2017 Recap. Market Temperature. Piston Singles The single engine piston

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "2017 Recap. Market Temperature. Piston Singles The single engine piston"

Theresa Tamsyn Norton
5 years ago
Views:

1 2018 Volume 1 The Quarterly Newsletter of Vref For Those Who Demand Accuracy, And Know the Difference! 2017 Recap Activity levels are up, and inventories are dropping. This is definitely a different market than in recent years. With less pre-owned jets on the market and more buyers, this has sure made for an interesting few months. As you can see from the small sample in Table 1, the average inventory numbers dropped from 23 to 14 over the course of The average percent of fleet for sale dropped from 7.93% to 4.75%. Two aircraft that really stand out are the G550 and Challenger 300, they dropped 19 and 18 units respectively. Please keep in mind that not all inventory levels are down, and this is only a small sampling of the business jet market. Inventory levels are certainly driving prices in the current market. There were Market Temperature Piston Singles The single engine piston market has been very good over the past year. Most of the older aircraft values have been holding firm or improving. The Vref Late Model Light Single Index went up by 2% this quarter. There are certain aircraft in this category that even two OEM s that delivered more units than forecasted. Dassault delivered 49 and Bombardier delivered 140. Dassault was 4 units and Bombardier was 5 units more than projected. With a huge 4th quarter push, Embraer managed to meet it s 2017 goal. Textron Aviation finished 2017 with 180 deliveries, which is two more than that of Dec-16 % of Fleet Dec-17 % of Fleet Jan-18 % of Fleet G % % % XLS % % % Phenom % % % Challenger % % % Global % % % G % % % CJ % % % Falcon 2000LX % % % Falcon 7X % % % G % % % Average % % % Numbers per JetNet. Please see JetNet.com for more information Vref Indices % Change from 2017 Vol 4 to 2018 Vol 1 Light Jet -2% Turboprop 0% Midsize -2% Pressurized Twin 1% Late Model Midsize -1% Late Light Single 2% Large Jet 0% Light Single 1% Late Model Large 0% Complex 0%

2 2018 Volume 1 (Page 2) Market Temperature Continued from page 1 have now increased in value two quarters in a row, like the Diamond DA40. The majority in this category are very solid, like the G36, which has virtually held the same value since 2014 Volume 2. Both aircraft, along with several others, are represented in Graph 1. Piston Twin The piston twin market has been very strong as of late. The Vref Light Twin Index has gone up slightly for the past five quarters. The Vref Pressurized Piston Twin Index has increased over the past three quarters. This quarter, the Beechcraft Baron 58P increased in value by $5-10,000 depending on year. Cessna s Golden Eagle 421 has improved by $5,000 recently. Turboprop Although this does not apply to all aircraft in this segment, the turboprop market has been stable for quite some time. The Vref Turboprop Index did trend down slightly this quarter, but for the most part, the later model turboprops are holding value. As illustrated in the second graph, the Quest Kodiak, Cessna Caravan and the Pilatus PC12 have all held or increased in value since 2016 Volume 3. Some planes, like the Meridian, are decreasing slightly at about 2% for the same time-period. Graph #1

3 2018 Volume 1 (Page 3) Market Temperature Continued from page 2 Jets Although this market trended slightly down, it is the most improved segment. The Change can mainly be attributed to the Large Jet Category. Breaking it down in to three categories, here is what we see. The Vref Light Jet Index did go down this quarter, but there is a lot of buzz in this market. The Vision Jet and the Honda Jet are both selling very well. There is also a lot of anticipation about the Eclipse 700. The Vref Late Model Midsize Jet Index only decreased by $60,000 this quarter, and most jets in this segment didn t decrease at all. Look at Graph 3, you can see a slight decline in the Sovereign market, but the other aircraft in this graph have remained constant. The 2010 Citation XLS+ hasn t moved in value since 2017 Volume 1, and the 2010 G150 hasn t declined since 2017 Volume 2. The Challenger 605 market has really stabilized and held its value this quarter. The Late Model Large Jet was the most improved segment over the course of This Index went from decreasing by more than $1.3 Million from 2017 Quarter 1 to 2017 Quarter 2 Graph #2

4 2018 Volume 1 (Page 4) Market Temperature Continued from page 3 to only declining by $17,000 this quarter. The 2010 Gulfstream G550 went down $5 Million in 2016, and has now held value at $23.5 Million for three quarters. Over the same time-period, the inventory level for the G550 has also dropped from 36 to 17 leaving only 3.1% of the fleet for sale. As you can see from Graph 4, all five aircraft went from a steep decline to almost flat in the last couple quarters. We have not seen the drastic reductions that were present in recent years. The inventory levels for the five aircraft in the graph average 8.2%. The percent of fleet for sale for the 7X, Global 5000 and the 900 LX is just over 8%. Gulfstream G450 has less than 6% of the fleet for sale. Most inventory levels are dropping. With all the activity and transactions that were closed in 2017, we are excited to see what 2018 will bring. Graph #3

5 2018 Volume 1 (Page 5) Graph #4

General Aviation Airplane Shipment Report. End-of-Year 2008

General Aviation Airplane Shipment Report General Aviation Manufacturers Association 1400 K Street NW, Suite 801 Washington, DC 20005 End-of-Year 2008 February 8, 2012 Make and Model QI QII QIII QIV YTD