2009 Business Aviation Outlook

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1 2009 Business Aviation Outlook

2 2009 Business Aviation Outlook 23 st Year of Survey, 18 th consecutive public report release 1,200 Corporate flight departments from around the world Aircraft Manufacturers and other sources 5 year purchase plans increased over 2008, but are delayed International demand gains share Significant delivery down cycle in 2009 and 2010 Several programs suspended or delayed Long-term outlook for measured recovery Up to 11,000 aircraft worth $200B projected from

3 Business Aviation Environment Mid-Year 2009 Through Q2 09 business jet deliveries aircraft worth $8.0 B 25% decrease in units 24% decrease in constant 2009 dollars Several Hundred New Jet Orders repositioned during first half 2009: Book-to-Bill ratio negative since Q4 2008, after several years exceeding 2.0 Industry backlog deferred, still represents several years volume at expected rates Fractional industry net share gain / loss through Q down 47% Fractional Segment took ~21 new jets through Q3 2009, off 76% from 2008 levels Business Jet flights down in U.S. and Europe but positive trends emerging Level of decline improving since Q109 Longer range Aircraft monthly usage in the U.S. nearly back to positive territory 2009 Purchase Plans Improved Despite Recession 2

4 Aircraft Units Operator Count World Business Jet Fleet & Operator Base 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 World Business Jet Fleet Oceania Asia Africa Europe Latin America North America 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 World Business Jet Operators 0 Oceania Asia Africa Europe Latin America North America Business Jets 5 Yr. CAGR +5.5% 9,800 Jet Operators 5 Yr. CAGR +4.7% 3

5 Fleet Replacement & Expansion Percentage Five Year Purchase Plans for New Jets 50% 40% 30% 20% 14% Additions Replacements 23% 21% 14% 13% 22% 30% 14% 24% 24% 25% 25% 26% 23% 33% 32% 25% 40% 10% 0% 2009 Purchase Plans Increased Operators Looking Ahead to Economic Recovery 4

6 5 Year Fleet Replacement and Expansion Percentage 100% 80% Purchase Expectations by Region 79% % 40% 50% 58% 51% 44% 55% 47% 40% 59% 38% 45% 40% 20% 20% 25% 25% 0% Asia Middle-East/Africa Europe Latin America North America Significant Global Demand Still Present North America, Latin America More Conservative 5

7 Regional Demand for New Jets in the Next 5 Years Traditional Corporate & Charter Operator Base Africa / Middle East, 7% Asia/Pacific, Latin 7% America, 11% North America, 48% Europe, 27% International Share of Demand Continues to Increase 6

8 New Jet Purchase Plans by Class Purchase Plans Unit Share Purchase Plans - Value Small Cabin (Personal Jet Through Light) 24% 36% Large Cabin (Large Through Business Liner) 40% 25% Medium Cabin Small Cabin 7% 68% Large Cabin Medium Cabin (Light Medium Through Super Midsize) Big Cabin Jets Captured 40% of Mentions and ~70% of $Value 7

9 Purchase Expectations for Used Jets 2009 Used Jet Trends Large increase in used jet inventory for sale since mid 2008 has peaked and begun to fall slightly ~17% of active fleet listed for sale ~900 late model jets under 10 years old listed 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 5 Year Replacement and Expansion percentages % 41% 31% 26% 27% 27% 40% are Very Light and Medium class aircraft Other classes up to lesser degree Average asking prices declining significantly for all models Forward look at used jet purchase plans in 2009 survey fell again 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 15% 14% 22% 14% 8% 9% 5% 15% 13% 13% 13% 13% 9% 8% 9% 8% World Asia Middle East/Africa Latin America Continued Decline in Near Term Used Jet Interest 8% Europe 9% 9% 15% 17% 15% North America 8

10 Reasons for New Jet Purchase 2009 Survey North America Europe Latin America Asia Age Updated Avionics New Technology More Range Bigger Cabin/Op Cost Age Bigger Cabin Operating Costs cost More Range Warranties Age Age Updated Avionics More Range Operating Cost Bigger Cabin/Fuel Use Bigger cabin Cabin Age Operating Costs More Range Updated Avionics Middle East / Africa Bigger Cabin Operating cost Age Warranties More Range 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Efficiency and Operating Costs Gained Importance 9

11 Aircraft Units July 2009 Outlook for Business Jet Deliveries History Forecast Very High Speed/ULR 1000 Large 800 Long Range 600 Ultra Long Range Med-Lrg Medium Lt-Med V Light Light 10,000-11,000 New Jets from

12 Constant $ 2009 July 2009 Outlook for Business Jet Deliveries Constant 2009 Dollars $30,000 History Forecast $25,000 $20,000 Very High Speed/ULR $15,000 $10,000 Ultra Long Range Long Range Large $5,000 $0 Med-Lrg Medium Light V Light Lt-Med ~$200B from

13 Conclusions Deliveries will cycle down in 2009 and 2010: Peak-to-trough decline will be in a range of 40% or more Operator survey signaling a potential recovery : Global Insight indicates that a moderate global economic recovery has begun Weak dollar will have positive impact on International sales Number of jets per UHNWI in emerging markets far below potential Recovery in new aircraft deliveries will begin in 2011/2012 Pipeline of new high value models still supports longer term growth Net new jet orders expected to be positive in 2010 and accelerate in 2011 Very light jet production ramping up backlogs appear to be holding Signs of stabilization in fleet utilization and used aircraft: U.S. and European flight activity stabilizing Improvement in jet utilization expected to begin in 2010, coincident with global economic recovery Longer Term New Jet Outlook Positive Operator Survey Signaling a Measured New Jet Demand Recovery 12

2009 Business Aviation Outlook

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