Satcom for ATM. Iris workshop ESTEC, 18th September 2007

Transcription

1 Satcom for ATM Iris workshop ESTEC, 18th September 2007

2 Objectives The objective of this study is to specifically investigate whether or not a satellite system dedicated to safety communications can be made economically viable for a vast majority of aircraft categories. Iris Workshop 18 Sept

3 Organisation Budget: 715 k ESA: 450 k (63%) CNES: 265 k (37%) Partners: Core team: 8 Consultancy: 9 Duration: 9 months CCN (3 months) Iris Workshop 18 Sept

4 Study logic Service requirements (WP 1000) STEP 1 WS 1 System architecture (WP 2000) STEP 2 Service provision (WP 3000) Cost analysis (WP 5000) Deployment scenarios (WP 4000) STEP 3 Business case (WP 6000) STEP 4 WS 2 Iris Workshop 18 Sept

5 Mission requirements ATC ANSP SATM AOC CSP Mission requirements COCR v1.0 ATC services: Provided by infrastructure composed by a terrestrial and a satellite system AOC services: Open competition List of services to take into account: Data link everywhere & Voice services in remote areas Two types of services: Deterministic services & Best effort services Out of scope for SATM system: A/A comm s, ADS-B, ground services (airport) QoS requirements: Iris Workshop 18 Sept

6 Capacity requirements Satellite design depends on capacity distribution New simulation tool: Flight capacity simulator SAAM ECAC capacity simulator Benefits: Easy to adapt to new scenarios (services, priorities, cells, etc) Scalable Current work: Aeronautical Traffic loader Iris Workshop 18 Sept

7 Flight capacity simulator Results Bursty traffic Big time of inactivity (64%) Low amount of data Graphical Weather service to be reviewed Parameters ATC & AOC services Flight time: 70 minutes TMA dep: 7 minutes (2 sect) TMA arr.: 10 minutes (3 sect) Return link Forward link Return link Forw ard link Average rate (bps) 166,52 570,18 Average rate (bps) 164,53 195,48 Global information Global information 749, ,83 exchanged (kbits) exchanged (kbits) 740,41 879,68 Peak rate (kbps) 4,32 35,46 Peak rate (kbps) 4,12 9,44 With Graph. Weather Without Graph. Weather Iris Workshop 18 Sept

8 Global capacity simulator Iris Workshop 18 Sept

9 Global capacity simulator Unicast total capacity: Forward: 520 kbps Return: 435 kbps Broadcast: 45 kbps Total capacity per service type: Best effort: F: 400 kbps R: 300 kbps Deterministic: F: 160 kbps R: 190 kbps Number of aircraft Résolution 0.5º = 55.6 km Iris Workshop 18 Sept

10 Aeronautical Traffic loader GES AES Software traffic loader Based on COCR or SATM req s ATC AOC Platform independent UDP packets Priority is managed Log file available Measurements: Time delay GES Traffic loader Aeronautical comm s simulator AES Traffic loader Iris Workshop 18 Sept

11 System architecture design System Design satellite GES AES Dedicated, piggy-back or rented Geo orbit, ECAC or global coverage EIRP: 52 dbw ~ 41 dbw Centralised and distributed architecture Low gain antenna: 0dBi Low transmit power: EIRP 8,8 ~13,5 db Other drivers: cable loss, antenna location, diplexer, redundancy Services requirements can be met (QoS policy) Time delay Integrity Availability to be achieved with inter-system redundancy Iris Workshop 18 Sept

12 Functional architecture Terrestrial network Iris Workshop 18 Sept

13 Space segment : payload Antenna module Single beam, 3 and 5 beams studies Satellite antennas: 2,4 meters (regional beam & global beam) G/T from L-band antenna is the main constraint Bent pipe repeater AMS(R)S L band (mobile link) & Ku band (fix link) L-band: Proven technology (XM Radio, MTSAT) Ku-band: Proven technology Payload power/mass: From 1525 W / 119 kg up to 2386 W / 240 kg Iris Workshop 18 Sept

14 Coverages Global beam coverage Regional beam coverage Iris Workshop 18 Sept

15 Air interface Forward link Option CDMA (dedicated) GES: Centralized or distributed Synchronous CDMA Connectionless Data rate: 5.5 kbps Turbocoding ½ Return link Option CDMA (dedicated) GES: Centralized or distributed Synchronous CDMA Data rate: 5.5 kbps Aloha, mini-slot & DAMA Option DVB-S2 GES: Centralized Single TDM Symbol rate: 1 Mbaud Adaptative modcod Less power required High spectrum efficiency Iris Workshop 18 Sept

16 SATM analysis Link budgets Bit rate (kbps) Sat. EIRP (dbw) Pow. Sat (W) Scenario 1: 1.4 m Scenario 2: 2.4 m Scenario 3: Global Scenario 3: Global Bit rate (kbps) AES EIRP (dbw) G/T Sat (db/k) Scenario 1: 1.4 m Scenario 2: 2.4 m Scenario 3: Global Scenario 3: Global Iris Workshop 18 Sept

17 Avionics Trade-off analysis (G/T & EIRP) Architectural drivers: Antenna issues (0 dbi antenna) Size & drag: Small, low drag blade configuration Location: Shadowing Multipath Space diversity (depending on satellite configuration) RF Cable loss Thermal design : passive cooling Iris Workshop 18 Sept

18 Avionics Trade-off analysis to lower the cost Cost drivers: Reliability / Availability analysis + High Power Amplifier Options considered: Voice capability, dual receiver, CDMA receiver Technical features: Dual 0 dbi antenna (low gain antenna, easy to install in every aircraft) EIRP (From 13.5 dbw global beam to 8.8dBW European beam) Iris Workshop 18 Sept

19 Service provision Current situation Market architecture ANSP have VHF network CSP offers bundled services to users Independents providers in the value chain Flexible pricing ATSC services Mandatory carriage Threats Competitor systems Airline acceptability: Mandate benefits Cost reductions Future situation Market architecture Need for an oversight body Value chain Unbundled Satellite operator Bundled Satellite operator Lessons learnt: Modest competition is necessary Preserve intellectual property Capacity planning is important Open competition Threats Competitor systems Airline acceptability: Cost reductions GES operator End-user GES operator CSP End-user AOC services Iris Workshop 18 Sept

20 Deployment scenarios SESAR Master Plan for Future Communicatino Infrastructure (FCI) Ground Radio NEW COMMUNICATION STANDARDS DEVELOPMENT Satellite Radio Carriage Mandate Avionics Transition TRANSITION PHASE TO FCI Initial FCI Operation Paradigm Shift Full FCI Operation The FCI will include 2 segments : A new Ground radio system A new Satellite radio system Carriage of FCI avionics will be mandatory in A transition period of 7 years is considered Iris Workshop 18 Sept

21 Deployment scenarios D e v e lo p m e n t P h a s e T ra n s itio n P h a s e F u ll O p e ra tio n a l P h a s e L e a s e d C a p a. L e a s e d C a p a. A T M P a y lo a d A T M P a y lo a d L e a s e d C a p a. A T M P a y lo a d 4 A T M P a y lo a d A T M P a y lo a d D e d ic a te d S a t. L e a s e d C a p a. D e d ic a te d S a t. D e d ic a te d S a t. D e d ic a te d S a t. A T M P a y lo a d D e d ic a te d S a t. D e d ic a te d S a t. Deployment scenarios provide planning inputs for Business Assessment Iris Workshop 18 Sept

22 Ex : ATM Satcom Deployment Scenario 5 Space Segment Assumptions for Scenario 5 Lease Capacity for Development Programme First Space Segment Element 1 ATM Dedicated Satellite Support Transition & Full Operational Service Lifetime 15 years Launch target : 2014 Second Space Segment Element 1 ATM Dedicated Satellite Lifetime 15 years Support Operational Service Launch target : 2017 Refurbishment of ATM Dedicated Satellite will be required around 2030 Iris Workshop 18 Sept

23 Ex : ATM Satcom Deployment Scenario 5 Developm ent Program m e Initial Satcom Service 2020 FCI Target System Test Bed Full Satcom Service Lease Capacity Dedicated Satellite Dedicated Satellite Tes t Ground Segm ent Test User Segm ent System Validation Carriage Mandate System Standardisation Avionics Certification Aircraft Certification Development & Launch of Dedicated Satellite Ope. Ground Deploym ent Avionics Deploym ent Development & Launch of Dedicated Satellite Ope. Space Sgt (1) Ope. Space Sgt (2) Full Satcom Capability Reduction of risks space sgt Limited verification Iris Workshop 18 Sept

24 Business Scenarios - Building Blocks Business Scenario Funding Scenario Public Procurement (PP) OR Public Private Partnership (PPP/PFI) OR Private Venture (PV) Revenue Flow Market Environment Services Users + Competition + Pricing ECAC ATS + ECAC AOC + Non ECAC Cost Profile Linked System Architecture and Deployment Reduced OR Nominal OR Extended Iris Workshop 18 Sept

25 High Level Schedule T0 T0+5y T0+7y T0+14y T0+20y SESAR Master Plan Development Phase Deployment Phase FCI Full Operations SATM Phases Development / Validation Init Ops (4y) Full Ops (16y) EDC FCC EoC SATM Services Pioneer AOC Service ATSC operator certification Full AOC Service Full ATSC service SATM CAPEX CAPEX 1 CAPEX 2 CAPEX R SATM Space Segment Life Space Segment 1 (Initial) Space Segment 2 (Full Deployment) Space Segment 1R (Replenishment) S/S Next generation SATM Equipment Standard Definition ICAO Standard Ready A/C Equipment KO Equipment Ramp Up A/C Equipment Finished Equipment Maintenance Iris Workshop 18 Sept

26 System Scenarios - Cost Profiles Yearly Cost (M ) Scenario 3-1 Sat + 1 Payload Scenario 5 - Baseline - 2 sats Scenario 6-2 sats (global coverage) Iris Workshop 18 Sept

27 Revenue Modeling Service Value Chain and Charging Scheme Commercial Operators AOC SatCom service lease SATM Operator Competitive Satellite AOC capacity Subscription Fee + Service usage fees ATSC & AOC CSP Retention (OPEX, CAPEX amortization (TR), margins) Satellite ATSC & AOC service ATSC Service Access (TR + SAT) ATSC Fee (Terrestrial Radio) ATSC Fee (Satcom) Regulated ATSC Fees (% of RC) Airlines ATS ANSP RCO Route Charges Payment (RC) Service Charge Iris Workshop 18 Sept

28 Revenues Nominal Scenario Yearly Revenue Flow Extended coverage Yearly Revenues (M ) Revenues (20 years total) AOC Revenues 445 M ATSC Revenues 647 M Nominal Revenues M Non ECAC services 93 M Extended Revenues M AOC 20 ATSC Time Iris Workshop 18 Sept

29 Business case conclusion For the funding scenarios: The PFI offers the best compromise Most financially attractive to both public authorities and private investors More robust to cost and revenues uncertainties Best guarantees in terms of viability and permanency over years The Private Venture scenario considered does not look financially viable A Public Procurement could be considered if the business case does not attract private investors Main drivers: Operator exposure to various risks User equipment ramp-up System size vs. service Competition against other solutions Iris Workshop 18 Sept

30 PPP / PFI Scenario Iris Workshop 18 Sept

31 PPP / PFI - Funding Distribution Public Sector Initial Deployment Full Deployment Full Operations 100% CAPEX1 Replacement of Assets REP Debt against assets and a running business Concessionnaire 100% CAPEX2 80% Debt 20% Equity OPEX Debt Repayment Interests and taxes % REPCAPEX REP Debt interests PPP Investment - Funding Distribution Public Funds Early Revenues SATM SPC Debt SATM SH Equity Cum. Investment Funding (M ) Timeline (Years) Iris Workshop 18 Sept

32 PPP / PFI Cash Flow Balance SATM Public Authority Sharing of Commercial Revenues SATM Revenues 3P Rev SATM Private Operator AOC 3P 50% Equity Return 50% ToP Senior Debt repayment % Route Charges Interest & Tax Operations Costs The ToP guarantees the senior debt repayment and operating costs The AOC commercial revenues and eventual extra revenues will generate the concessionnaire return The revenue sharing mechanism reduces the public sector contribution and consequently the savings could be potentially flown down to the end users Iris Workshop 18 Sept

33 PPP / PFI Financial Results PPP - SATM SPC Cash Flows Cumulate Equity Cash Flow Equity Cash Flow Full system Equity Cash Flow Operational phase Cash Flow (M ) Timeline (Years) SATM Concessionnaire IRR = 21% over 20 y Breakeven Point reached at t0+8y (2022) Public Sector NPV = -110 M The expected IRR is considered as attractive for private investors The concessionaire will finance the replenishment with a fair deal by Iris Workshop 18 Sept

34 PPP / PFI - Sensitivities Sensitivity to AOC price PPP Scenario AOC price (M ) AOC Revenues (M ) SATM Operator IRR 10,43% 14,15% 17,71% 21,03% 24,25% 27,36% Public Sector NPV 2008 (M ) The concessionaire is robust to AOC market risk, nevertheless AOC revenues could also be considered as an additional upside for investors (public or private) Sensitivity to Public Sector Contribution PPP Scenario Contribution to Initial CAPEX 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 80% 80% 80% 80% AOC revenue sharing (private part) 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 90% 80% 70% 60% AOC Revenues (private part) (M ) SATM Operator IRR 21,03% 15,59% 12,18% 9,65% 7,62% 5,70% 17,12% 15,97% 14,78% 13,51% Public Sector NPV 2008 (M ) The PPP relies a lot on the public sector initial CAPEX contribution, however, the public contribution to the initial CAPEX can be reduced Iris Workshop 18 Sept

35 PPP / PFI - Conclusions The expected IRR is considered as attractive for private investors The concessionnaire seems robust to market risk The funding of the initial CAPEX by the development agency contributes a lot to the expected profitability but could be lowered The replenishment of assets seems feasible without endangering the concessionnaire viability Iris Workshop 18 Sept

36 General conclusion Several scenarios for a satellite-based system for aeronautical communications have been analysed. Technically, a satellite system could meet the requirements The business case shows that it is economically viable. Many points are still open: The mandatory carriage confirmation The final mission requirements (ATC and AOC) A deep analysis on the communication standard Some of these points will be treated in the next months Iris Workshop 18 Sept