Baltic Port Market. BPO Conference Riga, RECIENT FACTS & FIGURES. dr Maciej Matczak

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1 Baltic Port Market RECIENT FACTS & FIGURES BPO Conference Riga,

2 Schedule TOTAL CARGO TURNOVER Trends of the last decade First half of 2015 preliminary results MAIN TYPES OF CARGO CONTAINERS PORTS & FLEET Future prospects & challenges economy & trade 2

3 Cargo turnover of the Baltic maritime ports in years ,0 800,0 700,0 600,0 4,7% 4,2% 3,4% 11,4% 4,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 500,0 400,0 0,5% 0,1% -0,6% -0,9% 0,0% 300,0-5,0% 200,0 100,0 0,0-10,0% -10,3% -15,0% BSR UE (m tons) Russia: Baltic (m tons) BSR growth (UE) BSR growth (total)

4 Development of the cargo turnover in the Baltic seaports in the first half of ,0% 5,0% 5,9% 5,3% 4,2% 2,9% 2,3% 2,0% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% Poland Lithuania Denmark (1Q) Baltic Germany (1Q) Russia Sweden Latvia Finland Estonia (Tallinn) -5,0% -7,7% -15,0% -20,0% -25,0% -20,7%

5 Top 20 of the Baltic maritime ports in the 1H 2015 (estimation) 45,0 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% -15,0% -20,0% -25,0% Turnover 1H 2015 (mt) Growth 1H 2015 (%)

6 Development of liquid cargo turnover in the Baltic maritime ports: ,0 140,0 120,0 100,0 80,0 60,0 133,8 61,2 Primorsk Ust-Luga Sköldvik Briofiorden Gothenburg Tallinn Ventspils St. Petersburg Gdańsk Vysotsk 22,4 21,3 19,2 18,9 15,6 14,3 12,5 12,2 53,7 50,0 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 0,0 29,5 28,8 26,0 25,8 16,3 15,2 Russia Sweden Finland Denmark Estonia Latvia Poland Lithuania Baltic Germany 4,

7 Development of dry bulk cargo turnover in the Baltic maritime ports: ,1 35,9 31,7 29,9 Riga 23,5 Ust-Luga 22,0 Klaipéda 17,0 Szczecin-Świnoujście 11,4 St. Petersburg 8,8 Gdańsk 8,6 Ventspils 8,0 Kokkola 7,7 Rostock 7,5 Luelå 7,0 28,7 26,6 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 17,0 14,6 Russia Finlad Latvia Denmark Sweden Poland Lithuania Baltic Germany 4,8 Estonia

8 Development of general cargo turnover in the Baltic maritime ports: ,9 St. Petersburg Gothenburg Lübeck Klaipéda Gdańsk Helsinki Trelleborg Gdynia Rostock Szczecin-Świnoujście 11,5 11,2 10,8 10,5 9,0 8,2 8,0 17,4 16,2 34, ,6 39,3 34,5 33,7 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40, , ,6 12,8 11,5 0 Sweden Russia Finland Baltic Germany Denmark Poland Latvia Estonia Lithuania

9 4,70 5,37 6,44 5,82 7,57 7,99 7,32 8,76 9,38 9,75 9,72 Container traffic in the Baltic seaports ,00 25,9% 30,0% 10,00 15,5% 14,3% 20,0% 17,4% 19,7% 20,0% 8,00 6,00 5,6% 7,1% 3,9% -0,3% 10,0% 0,0% 4,00-10,0% 2,00 0,00-27,2% Containet traffic (m TEU) Dynamics (%) -20,0% -30,0% 9

10 Container traffic in the Baltic Seaports 2004 vs

11 Top Baltic container ports in ,0% ,6% 2,9% 16,4% -2,5% -8,3% 11,8% 2,7% -1,2% 1,7% 0,8% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% 11

12 Traffic development of the top Baltic container ports in year 2015 with traffic forecast ,7% -18,4% -20,0% -5,0% -10,3% -15,9% 10,2% 4,5% -3,1% -59,1% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% -10,0% -20,0% -30,0% -40,0% -50,0% -60,0% -70,0% (est.) Growth 2015

13 5,82 7,99 7,32 8,76 9,38 8,00 9,75 9,72 Container traffic in the Baltic seaports and estimation for ,00 10,00 25,9% 19,7% 30,0% 20,0% 8,00 6,00 5,6% 7,1% 3,9% -0,3% 10,0% 0,0% 4,00 2,00 0,00-27,2% (est.) Containet traffic (m TEU) Dynamics (%) -10,0% -17,7% -20,0% -30,0% 13

14 Development of the Baltic feeder fleet in

15 Baltic top 10 feeder/short-sea container operators fleets [as of August 2015] % 100% % -33% 4% 3% -10% -29% 0% -34% 27% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% 0-40% Total TEU capacity Yoy [%] 15

16 Baltic maritime port trends short summary Stagnation in the total turnover in the Baltic maritime ports with redefinition of the cargo flow scheme (oil, coal, containers). Growing importance of the Russian ports in the Baltic Sea region (1/4 of market & top 3 Baltic ports). Improvement of turnover in all main types of cargo during last decade: liquid cargo +17%, dry bulk +12% & general cargo +14%. Cyclical development of the container traffic in the Baltic ports with strong decline in 2015 (global & regional factors). Related changes in the Baltic container fleet at the turn of 2014 and 2015 years (decrease of capacity & slight limitation of the vessel size) Economic growth and trade of the Baltic countries as the main factors for further development of seaports turnover

17 Dynamic of GDP growth in the Baltic countries, 2013 & 2014 [%] 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 3,30 2,93 2,36 2,14 2,08 1,61 0,99 0,62-0,11-1,00-2,

18 GDP growth forecasts for revision by IMF ( ) 5,00 4,00 3,48 3,00 2,00 1,00 2,85 2,66 2,52 2,30 1,64 1,62 0,83 0,00-1,00-2,00-3,00-4,00 IMF IMF ,83

19 Forecast of GDP annual growth in year ,00% 3,50% 3,95% 3,73% 3,63% 3,38% 3,00% 2,50% 2,32% 2,22% 2,00% 1,50% 1,76% 1,50% 1,26% 1,00% 0,50% 0,00%

20 Annual growth of export & import in year 2020 [%] 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Poland Denmark Estonia Sweden Germany Latvia Russia Finland Import Export

21 Future challenges for ports of the Baltic Sea region Solid but modest rate of economic growth of European countries & recovery of Russian economy. Gradual improvement of intra & extra European trade (especially in terms of volume) Baltic maritime transport as competitive mode of transport. Improvement of the average value of traded goods contenerisation & ro-ro traffic development. Stabilisation of geopolitical and economic situation: European Union, East Europe, Global scale. Environmental restrictions & requirements (e.g. SECA). Fuel prices development. Vertical and horizontal integration in maritime transport (e.g. alliances development M2, G6, CKYHE, O3).

22 Thank you! Maciej Matczak