Connec&ng Helsinki and Tallinn: Fixed link in a wider regional perspec&ve

Transcription

1 Connec&ng Helsinki and Tallinn: Fixed link in a wider regional perspec&ve

2 Centre of Bal?c Sea? Helsinki 1,6 mln Stockholm 2,3 mln Tallinn O,5 mln Saint Petersburg 5 mln Riga 1,2 mln

3 Where are we? EUROPE Time-Space Spiekermann, K., Wegener, M. (1994) Part-financed b European Union

4 Time-Space AD 1993 Spiekermann, K., Wegener, M. (1994)

5 Time-Space AD 1993 Spiekermann, K., Wegener, M. (1994)

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10 Rail Bal?c 728 km from Tallinn to Lithuania - Poland border Travel?me 4,1 h (lixle over 6 h to Warsaw) 1435 European gauge Top speed 240 km/ h Cost 3,6 b EUR Opera?ng 2025

11 First Tallinn-Helsinki fixed link

12 Hopes for twin city 150 min

13 Hopes for twin city 30 min

14 Tallinn-Helsinki Tunnel

15 Tallinn-Helsinki Tunnel Pre-feasibility study of Helsinki Tallinn fixed link

16 Investments and financing Ülemiste - Pasila railway line (90 km) Connected to Rail Bal?c. INVEST. FINANCE Services: passengers-, freight-, cars- and trucks trains. Passenger train travel?me: up to 30 minutes >> targe?ng daily commu?ng. DEBT 6,6 beur Truck terminals at Muuga and Riihimäki. Connec?ons to airport and Tampere considered in Finland. INVEST- MENTS 11 beur Investments incl. rolling stock 9-13 beur. At least 40% (EU, na?onal funds) needed, remaining financed by debt. GRANT ~40% = 4,4 beur

17 Costs and revenues Passengers today 7.9 million YEAR 10 CASH FLOWS (EXAMPLE) REVENUES= 870 OUTFLOW = 870 Tunnel passenger by 2042 (i.e. Y10): 25 thousand daily commuters and 11 million trips per year 5 million business and leisure trips 1.3 million passenger cars 8.4 million tons of cargo Service fees (2014 values, one way): Passenger?cket: 36 EUR Commuters discount 75% (Monthly card) Passenger car with passengers: 70 EUR Average truck: 450 EUR Debt repayment period years >> comparable to Öresund and Femern Belt Freight trains 120 MEUR Truck shuxle 290 MEUR Pass. cars 120 MEUR Passenger trains 340 MEUR Debt payments (interest + principal) 620 MEUR Train OPEX 180 MEUR Tunnel OPEX 70 MEUR

18 Economic impact Improved connection to Central-Europe >> 1-3% increase of Finnish GDP. Respective impact to Estonia: % (Spiekermann & Wegener 2013) Integrated labour market: shortage of 400 thousand in Finland by 2030 > easier access to Estonian labour or businesses moving to Estonia and new working places here. Potentially >20 thousand daily commuters (comparison with Öresund). New investments into City areas on both side of the GOF With Rail Baltic the hinterland for passengers up to Riga. Estonia/Tallinn gets fast access to Vantaa airport. Direct employment on construction and operating phase. Within 10y 1bn additional annual turnover to construction sector. General attractiveness of twin cities, new business models PASSENGER FLOW (MN) Min Med Max 18

19 Pre-Feasibility study results in brief 1. Func?onality and connec?on to current transport systems is priority n#1 2. Rail Bal?c must exist 3. Both Passengers and cargo are needed 4. Tunnel length 85 km and travel?me between ci?es 30 min fast connec?ons and short total travel?me make Fixed Link compe??ve. 5. Investment cost is 9-13 billion euros. Financial support from public sector (EU funds) would be needed about 40%. 6. Debt repayment period is years. 7. Remarkable economic impacts for Estonia and Finland: new investments into common metropolitan area, commu?ng, general axrac?veness of twin ci?es (Copenhagen-Malmö effect), new business models, direct and indirect employment on construc?on and opera?ng phase. 8. The fixed link traffic is assumed to triple in the first 10 years from 5 to 15 million trips and ferry transporta?on is expected to keep it s posi?on. 19

20 Finnish foreign trade

21 Finnish foreign trade When measured from Helsinki, only Estonia remains within the range of 300 km, which is regarded as a distance where the freight shipment will in a considerable extent remain on trucks also in the future. Railroad would be of high importance for longer distances, as of the transporta?on policy of EU.

22 Finnish export to Germany

23 23 Source: Finnish traffic agency, 2016 ja TAK, 2015 Tallinn-Helsinki Passengers

24 Private cars Lähde: Finnish Traffic Agency,

25 Reasons to travel 25 Source: Finnish Sta?s?cs, 2015 ja TAK, 2015

26 Commuting traffic 8,21 million trips in 2015 between Helsinki and Tallinn (Port of Tallinn) 2,1 million inhabitants in metropolitan regions (Uusimaa 1,59, Harju 0,56 ml)

27 Lorries and trucks 27 Lähde: Finnish Traffic Agency, 2016

28 Des?na?on of trucks (2005 & 2012) Source:Port of Helsinki, 2006:1; HSL 2012

29 Future? 29 Esitelmän pitäjän nimi

30 TALSINKI? LARGE CITY = CENTRE FOR MODERN ECONOMY Urban environment Support services Coopera?on clusters Technological infrastructure Business scale Large labour pool WHY NOT HELSINKI- TALLINN-RIGA? Tallinn not a[rac]ve to global ideas and talent flows

31 TALLINN-RIGA? Popula?on size and travel Helsinki: 1.6 million people Tallinn-Helsinki connec?on 2,5h 8,2 million trips by Ferry!!! Riga: 1,2 million people Today: Tallinn-Riga trip 4,5 h Tallinn- Riga connec?ons strong historic links similar cultures linked economies Improved coopera?on? urban considera?ons universi?es, science, R&D administra?ve coopera?on social networks 2025: Tallinn-Riga on Rail Bal?c 2h How many trips?

32 Hetkeolukord- reisiaja tsoonid: Reisiaeg Tulevikuvisioon reisiaja tsoonid Helsinki (Pasila) ja Tallinn) 2014 (0-2 tundi) Hämeenlinna Hämeenlinna 2,9 M milj. Turku Turku 1,7 milj. Lah? 1:00 2,7 M milj. 1:20 0:30 Riihimäki 0:30 Karjaa Pasila Salo Kirkkonummi 0,9 milj. Pärnu 1:50 1:00 Helsinki Tallinn 1:10 Tapa 1:45 Pasila Karjaa Tallinn 2:10 0:40 Riihimäki Tallinn 0,5 milj. Kouvola 1:00 Kotka Helsinki Kirkkonummi Lah? 0:40 Lappeenranta 1:15 Turku 1:00 1:15 Hämeenlinna 1:30 Salo Tampere Kouvola 0:45 Riihimäki 2:00 1:45 4,7 M milj. 1:30 30 min Tampere Mikkeli Tapa Tapa 2,3 milj. M 2,3 Viljandi Viljandi Tartu 2:10 0:30 Pärnu 0:50 Viljandi Tartu 1:45 Tartu 1 h Helsinkist 4,5milj. M 4,5 2 h Helsinkist Riga Eeldatav aeg (rong) 1 h Tallinnast 2 Tallinnast Riga 1:55 Põhineb: Ratahallintokeskus Stra selvityksiä 1/2009 Tulevaisuuden henkilöliikenneselvitys Rail Bal?ca

33 Source: Pre-feasibility study of Helsinki Tallinn fixed link (2015)

34 Finnish Estonian Transport Link (FinEst Link) - full scale feasibility study and assessment on regional impact of the Talsinki fixed link. The project focuses in wider Finnish-Estonian perspec?ve, European TEN-T perspec?ve, transport technology development, environmental aspects and in changing socio-economic context of the emerging twin-city region. Total Project Budget Partners: Helsinki - Uusimaa Regional Council City of Helsinki City of Tallinn Harju County Government Finnish Transport Authority Estonian Ministry of Transporta?on and Communica?on 3 4

35 Who needs Tallinn-Riga?

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37 Thank You! hxp://harju.maavalitsus.ee/talsinkifix Kaarel Kose adviser Harju County Government

38 Finnish-Estonian Transport Link Ini?a?ve Anne Berner - Finnish Minister of Transport and Communica?ons Kristen Michal - Estonian Minister of Economy and Communica?ons, Taavi Aas - Ac?ng Mayor of Tallinn Pekka Sauri Ac?ng Mayor of Helsinki Ossi Savolainen - Regional Mayor of Helsinki-Uusimaa Ülle Rajasalu - Harju County Governor 3 8

39 Finnish-Estonian Transport Link Ini?a?ve remove the Helsinki-Tallinn boxleneck of the North-Sea Bal?c TEN-T Corridor. synchronize the digital transport services between Helsinki and Tallinn support the implementa?on of a full feasibility study on the Finnish-Estonian Transport Fixed Link support pilots projects on smart digital transport services between Helsinki and Tallinn ac?vate Estonian-Finnish cross-border coopera?on enhanced mobility and digital interac?on support the integra?on of economies improve common labor markets to establish economic, social, cultural and educa?onal links and networks in order to intensify the mutually beneficial integra?on of the Finnish and Estonian socie?es twin-region of Tallinn-Helsinki has a poten?al of being one of the leading economic centres of Northern Europe. 3 9