian Springs , Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview 1, , Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 3, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District ,

60 Forecast household types map - Group households 60

61 Forecast household types - Group households Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2011 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek Nambour - Burnside & District Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

62 Forecast household types map Lone person households 62

63 Forecast household types Lone person households Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2011 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 26, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District , Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 2, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach 1, , Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright 1, , Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach 1, , Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 1, , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba 1, , Maroochydore 2, , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland 1, , Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek Nambour - Burnside & District 1, , Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview , Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 2, , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

64 Forecast household types map One parent family 64

65 Forecast household types One parent family Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2011 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 11, , , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 1, , Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek , Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore , Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek Nambour - Burnside & District Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District , Yandina - Yandina Creek & District Source: Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2026, prepared by.id, the population experts, October

66 Forecast household types map Other families 66

67 Forecast household types Other families Sunshine Coast Council area Change between 2011 and 2026 Area Number % Number % Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 1, , Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek Nambour - Burnside & District Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District Yandina - Yandina Creek & District

68 Residential development The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces). Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up..id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Sunshine Coast Council area. 68

69 Forecast residential development, 2011 to 2026 Sunshine Coast Council area Change in dwelling between 2011 and 2026 Area Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 36, Beerwah 1, Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District 1, Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park 1, Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach 1, Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek 7, Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba 1, Maroochydore 3, Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland 1, Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek Nambour - Burnside & District 2, Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters 1, Peregian Springs 1, Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview 3, Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District 2, Yandina - Yandina Creek & District 1,

70 Forecast residential development 70

71 Net migration by age Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area. Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks. Between 2016 and 2026, migration assumptions influenced by: Substantial population gain over the forecast period owing to significant new housing opportunities across the Council area, especially in the growth areas of Caloundra South (Aura), Palmview (Harmony) and the Kawana development area. Additionally, the localities of Pelican Waters, Sippy Downs and Peregian Springs continue to grow. The redevelopment of the Maroochydore CBD (SunCentral) will encourage migration to the business centre of the sunshine Coast. Strong attraction of young and established families (0-14 and years) fuelled by the availability of new housing in greenfield areas The traditional net loss due to migration of young adults (15-24 years), attracted by employment, education and housing opportunities elsewhere (but principally in Brisbane and interstate) is forecast to begin to reduce for the year olds post 2016, with greater availability of housing choice and the growth in employment opportunity as SunCentral develops. Strong attraction of empty-nesters and retirees (50-69 years) to coastal areas and other areas offering lifestyle and retirement options Attraction of older persons (aged 70+) to lifestyle options and aged-care support and services 71

72 Forecast net migration by age group Non-private dwellings Residential non-private dwellings include aged care facilities as well as defence force facilities, hospitals, prisons, staff quarters and boarding houses. As a general rule, an increase in people aged 18 to 24 living in non-private dwellings indicates a growth in student accommodation, defence force facilities or prisons. Similarly an increase in people aged over 75 living in non-private dwellings indicates growth in aged care facilities. 72

73 Persons in non-private dwellings Sunshine Coast Council area Year Change between 2016 and Number % Sunshine Coast Council area 4,004 6,017 2, Beerwah Belli Park - Cooloolabin - Gheerulla - Coolabine - Kureelpa - Kiamba Bli Bli - Rosemount & District Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach Coolum Beach - Mount Coolum - Yaroomba - Point Arkwright Currimundi - Aroona - Battery Hill - Dicky Beach Eumundi - Eerwah Vale - North Arm - Bridges Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North Golden Beach Ilkley - Eudlo & District Landsborough - Mount Mellum Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek Maleny - Witta - North Maleny Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise - Mudjimba Maroochydore Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland Mooloolah Valley - Diamond Valley - Balmoral Ridge - Bald Knob Mountain Creek Nambour - Burnside & District Palmwoods - Chevallum - Montville - Hunchy Peachester - Crohamhurst - Booroobin - Wootha Pelican Waters Peregian Springs Reesville - Curramore & District Sippy Downs - Palmview Weyba Downs - Verrierdale - Doonan (part) Woombye Wurtulla - Buddina & District Yandina - Yandina Creek & District Source: Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2026, prepared by.id, the population experts, October

74 Key findings There were 4,004 people estimated to be living in non-private dwellings in Sunshine Coast Council area in The number of persons in non-private dwellings in Sunshine Coast Council area is expected to increase to 6,017 persons in Between 2016 and 2026, Nambour Burnside & District is forecast to experience the greatest change, with a gain of 401 persons in non-private dwellings. This is due to an increase of persons in non-private dwellings aged 75 years and over, which is predominantly aged care. Births and deaths The number of births in Sunshine Coast Council area are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period. Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile. Death rates The forecast number of deaths in Sunshine Coast Council area is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Sunshine Coast Council area, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over). Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women. 74

75 About the forecasts The Sunshine Coast Council area population and household forecasts are undertaken by.id, the population experts, on behalf of the Sunshine Coast Council area. During the forecast modelling process,.id assesses what is driving population change in the area and forecasts how the age structure and household types will change as result. Forecasts are only as good as the assumptions they are based on, and.id works closely with the council to ensure we have detailed information about current and planned residential development activity. The forecasts are updated on a rolling cycle to take into account changes in the real world. All assumptions, as well as the results of the forecasts, are made available in this site. The forecasts were last updated in October Forecasts are available for Sunshine Coast Council area and small areas for each year from 2011 to The forecasts are designed to provide community groups, Council, investors, business, students and the general public with knowledge to make confident decisions about the future. Whilst all due care has been taken to ensure the content of this website is accurate and current, there may be errors or omissions in it and no legal responsibility is accepted for the information and opinions in this report. In addition, as the website is based on historic information which is subject to revision, we do not guarantee its currency. 75

76 Factors of population change At the small area level, the key factors of population change are the age structure of the existing population, the housing markets attracted to and away from an area and their associated demographic characteristics (fertility patterns, household types etc.) and the supply of dwellings and mix of housing stock in the area. Dwelling additions The addition of dwellings is the major driver of population growth, providing opportunities for new households (such as young people leaving the family home and divorces) or households relocating from other areas. Current age structure The age structure of the local population impacts on Sunshine Coast Council area's household types and size, the likelihood of the local population having children and to die, as well as the propensity for people to move. Age specific propensities for a population to have children or die are applied to each small area's base population. An older population will have fewer births, more deaths, while a younger population will have vice versa. Birth rates Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having very low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile. 76

77 Death rates Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men gaining on women's greater life chances. Migration Migration is one of the most important factors of population change. While births and deaths are relatively easy to predict due to reliable age specific behaviour, migration is volatile, often changing due to housing market preferences, economic opportunities and changing household circumstances. Migration patterns vary across Australia and change across time, but most moves tend to be short and incremental in nature. Regional areas have larger moves due to the distances between towns and cities, where people often move for economic reasons, mainly the availability of employment or education and training opportunities. The most mobile age groups in the population are the young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. It is for this reason that young people often move the greatest distances and sometimes move against pre-established patterns. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation if appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks. 77

78 Household and suburb life cycles Household life cycles The type of households that people live in and changing preferences over time affects the way in which a population changes. As people grow from children to adults and into old age, they change the type of households that they live in. The traditional path has been to start as a child in a family household, move into a group or lone person household as a youth, becoming a part of a couple relationship within 5-10 years. Rearing of children is followed by an empty-nester period and ultimately being a lone person, as partners die. Understanding the changes that people make at different ages in their life, and the different types of housing they are likely to consume at those life stages is an important factor in forecasting future population and household types. The life stage which the majority of households in an area are going through gives an insight into its location in the suburb life-cycle (see below), and the likely life-path of those households in the future. 78

79 Suburb life cycles The dominant household types present in a suburb or town - where the majority of the populations sit in the household life path - dictate in part the role and function of the area. This is shown by its place in the "suburb life cycle". New areas are typically settled by young households (young couples and young families, perhaps some mature families). As the families grow and mature, household size increases. After initial rapid development, most households "age in place", with slowly shifting demand for services, facilities and dwelling types. As households age further and children begin to leave home, the average household size decreases, resulting in more empty nester (two person) households, often still living in large family homes. Family breakups can also result in single parent families and lone person households. If a suburb can't attract young families back to the area, it slowly becomes populated by older couples whose children have left home and older lone persons whose partners have died, resulting in declining population for some time. Alternatively, if a suburb is in a location close to economic drivers of change, it may be able to attract families to move back into the older dwellings in the area, increasing household size and population again. This will generally happen sooner, with less loss of services if the area has a diversity of housing options suiting a wide variety of household types. Empty nesters are likely to downsize into lower maintenance properties, freeing up larger format housing for families to move into, and continue the cycle again. The loop in the diagram represents the process of sustainability of an area, if it can attract families back into older housing in the area. Depending on the proximity of an area to work and education it may also attract young lone persons and group households. The attractiveness of an area to family groups, group and lone person households is shown in the migration assumptions section. Generally, more diverse communities are more sustainable in the long term, as they are able to maintain a range of services and facilities useful to all age groups. Certain policy responses can influence the suburb life cycle in different directions. 79

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81 Forecast modelling process Approach The diagram below describes the general approach used by.id in its population and household forecasts. An analysis of the current population and household structure often reveals the role and function of an area and the degree to which an area may be going through some form of demographic transition. Demographic changes, such as birth, death and migration rates are applied to the base population. At the same time, scrutiny of urban development drivers is undertaken (residential development opportunities, vacancy rates etc.). The combination of varied assumptions about these inputs results in forecast population and households by type. 81

82 Modelling process The modelling process used for producing the small-area forecasts is based on a 'bottom-up' approach, with all assumptions being derived from a local perspective. The components of the model are derived exclusively from housing and demographic assumptions. The drivers of the forecasts are predominantly based on levels of new residential development and demographic assumptions, such as in and out migration rates from the local areas. The diagram below describes the detail of the modelling process used by.id in its population and household forecasts. 82