Active ATM Performance Management

Transcription

1 Active ATM Performance Management Rapporteur: Wim Post (Co-Chairs: Mark Hansen / Christoph Meier) 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 1

2 This presentation: I do not pretend to be able to summarise the essence of 10 papers in 20 minutes so that you would be fully informed. It should get at least some of you to read some of the papers presented in this track even if you did not attend the presentation. Adds a bit of context around the theme of ATM performance management. 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 2

3 Baltimore July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 3

4 Active ATM Performance Management The call for papers: all elements of performance driven process management in the future ATM system respectively ATM business areas by means of forecasting, monitoring, controlling and optimising safety, efficiency, punctuality, cost effectiveness and environmental impacts of air transportation; assessment and mitigation of uncertainties; requirements and benefits of predictive versus reactive management of uncertainties; probabilistic and deterministic forecasting models and learning functions; uncertainty and performance assimilated decision making. What have you missed? 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 4

5 Paper 94: 5 Years ATM Cost Benchmarking European system average: Gate-to-gate ATM/CNS Belgocontrol LVNL Aena ATSA Bulgaria ENAV ROMATSA DFS NAV Portugal (FIR Lisboa) NATS MK CAA Skyguide LPS NATA Albania DSNA Austro Control Oro Navigacija Slovenia Control UkSATSE ANS CR Croatia Control MoldATSA DCAC Cyprus DHMI NAVIAIR MATS Finavia IAA Avinor HCAA PPL/PATA ANS Sweden HungaroControl MUAC LGS EANS per composite flight-hour Factual indicator: cannot be interpreted as a measure of cost-inefficiency 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 5

6 Paper 62: Estimating capacity requirements A. Unmodified demand growth B. Combine flight with bigger aircraft C. Divert hub passengers to satellite airports with smaller aircraft Hub Satellite D. Divert connecting hub passengers to direct flights with bigger aircraft Hub Arrival airport 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 6

7 Paper 145: Evaluating NextGen performance Average Delay/Flight Baseline: Current system + OEP improvements, # flights set at delay threshold for worst-case weather Increase flights until worst-case delays reach an intolerable level then... Compute the delay reduction with NextGen improvements 0 Number of Flights 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 7

8 Paper 111: Delay Propagation case studies Slope value (unitless) Break time (hour) Case Study: LaGuardia 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 8

9 Paper 27: stochastic model to estimate ROTA Runway operations affect overall Airport Capacity Exit taxiway usage Taxi flows Number of CONFLICTS Taxi time & Number and Location of potential conflicts DELAY X CAPACITY Runway Occupancy Times (ROTs) Separation between operations (ICAO DOC and 7.9.1) & Local regulations Minimum Separations Number of GO-AROUNDS 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 9

10 Paper 121:Calibrating aggregate Cancellation & Delay models Number of cancellations Predicted Observed Arrival delay (minutes) Predicted Observed Offset predicted Hour Sept. 15 th, 2004, ATL Hour Feb. 2004, ATL 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 10

11 Paper 52: Airspace complexity measurement Mean Complexity Complexity model c Actual Ratings Aircraft count model Aircraft Count Complexity model tracks actual complexity ratings better than aircraft count model 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 11

12 Paper 61: Validation of RSP Accuracy 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 12

13 Paper 24:National Weather Index for NAS Performance Assessment NWX is a weighted sum of three components: En-route Component (E-WITI) reflecting impact of convective weather on major airports e.g. OEP- 35 airports Terminal Component (T-WITI) for same airports: local weather impact Queuing Delay Component for same airports reflecting excess traffic demand vs. capacity Hourly Demand, Estimated Capacity, and Delay Queuing Delay Modeled by Wx Index Software, PHL, Dec 14, Optimum capacity in good Wx Actual queuing delays at PHL on 12/14/06 were significant (223 flights delayed > 15 min) and there were approx. 100 cancellations (so the resulting queuing delay was less than it could have been if there were no cancellations) 0600Z Dec Z Dec 15, Hourly Wx Observations RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN NONE NONE LGT_RAIN RAIN Dep+Arr demand Dep+Arr capacity Queuing Delay, Hrs 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 13

14 Paper 163: Evaluating NAS performance by Wx Normalization 100% 80% 60% 40% Taxi-in En-route Taxi-out Departure delay 20% 0% -20% Scheduled arrivals WITI mean Wind IFR Forecast error 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 14

15 Performance Management Process (Source: ICAO ATMRPP) P163 P24 P121 P94 6. Assess Achievement of Objectives 1. Review Scope, Context & General Expectations 5. Implement Solutions 2. Identify Opportunities, Issues & Set (new) Objectives P111 P52 P27 P Select Solutions to Exploit Opportunities & Resolve Issues 3. Quantify Objectives P62 P61 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 15

16 No Questions Please. Ask the authors! 05 July 2007 ATM2007 Barcelona 16