New and Used Aircraft Trends and Developments in the Baltic Business Aviation Market
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1 New and Used Aircraft Trends and Developments in the Baltic Business Aviation Market Rob Morris Senior Aviation Analyst Ascend a Flightglobal Advisory Service 11 April 213 1
2 Ascend 48 years of experience and global expertise Unrivalled proprietary data and highly respected team Independent advisor to aviation financiers, lessors, insurers, airlines, manufacturers & regulators World s most comprehensive online aviation fleet databases Industry pioneers - first to launch online valuation services, first to launch industry accepted Ratings service, first with Aircraft Investment Indices Ascend senior managers are widely attributed with developing many of the standard approaches to aircraft loan documents Every year, around the world, tens of thousands of business decisions are made using Ascend information Our specialist valuation and appraisal services, and knowledge and understanding of market dynamics, enable clients to react to changes in the aircraft and engine market in a timely manner
3 AIRPORTS REGULATORY OEM FINANCE INSURANCE LEASING MRO COMPONENTS AIRLINES
4 Global Presence
5 Aircraft In Service The Baltic Business Aviation Fleet is Growing Helicopter Biz Prop VLJ Entry Level Light Light / Medium Medium BizLiner Source Ascend Online Fleets
6 Aircraft In Service - Europe Aircraft in Service Baltic States Fleet Trend has Diverged Since 28 4, 3 3,5 25 3, 2 2,5 15 2, 1 1,5 5 1, Europe Baltic States Source Ascend Online Fleets
7 Fleet Fleet Evenly Distributed Across Region Estonia Latvia Lithuania BizProp VLJ Entry Level Light Light / Medium Medium Source Ascend Online Fleets
8 Share of Fleet Relatively More Air Taxi / Charter Aircraft 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Baltic States Europe World Air Taxi / Executive Charter Private / Corporate Fractional Other Source Ascend Online Fleets
9 Fleet Diverse Fleet Dominated by Light / Medium Types BizProp Citation Mustang Premier I Learjet 25 Learjet / Hawker Learjet 45 Learjet 6 Challenger Source Ascend Online Fleets
10 Aircraft in Service Global Business Jet Fleet Continues to Grow 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, VLJ Entry Level Light Light / Medium Medium Heavy BizLiner Source Ascend Online Fleets
11 Aircraft Sales % of Global Fleet Traded Global Business Jet Used Aircraft Sales Recovering 4, 4% 3,5 35% 3, 3% 2,5 25% 2, 2% 1,5 15% 1, 1% 5 5% % VLJ Entry Level Light Light / Medium Medium Heavy % of Fleet Traded Source Ascend Online Fleets
12 Aircraft Offered For Sale Used Aircraft Inventories Stable Q1-211 Q3-211 Q1-212 Q3-212 Q1-213 Learjet 6 Learjet 6XR Source Ascend Analysis of Controller.com Listings
13 New Aircraft Deliveries Reduced Demand Since 28 Bottoming Out.. 1,4 1,2 1, VLJ Entry Level Light Light / Medium Medium Heavy BizLiner Source Ascend Online Fleets
14 Share of Aircraft Deliveries.and Showing Move to Larger Aircraft 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % VLJ Entry Level Light Light / Medium Medium Heavy BizLiner Source Ascend Online Fleets
15 New Models Expected to Stimulate Demand
16 CMV ($mn) Used Aircraft Values Starting to Recover? 16 Learjet 6 Constant Age Values Years 5 Years 1 Years 15 Years Source Ascend V1 Online Values
17 Base Value ($213mn) Future Value Outlook 9 Lear 6 Future Base Values Build 26 Build 24 Build 2 Build 1995 Build Source Ascend V1 Online Values
18 Base Value ($213mn) Future Value Outlook 1 Hawker 125 Future Base Values XP 27 85XP Source Ascend V1 Online Values
19 Summary Business / Corporate aircraft fleet in Baltic States continues to grow Current fleet dominated by light / medium types Opportunity to add heavy (large, long-range types)? Global fleet growth expected to return in 213 Significant element of future demand stimulated by new models Used aircraft inventories stable Used aircraft sale volumes and values starting to recover Future value outlook stable
20 Rob Morris Senior Analyst +44 () () Ascend World Business Centre 2 Newall Road Heathrow Airport London TW6 2SF
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