Ship Scrapping - Market Pressures. IMSF Oslo Foteini Kanellopoulou, Senior Analyst 23 May 2012
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1 Ship Scrapping - Market Pressures IMSF Oslo Foteini Kanellopoulou, Senior Analyst 23 May 212
2 Disclaimer The material and the information contained herein (together, the "Information") are provided by H. Clarkson & Co. Ltd ("Clarksons") for general information purposes. The Information is drawn from Clarksons' database and other sources. Clarksons advises that: (i) any Information extracted from Clarksons' database is derived from estimates or subjective judgments; (ii) any Information extracted from the databases of other maritime data collection agencies may differ from the Information extracted from Clarksons' database; (iii) whilst Clarksons has taken reasonable care in the compilation of the Information and believes it to be accurate and correct, data compilation is subject to limited audit and validation procedures and may accordingly contain errors; (iv) the provision of the Information does not obviate any need to make appropriate further enquiries; (v) the provision of the Information is not an endorsement of any commercial policies and/or any conclusions by Clarksons and its connected persons, and is not intended to recommend any decision by the recipient; (vi) shipping is a variable and cyclical business and any forecasting concerning it cannot be very accurate. Clarksons and its connected persons make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the Information. Any reliance placed on such Information is therefore strictly at the recipient's own risk. This Information is confidential and is solely for the internal use of the recipient. Neither the whole nor any part of the Information may be disclosed to, or used or relied upon by, any other person or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Clarksons. Especially, the information is not to be used in any document for the purposes of raising finance whether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual property rights are fully reserved. To the extent permitted by law, Clarksons and its connected persons shall not be liable to the recipient or any third party for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of or in connection with the Information, including without limitation any direct, special, indirect or consequential damages (eg damage for loss of business or loss of profits) whether caused by tort (including negligence), breach of contract or otherwise, even if foreseeable. These exclusions do not apply to (i) death or personal injury caused by the negligence of Clarksons and its connected persons or (ii) the liability of Clarksons and its connected persons for fraudulent misrepresentation. In this disclaimer connected persons means, in relation to Clarksons, its ultimate holding company, the shareholders, subsidiaries and subsidiary undertakings of its ultimate holding company and the respective directors, officers, employees and agents of each of them. This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with English law. H. CLARKSON & CO. LTD, ST. MAGNUS HOUSE, 3 LOWER THAMES STREET, LONDON, EC3R 6HE TELEPHONE +44 () May 212
3 % y-o-y change Global Economic Outlook GDP Growth World China India Latin America & Caribs Sub-Sah Africa Distribution of World Economic Growth OECD Non-OECD 1 18% 34% % 66% Data source: IMF 23 May 212
4 Billion people Million people Growing World Population Impact on Energy, Food & Transportation OECD CHINA INDIA OTHER ASIA AFRICA R.O.W 1.3 billion Population Dynamics Population % Growth 25 2% 19% 18% 2 16% 14% 5 12% % 8% 1% 1% 8% 6% % 4% 2% % Data source: US Census Bureau 23 May 212
5 billion tonnes Growing World Trade Total Seaborne Trade % Trade Growth Iron Ore Coal Grain Minor Bulk Container Oil Liq Gas Other % %,3 bn tonnes 125% 7 1% % 5% 25% % 133% 85% 45% 132% 1% 6% 12% Data Source: Clarksons 23 May 212
6 Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Index (25=1) Index (25=1) Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Index (25=1) Index (25=1) Commodity Price Indices 25 Industrial Materials Index current 3 Metals Index current Food Index current 3 Energy Index current Data source: IMF 23 May 212
7 y-o-y % chg. Industrial Production Key Economies USA Europe Japan China India Data source: Clarksons 23 May 212
8 Million tonnes Million tonnes Million tonnes Million tonnes Iron Ore Imports & Steel Production Levels Iron Ore Imports Steel Production 1,2 1, World (RH-axis) S. Korea (LH-axis) Japan (LH-axis) China (LH-axis) ,6 1,4 1,2 World (RH-axis) South Korea (LH-axis) Japan (LH-axis) China (LH-axis) , Data source: World Steel Association/Clarksons 23 May 212
9 Million tonnes % share World Steel Scrap for Steelmaking Crude Steel Production Steel Scrap Use Share Scrap Use/Crude Steel Steelworks Purchase of Scrap 1,5 1, Data source: BIR/Clarksons 23 May 212
10 Now Million gross tonnes All Types* Orderbook Development (>999GT) 4 35 gas carrier 3 25 container ship 2 bulk carrier 1 tanker 5 Data source: Clarksons 23 May 212
11 % of the existing fleet tonnage capacity Main Sectors Summary Fleet Components Orderbook Built since 2 >yr old Crude Tanker Product Tanker Specialised Tanker Dry Bulk Containerships LNG LPG Data source: Clarksons 23 May 212
12 ytd No. of vessels $ per day Fleet Removals* vs. Clarksea Index Crude Tanker Product Tanker Specialised Tanker** Bulker Containership LPG LNG Clarksea Index 4, 35, 3, 25, 2,, 1, 5, Note: *includes demolitions, losses & removals ** excludes those in product tanker fleet analysis Data source: Clarksons 23 May 212
13 ytd ytd ytd years of age Removed Fleet Age Profile Evolvement - Tankers Crude Tanker Product Tanker Specialised Tanker Avg. Age Min Age Avg. Age Min Age Avg. Age Min Age yrs old yrs old yrs old Note: Dashed line represents the average age 1996-ytd Data source: Clarksons 23 May 212
14 ytd years of age years of age ytd ytd years of age years of age Removed Fleet Age Profile Evolvement - Dry & Gas Dry Bulk LPG yrs old Avg. Age Min. Age 4 3 Avg. Age Min Age 3yrs old Containership LNG yrs old Avg. Age Min Age yrs old Avg. Age Min Age Note: Dashed line represents the average age 1996-ytd Data source: Clarksons 23 May 212
15 Jan- Jul- Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-2 Jul-2 Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 $ per tonne $ per barrel Oil Price vs. Bunker Prices cst HSFO Gas Oil Brent Crude Oil Correl (brent, 38cst HSFO) =97% Correl (brent, 38cst HS) =76% 3 Note: Rotterdam bunker prices Data source: Oceanconnect 23 May 212
16 Jan-9 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan- Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 $ per day $ per day 3, 25, 2, Spot Freight Market ytd Aframax MR P'max Bulker Aframax MR P'max Bulker 9, 8, 7, 6,, 1, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4,526 2, 1, 3,558 Data Source: Clarksons 23 May 212
17 Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 $ per day $ million Cross Market Rates vs. Prices Aframax P max Bulker P max Container 1yr TC rate yr old D/H Price 45 5yr old Price Scrap Price 9 9 1yr TC rate yr old Price 5yr old Price Scrap Price yr TC rate yr old Price 5yr old Price Data Source: Clarksons 23 May 212
18 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 $million yr old vs. Scrap Price Differential Aframax Tanker MR Tanker P max Bulker yr old S/H vs. Scrap Price yr old D/H vs. Scrap Price Current 5 1 Data Source: Clarksons 23 May 212
19 Million dwt Million dwt Million dwt Tanker Orderbook vs. Older Tonnage Crude Tanker Orderbook vs. yr old Fleet Product Tanker Orderbook vs. 2yr old Fleet Specialised* Tanker Orderbook vs. 2yr old Fleet Data source: Clarksons *including IMO vessels in the product tanker fleet 23 May 212
20 Million teu Million cbm Million dwt Million cbm Dry & Gas Carrier Orderbook vs. Older Tonnage Dry Bulk Orderbook vs. 2yr old Fleet LPG Orderbook vs. 25yr old Fleet Containership Orderbook vs. 2yr old Fleet 12 LNG Orderbook vs. 3yr old Fleet Data source: Clarksons 23 May 212
21 Concerns when operating old tonnage Voyage Expenses Operating Expenses Drydocking Costs New Technology Fuel Efficiency ECA Requirements Ballast Water Emissions and other environmental issues 23 May 212
22 Thanks for your attention! 23 May 212
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