SOME OBSERVATIONS & SOME CALCULATIONS RELATED TO THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE

Transcription

1 SOME OBSERVATIONS & SOME CALCULATIONS RELATED TO THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE Henrik Falck February 14 th. 2012

2 Sydvaranger Gruve Northern Iron - In 2006, Tschudi Shipping Company bought the closed down iron ore mine in Kirkenes, Northern Norway. - In November 2009 the first Panamax loaded for China with of cargo. - In September 2010 we did the first transit through the Northern Sea Route. - Annual production in 2011 was 2 mill. mt with forecast for 2012 at 2,9 mill. mt. The company Northern Iron is listed on the Australian stock exchange (ASX) Ticker code NFE Tschudi controls 25% of the outstanding shares today.

3 Tschudi Kirkenes 20 km from Russian Border Our Bulk Terminal in Kirkenes is able To load vessels up to dwt In addition we have: m 2 quay with draft of 8,2 m m 3 covered warehouse m 3 silo storage m 2 levelled area for further development

4 Perception of Distance Legend Hydrographic Office Stations Traditional Tracks New Deepwater Track Alternative DW Track

5 Bilbao - Kirkenes - Bering Strait

6 Rotterdam to Yokohama is 40% shorter, - yes, but Rotterdam is (normally) a discharge port. For Kirkenes as the western entry/exit point to the NSR and as a loading port the saving is 56%. For Yamal the saving is 64%.

7 Price differentials

8 NSR in 2011 Suez Panama 34 vessels vessels vessels

9 ICE TONNAGE NEGATIVE POSITIVE More expensive to build Higher fuel consumtion Less cargo intake Get extra paid when in ice, - NSR complement the Baltic ice season 18 days saved * 20 years technical life time = 1 year extra trading

10 Distance advantage minimum 55% Price differentials Percentile of world trade Ice classed tonnage For me the NSR is a niche in a small segment of the market. Ice class being the niche and the Arctic being the segment. But, for some products and some trades it will be a very important and profitable niche.

11 I will go through and discuss 3 different calculations: 1: LNG from Melkøya 2: Finland Dry Cargo 3: Cars from FEAST to Murmansk

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13 Savings in USD for 21,4 days saved in time. LNG from Melkøya to Yokohama cbm Full roundvoyage - Spot market rate usd 15/mmBtu Timecharter per day usd * 21,4 * 2 usd Bunkers burn off lng 0,1% per day * 21,4 * 2 usd Suez round voyage cost usd NSR tariff usd 5 * mt + usd 3,5 * (usd ) Savings usd

14 LNG from Melkøya to Yokohama cbm Full roundvoyage - Spot market rate usd 15/mmBtu Add 3 roundtrips per season and you get a total of usd 25 million Add that Yamal is another 8 days (roundtrip) better positioned Then we all understand that we are talking about unlocking the High North in general and Siberia in particular.

15 Potential Savings Going East: NSR usd 15 Plus/minus railtariff usd?? Total savings usd?? Going West: The distance from Rotterdam is the same to Kirkenes and Kemi (11 naut.miles diff.) Sariselka, 20. April

16 KEMI SUEZ - SHANGHAI

17 KIRKENES NSR - SHANGHAI

18 SAVINGS ARE TOO LARGE TO BE IGNORED Kemi Suez Shanghai Kirkenes NSR Shanghai Savings 39 days 21 days 18 days

19 Savings per tonn of cargo (comparing same size of vessel) 1. Timecharter per day usd * 18 usd Bunkers fuel 33 * 700 * 18 usd Bunkers diesel 1 * 950 * 18 usd Suez cost usd NSR tariff 5 * (usd ) Savings usd Savings p/t basis t usd 14,80 (was usd 20 in December)

20 Savings per tonn (comparing Handysize and Panamax) In today s market the timecharter rates for a Handysize and a Panamax is about the same, - usd per day for a trip from the Atlantic to the Pacific. At this level the economy of scale will represent another additional saving of usd 10,00 per ton using the NSR and usd 15,00 per ton via Suez.

21 Import of cars from Far East Saving in sailing time Yokohama to Kirkenes compared to St. Petersburg is 23 days. Ice class will require smaller vessels, so something will be lost in economy of scale. 1 handling saved (in/out storage Continent). Trucking will be reduced with km.

22 2 000 km saved on road can be more valuable than nm saved on sea.

23 Final remarks: For LNG the NSR is of extreme importance because the price for transportation is high and the price differential is high. For dry cargo we are in a market where the NSR is losing its advantage because it is cheaper to sail a Capesize vessel via Cape than a Handy/Panamax via NSR. For all freight comparison it is important to include all the various elements in the logistical chain.

24 You are all welcome to use our future terminal in Kirkenes. NSR WEST. 24

25 Join us and look for opportunities in the High North