ASBA SA & NT. Trends Shaping the Future of Australian Education. Bernard Salt. 20 August 2014

Transcription

1 ASBA SA & NT Trends Shaping the Future of Australian Education Bernard Salt 20 August 2014

2 Disclaimer These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided. KPMG has not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation, unless these are confirmed in writing by KPMG. KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation has been issued in final form. The findings in this presentation have been formed on the above basis. Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of KPMG or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions. Neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a third party on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party s sole responsibility. The presentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the conference attendees and is not to be copied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without KPMG s prior written consent. KPMG accepts no responsibility to anyone other than the conference attendees for the information contained in this presentation.

3 Global and Australian Trends

4 Australia is a good place to do business BIGGEST 1. United States China Japan Germany France United Kingdom Brazil Russian Fed Australia RICHEST 1. Norway 81, Australia 67, United States 53, Canada 52, Netherlands 48, Germany 45, France 41, United Kingdom 39, Japan 38, Italy 35,000 FASTEST-RISING 1. China 104% 2. Indonesia 70% 3. India 53% 4. Argentina 51% 5. Australia 48% 6. Saudi Arabia 43% 7. Brazil 36% 8. South Korea 30% 9. Russian Fed. 26% 10. Switzerland 24% $UStn GDP 2013 GDP > $US600bn $US GDP pc 2013 GDP > $US600bn Source: Based on World Bank World Development Indicators data (updated July 2014); KPMG Demographics

5 We are an urban people with city-based jobs and interests Darwin Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and 2013 WINNERS LOSERS Perth Adelaide Brisbane Sydney Canberra Melbourne Hobart

6 The Chinese and the Indians are re-shaping Australia s ethnic mix Country of Birth % change United Kingdom 1,219,900 1,166,000 5% New Zealand 608, ,700 26% China 427, ,000 37% India 369, ,200 47% Vietnam 215, ,500 14% Philippines 210, ,000 29% Italy 199, ,300-6% South Africa 173, ,300 26% Malaysia 148, ,400 26% Germany 127, ,500 1% Top 10 ethnicities in Australia between 2008 and 2013

7 New acronyms for our newest tribes PUMCINS Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice Suburbs NETTELs KIPPERS Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings LOMBARDS Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead Source: KPMG Demographics

8 Primary and junior secondary population set to surge! : 3.4 million (19.7m to 23.1m) : 4.2 million (23.1m to 27.3m) Kids & teenagers Young adults Mature adults Active Retirees = 500, ,000 Primary & secondary Household formation Student and school support School volunteers 400, , , , , , ,000 50, Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2013 and 10 years to 2023

9 Australians are dividing the lifecycle into thirds require skills over a longer working life 2014 Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old 82 Child Teen Adult Old Child Adult Old Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia

10 From Boomers to Xers and Ys and finally to Zeds BABY BOOMERS X GENERATION Y GENERATION Z GENERATION Born Born Born Born Today Today Today Today 0 13 Hierarchical Forgotten generation Special bubble-wrap Parents results-oriented Indulged their kids Wrong place wrong time Chaotic connection Youth in straitened times Depression era parents No workplace guilt Entrepreneurials Highly educated, global Sandwich generation Angsty about Ys Disappointed generation? Pragmatists fixers Source: KPMG Demographics

11 The school age population rises and falls and is now on the up and up 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, , Net annual change in the Australian population aged 5-17 between 1951 and 2050 (based on ABS 2013 projections)

12 There has been a fundamental shift in the Australian economy since the GFC 300, ,000 Health & Social Assistance 5 years May 2009 up 1.3m (9.5m 10.8m) 5 years May 2014 up 800k (10.8m 11.6m) 200,000 Professionals & Sciences 150, ,000 Education Mining 50, , ,000 Healthcare & Social Assist. Professional/ Scientific/Tech. Education &Training Mining Other services Accom & Food Admin & Support Rental & Real Estate Construction Public Admin & Safety Retail Trade Financial & Insurance Utilities Agriculture Freight & Storage Arts & Recreation Wholesale Trade Info Media/ Telecoms Manufacturing

13 Australia is growing jobs in caring, selling, managing and doing Number Change Aged or Disabled Carer 30, Teachers Aide 13,900 2 General Clerk 30, Miner 13,600 3 Child Care Worker 21, Barista 13,400 4 Electrician (General) 20, Chef 13,100 5 Checkout Operator 20, Accountant (General) 13,000 6 Accounts Clerk 17, Carpenter 11,500 7 Program or Project Administrator 16, ICT Project Manager 11,500 8 Office Manager 16, Solicitor 11,400 9 Truck Driver (General) 14, Primary School Teacher 11, Sales Assistant (General) 14, Fitter (General) 10,700 Net change in employment by occupation in Australia over 5 years to 2011

14 but is contracting jobs in typing, assembling, farming and filling Number Change Secretary (General) -28, Dairy Cattle Farmer -3,000 2 Corporate Services Manager -14, Sewing Machinist -2,600 3 Product Assembler -7, Safety Inspector -2,500 4 Mixed Shelf Filler -6, Switchboard Operator -2,500 5 Crop & Livestock Farmer -6, Mixed Livestock Farmer -2,400 6 Medical Laboratory -5, Credit or Loans Officer -2,200 7 Office Cashier -4, Residential Care Officer -2,200 8 Metal Engineering Process Worker -4, Analyst Programmer -2,100 9 Real Estate Representative -3, Integration Aide -2, Vineyard Worker -3, Telecommunications Technician -1,900 Net change in employment by occupation in Australia over 5 years to 2011

15 Strong population growth drives demand for schools and for school teachers 2011 % change Teachers' Aide 48,200 41% Out of School Hours Care Worker 5,300 31% Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Education Worker 1,900 28% Special Needs Teacher 14,600 24% Education Adviser 8,100 21% Early Childhood (Pre-primary School) Teacher 18,300 20% Office Manager 108,200 17% Primary School Teacher 137,400 9% Vocational Education Teacher 33,800 9% School Principal 19,200 6% Secondary School Teacher 125,000 5% Net change in education-related occupations in Australia over 5 years to 2011

16 Local Trends

17 The pressure is on in South Australia and the Northern Territory in delivering education and other services 30,000 Net Interstate Migration Net Overseas Migration Natural Increase 25,000 20,000 South Australia 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10, ,000 6,000 4,000 Northern Territory 2, ,000-4, Components of population growth in South Australia and Northern Territory between 1982 and 2013

18 It s lifestyle, resources and commuting that drives population growth and business opportunity 10.0 Ellenbrook 9.0 Broome Karratha Adelaide Port Augusta Darwin Murray Bridge Victor Harbor Port Lincoln Mt Gambier Alice Springs Moe-Newborough Whyalla Port Pirie Ellenbrook Broome Karratha Melton Torquay Bacchus Marsh Emerald Busselton Gladstone - Tannum Sands Perth Bunbury Geraldton Highfields Yeppoon Darwin Cessnock Townsville Mackay Warragul - Drouin Port Hedland Kalgoorlie - Boulder Melbourne Albany Warwick Rockhampton Brisbane Gold Coast - Tweed Heads Sunshine Coast Cairns Bathurst Ocean Grove - Point Lonsdale Morisset - Cooranbong Sydney Ballarat Orange Bendigo Murray Bridge St Georges Basin - Sanctuary Point Drysdale - Clifton Springs Canberra - Queanbeyan Mount Isa Toowoomba Albury - Wodonga Tamworth Gympie Gisborne - Macedon Geelong Nelson Bay - Corlette Victor Harbor - Goolwa Goulburn Hervey Bay Bowral - Mittagong Newcastle - Maitland Wollongong Mildura - Wentworth Dubbo Echuca - Moama Adelaide Coffs Harbour Wagga Wagga Maryborough Ballina Port Augusta Shepparton - Mooroopna Port Macquarie Warrnambool Forster - Tuncurry Kurri Kurri - Weston Central Coast Port Lincoln Sale Muswellbrook Bundaberg Mount Gambier Armidale Griffith Batemans Bay Lithgow Hobart Alice Springs Taree Wangaratta Horsham Bairnsdale Lismore Ulladulla Port Pirie Launceston Nowra - Bomaderry Ulverstone Colac Traralgon - Morwell Devonport Singleton Whyalla Broken Hill Camden Haven Parkes Burnie - Wynyard Moe - Newborough Percentage growth in population over 12 months to June 2013 for the 100 largest significant urban areas (SUA) in Australia

19 South Australia is shifting away from a manufacturing base to a services-based economy requiring specific skills Expanding South Australian occupations between General Clerk 3, Kitchenhand Aged or Disabled Carer 2, Barista Checkout Operator 2, Chef Truck Driver (General) 1, Fitter (General) Electrician (General) 1, Miner Accounts Clerk 1, Commercial Cleaner Child Care Worker 1, Building Associate Carpenter Registered Nurse (Critical Care & Emergency Personal Care Assistant Cafe Worker Sales Assistant (General) Waiter 600 Net change in employment by occupation in South Australia over 5 years to 2011

20 Fewer jobs in manufacturing and agriculture in South Australia Contracting South Australian occupations between Product Assembler -2, Product Examiner Secretary (General) -2, Motor Mechanic (General) Vineyard Worker -1, Plastics Factory Worker Mixed crop & livestock Farmer -1, Chief Executive or Managing Director Corporate Services Manager Recycling or Rubbish Collector Metal Engineering Process Worker Shelf Filler Grape Grower Switchboard Operator Credit or Loans Officer Sales rep (personal & household goods) Toolmaker Family Day Care Worker Fruit or Nut Grower Winery Cellar Hand -200 Net change in employment by occupation in South Australia over 5 years to 2011

21 Common themes in the business world More for Less customers want you to deliver more and to pay you less Competition from left field often associated with new technology Globalisation new players discovering Australia Business and workers need to be resilient and open to change Source: KPMG Demographics

22 Issues impacting school business administration Rising population plus increasing demands on the tax base will translate into reduced government support Students need technical skills and soft skills like resilience Professional parents out-source education and childcare the school is a commodity how to manage expectations Possible impact of new ethnicities over time Source: KPMG Demographics

23 Introducing Adelaide s bachelor hotspot Vale Park 1.56:1 Trinity Gardens Glenside 1.34:1 Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged at the 2011 Census

24 Connect Bernard Salt Demographer