Marine15. What the Future Brings and How To Be Prepared. Bernard Salt. 3 May 2015

Transcription

1 Marine15 What the Future Brings and How To Be Prepared Bernard Salt 3 May 2015

2 Disclaimer These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided. KPMG has not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation, unless these are confirmed in writing by KPMG. KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation has been issued in final form. The findings in this presentation have been formed on the above basis. Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of KPMG or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions. Neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a third party on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party s sole responsibility. The presentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the conference attendees and is not to be copied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without KPMG s prior written consent. KPMG accepts no responsibility to anyone other than the conference attendees for the information contained in this presentation.

3 How much debt is too much debt? -250 Norway (+215%) Australia (-17%) New Zealand (-27%) US (-81%) UK (-85%) Greece (-166%) % countries GDP at least US$200bn No data for China & Russia 200 Net Debt per cent GDP 2015 for countries over US$200 billion GDP * excl those not reporting Net Debt eg China & Russia Source: Based on IMF Fiscal Monitor October 2014 Statistical Table 8 data & IMF World Economic Outlook Database October 2014 data; KPMG Demographics

4 Australians have always been driven by lifestyle Darwin Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and 2014 WINNERS LOSERS Perth Adelaide Melbourne Brisbane Sydney Canberra Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics Hobart

5 23 years of continuous economic prosperity shapes a nation and its people creates a culture of aspirational consumerism s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s GST GFC Whitlam Hawke Menzies Fraser Sep-1959 Mar-1960 Sep-1960 Mar-1961 Sep-1961 Mar-1962 Sep-1962 Mar-1963 Sep-1963 Mar-1964 Sep-1964 Mar-1965 Sep-1965 Mar-1966 Sep-1966 Mar-1967 Sep-1967 Mar-1968 Sep-1968 Mar-1969 Sep-1969 Mar-1970 Sep-1970 Mar-1971 Sep-1971 Mar-1972 Sep-1972 Mar-1973 Sep-1973 Mar-1974 Sep-1974 Mar-1975 Sep-1975 Mar-1976 Sep-1976 Mar-1977 Sep-1977 Mar-1978 Sep-1978 Mar-1979 Sep-1979 Mar-1980 Sep-1980 Mar-1981 Sep-1981 Mar-1982 Sep-1982 Mar-1983 Sep-1983 Mar-1984 Sep-1984 Mar-1985 Sep-1985 Mar-1986 Sep-1986 Mar-1987 Sep-1987 Mar-1988 Sep-1988 Mar-1989 Sep-1989 Mar-1990 Sep-1990 Mar-1991 Sep-1991 Mar-1992 Sep-1992 Mar-1993 Sep-1993 Mar-1994 Sep-1994 Mar-1995 Sep-1995 Mar-1996 Sep-1996 Mar-1997 Sep-1997 Mar-1998 Sep-1998 Mar-1999 Sep-1999 Mar-2000 Sep-2000 Mar-2001 Sep-2001 Mar-2002 Sep-2002 Mar-2003 Sep-2003 Mar-2004 Sep-2004 Mar-2005 Sep-2005 Mar-2006 Sep-2006 Mar-2007 Sep-2007 Mar-2008 Sep-2008 Mar-2009 Sep-2009 Mar-2010 Sep-2010 Mar-2011 Sep-2011 Mar-2012 Sep-2012 Mar-2013 Sep-2013 Mar-2014 Sep-2014 Per cent change in Australian GDP by quarter from September 1959 Source: ABS Catalogue Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product; KPMG Demographics

6 Australia is now an Anglo-Mediterranean-Asian-Indian fusion culture 1 United Kingdom 1.0 million 6 Vietnam 223,000 2 New Zealand 617,000 7 Italy 202,000 3 China 447,000 8 South Africa 176,000 4 India 397,000 9 Malaysia 154,000 5 Philippines 225, Germany 129,000 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

7 New acronyms for our newest tribes PUMCINS Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice Suburbs KIPPERS NETTELs Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings LOMBARDS Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead Source: KPMG Demographics

8 Population hotspots cluster on the coast we should be a boating nation! Sydney 1,863 2 Melbourne 1,524 3 Brisbane Adelaide Perth Newcastle Hobart 95 8 Wollongong 91 9 Geelong Launceston Ballarat Toowoomba Rockhampton Townsville Ipswich Bendigo Broken Hill Canberra Blue Mountains Kalgoorlie Sydney 4,841 2 Melbourne 4,440 3 Brisbane 2,275 4 Perth 2,021 5 Adelaide 1,305 6 Gold Coast - Tweed Newcastle - Maitland Canberra - Queanbeyan Sunshine Coast Wollongong Greater Hobart Geelong Townsville Cairns Greater Darwin Toowoomba Ballarat Bendigo Albury - Wodonga Launceston Sydney 7,688 2 Melbourne 7,670 3 Perth 4,633 4 Brisbane 4,188 5 Adelaide 1,797 6 Gold Coast - Tweed 1,225 7 Canberra - Queanbeyan Newcastle - Maitland Sunshine Coast Wollongong Townsville Geelong Greater Hobart Cairns Greater Darwin Toowoomba Mackay Ballarat Bendigo Rockhampton ,847 3,230 2,358 2, Population figures expressed in 000s Source: KPMG; based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics; relevant State Government planning authorities

9 Even small fast-growing towns tend to be coastal Ellenbrook 2. Melton 3. Karratha 4. Gladstone-Tannum Sands 5. Busselton 6. Ocean Grove-Pt Lonsdale 7. Bunbury 8. Bacchus Marsh 9. Torquay 10. Warragul-Drouin 100. Kalgoorlie-Boulder 99. Grafton 98. Moe-Newborough 97. Colac 96. Lismore Melbourne Perth Sydney Brisbane Darwin Adelaide Canberra Hobart Ellenbrook Melton Karratha Gladstone - Tannum Sands Busselton Ocean Grove - Point Lonsdale Bunbury Bacchus Marsh Torquay Warragul - Drouin Drysdale - Clifton Springs Perth Melbourne Griffith Port Hedland Bairnsdale Albury - Wodonga Geraldton Morisset - Cooranbong Highfields Emerald St Georges Basin - Sanctuary Point Sydney Sunshine Coast Albany Brisbane Darwin Ballarat Cessnock Yeppoon Gold Coast - Tweed Heads Townsville Bendigo Port Macquarie Dubbo Bathurst Gisborne - Macedon Geelong Mackay Rockhampton Hervey Bay Orange Bowral - Mittagong Nowra - Bomaderry Nelson Bay - Corlette Victor Harbor - Goolwa Cairns Wagga Wagga Muswellbrook Newcastle - Maitland Tamworth Port Lincoln Adelaide Toowoomba Shepparton - Mooroopna Canberra - Queanbeyan Central Coast Wollongong Mildura - Wentworth Ballina Murray Bridge Ulladulla Lithgow Coffs Harbour Warrnambool Maryborough Forster - Tuncurry Echuca - Moama Batemans Bay Camden Haven Hobart Mount Gambier Gympie Goulburn Kurri Kurri - Weston Broome Bundaberg Whyalla Horsham Launceston Devonport Singleton Warwick Sale Port Pirie Ulverstone Broken Hill Wangaratta Traralgon - Morwell Armidale Alice Springs Burnie - Wynyard Taree Mount Isa Port Augusta Lismore Colac Moe - Newborough Grafton Kalgoorlie - Boulder Percentage growth in population over 12 months to June 2014 for the 100 largest significant urban areas (SUA) in Australia Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

10 Water-based leisure and boating has relevance to all age groups : 3.6 million (19.9m to 23.5m) : 4.2 million (23.5m to 27.7m) Kids & teenagers 20s Families Mature adults Active retirees Surfing Canoeing/kayaking Socialising Jet skis Houseboats Fishing Prestige boats Cruises 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50, Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2014 and 10 years to 2024 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

11 Water-based leisure activities are part of the Australian lifestyle Walking for exercise Fitness / Gym Jogging / Running Swimming / Diving Cycling / BMXing Golf Tennis (indoor and outdoor) Outdoor soccer Netball (Indoor and outdoor) Basketball (indoor & outdoor) Yoga Bush walking Dancing / Ballet Australian Rules football Martial arts Outdoor cricket Indoor soccer Pilates Surf sports Lawn bowls Fishing Horse riding / Equestrian activities / Polo Canoeing / Kayaking / Dragon boat Hockey (indoor and outdoor) Squash / Racquetball Surf Water Water Males Females ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Sports and physical activities participated in by Australians by sex in Population ( 000) Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

12 Australians are dividing the lifecycle into thirds 2014 Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old 82 Child Teen Adult Old Child Adult Old Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

13 From Boomers to Xers and Ys and finally to Zeds BABY BOOMERS X GENERATION Y GENERATION Z GENERATION Born Born Born Born Today Today Today Today 0 13 Hierarchical Forgotten generation Special bubble-wrap Parents results-oriented Indulged their kids Wrong place wrong time Chaotic connection Youth in straitened times Depression era parents No workplace guilt Entrepreneurials Highly educated, global Sandwich generation Angsty about Ys Disappointed generation? Pragmatists fixers Source: KPMG Demographics

14 There has been a shift in the Australian economy towards knowledge workers 6 years February 2009 up 1.4m (9.4m 10.8m) 300,000 Healthcare & Social Assistance 6 years February 2015 up 1.0m (10.8m 11.8m) 250, , ,000 Professionals & Sciences Education Accommodation & Food 100,000 50, , ,000 Healthcare & Social Assist. Professional/ Scientific/Tech. Education & Training Accom & Food Public Admin & Safety Mining Admin & Support Other Services Rental/hiring & Real Estate Construction Arts & Recreation Transport/Postal/ Warehouse Retail Trade Financial & Insurance Electricity/Gas/ Water & Waste Info Media & Telecoms Wholesale Trade Agriculture/Forestry & Fishing Manufacturing Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

15 The Australian boat building and allied services industries are changing Industry 2011 % Port and Water Transport Terminal Operations 6,574 46% Includes ports & freight, water passenger terminal, ship mooring, wharf operation Scenic and Sightseeing Transport 5,469 21% Includes charter fishing boat operation, hovercraft operation, airboat operation Shipbuilding and Repair Services 6,260 14% Ship building Water Passenger Transport 1,623 4% Boat charter, lease or rental, ferry operation (boat & passenger), water taxi Marine Equipment Retailing 2,580-15% Boatbuilding and Repair Services 6,044-28% Boat retailing, boat trailers, marine accessories, outboard motors, yachts, nautical/sailing accessories Boat building (canoes, dinghies, jet boats, motorboats, sailboats, yachts) & repairs Occupation 2011 % Boat Builder and Repairer 2,691-33% Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

16 Where are the opportunities in Australia is a first-world nation that has enjoyed an era of unparalleled prosperity... that has converted into an interest in leisure boating The Baby Boomers have passed through peak boating over the last 20 years the challenge will be to engage their Gen Y children Most of the Australian population is located near water and has a predisposition to water-based leisure boating should come naturally to this community Boat building is shedding jobs in Australia and the scope for new marinas is limited demand for trailer boats and ramps must increase as must the boat importing business The challenge is to remain connected with a boating or water-based offer to all age groups and especially the 20-Something Gen Ys! Source: KPMG Demographics

17 Introducing the Gold Coast bachelor hot spot Surfers Paradise 1.85:1 Burleigh Golf Club Golf Club of Love Reedy Creek 2.41:1 Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged at the 2011 Census Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

18 Connect Bernard Salt Demographer