Regional Aviation Association of Australia

Transcription

1 Regional Aviation Association of Australia The Next 10 Years: Opportunities for Aviation Across Australia Bernard Salt 11 October 2012

2 Disclaimer These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided. KPMG has not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation, unless these are confirmed in writing by KPMG. KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation has been issued in final form. The findings in this presentation have been formed on the above basis. Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of KPMG or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions. Neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a third party on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party s sole responsibility. The presentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the conference attendees and is not to be copied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without KPMG s prior written consent. KPMG accepts no responsibility to anyone other than the conference attendees for the information contained in this presentation.

3 Australians are reluctant to move from the capital cities or the coast FIFO proves this point Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1986 and 2011 Karratha Geraldton PERTH Broome FIFO WEST DARWIN FIFO CENTRAL FIFO EAST Cairns-Port Douglas TOWNSVILLE Mackay Gladstone Bundaberg Hervey Bay Sunshine Coast Gold Coast Byron Bay Coffs Harbour Port Macquarie Port Stephens Augusta- Margaret River Denmark Victor Harbor Narooma Winners 2012 KPMG, an Australian partnership and Losers a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG Surf Coast Sorell

4 Are Australia s newest tribes represented in the public face of your airline? Country of Birth 2011 United Kingdom 1,101,100 New Zealand 483,400 China 319, % change 1,038,200 6% 389,500 24% 206,600 54% India 295, , % Italy 185,400 Vietnam 185,000 Philippines 171,200 South Africa 145,700 Malaysia 116,200 Germany 108, ,100-7% 159,800 16% 120,500 42% 104,100 40% 92,300 26% 106,500 1% Top 10 ethnicities in Australia at the 2011 and 2006 Censuses

5 New acronyms for the new tribes of Australia PUMCINS. NETTELs KIPPERS LOMBARDs

6 Develop strategies to service rising consumer demand in specific segments over the coming decade : 3.2 million or 19m 22m : 3.3 million or 22m 25m 450, , ,000 Mature adults Corporate flight lounges Business travel Premiumisation Young adults Frequent flyer programs Budget holidays Backpacking Retirees Eco-travellers New backpackers Value-driven 300, , ,000 Kids & teenagers School holidays Gold Coast Worlds 150, ,000 50, Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2011 and 10 years to 2021

7 Increasing life expectancy is creating new stages of the lifecycle and new markets for work and leisure travel 2012 Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old 82 Child Teen Old Adult Child Adult Old Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia

8 Fastest growing towns in Australia are on the beach is there scope for air-connection in these markets? 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% Mandurah Gladstone Busselton Bunbury Townsville Coastal Rural Capital Alice Springs Broken Hill Mandurah Gladstone Busselton Bunbury Townsville Perth Geraldton Mackay Orange Ballarat Mount Barker Canberra-Queanbeyan Gold Coast-Tweed Brisbane Melbourne Hervey Bay Cairns Sunshine Coast Livingstone (Yeppoon) Tamworth Nowra-Bomaderry Bendigo Toowoomba Albany Kalgoorlie/Boulder Geelong Sydney Newcastle Port Macquarie Shepparton Taree (Greater) Rockhampton Albury-Wodonga Dubbo Byron Goulburn Greater Hobart Warrnambool Bathurst Mildura Coffs Harbour Maryborough Wingecarribee (Bowral-Moss Vale) Adelaide La Trobe Valley Great Lakes (Forster) Bundaberg Wagga Wagga Grafton Armidale Singleton Ballina Kempsey Griffith Mount Isa Wollongong Lismore Launceston Darwin Eurobodalla (Narooma) Lithgow Bega Valley Burnie-Devonport Nambucca Mount Gambier Burdekin (Ayr) Whyalla Johnstone (Innisfail) Broken Hill Alice Springs Percentage growth in population over 12 months to June 2011 for the 70 largest towns in Australia

9 The Pilbara has 55,000 permanent residents and 24,000 visitors on any single night difference is FIFO 21, ,000 Karratha Port Hedland 14, ,000 Isaac Qld: 21, ,000 Pannawonica 9, ,000 Tom Price Paraburdoo Marble Bar 11, ,000 Population of residents and visitors in the Pilbara at 2011 Census

10 The transformation of Karratha began in 2006 Total passenger movement at Karratha Airport, Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; Shire of Roebourne/Alan Kohler; KPMG

11 The market for overseas visitors is changing in composition (more boomers) but not substantially in volume Students Backpackers Overseas Visitors 206,000 in ,000 in Baby boomers Overseas visitors in Australia by single year of age at the 2001 and 2011 Censuses

12 Australia is shifting its tourism focus from Japan to China do you really understand how this Asian market works? New Zealand 1, UK USA China Japan Singapore Malaysia Korea Kong Germany Total 5, ,197 Top 10 sources of international visitors (000 s) to Australia in 2010 with changes from 2000 and projections to 2020 Source: Tourism Forecasting Committee Forecast 2 (October 2011); KPMG

13 The rise in the value of the Australian dollar is luring holiday-makers overseas 1. Other holiday fares - overseas 260% 2. Holiday motel/hotel charges - overseas 222% 3. National park fees and charges 200% 4. Other package tours - overseas 148% 5. Holiday air fares - overseas 101% 6. Travel insurance - selected payments 64% 7. Holiday air fares - Australia 40% 8. Day trips and other excursions 39% 9. Airfare inclusive package tours - overseas 39% 10. Holiday flat/house charges - Australia 21% 11. Holiday motel/hotel charges - Australia 18% 12. Airfare inclusive package tours - Australia 16% 13. Other package tours - Australia 6% 14. Holiday petrol - Australia 4% 15. Other holiday fares - Australia (including vehicle hire) 4% Total Goods & Services expenditure 38% Per cent change in holiday and travel spending by households over six years to June 2010

14 There has been a shift in the Australian economy away from manufacturing and towards healthcare 300, , , ,000 Healthcare Professionals Mining 4 years August 2008 up 1.3m (9.6m 10.8m) 4 years August 2012 up 561k (10.8m 11.4m) Finance, Wholesale, Real Estate, Transport, Retail 100,000 50, , , ,000 Manufacturing, Construction, Agriculture Net change in total jobs in Australia over two successive four-year periods, August 2004 August 2012

15 Baby boomers will re-engineer retirement in the coming decade beware the rise of the grumpy retiree! , , , , , ,000 Population growth 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Net growth in population (65+) over 100 years in Australia

16 Three phases of baby boomer tourism Lonely Planet Limited travel window; Bali discovered Marriage & mortgage Hippie Trail to London Nimbin 1973 Car trips Camping Annual holidays Large family network; VFR Holiday Infrastructure Seaworld, Dreamworld, Movieworld Interstate destinations by air/road Noosa, Coolum, Port Douglas, Sanctuary Cove Caravan holidays Gold Coast destination Coastal resorts Cheap Airfare Weekends away Indulgences and rewards Palazzo Versace Cheap air travel VirginBlue, Jetstar and Frequent Flyer redemption Change to the Annual Holiday shorter breaks; more frequent Day spas and retreats

17 Gen X and Gen Y on the same track Holiday Infrastructure Cheap Airfare Gen X Popularised backpacking Single in 20s Travel with single partner Colonised Cairns and Byron Bay Limited funds: HECS Developed work overseas culture (Boomers were on Contiki holidays) Caravan holiday childhood experience Gen X Baby Bounce Both parents work: - weekends away - need to co-ordinate diaries Demise of annual vacation HECS, mortgages & petrol prices place pressure on road travel Time, as well as cost of travel, now a factor Caravan holiday costeffective Gen Y Smaller families; VFR diminished Invented GAP year; OE; Schoolies Colonised new markets: Hervey Bay; Avalon; Vietnam Rich parents; prosperous times Travel connected to tribalism Big expectations of holidays

18 Introducing Brisbane s bachelor hotspot Deception Bay 1.30:1 Upper Mt Gravatt 1.74:1 Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged at the 2011 Census

19 Contact Bernard Salt KPMG Australia bsalt@kpmg.com.au twitter.com/bernardsalt linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt facebook.com/bernardsaltdemographer