Weekly Dry Bulk Report

Transcription

1 5 ly Dry Bulk Report 22 May 3th HIGHLIGHTS Capesize: Few shipments into China Panamax: Rates still declining L&S INDEX OF DRY BULK STOCKS* Index 214 Index 215 CAPESIZE PANAMAX Rates continued to decline with no signs of a better market. The Pacific was depressed with a number of ships fixing and failing on subjects. A large modern economic type was reported fixed from North China via Australia to the Arabian Gulf with redelivery passing Muscat outbound at just US$3 5/day. From Indonesia a vessel of 87 dwt was reported fixing a trip from Samarinda to West coast India at US$4 5/day plus US$5 ballast bonus. In the Atlantic, from East coast South America to the East a Despite the national holiday in Australia this Monday we saw a relatively active start to the week for West Australia- Qingdao. BHP was rumored to have taken up to 4 vessels around US$4.5/mt for 7-11 February loadings. RTS was also in the market for similar dates but have so far only taken a single ship at US$4.4/mt. There is still a dearth of East Coast Australian coal cargoes for the second half of February, meaning that many of the older 15 dwt type vessels will be looking for other employment. Tuesday and Wednesday was quiet, aside from a couple of West Australia/ Qingdao cargoes. Last done for C5 was US$4.4/mt at this time. Anglo American fixed LDCs Shandong Hua Zhang for a Saldanha Bay/Qingdao run at US US$7.99/mt. This route was back to US$7.5/mt by the vessel of 81 dwt was reported fixing basis delivery Santos at US$11 3/day plus US$13 ballast bonus. The list of vessels in ballast from the Indian Ocean and South East Asia to East Coast South America is long. New US Gulf cargoes were scarce and cargoes that came into the market were fixed at much lower level Capesize Timecharter Average (TCA) middle of the week. Vale was heard to be looking for a ship to cover 5-14 February for Tubarao/Qingdao. Front haul has been disappointing throughout the week with February cargoes scarce and the bid/offer for 1 st Half March is US$1/mt vs US$11.25/mt. 5 Yr High 5 Yr Low 5 Yr Avg 215 ytd Panamax Timecharter Average (TCA) A modern 76 dwt ship was fixed from the US Gulf to China at US$1 /day with no ballast bonus and a 74 dwt on the same route at US$9 75/ day. There was some period activity, including a vessel of 76 dwt being taken by a grain house for 8 to 12 months delivery Zhoushan at US$7 25/day. 5 year High 5 year Low 5 year average 215 Ytd *Basket of stocks for L&S Index includes: Golden Ocean Group Ltd., Western Bulk ASA, Scorpio Bulkers Inc., Paragon Shipping Inc., Baltic Trading Ltd., Diana Shipping Inc., DryShips Inc., Safe Bulkers Inc., and Star Bulk Carriers Corp. 1

2 Supramax/Handy: Another tough week SUPRAMAX/HANDY Another tough week for the Supra/Handy sizes. Indonesian coal to India was being quoted on arrival pilot station between US$6-7 /day and US$5 / day back to China, although there were not many cargoes for the China direction. Indonesia to Thailand was fixed at between US$4-5 /day arrival pilot station. For Supramaxes opening in China/Japan the picture was not much better, North Pacific rounds were seen at low US$6 /day + US$1 in ballast bonus. Trips to Persian Gulf were rated at US$7-8 /day. With the upcoming Chinese New Year we don t anticipate much improvement in the very near future. The situation is not much better in the Atlantic. Front haul/ US Gulf route continued to struggle at between US$ / day. Trans-Atlantic rates were Supramax Timecharter Average (TCA) still holding sub US$1 /day. East Coast South America was down slightly on the previous week with fixtures being reported at about US$1 /day plus 1 in ballast bonus. Trips to the continent were reported at around US$8 /day. 5 year High 5 year Low 5 year average 215 ytd The Baltic Exchange Dry Index Last This Trend % change ly Baltic Average BCI () Softening -11% ly Baltic Average BPI () Softening -16% ly Baltic Average BSI () Softening -8% ly Baltic Average BHI () Softening -11% ly BDI Average () Softening -11% FFA Last This Trend % change Calendar 16 BCI () Softening -4% Calendar 16 BPI () Softening -1% Calendar 16 BSI () Firming 1% 5TC+Q1 (Cape) () Softening -12% 5TC+Q2 (Cape) () Softening -9% 5TC+Q3 (Cape) () Softening -4% 5TC+Q4 (Cape) () Softening -7% Bunker Prices Last This Trend % change Rotterdam IFO 38 (US$/mt) Softening -1% Rotterdam MGO (US$/mt) Softening -1% Singapore IFO 38 (US$/mt) Firming 2% Singapore MGO (US$/mt) Firming 1% 2

3 Iron Ore Iron Ore: Prices continue to fall Prices continued to fall to US$62.3/mt this Thursday, last time we saw these prices was in May 29. Plentiful supply of Chinese steel has caused prices to slump by 8 per cent during the past two weeks. Going forward we expect a further slow down in demand ahead of the Lunar New Year in mid- February, which could contribute to push prices even lower. 214 results show a 14 per cent decrease in Chinese steel prices and a 3.4 per cent fall in steel demand. Coal Coal: 43 ships heading to Australia to load coal this week 43 ships were heading to Australia s Newcastle port this week to load coal cargoes, up from 38 ships last week. In addition, 13 ships were waiting for a berthing slot and nine ships were loading cargo at the three coal terminals. Last week, average waiting time for berthing slots was 4.8 days, down from 6 days the previous week. US miner Peabody Energy expects growth in global metallurgical coal demand to outstrip supply this year, as Asian demand increase for the first time since 211. Sales from their Australian mines rose 1.7 per cent from the previous year in 214, according to the company s fourth-quarter report. Demand is expected to be driven by increased appetite from Indian steelmakers and additional infrastructure projects this year. The company s opex fell 8.3 per cent y-o-y on thermal and metallurgical operation in Australia to US$68.5/mt. Costs are expected to fall further in 215 to US$65/mt due to a weaker Australian dollar and lower diesel prices. Grain Other Bulks Argentina s corn and wheat shipments may come out stronger than previously expected, if the upcoming elections means the end of Ms Fernandez presidency. Argentina is then expected to see a more liberal grain export regime. Corn and wheat export volumes are currently regulated by the Government which also collects taxes of 2 per cent on corn and 23 per cent on wheat shipments. Chinas import of nickel ore and concentrates fell by 61.7 per cent y-o-y and 13.3 per cent month on month in December. Import from the Philippines, Chinas largest supplier rose by 73.3 per cent y-o-y in December. Nickel ore and concentrate imports to China are expected to continue falling the next months as shipments from the Philippines are affected by monsoons in Southeast Asia. 3

4 BCI FFA Cal 16 5 TC Cal 15 5 TC Cal 15 4 TC BCI-TCA BPI FFA Cal 16 Cal BPI-TCA ytd BSI FFA Cal16 Cal 15 BSI-TCA ytd BHI-TCA ytd 4

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