Weekly Dry Bulk Report

Transcription

1 9 -Shipbrokers and consultants since ly Dry Bulk Report 22 May 3th HIGHLIGHTS Capesize: Boost in fixtures for C5 towards the weekend Panamax: Pacific activity slowly increasing ECSA grains showing its presence L&S INDEX OF DRY BULK STOCKS* Index 214 Index 215 CAPESIZE Monday and Tuesday saw minimal activity, with China back to work on Wednesday there seemed to be a bit of a hangover in the market from the Holidays. Chinese operators was not back in full swing for C5 cargoes, although RGL was in the market for a Mid-March loading, bidding US$4.25/mt. Towards the end of the week C5 saw a boost in fixtures, most With the Lunar New Year celebrations, the Pacific has seen virtually no activity at the start PANAMAX of this week. There are cargoes starting to filter into the market, mainly coal from Indonesia or Australia/ China or India. Charterers are rating US$3 5/ day for Kamsarmax tonnage, delivery South China- Taiwan region for a trip via East Coast Australia/ East Coast India. There has been some increased activity for Panamaxes/ Post Panamaxes on the Richards Bay/ India Route, Oldendorff recently fixed the Jag Aditi for this run at APS US$6 /day+ US$ 165 ballast bonus. Currently, tonnage is seen being offered at US$6 /day + 2 ballast bonus for mid March loading on the same run. Pacific activity and rates have slowly been increasing as the week has gone on. North Pacific and Australia rounds have increased now able to fix DOP rates again. East Coast South America grain is also making its presence, the expectation is that the East Coast South America grain season of the vessels have been fixed for 1/2 March ETA at between US$4.4- US$4.5/mt. East Coast Australia has remained quiet in comparison, owners with prompt tonnage are not having much luck with cargoes on the market for 1 st April onwards out of Newcastle. Heading towards the Atlantic, AAML have not been particularly active on the spot market recently, they had a 5/6 March cargo which was later withdrawn. The front haul market has not seen a great number of fixtures, although the Nymphe ETA Tubarao 14 th March was fixed early this Friday, reportedly to Vale at US$1.35/mt. Capesize Timecharter Average (TCA). 5 Yr High 5 Yr Low 5 Yr Avg 215 ytd FFAs as of today should be about to kick fully in to gear. Hopefully road blockages in Brazil won t have a negative impact (see page3 for more info). The rates for modern eco tonnage delivery East Coast South America second half of March is APS US$11 3/day + 13 ballast bonus. Panamax Timecharter Average (TCA) 5 year High 5 year Low 5 year average 215 Ytd FFAs as of today *Basket of stocks for L&S Index includes: Golden Ocean Group Ltd., Western Bulk ASA, Scorpio Bulkers Inc., Paragon Shipping Inc., Baltic Trading Ltd., Diana Shipping Inc., DryShips Inc., Safe Bulkers Inc., and Star Bulk Carriers Corp. 1

2 Supramax/Handy: Starting to see some thinning out of tonnage SUPRAMAX/HANDY A bit more activity on the Handy/ Supra sizes in both basins this week, despite the holidays in the Far East. We are starting to see some thinning out of tonnage in certain areas which is helping to push the market upwards from the low levels recently seen. Indonesia/ India coal runs were improving slightly towards the end of week, we still see APS rates but at slightly improved numbers of US$7 /day. North Pacific voyages also saw a slight uptick with reports of fixing at low US$7 /day + low US$1 in ballast bonus. In the Atlantic, front haul routes remained still in the US$11-12 /day range. Trans-Atlantic routes were also showing a slight upturn. Handysize ships in the gulf were also seeing some slight Shipbrokers and consultants since Supramax Timecharter Average (TCA) improvements for trips. On the continent a slimming list of open tonnage saw rates improve for both sizes. East Coast South America remains steady over the previous week. 5 year High 5 year Low 5 year average 215 ytd The Baltic Exchange Dry Index Last This Trend ly Baltic Average BCI () Softening ly Baltic Average BPI () Firming ly Baltic Average BSI () Firming ly Baltic Average BHI () Firming ly BDI Average () Firming FFA Last This Trend Calendar 16 BCI () Firming Calendar 16 BPI () Softening Calendar 16 BSI () Firming 5TC+Q1 (Cape) () Softening 5TC+Q2 (Cape) () Softening 5TC+Q3 (Cape) () Softening 5TC+Q4 (Cape) () Softening Bunker Prices Last This Trend Rotterdam IFO 38 (US$/mt) Softening Rotterdam MGO (US$/mt) Softening Singapore IFO 38 (US$/mt) Softening Singapore MGO (US$/mt) Softening 2

3 Iron Ore Iron Ore: Vale posted a loss of US$1.85 billion for Q4 Export prices of Brazilian iron ore averaged about US$46/ mt last week, down about 11.5 per cent from first week of February at US$52.5/mt FOB. Vale posted a loss of US$1.85 billion for the fourth quarter due to plunging iron ore prices and increased debt costs on a weakening currency. The foreign exchange and monetary loss reduced the profit by US$1.26 billion. Vale sold its iron ore at an average price of US$61.6/mt. This is a 48 per cent decline y -o-y. Jefferies mining analyst expects iron ore prices to fall further over the next three to six months. Base metals such as nickel and copper operations also posted weak results. Coal Coal: Glencore to cut 15 mill. mt of production this year According to National Bureau of Statistics, coal output in China fell 2.5 per cent last year while coal consumption fell by 2.9 per cent. In 214 China used 5.9 per cent more crude oil and 8.6 per cent more natural gas. Analysts are arguing that we are seeing signs of Chinas peak coal. Demand for coal in Europe and the US is also shrinking. Glencore announced that they will cut coal production in Australia by 15 million mt this year as an effect of reduced demand. The company's chief executive has stated that Glencore will not put more products in to the market at a time of weaker demand, and has criticized other big miners of overwhelming the market with raw materials, contributing to the price plunge. Grain Soy and Corn deliveries to one of Brazil s main ports are delayed due to lorry drivers protesting against the high cost of fuel and tolls. Santos is one of the ports blocked. The situation is worrying for the Western Mato Grosso state, as they account for most of the soya bean production in Brazil. Much of the harvested soy is now waiting in silos or trucks to be exported. Protest leaders have been invited for a meeting in Brasilia to come to an agreement. Other Bulks Copper and nickel prices are down about 1 per cent since the start of the year. The outlook remains sluggish as demand from China is slowing down. As of today, China accounts for 4 per cent of global demand of nickel. Copper is currently trading at around US$ 5 67/mt after hitting US$5 33/mt in late January. 3

4 BCI FFA Cal 16 5 TC Cal 15 5 TC Cal 15 4 TC BCI-TCA BPI FFA Cal 16 Cal BPI-TCA ytd BSI FFA Cal16 Cal 15 BSI-TCA ytd BHI-TCA ytd 4

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