Monthly Fuel Price Report June 2015

Transcription

1 Monthly Fuel Price Report June 15 2 July 15 The RACQ monthly fuel price report presents a summary of the fuel price trends in Queensland for June 15. Key points ULP sold in Brisbane was more expensive than all the other state and territory capitals. The average price of ULP in Brisbane was 144.cpl in June (6.6cpl higher than May). Brisbane was 9.5cpl dearer than Darwin, 5.9cpl dearer than Perth and 5.5cpl dearer than Melbourne. The Brisbane ULP price exceeded prices in the remaining capitals by up to 5cpl. The diesel price in Brisbane was 132.1cpl, 1.cpl higher than May. Melbourne was 4.8cpl cheaper than Brisbane, Sydney was 1.5cpl cheaper and Adelaide was 1.3cpl cheaper. ers in Ayr and Moranbah had the cheapest ULP (12.4cpl and 1.5cpl cheaper than Brisbane, respectively). Ayr was also the cheapest for Diesel, 3.1cpl cheaper than Brisbane. The average price of LPG in Brisbane in June was 66.5cpl, 1.1cpl lower than May. However, the ex-tax price difference between retail LPG (in Brisbane) and the benchmark price was 22.2cpl, 2.6 greater than May. Indicative refiner margins for ULP reached 14.4cpl, almost 1 cents greater than the longterm average of 4.9cpl and exceeding the previous record high of 9.9cpl. ULP prices and margins in Brisbane The average price of ULP in June 15 increased by 6.6cpl to 144.cpl and the Terminal Gate Price (TGP) increased by 3.cpl. Indicative retail margins for June 15, at 12.6cpl, were 3.6cpl greater than May, and total margins, at 33.8cpl, were 6.4cpl higher. Date ULP Price TGP Brent Crude Oil Singapore MOGAS Price Exchange Rate (A$/US$) Margin The chart below shows the cost breakdown for a litre of ULP sold in Brisbane across June. Total Margin Jun May Apr Q Jun Jun Jun Jun nd nd /6/15 3/6/15 5/6/15 7/6/15 9/6/15 11/6/15 13/6/15 15/6/15 17/6/15 19/6/15 21/6/15 23/6/15 25/6/15 27/6/15 29/6/15 Margin Wholesale Margin Refiner Margin Distribution Costs Excise and GST Brent Crude Page 1 of 5

2 There was a substantial increase in total margins in June, 33.8cpl compared to 27.4cpl average in May and 21.6cpl average in June 14. Total margins include margins enjoyed by the refiners, the wholesalers and the retailers. Historically retailer margins have been the largest, with wholesaler margins slightly lower and refiner margins substantially lower. RACQ uses a model to calculate indicative margins at these three points of the petrol value chain. In 14 in the Brisbane ULP market, average retail margins were 9.2cpl, average wholesale margins were 7.2cpl and refiner margins were 4.9cpl. In June 15 average retail margins were 12.6cpl, average wholesale margins were 7.2cpl and refiner margins were 14.1cpl. These refiner margins are the highest recorded in Brisbane, and substantially higher than the previous record of 9.9cpl observed in March 15. The recent increase in refiner margins can be observed in the chart below. The solid red line shows the 3-day rolling average of the indicative retail margin (with the daily prices shown as the dashed red line) and the purple line shows the indicative refiner margin /3/14 2/4/14 Price cycles 2/5/14 2/6/14 2/7/14 2/8/14 There was one complete and one partial price cycle observed in June 15. The first cycle started on 3 June, the average price then peaked on 6 June and fell to a low point on 23 June. The second cycle started on 24 June and price peaked on 26 June. At the time of writing Brisbane ULP prices were slowly falling. The Brisbane cycle has been stable at 21 or 22 days long for several months. Diesel prices in Brisbane 2/9/14 2/1/14 2/11/14 2/12/14 The average price of diesel increased by 1.cpl to 132.1cpl in June. The TGP increased by.1cpl, and indicative retail margins increased by.9cpl. Date Diesel Price TGP Price 2/1/15 Brent Crude Oil 2/2/15 2/3/15 2/4/15 Singapore Gasoil Price 2/5/15 2/6/15 Margin margin Refiner margin 3-day rolling average (retail margins) Total Margin Jun May Apr Q Jun Jun Jun Jun nd nd Page 2 of 5

3 Comparison to other capital cities In June 15, ULP sold in Brisbane was more expensive than all the other state and territory capitals. Indicative retail margins in Brisbane were greater than all the other capitals. Darwin was the cheapest capital, 9.5cpl cheaper than Brisbane. Perth was 5.9cpl cheaper than Brisbane, Melbourne was 5.5 cheaper, Adelaide was 3.9cpl cheaper, Sydney was 2.8cpl cheaper, Canberra was 1.8cpl cheaper, and Hobart was 1.2cpl cheaper than Brisbane. The table below presents the average June prices and retail margins on ULP and diesel for Australia s capital cities, with the change compared to May in parentheses. City ULP Price ULP Margin* Diesel Price Diesel Margin* Adelaide 14.1 (3.7) 9.4 (.8) 13.8 (2.2) 5.7 (2.1) Brisbane 144. (6.6) 12.6 (3.6) (1.) 7.2 (.9) Canberra (4.1) 1.8 (1.1) (4.6) 9.3 (4.5) Darwin (-1.5) 4.7 (.2) (.4) 9.2 (.4) Hobart (2.2) 6.6 (-.8) (2.7) 11.3 (2.6) Melbourne (5.5) 7.7 (2.6) (.9) 2.3 (.4) Perth (2.7) 7.4 (-.1) (1.1) 11.6 (.7) Sydney (4.8) 9.7 (1.8) 13.6 (1.3) 5.3 (1.2) * The retail margin is the average retail price minus the average local TGP and local freight costs (assumed to be the same as Brisbane: 1.12cpl). The TGP varies between cities. The price of diesel in Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide was cheaper than Brisbane; the other capitals were more expensive. Diesel sold in Melbourne was 4.8cpl cheaper than Brisbane, Sydney was 1.5cpl cheaper and Adelaide was 1.3cpl cheaper. Fuel prices across Queensland Ayr and Moranbah had Queensland s cheapest ULP in June 15, 12.4cpl and 1.5cpl cheaper than Brisbane, respectively. Charleville, Maryborough, Toowoomba, Sunshine Coast, Gympie, Dalby, Innisfail, Kingaroy, Gold Coast, Childers and Emerald were all cheaper than Brisbane. The large number of cheap regional centres was due to the lag in regional retail price movements compared to changes in the oil price and TGP. Ayr had the cheapest diesel in Queensland (3.1cpl cheaper than Brisbane), followed by Ipswich (1.8cpl cheaper), the Sunshine Coast (1.1cpl cheaper) and the Gold Coast (.1cpl cheaper than Brisbane). All the other centres were most expensive compared to Brisbane. The table below presents the average June 15 prices and retail margins on ULP and diesel for Queensland localities, with the change compared to May 15 in parentheses. Locality ULP Price Indicative ULP Margin* Diesel Price Indicative Diesel Margin* Brisbane 144. (6.6) 12.6 (3.1) (1.) 7.2 (.9) Gold Coast (6.1) 1.6 (2.6) 132. (1.1) 6.7 (1.) Sunshine Coast (6.2) 7. (2.7) 131. (1.5) 4.9 (1.3) Ayr (-.4) -3.5 (-3.1) 129. (1.) 1.3 (1.) Biloela (1.3) 9.4 (-1.5) (5.6) 1.1 (5.5) Blackall (1.9) nd (3.) nd Blackwater (5.7) 8.8 (2.9) 135. (4.5) 5.2 (4.4) Bowen (4.8) 1.6 (2.2) (4.8) 9.2 (4.8) Bundaberg (5.6) 1.8 (2.2) (4.6) 6.4 (4.5) Cairns (4.3) 13.1 (2.2) (.7) 14.3 (.6) Charleville (2.) -3.7 (-1.5) (5.6) 1.6 (5.5) Charters Towers (5.7) 11.1 (3.) (3.8) 1.7 (3.7) Page 3 of 5

4 Childers (4.4) nd 134. (2.6) nd Cloncurry 15.9 (5.2) 1. (2.5) (3.3) 12.8 (3.2) Dalby 14. (6.4) 7. (2.9) 136. (6.2) 9.6 (6.1) Emerald (4.7) 7.7 (2.) (5.8) 7.1 (5.7) Gladstone (4.) 1.2 (1.2) (4.2) 8.8 (4.1) Goondiwindi 146. (7.) 1.5 (3.5) (3.3) 8.3 (3.2) Gympie (5.3) 7.1 (1.8) (2.6) 9.5 (2.5) Hervey Bay 144. (3.6) 1.8 (.1) (3.3) 11.7 (3.2) Ingham (6.) nd (5.6) nd Innisfail 141. (6.2) 6.7 (4.2) (4.5) 9.6 (4.5) Ipswich (6.1) 12.4 (2.6) 13.3 (.4) 4.9 (.3) Kingaroy 142. (5.6) 8. (2.1) (3.9) 8. (3.8) Longreach (3.6) 6.9 (.9) (3.3) 1.9 (3.2) Mackay (7.6) 1.9 (5.1) 137. (5.2) 1.5 (5.1) Mareeba (3.6) 9.8 (1.5) 138. (-.2) 9.6 (-.2) Maryborough (3.3) 3.8 (-.2) (1.9) 6.6 (1.8) Miles nd nd 14.7 (5.7) nd Moranbah (4.7) -3.9 (2.2) (3.3) 4.7 (3.2) Mount Isa (4.8) 5.4 (2.1) 14.8 (1.8) 6.5 (1.7) Rockhampton (6.) 12.3 (3.2) (5.8) 9.7 (5.7) Roma (4.3) 9.6 (.8) (-2.9) 5.4 (-3.) Toowoomba (5.8) 6.4 (2.3) (4.) 12.2 (3.9) Townsville (5.7) 11.9 (3.) (5.) 11.2 (4.9) Warwick nd nd (4.1) 7.5 (3.9) Yeppoon 147. (7.7) 11.5 (5.) nd nd * The retail margin is the average retail price minus the average local TGP and local freight costs. The TGP and freight costs vary between cities. This indicative margin is calculated on the monthly average TGP and retail price. A time lag is not included in this calculation. Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) The average price of LPG in Brisbane fell by.2cpl in June 15 to 66.5cpl. The average difference between the Brisbane retail LPG price (excluding excise and GST) and the international benchmark price the Saudi Aramco Contract Price (the Saudi CP) in June 15 was 22.2cpl, 3.7cpl greater than in May. This was due to a fall in the Saudi CP not being passed on to consumers. Fuel companies decided to increase their margins rather than reducing the retail price. The chart below displays the retail price of LPG in Brisbane (the blue line) and Saudi CP (the red line) for the past six months /6/15 18/6/15 11/6/15 4/6/15 28/5/15 21/5/15 14/5/15 7/5/15 3/4/15 23/4/15 16/4/15 9/4/15 2/4/15 26/3/15 19/3/15 12/3/15 5/3/15 26/2/15 19/2/15 12/2/15 5/2/15 29/1/15 22/1/15 15/1/15 8/1/15 1/1/15 LPG Saudi CP Page 4 of 5

5 The Saudi CP for July is 27.5cpl,.2cpl lower than June, and one of the lowest contract prices since December 8. In December 8 the Saudi CP fell to a local low of 27.2cpl. Prior to December 8, LPG was last this cheap in July 5. Global trends, oil price and the benchmark petrol price Following the six-year record low observed in January (A$61.8/bbl monthly average and a daily price of A$57.7/bbl or US$46.7/bbl), the price of Brent crude oil in Australian dollars steadily increased, peaking in late May. Brent started June at A$85.7/bbl (US$65.6/bbl), and ended the month lower at A$8.7/bbl (US$62./bbl). While the Brent rose and fell during June it traded within a tight range of A$8 to A$86 per barrel. The price of MOGAS was high relative to the oil price. This elevated price difference is reflected in the higher refiner margins observed in Australia. The graph below displays the average Brisbane retail (the blue line) and TGP (the red line) prices, the daily Brent crude oil price (the orange line), the weekly Tapis crude oil (the green line) the weekly MOGAS price (the purple line) and the US$/A$ exchange rate (the teal line) for the past six months. The ULP retail and wholesale, Brent, Tapis and Singapore wholesale MOGAS prices are plotted against the left axis in cents per litre (A$) and the exchange rate is plotted against the righthand axis in A$ per US$ Outlook 25/6/15 18/6/15 11/6/15 4/6/15 28/5/15 21/5/15 14/5/15 7/5/15 3/4/15 23/4/15 16/4/15 9/4/15 2/4/15 26/3/15 19/3/15 12/3/15 5/3/15 26/2/15 19/2/15 12/2/15 5/2/15 29/1/15 22/1/15 15/1/15 8/1/15 1/1/ ULP TGP ULP Brent Crude Tapis Crude MOGAS US$/AU$ Exchange Rate The price of Brent was relatively stable in June, trading in the mid to low US$6 range, and is likely to continue to do so in July. Market conditions remain unchanged. In their June meeting OPEC decided to maintain current production levels at 3 million barrels per day. Production continues to exceed demand, the International Energy Association recently estimated that production exceed demand by 2 million barrels per day. The next monthly fuel price report will be released in early July. For more information about recent movements in retail fuel prices, please view RACQ s Fair Fuel Price service at Data sources All data presented in this report are RACQ calculations using MotorMouth.com.au, FUELtrac, RBA, ATO, AIP, Bloomberg.com, BP, Viva Energy, Caltex, Mobil, United, Freedom and Puma data. Page 5 of 5