Newsletter Economic and Commercial. Economic activity in June 2012

Transcription

1 September 2012 Newsletter Economic and Commercial Contents Official figures 1-3 Trade 4 Bilateral Trade 5 Events 6-7 Official figures Economic activity in June 2012 According to the latest Economic Activity Monthly Estimate (EMAE) released by INDEC (the National Statistics Institute), economic activity posted a growth of 1.1% in June compared with May (seasonally adjusted). In contrast, compared with June 2011, economic activity showed no change. Overall, the accumulated growth in the last 12 months has reached 2.5%. (EMAE shows the progress of economic activity on a monthly basis while GDP figures are released quarterly). INDEC s provisional estimate of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the first quarter of 2012 shows a growth of 5.2% compared with the same quarter of 2011 and of 0.9 % (seasonally adjusted) compared with the previous quarter. In particular, production of goods increased by 3.2% while services grew by 6.5% year-on-year. EMAE: A year at a glance Monthly Annual % change % change July % 9.0 % Aug % 10.1 % Sep % 8.9 % Oct % 9.1 % Nov % 7.3 % Dec % 5.6 % Jan % 6.1 % Feb % 5.6% Mar % 4.1% Apr % 0.6% May % -0.5% June % 0.0% GDP growth of 5.2% in first quarter 2012 % GDP Annual Change by Quarter Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Source: INDEC

2 Page 2 Industrial activity in July 2012 INDEC s Industrial Monthly Estimate (EMI) showed a growth of 1.4% in July 2012, with respect to June 2012 (all figures seasonally adjusted). The accumulated industrial growth in the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2011 was measured at - 1.2%. A sector analysis shows that almost all sectors grew during the period. Due to the ongoing international financial crisis and a significant slowdown in Argentina s leading export markets, other sectors that performed exceptionally well recently recorded moderate falls of up to 18%, in some cases. For instance, metallic industries fell by 18.4% in July, while the Textile and Chemical sector fell by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively during the same month. The slump in figures observed in recent months is expected to be short-lived. A recovery is forecasted for the second half of the year, owed to a boost in domestic demand. Industrial activity change by sector (July) Official figures Sector Food and beverages Monthly Change y.o.y. Change Tobacco Textiles Paper and cardboard Printing Oil refining Chemical Rubber and plastics Non-metallic minerals Metallic industries Motor industry Other metalmechanical ind % EMI (monthly change) Source: INDEC

3 Page 3 July tax collection up by 28.2% The Ministry of Economy and the Federal Agency of Public Revenue (AFIP) announced that June s total public revenue was 67.6 bn pesos, while net tax collection (meaning what AFIP collects for public sector spending) increased by 28.2% (y.o.y), reaching 61.3 bn (approximately US$ 13 bn). Significant growth was recorded for all revenue sources: Income Tax increased by 26.7%, Social Security Contributions by 30.9%, VAT by 17.6%, Customs Duties by 43.0% and Taxes on Debits and Credits by 9.0%. Official figures ARS Net Tax Collection (billion ARS) % Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Unemployment at 7.2% in the second quarter 2012 According to INDEC s Permanent Households Survey (EPH), which is conducted in 31 major cities throughout the country, urban unemployment in the second quarter of 2012 was measured at 7.2%. This figure shows a minor fall compared with the same quarter of 2011 (7.3%). The employment rate was measured at 42.8%, while activity level was recorded at 46.2%, both figures marginally down compared with the same period of July inflation rate at 0.8% The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for the city of Buenos Aires and its metropolitan area showed an increase of 0.8% in July 2012, accumulating a 9.9% rate to the year from July The Whole- sale Prices Index increased by 1.0% and the Construction Costs Index by 1.3% during the same month, according to INDEC.

4 Page 4 Trade Trade report in July According to INDEC s latest report, the trade surplus in July was US$ 1.0 bn, representing a growth of 54% compared with the same period of Exports totalled US$ 7.4 bn (representing a y.o.y increase of 1%), while imports amounted to US$ 6.3 bn (posting a y.o.y decrease of 4.2%). On the exports side, the largest growths were recorded in cereals, chemical products and derivates, precious metals, coins and fresh fruits. On the imports side, decreases were in all sectors mainly recorded in parts and accessories for motors, generators, generating sets and rotary converters, gearboxes, reciprocating piston engines, turbine engines and displays for portable microcomputers. The accumulated trade surplus growth in the first seven months of the year compared with the same period in 2011 was measured at 29%. Exports totaled US$ 47 bn, while imports amounted to US$ 38 bn. Argentine exports to Mercosur countries fell by 4% while imports from the bloc decreased by 19% compared with July The trade balance with Mercosur was positive, amounting to US$ 43 million. Trade with Asia Pacific countries (including China, Japan, Korea, India and South East Asian countries) ranked second, with a positive balance for Argentina of US$ 168 million, with exports increasing 20% and imports by 8% compared with July Trade with the EU (Argentina s third largest trade partner in July) showed a deficit of US$ 28 million, with exports falling by 4% and imports 30% higher compared with July Finally, trade with NAFTA showed a negative balance of US$ 254 million, with exports falling by 20% and imports 11% higher compared with July 2011.

5 Page 5 Bilateral Trade Bilateral Trade INDEC s last report on Argentina s foreign sector indicates that trade with the UK totaled US$ 679 million in the first 7 months of This represents a 2.1% decrease from the same period on Argentina s exports to the UK during this period amounted to U$S 425 million, down 6.2% from Similarly, imports from the UK were recorded at U$S 361 million, decreasing 1.0% when compared to the first seven months of The trade balance with the UK for the same period showed a surplus of U$S 64 million for Argentina, posting a 27.6% yearly decrease from Main exports from Argentina to the UK are (in decreasing order of importance): soybean pellets, legumes and fruits (tangerines, lemons, apples and pears), corn, wine, chemicals, sunflower meal and pellets, oil seeds, nuts, beef, honey, boilers and other mechanical parts, etc. Main imports from the UK are: gas oil and fuel oil, gross palladium, precious metals, drugs, newsprint in rolls or sheets, drilling machines to open tunnels or galleries and cars and parts, etc. Argentina - UK Bilateral Trade 1,600 1,400 1,200 Millions 1, (est.) Imports from UK Exports to UK

6 Page 6 Taste of London 2012 Events For the second year running, The Argentine Embassy was present at Taste of London, the most important gastronomic fair in London. From 21 to 24 June, a vast number of people were attracted by around 9 Argentine restaurants and were able to taste Argentine steak, empanadas, locro and other delicatessen at the Argentine Pavilion and the Argentine Tourism Board hosted Argentine mate tasting sessions. Also, there were a number of wine merchants tasting Argentine wines and Quilmes, the Argentine beer producer, tasted beer to visitors. This year, the Argentine stand had a prime location, which gave the best context for a tango show each of the 4 days of the event. Agriculture Investment Summit From 26 to 28 June, the Argentine Embassy was present with a stand at the 5th Annual Agriculture Investment Summit, showcased at the Victoria Parl Plaza Hotel, London. On the 26th, the Argentine Embassy sponsored a reception with a Tango show, as well as Argentine wines and beef tasting.

7 Page 7 Argentine Village 2012 Events The Embassy has been present once again during the British polo season with the Argentine Village. This year, the Village was deployed at Polo in the Park (8-10 June) and Veuve Clicquot Gold Cup Finals (15 July), in both occasions joined by Aerolíneas Argentinas. Polo in the Park was played at Hurlingham Park, Fulham (London), between 6 teams (Camino Real Team Buenos Aires, City AM Team Delhi, Mandarin Oriental Hyde Park Team Abu Dhabi, Mint Team Londres, IG Index Team Sydney y Otkritie Team Moscú ), within which there were 5 Argentine polo payers (Oscar Mancini, Matías Machado, Tomás Ruíz Guiñazú, Rodrigo Rueda y Andrea Vianini),the attendance was of around people (according to our own estimations). Among the 45 retailers there were Argentine companies such as Estribos, Kevingston and La Martina, and as it is the custom, the Argentine Embassy provided advice on tourism in Argentina and gave away leaflets including maps and useful information for people aiming at travelling to and within Argentina. On the other hand, Veuve Clicquot Gold Cup Finals took place at Cowdray Park Polo Club, Midhurst (West Sussex), between El Remanso and Cortium (counting 3 Argentine polo payers within them: Guillermo Terrera, Francisco Elizalde y Polito Pieres), and was attended by around people (according to our own estimations); among the 45 retailers there were Argentine companies such as Estribos, Kevingston La Martina and La Tarde; the Argentine Embassy provided advice on tourism in Argentina and gave away tourism leaflets, including those of Hotel Llao Llao, located in San Carlos de Bariloche. Additionally, the Embassy exhibited in this opportunity handcrafts made by Argentine craftsmen grouped in a project developed by the Argentine Ministry of Social Development called Emprendedores de Nuestra Tierra ( Entrepreneurs of Our Land ), regarded by the public as high-quality crafts.