18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 1

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1 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 1

2 Agenda 1. Industry Facts 2. Ship recycling Boom and Corrections 3. Ship Recycling: Source of Recovery? 4. Changing Role of Cash Buyer 5. Closing Thoughts 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 2

3 1.1. Industry Facts Cash Buying has evolved into a huge industry with large economic, environmental and social impacts. In 2012 alone, roughly $5.1 billion worth of scrap ships were purchased for recycling. Throughout 2012 about 56.5 million DWT was recycled vs. total of 40.6 million in 2011 Dry Bulk: 35.7 mill DWT vs mill in 2011 Wet: 13.7 mill DWT vs mill in 2011 Average age: years old years old years old INDUSTRY BREAKDOWN (2012) Note: all figures are approximates INDIAN SUB CONTINENT CHINA TURKEY No. of Vessels Lightweight (lt) 8,790,220 2,027, ,401 Amount (US$) 3.9 bill 850 mill 283 mill 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 3

4 1.2. Where it is done (Capacity) Number of active yards in each Country: Indian subcontinent India ( of ) Bangladesh (70-80 of ) Pakistan (110 of 129) China (16 of 20) Turkey (20) Note: all figures are approximates These 5 countries (with 80% Asian) recycle more than 95% of the world s fleet. 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 4

5 India 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 5

6 India 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 6

7 India 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 7

8 China 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 8

9 China 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 9

10 2.1. Historical Highs Ship Recycling BOOM and 2013! Million Dwt 9 Million LDT Million Dwt 11.7 Million LDT September Million Dwt 7.9 Million LDT Note: All figures are approximate 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 10

11 2.2. Bulk Carriers Sold for Recycling 2011 (No./DWT) 2012 (No./DWT) 2013 YTD (No./DWT) Capesize 74 11,533, ,885, ,734,449 Panamax 66 4,481, ,945, ,438,242 Handymax 48 2,239, ,630, ,715,547 Handysize 291 6,536, ,459, ,663,369 Minibulk , , ,065 Total ,301, ,376, ,985,722 Source: Allied Shipbroking Inc. November th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 11

12 2.3 Tankers Sold For Recycling 2011 (No./DWT) 2012 (No./ DWT) 2013 YTD (No./ DWT) ULCC 2 618, , ,564,191 VLCC 12 3,239, ,209, ,727,514 Suezmax 7 1,002, ,239, ,347,458 Aframax 28 2,656, ,714, ,168,617 Panamax 6 411, , ,937 Product 68 2,207, ,033, ,394,146 Minitank , , ,707 Total ,361, ,741, ,863,570 Source: Allied Shipbroking Inc. November th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 12

13 2.4. Baltic Demolition Assessment D/TKR CHINA D/TKR SUBCON C/TKR CHINA C/TKR SUBCON B/C CHINA B/C SUBCON /1/7 2013/2/7 2013/3/7 2013/4/7 2013/5/7 2013/6/7 2013/7/7 2013/8/7 2013/9/7 2013/10/7 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 13

14 2.5. Factors that Affect Pricing 1. Supply 2. Demand 3. Steel Prices 4. Currency exchange rates 5. Government Regulations 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 14

15 2.6. Steel Prices Currency 2013: India IR on 1 st January : per USD / Steel prices: IR 26,000 per 12 mm scrap metal IR on 28 th August: 68.34!!! / Steel prices: IR 25,900 IR on 1 st September: / Steel prices: IR 26,600 IR on 1 st October: / Steel prices: IR 26,800 IR on 1 st November: / Steel prices: IR 26,000 28, , , , , , , , , , , , STEEL INDIA (RS) STEEL INDIA (RS) STEEL INDIA (USD) INDIA (USD) 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 15

16 2.7. Steel Prices Currency 2013: Pakistan PKR on 1 st January : per USD / Steel prices: PKR 52,000 per 12 mm scrap metal PKR on 1 st August: / Steel prices: PKR 54,500 PKR on 1 st September: / Steel prices: PKR 54,500 PKR on 1 st October: / Steel Prices: PKR 55,000 PKR on 1 st November: !!! / Steel Prices: PKR 55,500 57, , , , , , , , STEEL PAKISTAN (PKR) STEEL PAKISTAN (PKR) STEEL PAKISTAN (USD) PAKISTAN USD th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 16

17 2.8. Steel Prices Currency 2013: Bangladesh BDT on 1 st January : per USD / Steel prices: BDT 42,500 per 12 mm scrap metal BDT on 1 st August: / Steel prices: BDT 35,100 BDT on 1 st September: / Steel prices: BDT 32,000!!! BDT on 1 st October : /Steel prices: BDT 34,200 BDT on 1 st November: / Steel prices: BDT 35,100 45, , , , , , , , , STEEL BANGLADESH (BDT) STEEL BANGLADESH (BDT) STEEL BANGLADESH (USD) BANGLADESH USD 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 17

18 3.1 Recovery(?): Capesize Chartering earnings: from region USD 4.9k/day during beginning of January 2013 to region USD 40k /day during end of September. Improvement of more than 700%!!! BCI 2013 / September BCI October /2/13 2/2/13 3/2/13 4/2/13 5/2/13 6/2/13 7/2/13 8/2/13 9/2/ BCI BCI On 4 th November abt USD 19k /day 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 18

19 3.2. Recovery(?): Panamax Chartering earnings: from region USD 5.3k/day during beginning of January 2013 to region USD 14.3k /day during end of September. Improvement of about 169.8%!!! BPI 2013 / September BPI October BPI BPI /2/13 2/2/13 3/2/13 4/2/13 5/2/13 6/2/13 7/2/13 8/2/13 9/2/ On 4 th November abt USD 13k /day 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 19

20 3.3. Bulk Carriers: The effect of chartering improvement 1/3/12 2/3/12 3/3/12 4/3/12 5/3/12 6/3/12 7/3/12 8/3/12 9/3/12 10/3/12 11/3/12 12/3/12 As of September 2013 drop of about: 40% comparing to the total fleet recycled in 2012 Or 48% comparing to the total DWT supplied in BDI 2012 BDI BDI 2013 BDI BDI October 2013 BDI 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 20

21 3.4 Beaching vs. Newbuilding TANKERS SCRAPPED 2011 NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK JAN 2012 % SCRAPPED 2012 NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK JAN 2013 % ULCC/VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX PANAMAX MR TANKER MINI TANK BULKERS SCRAPPED 2011 NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK JAN 2012 % SCRAPPED 2012 NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK JAN 2013 % CAPESIZE PANAMAX SUPRAMAX HANDYSIZE MINI BULK th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 21

22 4.1 Ship Recycling & Changing role of Cash Buyers Important Pillar of Shipping (facilitates market balance) Newbuilding record years (pre-2008) Recycling record years (2012-?) Impact of Ship Recycling on: New Building Orders Charter rates (new/old ships, availability, etc.) Sale and Purchase (2 nd values at par with scrap values) Ship Finance (residual values and future acquisitions) Developments in Ship Design and Fuel Efficiency Cash Buyers as a source of vessel financing High Deposits and Loans Asset acquisitions (Companies, Vessels) Sale/Leaseback (BBC) Private Equity 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 22

23 4.1 Ship Finance Facts and Trends Top 40 Shipping Banks = $408 BILLION worth of exposure to the sector Accounts for about 78% of global ship finance Roughly 75% of this exposure comes from European banks As of June, 42% of these institutions claimed to be prepared to lend while it was only 22% one year earlier (but these banks are focusing on conservative deals with Top Tier, existing owners/clients Many banks with a legacy book are more reluctant to lend as they are overexposed to previous bad deals Increased pressure on European banks is making portfolio sales more likely perhaps creating a more liquid market ~Source: NORD LB 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 23

24 4.2 Ship Finance Facts and Trends 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 24

25 4.3 (cont.) Ship Finance Facts and Trends With traditional banks more reluctant to lend, we now witness a more eclectic financing mix (blurred lines in terms of PE) Capital Markets (ie Scorpio w/ $230+ mill.) Private Equity (Wilbur Ross Navigator Gas Transport) Aircraft style leasing and/or sale leaseback transactions The USA based capital markets have gone through a Renaissance of sorts as it applies to ship finance Slowly but surely, European banks will become more aggressive For the moment, however, PE seems to be taking the stage although most of the deals are accompanied by some sort of bank financing as well 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 25

26 4.4 GMS in PE Markets GMS Examples of Private Equity Transactions : Example 1 Acquisition of Existing Company (i.e. Konig & Cie) Example 2 Struggling Owner Needs Cash GMS Buys 50% of vessel acts as JV partner Example 3 Owner Needs to Sell Vessel but Wants to Continue Operations GMS buys 100% of the vessel and structures a sale leaseback / BB back Example 4 - Cash strapped owner wants to buy a new vessel but has no funds on hand GMS buys the new asset and takes in one of the owner s older assets as a down payment and holds a note for the balance Example 4 Owner does not want to handle recycling of the vessel GMS buys vessel clean or with cash flows attached and maintains ownership for set period of time until current employment obligations expire and vessel is recycled 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 26

27 5. Closing Thoughts 1) Ship recycling is a critical aspect of greater maritime industry 2) With return of newbuildings, weak freight markets and large inventory of vessels, life cycle of ships continue to get shorter 3) Cash Buyers play a major role in the ship recycling process 4) Environmentally safe and responsible ship recycling programs exist in several countries, including India. However, headline risk often has a greater impact on the decision making process than facts 5) Japanese ship owners have an exceptional opportunity to occupy a leadership position in the green ship recycling industry. 6) Time to act is now! 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 27

28 Established in USA in 1992.LARGEST CASH BUYER IN THE WORLD! In last two years, principals of GMS have delivered more than a quarter of the world s fleet sold for recycling. World's FIRST ISO 9001:2000 certified Cash Buyer. EXCLUSIVE sales offices in all FIVE of the major ship recycling markets in the world (Bangladesh, China, India, Pakistan and Turkey). Offices in USA, UAE, SINGAPORE and CHINA to provide 24/7 service to clients worldwide. Financial and Management capability to: Buy fleets on simple CASH "as is where is terms. Take forward positions Structure deals Leader in Green Recycling: IMO s Hong Kong Convention Safe and Responsible Ship Recycling Programs Development of Green Yards 18th November 2013 GMS Ship Recycling Conference - Tokyo 28

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