DEVELOPMENT OF TRAFFIC VOLUMES IN BALTIC SEA

Transcription

1 DEVELOPMENT OF TRAFFIC VOLUMES IN BALTIC SEA Tõnis Segerkrantz

2 WINTER PERIOD PORT CALL DATA Real port call statistics were acquired from Finnish, Estonian and Russian maritime administrations and port authorities. Total port calls (two way voyage) were approximately pieces without scheduled passenger ships. Ship calls to the ports of the Baltic countries are following:! Finland!3872 calls! Estonia!2363 calls! Russia! 3844 calls! Total! calls Moreover there is quite much port calls of the scheduled passenger ships.

3 RUSSIAN PORTS IN STUDY AREA AND CARGO VOLUMES Port Tonnes Port of Primorsk 79,157,000 75,582,000 74,230,000 66,078,000 Port of St. Petersburg 50,406,000 60,008,000 59,519,000 54,230,000 Port of Vysotsk 17,318,000 15,369,000 16,527,000 13,811,000 Ust Luga Company JSC 10,358,000 6,763,000 7,143,000 3,766,000 Port of Vyborg 1,184,000 1,300,000 1,111,000 1,253,000

4 FINNISH PORTS IN STUDY AREA AND CARGO VOLUMES Port Tonnes Port of Kilpilahti 20,787,000 21,550,000 19,760,000 19,739,000 Port of Helsinki 9,770,000 11,861,000 13,431,000 11,728,000 Port of Kotka 7,532,000 11,621,000 10,590,000 9,577,000 Port of Naantali 7,250,000 8,720,000 8,510,000 7,147,000 Port of Hamina 3,557,000 4,612,000 5,876,000 5,181,000 Port of Turku 2,721,000 3,347,000 3,956,000 3,926,000 Port of Hanko 2,476,000 3,704,000 3,088,000 4,151,000 Port of Inkoo 1,276,000 1,822,000 2,074,000 1,891,000 Port of Loviisa 1,180, ,000 1,273,000 1,106,000 Port of Koverhar 897,000 1,466,000 1,401,000 1,412,000

5 ESTONIAN PORTS IN STUDY AREA AND CARGO VOLUMES Port Tonnes Port of Sillamäe 2,454,000 1,806,000 1,778, ,000 Port of Kunda 1,253,000 1,569,000 1,742,000 1,156,000 Port of Pärnu 1,328,000 1,247,000 1,362,000 1,357,000 Port of Tallinn (Muuga) 24,956,000 Port of Tallinn (Old City Harbour) 2,043,000 Port of Tallinn (Paljassaare) 755,000 Port of Tallinn (Paldiski) 3,792,000 Total Port of Tallinn 31,546,000 28,966,000 35,874,000 41,084,000 Miiduranna Harbour (Tallinn) 319, , ,000 1,734,000 Vene Balti Harbour (Tallinn) 508,000 1,041,000 1,730,000 2,064,000 Port of Bekkeri (Tallinn) 495, , ,000 Total Tallinn 32,868,000 30,973,000 39,037,000 44,882,000

6 DEVELOPMENT OF MARITIME TRANSPORT IN THE STUDY AREA The Institute of Shipping Analysis (Gothenburg, Sweden), BMT Transport Solutions GmbH (Hamburg, Germany) and Centre for Maritime Studies (Turku, Finland) published a study on sea transportation scenarios in the area of the Baltic Sea, which was part of Master Plan Study for development of the Motorways of the Baltic Sea. The Finnish Maritime Administration, Growth outlook of seaborne transport between Finland and foreign countries up to 2030 Forecasts for maritime transportation for the Russian ports in the Gulf of Finland vary from M tonnes in In the Transportation strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030 (The Ministry of Transportation of the Russian Federation 2008), the sea traffic in the ports of the Gulf of Finland is predicted to be 266 M tonnes in 2015, of which M tonnes of liquid bulk and M tonnes of dry cargoes. Based of the above mentioned forecasts and interviews of the port authorities, and port officials, the growth estimation of Finnish and Estonian ports has been forecasted to be 33% until the year 2015.

7 FORECASTED GROWTH OF THE CARGO VOLUMES tonnes Country Cargo volume Forecasted Forecasted in Baltic Sea growth volume ports Finland 93,716,000 30,926, ,642,280 Russia 170,785,000 54,651, ,436,200 Estonia 38,470,000 12,695,100 51,165,100

8 FORECAST FOR PORT OF TALLINN 50,000,000 37,500,000 25,000,000 12,500, Volume Liquid cargo Forecats volume Forecast liquid

9 Russian oil production M Barrels/day

10 Russian exports will grow by 1.7 times and Russian imports will double during this period The geography of Russian trade will change during the period because of the growth of the Asian region and the CIS markets compared with the developed markets in Europe and North America.

11 THE CHANGE IN RUSSIAN EXPORT & IMPORT According to CEFIR s forecast, the share in Russian exports to: Western Europe will drop from 47% to 43%, North America will remain at 5.5%, Asia and Oceania will grow from 13% to 15%. The biggest changes will occur in the export of low- and medium-tech goods, whose share of exports will grow from 25% to 29%. The analysis of the geography of Russian imports reveals a similar picture. The share of imports from Western Europe will drop from 50% to 43%, while of those from North America will remain practically unchanged at about 3%. Asia and Oceania will increase their share to almost 22%. The share of hi- tech goods in total imports will increase by 1.5 percentage points to 18.5%. CEFIR Centre for Economic and Financial Research at New Economic School

12 FORECASTED GROWTH OF THE SHIP CALLS IN RUSSIAN PORTS OF THE STUDY AREA Port Port calls 2009 Forecasted growth in port calls 2015 Port calls 2015 Add. port call after time period (min) 2015 Port of Primorsk ,389 Port of St. Petersburg 10,370 2,281 12, Port of Vysotsk ,982 Ust Luga Company JSC 260 1,227 1, Port of Vyborg ,618

13 FORECASTED GROWTH OF THE SHIP CALLS IN ESTONIAN PORTS OF THE STUDY AREA Port Port calls 2009 Forecastedforecasted growth in port calls 2015 Port calls 2015 Add. port call after time period (min) 2015 Port of Sillamäe ,492 Port of Kunda ,885 Port of Pärnu ,210 1,750 Port of Tallinn (Muuga) ,704 Port of Tallinn (Old City 1, , Harbour) Port of Tallinn (Paljassaare) 4,350 1,436 5, Port of Tallinn (Paldiski) ,273 Total Port of Tallinn 7,250 2,393 9, Miiduranna Harbour (Tallinn) ,545 Vene Balti Harbour (Tallinn) ,620 Port of Bekkeri (Tallinn) ,138 Total Tallinn 5,280 1,742 7,

14 FORECASTED GROWTH OF THE SHIP CALLS IN FINNISH PORTS OF THE STUDY AREA Port Port calls 2009 Forecasted growth in port calls 2015 Port calls 2015 Add. port call after time period (min) 2015 Port of Kilpilahti 1, ,503 1,409 Port of Helsinki 8,700 2,871 11, Port of Kotka 1, , Port of Naantali 1, , Port of Hamina 1, ,343 1,577 Port of Turku 2, , Port of Hanko 1, ,463 1,448 Port of Inkoo ,191 Port of Loviisa ,826 Port of Koverhar ,377