TANKER MARKET CAN A MIRACLE HAPPEN?
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1 TEN Ltd THE TANKER MARKET CAN A MIRACLE HAPPEN? Nikolas P. Tsakos President & CEO, TEN November 19 th,
2 Tanker Freight Rates Remain Healthy Charterer discrimination against single hull tonnage on the increase (20% of fleet single hull) Shortage of refining capacity in oil consuming nations demand to be largely long-haul Dislocation between refinery supply and demand Global refinery capacity expected to expand by 15% by end of % of new refineries to be constructed in Middle East and India Development of new long-haul trade routes $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 $ Break-Even level VLCC TCE Asset Values yr 3yr 5yr Products Far East to US (48 days one way 92 days rtn) Crude $200 $150 $100 $50 Venezuela to China (45 days one way 87 days rtn) West Africa to China (35 days one way 67 days rtn)) $ yrs 10 yrs NB Resale Source: Clarkson Research Studies 2
3 NB Orderbook remains in check. Vessel Delivery Schedule Number of Ships newbuildings vs. 634 single-hulls 2008 (remaining) VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax Handysize About 25% of orderbook is built in either newly established or Greenfield yards Total NBs Single Hulls Handysize Panamax Aframax Suezmax VLCC 1, Source: Clarkson Research Studies, Oil & Tanker Trades Outlook - September
4 4 Demand Long Term Prospects Positive Potential of China and India in oil consumption is tremendous. Their total population is 2.5 billion in a world of 6.5 billion. Their per capita oil consumption is at extremely low levels and have already embarked on an aggressive industrialization program and development of a middle class auto owner If China reaches the same levels of consumption per capita as Thailand, Chinese oil demand (based on existing population) would rise to 18 mbpd, an increase of 10 mbpd from current levels Planned increase of US s SPR to 1.5 billion by 2027 Increase of 152,000bpd for next 20 years BARRELS OF OIL PER CAPITA PER ANNUM (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008) 2007 India China (incl. HK) Thailand EU Japan United States China and India are also building SPRs Rates should remain healthy due to growing oil demand Shipyards running at 100% utilization - Constraints until early 2012 GLOBAL OIL DEMAND Year Demand Increase YoY % mbpd mbpd + 1.1% mbpd mbpd + 1.6% mbpd mbpd +0.5% 2009 (est) 87.2 mbpd +0.7 mbpd +0.8% Source: International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report, Sept. 2008
5 TEN Ltd 5
6 $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 IRAQ WAR $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 NY $80m TEN - Growth in Challenging Environments 1yr VLCC TC rates vs. Newbuilding Prices and TEN s equity raising ability MIF/TEN OSE $35m OSLO $85m NYSE $110m OPA 90 Effect ASIAN CRISIS RUSSIAN CRISIS 9/11 Effect $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ YR TCE NB Prices
7 Strong Timely Fleet Growth Focused relationships with yards in South Korea and Japan Average contract price at significant discount to current NB prices Strong banking relations to finance upcoming deliveries Capacity to take advantage of NB resales if appropriate Timely Newbuildings the backbone of TEN s growth Vessels NB Deliveries One of the best timed newbuilding programs in the peer group 6 5 Fleet Growth (in DWT mill) % CAGR
8 Profitable Through the Cycles Continuous profitability irrespective of market cycles $600,000 Net Income in $183.2m in 2007 ($175.3m in 9 months 2008) 230,000dwt in million in November 2008 Paid over $250 million in dividends since initiation of dividend program in 2002 A 313% price increase since NYSE IPO 24% per annum compounded (incl. dividends) 2:1 stock split in November Net Income Growth 175 Dec vessels 5.3m dwt 140 USD million October 1993 March vessels 2.3m dwt 35 4 vessels 0.2m dwt (est) 8
9 Diversified Fleet CRUDE TANKERS CLEAN / PRODUCT TANKERS Dwt Built Hull Ice Class VLCC 1 Millennium 301, DH 2 La Madrina 299, DH 3 La Prudencia 298, DH SUEZMAX 1 Arctic 163, DH 1A 2 Antarctic 163, DH 1A 3 Archangel 163, DH 1A 4 Alaska 163, DH 1A 5 Eurochampion , DH 1C 6 Euronike 164, DH 1C 7 Triathlon 164, DH 8 Silia T 164, DH 9 Cape Balboa* 164, DH 10 Decathlon 164, DH AFRAMAX 1 Uraga Princess 105, DH 2 Ise Princess 105, DH 3 Asahi Princess 105, DH 4 Sapporo Princess 105, DH 5 Maria Princess 105, DH 6 Nippon Princess 105, DH 7 Izumo Princess 105, DH 8 Sakura Princess 105, DH 9 Marathon 107, DH 10 Parthenon 107, DH 11 Opal Queen 107, DH 12 Vergina II 96, DH * Sale & Leaseback (1) 51% ownership Dwt Built Hull Ice Class AFRAMAX - LR 1 Proteas 117, DH 1A 2 Promitheas 117, DH 1A 3 Propontis 117, DH 1A PANAMAX 1 Selecao 74, DH 2 Socrates 74, DH 3 Maya (1) 68, DH 4 Inca (1) 68, DH 5 Andes 68, DH 6 Victory III 68, DH 1C 7 Hesnes 68, DH 1C HANDYMAX - MR 1 Ariadne 53, DH 1A 2 Artemis 53, DH 1A 3 Afrodite 53, DH 1A 4 Apollon 53, DH 1A 5 Aris 53, DH 1A 6 Ajax 53, DH 1A HANDYSIZE 1 Andromeda 37, DH 1A 2 Aegeas 37, DH 1A 3 Byzantion 37, DH 1B 4 Bosporos 37, DH 1B 5 Antares 37, DH 1A 6 Arion 37, DH 1A 7 Didimon 37, DH 8 Delphi 37, DH LNG 1 Neo Energy 85, DH 9
10 Our Fleet Our Pride 10
11 Secured Revenues Based on employable dates subject to change based on new deliveries and potential changes to in chartering policy (so far) 70% 43% Fixed to dated Fixed to dated Minimum Revenues (guaranteed) $290m Minimum Revenues (guaranteed) $140m 39 vessels with period employment (profit-share vessels only at min. rates) have secured: 780 months forward coverage (1.7 years per ship) $572 million in min. revenues 11
12 What We Need To Keep Up The Step Up?? Structural changes and improved ship designs have led to higher base rates over the last three decades Flight to quality has raised the floor for double hull tankers TEN s modern double-hull fleet on the forefront of reaping the rewards $50,000 $46,000 $40,000 $35,500 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $12,714 $10,134 $9,388 $25,473 $17,890 $15,873 $27,350 $ VLCC Suezmax Aframax Source: Clarkson Research Studies 12
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