Weekly Dry Bulk Report
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- Frederick Cobb
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1 22 -Shipbrokers and consultants since ly Dry Bulk Report 22 May 3th 214 HIGHLIGHTS Capesize: A more active market throughout the week Panamax: Front haul market saw slightly more activity, not enough to have positive impact on rates CAPESIZE Holidays in both Asia and Europe made a quiet start to the week. C5 continued where it left off on Friday at bid/offer US$4.8/mt vs US$5/mt. Tuesday and Wednesday became more active, with rates for C5 leveling up slightly to US$5.1/ mt. On Thursday, West Australian rates were slightly up with last done at US$5.15/mt. Friday was more quiet from the majors. East Coast Australia saw some more cargoes; BHP fixed a ship for Hay Point/Qingdao 12/24 June at US$5.55/mt. Rates moved further up during the week with Haypoint/Qingdao cargoes up to a touch over US$6/mt for mid- June dates. A few Saldanha Bay cargoes were marketed by the start of the week; Superior for 17/23 June saw offers at US$8.5/mt. Superior fixed their Saldanha cargo mid-week to Glovis, who in turn fixed the Navios Altimira at US$8.4/mt. Anglo also took a ship at US$8.2/mt for 1/12 June. It has been a fairly slow week for front haul; Oldendorff fixed a CSN/Qingdao cargo at US$11.5/mt. Capesize Timecharter Average (TCA). 5 Yr High 5 Yr Low 5 Yr Avg 215 ytd FFAs as of today L&S INDEX OF DRY BULK STOCKS Index 214 Index 215 Basket of stocks for L&S Index includes: Golden Ocean Group Ltd., Western Bulk ASA, Scorpio Bulkers Inc., Paragon Shipping Inc., Baltic Trading Ltd., Diana Shipping Inc., DryShips Inc., Safe Bulkers Inc., and Star Bulk Carriers Corp. PANAMAX The Panamax market also started on a quiet note due to National Holidays, and we saw rates across the market softening. Indonesia/China rounds were fixing around US$4 5/ day with longer trips in the pacific at a touch above US$5 /day. Kamsarmax owners were rating US$5 57/day mid - week for trips to EC India. Towards the weekend, charterers were seen paying US$6 5/day for ships open in the Singapore region for Geraldton/China. Owners open South Korea were rating around US$5 25/day for North Pacific round voyages. The front haul market saw slightly more activity, unfortunately not enough to have any positive impact on rates. APS rates were at around US$ Panamax Timecharter Average (TCA) 5/day + US$95 ballast bonus for large modern economic tonnage. Charterers were also seen looking at tonnage on a passing Cape of Good Hope basis, bidding US$6 25/day + US$21 ballast bonus for Kamsarmaxes. 5 year High 5 year Low 5 year average 215 Ytd FFAs as of today 1
2 Handy/Supra: Relatively unchanged on last week SUPRAMAX/HANDY Another unexciting week in both basins, in the Pacific, North Pacific rounds were increasing with rates for the route showing some signs of improvement with ships getting around US$8 /day + US$2 ballast bonus. Steel trips to Persian Gulf also remained at decent levels with ships being taken around US$7 5-8 /day with similar numbers for fertilizers from China to India. Indonesia/India coal runs were a bit slow this week with rates reported around US$6 / day for ships open Singapore, rates saw signs of improvement towards the end of the week. We also saw charterers looking for period vessels this week with owners looking to cover the summer months. However, period rates are still not looking attractive for owners. In the Atlantic, things remained relatively unchanged on the past week with activity at a steady Shipbrokers and consultants since pace. Front haul routes out of the US Gulf were still fixing around US$11-12 /day for Supramaxes, many owners are still preferring to keep vessels in Atlantic trade, hoping that rates will continue to improve in the coming weeks. Supramax Timecharter Average (TCA) 5 year High 5 year Low 5 year average 215 ytd The Baltic Exchange Dry Index Last This Trend ly Baltic Average BCI- TCA () Softening ly Baltic Average BPI-TCA () Softening ly Baltic Average BSI-TCA () Firming ly Baltic Average BHI-TCA () Firming ly BDI Average () Softening FFA Last This Trend Calendar 16 BCI () Firming Calendar 16 BPI () Softening Calendar 16 BSI () Softening 5TC+Q1 (Cape) () Firming 5TC+Q2 (Cape) () Firming 5TC+Q3 (Cape) () Firming 5TC+Q4 (Cape) () Firming Bunker Prices Last This Trend Rotterdam IFO 38 (US$/mt) Softening Rotterdam MGO (US$/mt) Softening Singapore IFO 38 (US$/mt) Firming Singapore MGO (US$/mt) Softening 2
3 Iron Ore Iron Ore: Domestic iron ore production for Jan- April down 1% y-o-y Iron ore prices ended at US$62.3/mt on Thursday, up 8 per cent from Thursday last week. For the period January-April we saw total domestic iron ore production in China ending at 18.7 mill tons (62% fe cont), down 1 per cent y-oy. For the same period Chinese steel production reached 269 million tons, a slight decrease of.2 per cent y-o-y. Chinese steel export saw a 32.7 per cent increase for the first four months y-o-y. Stockpiles in China have been decreasing as steelmakers build up their stocks at this time of the year; this is resulting in limited availability for some types of ore. Inventories at Chinas port facilities last week declined to 84.9 million tons, from 86.6 million tons the week before, according to mysteel. Steel mills usually ramp up production between April and June in the run up to Chinas peak construction season. Coal Coal: Long-run thermal coal price forecast lowered from US$9 to US$8/mt Citibank lowered its forecast on long- run thermal coal by about 11 per cent as they are seeing increased competition from natural gas and renewable energy sources. The banks long-run thermal coal forecast was lowered from US$9/mt to US$8/mt FOB. They also forecasted thermal coal demand to peak in the early 22s, claiming demand for thermal coal is in a structural decline as a result of increasing environmental pressure. Cost of renewal energy is quickly declining, the cost of wind power is forecasted to match the price of coal in a few years, and solar energy is also gaining attractiveness. Grains The Chicago Board Of Trade- frontmonth wheat prices were up more than 5 per cent during May, experiencing the biggest one month gain since November 214. The increase in prices may be explained by concerns over potential crop damages from recent unfavorable weather across the US. 3
4 BCI FFA Cal 16 5 TC Cal 15 5 TC Cal 15 4 TC BCI-TCA ytd BPI FFA Cal 16 Cal BPI-TCA ytd BSI FFA Cal16 Cal BSI-TCA ytd BHI-TCA ytd 4
5 Office Oslo Address Lorentzen & Stemoco AS Munkedamsveien 45, 25 Oslo P.O. Box 229 Vika, 125 Oslo Norway Athens Lorentzen & Stemoco (Athens) Ltd Leof. Karamanli 25 Voula Athens, Greece Singapore Lorentzen & Stemoco Singapore Pte Ltd. 8 Eu Tong Sen Street, #21-98 Office 1 The Central Singapore Shanghai Lorentzen & Stemoco Shanghai Representative Office Room 271, Shanghai Central Plaza 381 Huai Hai Zhong Road, 22 Shanghai China New York Lorentzen & Stemoco AS (New York City) 8 East 41st St 8th Floor New York, NY 117 United States of America +1(212) Disclaimer: The information contained within this report has been collected from a number of market sources and is given in good faith without guarantee, for information purposes only. Lorentzen & Stemoco and its affiliates, directors and employees are not liable or responsible for any consequences whatsoever occurring from errors or inaccuracy of the information contained within this report. 5
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