2012 NEWSLETTER BLUEBOOK PERSPECTIVES FACING THE NATION By Carl Janssens, ASA Editor and Chief Appraiser

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1 MRKETLINE VOL 25 NO NEWSLETTER LUEOOK PERSPECTIVES FCING THE NTION y Carl Janssens, S Editor and Chief ppraiser It is all said and done. new leader has been chosen. The challenges of this executive office are staggering. Creating jobs for the people in his charge, modification of the healthcare system and ongoing issues with a slowing economy are enormous. Yes, the newly appointed leader of the People s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, faces many complex challenges in the days ahead. Similar to President arack Obama, how policies will be developed to benefit his countrymen have yet to be revealed. One thing is certain, China is focused on growing its economy, so much so that it is predicted to surpass the U.S. economy in less than five years or so critics think. Having visited Savannah, Georgia recently, one would see a boom town of growth. Construction is everywhere around the Gulfstream campus. So, if there are such great opportunities to sell aircraft, why aren t prices more stable these days? I suggest prices are stable, with the exception of Hawker aircraft, for reasons already clear to the aviation community. OEMs are selling new aircraft and making money. Dealing with the pre-owned market is a bit more challenging. The pre-owned market is being re-defined by the velocity of transactions. It takes more than just a few transactions to make the pre-owned market move in the right direction. Price is always a concern. Sellers want maximum return on their assets. uyers want compensation for future values up front in the form of discounts. Similar to the way politics are supposed to work, somewhere in the middle, at least in the playing field of a deal, a resolution is made and a sale is complete. oth buyer and seller may not be happy, but the best outcome was agreed upon by both parties, while the old adage of economics; supply and demand referee. When it comes to the bottom line, the question should be: was the business tool, the corporate aircraft, a needed asset in growing profits by its ability to move folks in an efficient and timely manner? The answer will always be yes. Walking around sock-footed and beltless takes time- and time is money. Sure, things could be better, corporations could become more confident in the economy and make some capital investments in their transportation budget, Continued on page 2. TLE OF CONTENTS LUEOOK-T--GLNCE JET INCRESED DECRESED 64 STLE 321 TUROPROP INCRESED 3 DECRESED 23 STLE 389 MULTI INCRESED 4 DECRESED 84 STLE 582 SINGLE luebook Perspectives luebook t--glance Current Market Strength Marketline Charts Change of Status Charts Into the lue What s New round the Globe sk ircraft luebook Meet the Staff INCRESED 27 DECRESED 126 STLE 2432 HELICOPTER INCRESED 34 DECRESED 164 STLE 92 1 WINTER 212

2 MRKETLINE and a legislative agenda for growing the economy could be revealed by President Obama. ut none of that looks like it s going to happen any time soon. One can always hope for better times, but don t neglect the opportunities that are still available now. Looking at the LUEOOK - T - - GLNCE column (page 1) shows a market in motion. Prices for pre-owned aircraft continue to decrease quarter-to-quarter in the jet and turboprop category. Days on market for properly priced aircraft are moving on to new owners in a matter of months. Movement is good. Fixed wing single and multi engine values remain stable, while the helicopter segment also is reporting a majority of models with no change in values, when compared to the previous quarter. To see what changes have occurred in values, refer to the newly released edition of ircraft luebook Price Digest. CURRENT MRKET STRENGTH CMS represents an aircraft s current strength in the market. n + rating indicates the aircraft is enjoying a very firm market. Prices for an + aircraft are steadily rising, and holding times are very short or nonexistent. t the opposite end of the spectrum, a C- aircraft is one experiencing a very soft market. Its price is commonly discounted, and it often sets on the ramp in excess of eight months before selling. It is important to remember that Current Market Strength is not a forecast. It is valid only at Marketline s effective date of release. See chart below. MRKETLINE CHRTS ll of the listed aircraft have a composite score that is presented in the Used ircraft Market graph. Data points are represented in relationship to the respective new delivered historical price that is equal to 1%. The measure of change is reported in the actual percentage of value in relation to new. The delta between reporting periods can be concluded as the percentage of change. USED IRCRFT MRKET CURRENT MRKET STRENGTH (CMS) 27/28 Model CMS 27/28 Model CMS 27/28 Model CMS eech Premier 1 ombardier Global XRS ombardier Challenger 64 ombardier Challenger 3 ombardier LearJet 6XR ombardier Learjet 45XR Cessna Citation X Cessna Citation XLS Cessna Citation CJ3 Cessna Citation CJ2 Dassault Falcon 9EX Easy Dassault Falcon 5EX Dassault Falcon 2EX Embraer EM-135 Legacy Embraer Phenom 1 Gulfstream G55 Gulfstream G45 Gulfstream G2 Gulfstream G15 Hawker 8XP - Hawker 4XP C eech King ir 35 eech King ir 2 eech King ir C9GT Cessna 28 Grand Caravan Piaggio P18 Pilatus PC-12/47 Piper P46-5TP Meridian + Socata TM85 eech 58 aron - eech 36 onanza - Cessna T26H Stationair Cessna 182T Skylane Cessna 172S Skyhawk Cirrus SR22-G2 Cirrus SR2-G2 Diamond D4-18XLS Star Diamond D2-C1 Eclipse Mooney M2TN cclaim - Mooney M2R Ovation - Piper P46-35P Mirage Piper P34-22T Seneca V - Piper P28R-21 rrow Piper P rcher III Evektor Sportstar (LS) Flight Design CTLS (LS) gusta 19 Grand ell 26 L-4 Eurocopter S35-3 Robinson R44 Raven II Sikorsky S-76C++ 2 WINTER 212

3 MRKETLINE LRGE JET MEDIUM JET The Large Jet chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the seven jets listed. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. The Medium Jet chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six jets listed. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. YER/MODEL %CHNGE YER/MODEL %CHNGE 26 ombardier Global Express. 27 ombardier Challenger Dassault Falcon 9 EX Easy. 25 Dassault Falcon 2EX Easy Gulfstream G Gulfstream G Embraer EM135 Legacy. 25 ombardier Challenger ombardier Lear 45XR. 25 Cessna Citation Sovereign Cessna Citation XLS Gulfstream G Hawker 8XP WINTER 212

4 MRKETLINE SMLL JET TUROPROP The Small Jet chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six jets listed. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. The Turboprop chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the seven turboprops listed. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. YER/MODEL %CHNGE YER/MODEL %CHNGE 25 eech Premier Cessna Citation CJ Cessna 51 Mustang. 28 Embraer Phenom Embraer Phenom Hawker 4XP eech King ir eech King ir2. 25 eech King irc Cessna 28 Grand Caravan Piaggio vantip Pilatus PC12/ Socata TM7C2. 4 WINTER 212

5 MRKETLINE SINGLE/MULTI PISTON HELICOPTER The Single/Multi-Piston chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the 12 aircraft listed. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. The Helicopter chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the seven helicopters listed. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. YER/MODEL %CHNGE YER/MODEL %CHNGE 25 eech 58 aron. 25 Diamond D42 Twin Star. 25 Piper P34-22T Seneca V. 25 eech 36 onanza. 25 Cessna/Columbia Cessna 182T Skylane. 25 Cessna T26H Turbo Stationair. 25 Cessna 172S Skyhawk SP. 25 Cirrus SR22-G2. 25 Diamond D4-18 Star. 25 Piper P46-35P Mirage. 25 Piper P28R-21 rrow. 25 gusta 19E Power. 25 ell Eurocopter EC Eurocopter S35-3 Ecureuil. 24 Enstrom 28FX. 25 Robinson R44 Raven Sikorsky S-76C WINTER 212

6 MRKETLINE LEGCY JET LEGCY PISTON The Legacy Jet chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the eight jets listed. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. Legacy ircraft are those produced prior to the year 2. The Legacy Piston chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the ten piston aircraft listed. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. Legacy ircraft are those produced prior to the year 2. YER/MODEL %CHNGE YER/MODEL %CHNGE 1996 ombardier Challenger ombardier Lear Cessna Citation Ultra Dassault Falcon Dassault Falcon 5EX Gulfstream GV Gulfstream GIVSP Hawker8XP eech 36 onanza. 199 eech F33 onanza Cessna 21 Centurion II Cessna 172P Skyhawk Cessna 152 Commuter II. 199 Mooney 252 TSE Piper P Dakota. 199 Piper P-28R-21 rrow. 199 Piper P rcher II. 199 Piper P Warrior II. 6 WINTER 212

7 MRKETLINE LEGCY MULTI ENGINE PISTON NSDQ Consider these graphs as crosschecks. The general aviation and business aircraft market does not operate in a vacuum but is a part of the bigger picture The Legacy Multi Engine Piston chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six aircraft listed. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. Legacy ircraft are those produced prior to the year 2. YER/MODEL %CHNGE 1986 eech 58P Pressurized aron eech 58 aron Cessna 421 Eagle III Cessna 31R II Piper P-31C Navajo. 199 Piper P-34-22T Seneca III. U.S. REL GDP Each data point represents the E s final figure or latest estimate of the quarter-to-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rates of change in real GDP based on chained 25 dollars. The study begins with the first quarter in WINTER 212

8 MRKETLINE CHNGE OF STTUS: SINGLE/MULTI The black line in the chart depicts change-of-status data for singles. The light gray line represents multi Single: 494 Multi: CHNGE OF STTUS: JET/TURO/HELI The black line in the chart represents change-of-status information for jets. The light gray line depicts turboprops, while the dark gray line represents helicopters. Jet: 37 Turboprop: 386 Heli: CHNGE OF STTUS: TOTL MRKET Depicts change-of-status data for all aircraft included in the ircraft luebook. The numbers are from the F Registry. Gliders, homebuilts, airliners and other aircraft not found in the luebook are not included in this study Total Market WINTER 212

9 MRKETLINE INTO THE LUE ircraft luebook t-a-glance Cessna 152 Series y Chris Reynolds, S ircraft luebook-price Digest ircraft luebook-price Digest t-a-glance has reviewed the current market status of the Cessna 152 series aircraft. Research for this study was obtained in part from ircraft luebook, ircraft luebook s Historical Value Reference, the F s registry web site and various trade publications. Demand ccording to F records, around 3,98 Cessna 152s are registered in the United States with 3,18 being 152s and 8 as -152s. t the time of the writing of this article, over 5 various year models of the 152 series were for sale in the major aircraft trade publications, representing approximately 1.5% percent of the total registered fleet. While the Cessna 152 is a light two seat aircraft, it is not classified as a LS (due to it exceeding the 1,32 pound Maximum Take Off Weight limit for LSs). Pricing Current offerings for Cessna 152s range in asking prices from $16, to $87, with the majority of pricing between $2, to $4,. s expected, time, equipment and condition not only will impact the asking price, but selling price as well. The 152 has primarily been used as a training aircraft and thus most aircraft for sale are going to be hightime airframes. The average airframe time for an early 197s model is approximately 7, 12, hours. Most will not be equipped with next generation avionics, but with the availability of inexpensive components modern upgrades can easily be accommodated, without significant modifications. The winter 212 ircraft luebook lists a 1985 Cessna 152 with a reported verage Retail price of $26,. WHT S NEW IN Updated irworthiness Directives are available on ircraftbluebook.com. New comparison feature on the ircraft luebook CD-Rom compares an aircraft s current quarter values with its value from one year ago. IRCRFT LUEOOK ROUND THE GLOE ME 212, Dubai, UE; December 11th 13th Organized on behalf of the Middle East usiness viation ssociation (ME). N Schedulers & Dispatchers, San ntonio, Texas; January 22 25, 213 The premier event for Schedulers & Dispatchers and the suppliers who support this critical role in successful flight department management. sian usiness viation Conference & Exhibition (CE), Shanghai, China; pril 16 18, 213 CE is the region s largest show dedicated strictly to showcasing business aviation products and services to thousands of the region s top business leaders, entrepreneurs, wealth creators and other purchase decision-makers. European usiness viation Convention & Exhibition (ECE), Geneva, Switzerland; May 21 23, 213 ECE, jointly hosted each year by the European usiness viation ssociation (E), the leading association for business aviation in Europe, and the National usiness viation ssociation (N), the leading voice for the business aviation industry in the United States, is the premier annual meeting place for the European business aviation community. Historical Values 1985 Cessna 152, whose market values have been tracked since the first quarter of 1985 was reported new with a standard list price of $3,9 and an average equipped price of $45,345. ircraft luebook-price Digest s Historical Value Reference has demonstrated the Cessna 152 s market value performance by quarter in the graph for this 1985 model. Other historical values can be obtained at ircraft luebook s website, 9 WINTER 212

10 MRKETLINE SK IRCRFT LUEOOK In an effort to better explain how the ircraft luebook works, we have included a few more FQs this month that are relevant to all aircraft large and small. If you have any questions about the ircraft luebook-price Digest, please feel free to give the editorial staff a call at or us, info@aircraftbluebook.com. In the aircraft base average lines in the luebook we always see the No Damage History as a standard requirement, but if there is damage how does the luebook reflect this in terms of value? The short answer is that depends. Diminution of value is a very subjective concept in the aviation market. Even though most experts confirm its role in negotiating the purchase or sale of an aircraft, there are no specific techniques or principles that can be applied in every case of diminution. This aircraft characteristic (damage) is one of a multitude used during the negotiating process and is very hard to isolate its effects because every aircraft has a different history and a different perception of value. In transactions, the buyer will always be the final judge for the value of the aircraft and include the diminution factor in his or her evaluation. With that said, it must be understood that when dealing with assessing the market value of an aircraft with a damage incident, a multitude of factors must be reviewed and analyzed in relationship to the market for a specific aircraft model. There is no set formula that can be accurately applied to determine diminution of value, if any, regarding damage. The only appropriate method to determine the market value involving the characteristic of damage on an aircraft is for a technically qualified, experienced appraiser to conduct an investigation of the aircraft and logs, review specific issues regarding the repairs, compile all of the elements of the damage event and subsequent maintenance history, and then apply the conclusions to market activity for the specific aircraft. We like the ircraft luebook online but need a different way to receive and use all the data, is there a different form that we can receive the ircraft luebook information? The ircraft luebook offers custom solutions designed to fit your data needs. With a data license from ircraft luebook, we can provide customized files of the data you need in a format that works for you. This includes both ircraft luebook and Historical Value Reference Data. For more information please contact us: info@aircraftbluebook.com. Quarter-Page 3.5x4.875 MEET THE STFF Frank Craven, Publisher Frank.Craven@penton.com Carl Janssens, S Cheif ppraiser Carl@jetappraisals.com Chris Reynolds, S ssociate Editor/ppraiser Chris.Reynolds@aircraftbluebook.com Paul Wyatt, Consulting Editor Paul.Wyatt@penton.com WINTER 212