IOOF. Motivational Forces Shaping the Australian Community. Bernard Salt. 30 May 2014

Transcription

1 IOOF Motivational Forces Shaping the Australian Community Bernard Salt 30 May 2014

2 Disclaimer These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided. KPMG has not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation, unless these are confirmed in writing by KPMG. KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation has been issued in final form. The findings in this presentation have been formed on the above basis. Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of KPMG or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions. Neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a third party on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party s sole responsibility. The presentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the conference attendees and is not to be copied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without KPMG s prior written consent. KPMG accepts no responsibility to anyone other than the conference attendees for the information contained in this presentation.

3 Australia is a good place to do business Biggest $UStn GDP United States China Japan Germany France United Kingdom Brazil Russian Fed Italy India Richest GDP > $US500bn $US GDP pc Norway 100, Switzerland 79, Australia 68, Sweden 56, United States 52, Canada 52, Japan 47, Netherlands 46, Germany 43, France 40, Australia Indicators of economic wealth for leading countries between 2002 and 2012 Fastest-rising GDP > $US500bn % 1. Russian Fed. 484% 2. China 466% 3. Iran 374% 4. Indonesia 349% 5. Brazil 347% 6. Australia 288% 7. Saudi Arabia 277% 8. India 255% 9. Turkey 239% 10. Norway 161% Source: Based on World Bank World Development Indicators data (updated April 2014); KPMG Demographics

4 We are an urban people with city-based jobs and interests Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and 2012 DARWIN BRISBANE PERTH SYDNEY CANBERRA Winners 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and Losers a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG ADELAIDE MELBOURNE HOBART

5 New South Wales is gathering pace 160,000 Bicentennial Year Sydney Olympics Big Australia 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000-60, Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration Components of population growth in New South Wales between 1982 and 2013

6 Australia s tribal composition is shifting from an Anglo base to a fusion culture Country of Birth 2011 United Kingdom 1,101,100 New Zealand 483,400 China 319,000 India 295,400 Italy 185,400 Vietnam 185,000 Philippines 171,200 South Africa 145,700 Malaysia 116,200 Germany 108, % change 1,038,200 6% 389,500 24% 206,600 54% 147, % 199,100-7% 159,800 16% 120,500 42% 104,100 40% 92,300 26% 106,500 1% Top 10 ethnicities in Australia at the 2011 and 2006 Censuses

7 New acronyms for the new tribes of Australia PUMCINS. Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice Suburbs NETTELs Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life KIPPERS Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings LOMBARDs Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead Source: KPMG Demographics

8 Non-English speaking migrants cluster in different Sydney suburbs 1. United Kingdom (182k) Manly 16% Fairlight 15% Queenscliff 14% 2. China (149k) Hurstville 36% Rhodes 28% Burwood 28% 3. India (88k) Harris Park 43% Westmead 32% Parramatta 24% 4. New Zealand (85k) Emerton 8% Claymore 8% Tregear 6% 5. Vietnam (70k) Cabramatta 35% Canley Vale 29% Cabramatta West 28% 6. Philippines (63k) Woodcroft 24% Plumpton 19% Rooty Hill 18% 7. Italy (42k) Haberfield 15% Wareemba 13% Austral 13% 8. South Africa (34k) Dover Heights 15% St Ives Chase 12% St Ives 12% 9. Malaysia (25k) Kingsford 4% Kensington 3% Macquarie Park 3% Per cent concentration of selected nationalities in Sydney suburbs at the 2011 Census

9 Sydney is a patchwork of communities Median Weekly Family Income* Longueville $3,240 Kurraba Point $3,070 Birchgrove $3,060 McMahons Point $3,010 Point Piper $3,010 Darling Point $3,000 Castlecrag $2,990 Rozelle $2,920 Milsons Point $2,920 Claymore $640 Australian avg. $1, (Investors) * Macquarie Links 31% Windsor Downs 29% Barden Ridge 28% Woronora Heights 28% Voyager Point 28% East Kurrajong 27% Alfords Point 27% Clontarf 27% Bella Vista 27% Haymarket 8% Australian avg. 21% Belief * Horsley Park 97% Mount Lewis 96% Mount Vernon 96% Greenacre 95% Old Guildford 95% West Hoxton 95% Bossley Park 95% South Granville 95% Abbotsbury 95% Darlington 43% Australian avg. 75% Per cent comparison of selected social indicators in Sydney at the 2011 Census * Excludes suburbs with total population less than 1,000

10 It is lifestyle, resources and commuting that drives population growth 10.0 Ellenbrook Broome Karratha Perth Darwin Melbourne Brisbane Sydney Canberra/ Queanbeyan Adelaide Hobart New South Wales Moe-Newborough Burnie-Wynyard Parkes Ellenbrook Broome Karratha Melton Torquay Bacchus Marsh Emerald Busselton Gladstone - Tannum Sands Perth Bunbury Geraldton Highfields Yeppoon Darwin Cessnock Townsville Mackay Warragul - Drouin Port Hedland Kalgoorlie - Boulder Melbourne Albany Warwick Rockhampton Brisbane Gold Coast - Tweed Heads Sunshine Coast Cairns Bathurst Ocean Grove - Point Lonsdale Morisset - Cooranbong Sydney Ballarat Orange Bendigo Murray Bridge St Georges Basin - Sanctuary Point Drysdale - Clifton Springs Canberra - Queanbeyan Mount Isa Toowoomba Albury - Wodonga Tamworth Gympie Gisborne - Macedon Geelong Nelson Bay - Corlette Victor Harbor - Goolwa Goulburn Hervey Bay Bowral - Mittagong Newcastle - Maitland Wollongong Mildura - Wentworth Dubbo Echuca - Moama Adelaide Coffs Harbour Wagga Wagga Maryborough Ballina Port Augusta Shepparton - Mooroopna Port Macquarie Warrnambool Forster - Tuncurry Kurri Kurri - Weston Central Coast Port Lincoln Sale Muswellbrook Bundaberg Mount Gambier Armidale Griffith Batemans Bay Lithgow Hobart Alice Springs Taree Wangaratta Horsham Bairnsdale Lismore Ulladulla Port Pirie Launceston Nowra - Bomaderry Ulverstone Colac Traralgon - Morwell Devonport Singleton Whyalla Broken Hill Camden Haven Parkes Burnie - Wynyard Moe - Newborough Percentage growth in population over 12 months to June 2013 for the 100 largest significant urban areas (SUA) in Australia

11 Demand for financial services product is shaped by changes in the Australian demographic profile : 3.4 million (19.7m to 23.1m) : 4.2 million (23.1m to 27.3m) 500, , , , ,000 Kids & teenagers School fees College fund Young adults Mortgages Household formation Mature adults Financial planning Investments Active retirees Succession planning High yield products 250, , , ,000 50, Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2013 and 10 years to 2023

12 Australians are dividing the lifecycle into thirds The Boomer Trajectory 92 Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old Child Teen Adult Old Child Adult Old Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia

13 From Boomers to Xers and Ys and finally to Zeds Born Today Hierarchical Indulged their children Raised by Depression parents Sandwich generation Born Today Forgotten generation Wrong place at the wrong time No workplace guilt Angsty about Ys Born Today Special bubble-wrap Chaotic connection Entrepreneurials and dreamers Disappointed generation? Born Today 0 13 Parents results-orientated Youth in straitened times Highly educated, global The pragmatists the fixers

14 Australia might benefit from rise of The Dubai Effect London Moscow New York Dubai Shanghai Hong Kong Singapore Sydney Source: KPMG Demographics

15 Common themes in the corporate world and in the community Corporate 1. More for Less customers want you to deliver more and to pay you less 2. Competition from left field often associated with new technology 3. Globalisation new players discovering Australia Community 1. Celebration of the individual rights, entitlements minorities 2. Loss of faith in institutions church, unions, big business, politicians, not sure about public sector 3. Consequential rise of the need for transparency, accountability, apology and regulation Source: KPMG Demographics

16 Introducing Sydney s bachelor hotspot Lakemba 2.53:1 Woollahra 1.44:1 Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged at the 2011 Census

17 Connect bsalt@kpmg.com.au #bernardsalt Bernard Salt Demographer