Shipping Statistics and Market Review

Transcription

1 Statistical Publications Shipping Statistics and Market Review Volume 53 No 9/ Market Review Analytical Focus World Merchant Fleet World Tanker Market World Bulk Carrier Market World Container and General Cargo Shipping World Merchant Fleet by Ownership Patterns World Passenger and Cruise Shipping/ ISL Cruise Fleet Register World Shipbuilding and Shipbuilders Major Shipping Nations World Seaborne Trade and World Port Traffic Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics

2 Publications & Databases Orders /shop Phone: +49/4 21/ Enquiries Fleet Databases Phone: +49/4 21/ ISL Port Database Phone: +49/4 21/ Information Centre/Library The total stock of our Reference library amounts to approx. 125,000 volumes, 31,000 monographs, 250 specialist journals and newspapers (total stock approx. 61,000 volumes) Enquiries by Phone: +49/4 21/ /46 Hours of business Mo - Th Fr 9:00-16:30 CET 9:00-14:30 CET ISL InfoLine is your resource of up-to-date market information Publication services ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review ISL Shipping Statistics Yearbook ISL Monthly Container Port Monitor ISL Book Series/Textbooks ISL Lectures/Contributions and Presentations Studien aus dem ISL (in German Language) Databases Numerous databases used for market analyses, statistical publications, information services and customers' enquiries. World Merchant Fleet Data Bases ISL Port Database We advise and inform fast, comprehensively and professionally about markets, industries and businesses. ISL Information Centre/Library is the leading centre for maritime information and documentation. As a central information spot, it has international literature and economic data at its disposal. Subjects - Shipping and Ports - Transport, Logistics - Shipbuilding and Supply Industry - Information and - Trade and Industry Communication - Systems within Logistics Literature data base ISL-SEABASE The literature database ISL-SEABASE serves the public with approx. 101,00 bibliographic records (state 01/2009) as an important pool of knowledge for the industry, research and science. Services - Short Information - Special Client Profiles - Investigations about Literature - Complete Text Service and Facts (within the scope of copyright) Online searches at /library

3 Comment - World shipbuilding and shipbuilders This short comment is an excerpt from the Analytical Comment published in the ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) No 9/ The SSMR includes detailed statistical information concerning the analytical focus and provides approx. 30 monthly/quarterly market indicators (Market Review). For more information compare attached contents If you are interested in the complete publication covering all details (tables & figures), please contact our subscription department subscription@isl.org or you can order it via our webshop /shop All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission of the editors. ISL does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) (this is also true for the Short Comment ) nor does it accept responsibility for errors or omissions or their consequences. SSMR September/October

4 Contents World Passenger and Cruise Shipping ISL Comment Editorial Team: Arnulf Hader, Reinhard Monden, Dieter Stockmann, Ramona Sass (1) WORLD WORLD PASSENGER FLEET DEVELOPMENT 2008/ Passenger/Cargo Passenger Fleet Development 2007/ Ownership Patterns of the Passenger/Cargo Passenger Fleet Future Passenger and Cargo Passenger Tonnage Supply The Shipbuilding Market for Passenger and Cargo Passenger Ships New Orders and Orderbook Development Passenger Ships Leading Shipbuilding countries... 9 (2) THE ISL CRUISE FLEET REGISTER HIGHLIGHTS 2008/ Demand for Cruises Fleet Developments Ownership Patterns and Cruise Operators Shipyard Dock Utilisation Page 5-14 COMMENT - SUMMARY TABLES COMMENT - FIGURES Tab. 1 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet by Type as of January 1 st, 2004 and Tab. 2 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet Tonnage Reductions Tab. 3 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet Tonnage Additions Tab. 4 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet by gt-size Groups as of January 1 st, Tab. 5 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleets by Top Ten Registered Flags as of January 1 st, Tab. 6 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleets by Top Ten Countries of Domicile as of January 1 st, Tab. 7 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Order Book by Top Countries of Build and Delivery Schedule as of January 1 st, Tab. 8 The Twelve Top Ranking Cruise Shipping Companies Tab. 9 Cruise Ships on Order as of July 1 st, Tab. 10 Cruise Ships on Order by Major Yards as of July 1 st, Tab. 11 Cruise Ships on Order by Major Operators as of July 1 st, Fig. 1 World Passenger and Passenger Cargo Fleet additions and reductions Fig. 2 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet by year of build as of January 1 st, Fig. 3 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet average size Development as of January 1 st, Fig. 4 Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet broken-up and new orders by type Fig. 5 Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet Quarterly order book and new order Development Fig. 6 Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet share of the ordered Tonnage (gt) on the existing Fleet as of January 1 st, Fig. 7 Passenger and Cargo Passenger Ships on order by country of build as of January 1 st, 2007 and Fig. 8 Global demand for cruise shipping in Fig. 9 European cruise Passengers by Country of residence, Fig. 10 Active cruise Fleet as of July 1 st, Fig. 11 Passenger capacity of active cruise Fleet as of July 1 st, Fig. 12 Cruise Fleet by year of build as of July 1 st, Fig. 13 Cruise Fleet by gt-size class as of July 1 st, Fig. 14 World cruise Fleet - Development of the Top Ranking Registered Flags Fig. 15 World cruise Fleet - Development of the Top Ranking Countries of Domicile Fig. 16 Market Shares of the Major Cruise Ship Owners in Fig. 17 Cruise Ships Order Book Development Fig. 18 Cruise Ships on Order by gt Size Class Fig. 19 Order Book of Cruise Ships by Yard and Owner as of July 1 st, SSMR September/October 2009

5 Contents World Passenger and Cruise Shipping ISL InfoLine Special Page (1) ONLINE INFORMATION COMPILED FROM LEADING INDUSTRY SOURCES (2) ISL SEABASE NEW LITERATURE ISL Statistical Tables ISL WORLD CRUISE FLEET REGISTER (1) WORLD CRUISE FLEET The ISL World Cruise Fleet Register 2008/ Cruise Ships on Order as of July 1 st, Additions to Cruise Fleet During Cruise Fleet Development 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, Cruise Fleet by Registered Flags 2007 and Cruise Fleet by Major Flags 1990, 1995, Cruise Fleet by Countries of Domicile Cruise Fleet by Year of Build (2) WORLD PASSENGER AND PASSENGER CARGO FLEET 2.1 Key Figures on Fleet Development Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet Development by Ship Type Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet by Major Flags as of January 1 st, Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet by Country of Domicile as of January 1 st, Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet by Registered Flags and Countries of Domicile According to Regions and Ship Type as of January 1 st, Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet by Country Groups and Division of Age as of January 1 st, Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet by Ship Type and Division of Age and Order Book as of January 1 st, Passenger / Passenger Cargo Ships by gt-size Class and division of Age as of January 1 st, Additions to Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet by Countries of Domicile Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet Size Dimensions as of January 1 st, (3) BROKEN-UP PASSENGER AND PASSENGER CARGO SHIPS 3.1 Broken-up Passenger / Passenger Cargo Ships by Major Types Broken-up Passenger / Passenger Cargo Ships by Major Flags (4) SELECTED WORLD PASSENGER PORTS 4 Selected World Passenger Ports Traffic (5) WORLD SHIPBUILDING PASSENGER / PASSENGER CARGO SHIPS 5.1 Existing Total Passenger Fleet by Major Areas of Build as of January 1 st, Order Book Development 2007 and By Major Types and Country of Build as of January 1 st, By Shipyard and Major Ship Types as of January 1 st, New Orders by Ship Type and Major Countries / Regions of Build New Orders by Major Countries of Domicile ISL Market Review SSMR September/October

6 Definitions Merchant Fleet and Newbuildings Fleet and New Construction Data Include all self-propelled sea-going trading ships and passenger ships of 300 gt and over, i.e. all ships intended for the carriage of goods and/or passengers. Naval units are excluded. Merchant fleet tables include laid-up tonnage and exclude US and Canadian Laker Fleet. Data are based on quarterly updates from Lloyd's Register/Fairplay (LR/Fairplay). Tables on merchant fleet exclude ships for which flag is unknown, as of January 1 st, ,199 ships with 4.1 mill dwt, 2.8 mill gt and include ships with status continued existence in doubt. Country of registration and country of domicile Country of registration indicates the country of the port of registry of a country (flag). The country of domicile indicates where the controlling interest of the fleet is located in terms of the parent company. This information is applicable to merchant fleet vessels of 1000 gt and above. Denmark includes Faeroes, Greenland. France includes New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Pierre et Miquelon, Mayotte, Réunion, Wallis and Futuna Islands, French Austral and Antarctic Territories (Kerguelen), French Guyana. Netherlands includes Netherlands Antilles, Aruba. Portugal includes Madeira. Spain includes Canary Islands. UAE includes Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ras El Khaimah, Ajman, Fujairah, Umn al Qauiwain. Yemen, Rep. of, includes former Yemen, PDR of, and Yemen Arab. Rep. UK includes Isle of Man, Channel Islands, Br. Virgin Islands, Montserrat, St. Helena, Turks and Caicos Islands, Anquilla and Falkland Island. US includes Puerto Rico, Pacific Islands, Northern Mariana Islands. For further explanation (e.g. Analytical Groups of Countries) please visit: /infoline Broken-up Tonnage includes ships sold for breaking. Figures on broken-up tonnage are not revised if vessels reported for breaking are trading again. Merchant Ship Type Structures Based on An International Classification of Ships by Type (ICST (1994) Definition of terms used in merchant ship structures type classification. Tanker: Single-deck vessel constructed and arranged for the carriage of liquid cargoes in tanks integral to the hull and include crude oil or non-hazardous (IMO code) refined products. Chemical tanker: Vessel constructed and arranged for carrying hazardous (IMO code) cargoes in special tanks. Liquid gas tanker: Vessel constructed and arranged for the carriage of liquefied gases either in integral tanks or independent tanks under pressure or refrigerated. Dry Bulk: Dry cargo vessel. One deck, machinery aft with topside tanks capable of carrying a variety of self-trimming cargoes. Ore Carrier (Bulk Carrier): Dry cargo vessel, one deck, strengthening for ore cargoes. Ore/Bulk/Oil Carrier (OBO): Bulk carrier arranged for the carriage of either bulk dry cargoes or liquid cargoes in the same cargo spaces but not simultaneously. General Cargo: Single or multi-deck general dry cargo vessel with facilities for loading/ discharging cargo. Specialised Carrier (Special Ship): Dry cargo vessel specially designed for the carriage of particular cargoes, incl. car-carriers. Reefer: Specialised dry cargo vessel with 80 % or more insulated cargo space. RoRo Cargo/RoRo Passenger: Vessel arranged for Roll-on Roll-off loading / discharging of vehicles (road and/or rail) as cargo and / or passenger conveyances. Container Ship (Fully Cellular Container Ships): Vessel fitted throughout with fixed or portable cell guides for the carriage of containers above and below the weather deck. Passenger: Vessel which carries more than 12 fare paying passengers whether berthed or unberthed (ferries). For further explanation (e.g. Tonnage Specification) please visit: /infoline Basic Ship Type Structure and ISL Ship Type Aggregates MERCHANT SHIP STRUCTURES ISL SHIP TYPES Special Fleet Report LIQUID Oil tankers - Crude oil tankers - Crude/products tankers - Products tankers - Oil/chemical tankers - Other tankers Chemical tankers - Chemical tankers - other chemical tankers Liquid gas tankers - LNG carriers - LPG carriers - other liquid gas carriers DRY BULK Bulk carriers - Ore carriers - other bulk carriers OBO carriers - Ore/bulk/oil carriers - Ore/oil carriers - Bulk/oil carriers OHTER DRY CARGO General cargo ships of which - Single-deck ships - Multi-deck ships - Special ships - Reefer ships - RoRo cargo ships (a) (b) Container ships Passenger and cargo passenger ships (b) - Fully cellular container ships of which - Passenger ships - Cargo/RoRo passenger ships Oil tankers Chemical tankers Liquid gas tankers Bulk carriers OBO carriers General cargo ships, of which Conventional cargo ships Special ships Reefer ships RoRo cargo ships Container ships Passenger and cargo passenger ships, of which Passenger ships Cargo/RoRo passenger ships Broken-up tonnage etc. Tankers Tankers Tankers Bulk carriers Bulk carriers General cargo ships, of which Single-deck ships Multi-deck ships (a) (a) (a) Container ships Passenger ships Included in General Cargo Ships. Including ships (berthed and unberthed) for passenger transport and passenger carrying vessels like general cargo passenger ships, ro-ro passenger ships (ferries). For further explanation (e.g. Trade and Traffic Statistics) please visit: /infoline SSMR September/October

7 Comment - World shipbuilding and shipbuilders 1 THE FUTURE WORLD MERCHANT FLEET - NEW ORDERS AND ORDER BOOK 2008/2009 The shipping industry is facing a severe crisis, unparalleled during the past decades. The year 2008 was marked by the financial crisis, especially the second half. During the last quarter of 2008, no new orders for bulk carriers and container ships were reported. For the first six months of 2009 LR- Fairplay reported only 154 merchant ships as new orders, some of which could actually be ships ordered in 2008 but reported in Against this background, a detailed structural analysis of new orders reported in 2009 would not be meaningful due to the small numbers. Before the crisis hit the shipping industry, a huge number of orders for new tonnage had been placed by the world shipping industry. Therefore, the order book on July 1 st, 2009 was still remarkable: 8,707 ships totalling mill dwt and mill cgt were on order. In terms of dwt, it corresponded to 45.3 per cent of the total world merchant fleet. The ISL analysis indicates that all three main markets for bulk carriers, tankers and containerships are substantially oversupplied, though to different degrees. The tanker market will benefit from the scrapping of older tonnage due to the phasing-out of single-hull tankers, while there is almost no potential for scrapping in the upper size classes of the container segment. Looking at the new orders placed by countries of domicile between January 2008 and 2009, ISL figures indicate that approx. 60 per cent of new orders (in terms of dwt) were attributable to only ten countries of domicile. Since the beginning of 2009, the order book decreased by 9.3 per cent (cgt) and stood at 8,707 ships with 174 mill cgt (541 mill dwt). According to LR-Fairplay, 154 merchant ships with 2.5 mill cgt (6.8 mill dwt) have been reported as new orders since the beginning of Mid of 2009, the dwt-share of the ordered tonnage in the existing merchant fleets stood at 45.3 per cent on average for all vessels, 68.5 per cent for bulk carriers, 33.2 per cent for tankers, 38.5 per cent for container ships and only 21 per cent for general cargo ships. 2 SHIPBUILDING MARKET SEGMENTS BY SHIP TYPE 2.1 The shipbuilding market for tankers After a peak in 2006 with nearly 27 mill cgt of new tanker orders, 2007 and 2008 a downward trend took place. Compared to 2007 the volume of new tanker orders deceased by about 31 per cent in Especially new orders for chemical tankers fell sharply in 2008 (- 72 per cent). As of July 1 st, 2009, the order book stood at 2,414 tankers with mill dwt and 50.2 mill cgt, about 16 per cent less than six months ago. The majority of tanker tonnage on order is attributable to yards in East Asia. Looking at the order book as of mid-2009, South Korea has maintained its leading position with 24.7 mill cgt equal to 49.1 per cent of the total world tanker order book, followed by China with 12.0 mill cgt (23.8 per cent) and Japan with 7.8 mill cgt (15.5 per cent. Within five years China nearly doubled its order share from 12.9 per cent to 23.8 per cent in terms of cgt. The tonnage share for Japanese yards decreased from 22.8 per cent to 15.5 per cent. Fig. 1: Fig. 2: order book dwt-% on fleet Development of fleet, order book and broken-up tonnage 1992 July 1 st, 2009 (dwt index; 2000 = 100) Fleet Order book Broken-up Share of the ordered tonnage on the existing merchant fleets by type as of July 1 st, (dwt-% share) Tanker Container Bulk carrier General Cargo Fig. 3: World tanker order book, quarterly (mill dwt) 250 mill dwt Chemical tankers Liquefied gas tankers Oil tankers Tab. 9: New bulk carrier orders during 2004, 2008 and cgt-% Ship type mill mill mill change No cgt No cgt No cgt '07/'08 Bulk carrier Fig. 4: World bulk carrier order book, quarterly (mill cgt) mill cgt /I 03/I 04/I 05/I 06/I 07/I 08/I 09/I SSMR September/October

8 Comment - World shipbuilding and shipbuilders 2.2 The shipbuilding market for bulk carriers After the strongest order activity ever for bulk carriers, namely 176 mill dwt (39.6 mill cgt) ordered in 2007, new orders in 2008 decreased by 43 per cent to 99.4 mill dwt (22.6 mill cgt), but still the second-highest level ever and the twice as much as in At the same time, 563 bulk carriers with 39.3 mill dwt (9.7 mill cgt) left the order book after completion during 2008/2009. Thus, as of July 1 st, 2009 the order book for bulk carriers increased again and stood at 3,318 ships with 71.7 mill dwt and 65.5 mill cgt. On July 1 st, 2009, the total bulk carrier order book corresponded to 68.6 per cent of the total world bulk carrier fleet in terms of dwt. Looking at the bulk carrier order book for leading shipyards, the following highlights can be summarized: The top ten shipyards comprise only Chinese (5 yards), Japanese (3) and Korean (2) shipyards. Altogether, LR- Fairplay reported about 180 single yards involved in building bulk carriers, thereof about 90 single shipyards in China. Market leader with a cgt-share of 6.3 per cent in the total world bulk carrier order book is Tsuneishi (5.7 per cent) followed by STX (4.7 per cent) and COSCO (4.6 per cent). 2.3 The shipbuilding market for container ships Mid of 2009 the order book for container ships stood at 1,087 ships with 64.1 mill dwt (5.5 mill TEU), against 1,487 ships with 82.2 mill dwt (6.8 mill TEU) one year before. Tonnage under construction now represents 44 per cent of the fleet in service (TEU), down from 59 per cent. For the first time since 2002, orders for containerships fell significantly. The average TEU-size for the newly ordered container ships since 2008 was 5,300 TEU. By segment, the strongest growth will still be in the sizes above 4,000 TEU. Thus, the focus of the order activity has been, as in previous years, on large container ship units. Despite the shift of the market towards Chinese yards, the largest shares of the current order book in terms of cgt are concentrated on the two leading Korean yards, namely Hyundai (26.2 per cent), Daewoo (13.8 per cent) and the Korean Samsung yard (13.0 per cent). 2.4 The shipbuilding market for general cargo ships On July 1 st, ,703 general cargo ships with 22.5 mill dwt (19.7 mill cgt) were on order, about the same volume as one year earlier. The order book comprised 1,346 multi-purpose ships with a capacity of 11.6 mill cgt, 251 special ships (6.5 mill cgt), 92 roro-cargo vessels (1.3 mill cgt) and 14 reefer ships (0.2 mill cgt). The reefer ship fleet is actually shrinking slowly as reefer slots on container ships are partly replacing the conventional reefer ships. Mid of 2009, 17.3 mill cgt or 88.2 per cent of the general cargo ship order book was attributable to yards in East Asia. Fig. 5: Share of bulk carrier orders on the total world order book as of January 1 st, (cgt %-share) Fig. 6: World container ship order book, quarterly (mill cgt) mill cgt cgt %-share on total order book Jul-09 03/I 03/III 04/I 04/III 05/I 05/III 06/I 06/III 07/I 07/III 08/I 08/III 09/I 09/III Tab. 13: New container ship orders during 2004, 2007 and cgt-% Ship type mill mill mill change No cgt No cgt No cgt '07/'08 Container ships Fig. 7: Share of container ship orders on the total world order book as of January 1 st, (cgt %-share) cgt %-share on total order book Jul-09 Fig. 8: World container ships order book by TEU size class as of July 1 st, 2009 (TEU %-share) >10000 TEU 39% TEU 14% >1999 TEU 8% TEU 8% TEU 20% TEU 11% 6 SSMR September/October 2009

9 Comment - World shipbuilding and shipbuilders European shipyards, mostly organised in CESA, had a market share of 8.3 per cent in terms of cgt. 2.5 The shipbuilding market for passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo ships As of July 1 st, 2009, the total order was composed of 76 passenger ships with 4.3 mill cgt (3.9 mill gt) and 109 passenger/ro-ro cargo ships with 1.8 mill cgt (1.7 mill gt). In terms of cgt, the order book of passenger (cruise) ships and passenger/ro-ro cargo vessels reached nearly the same level as one year before. Pure passenger (cruise vessels) and passenger/ro-ro cargo shipbuilding is a domain of European yards. The most important shipbuilding country in this segment is Italy with a market share of 39.1 per cent (in particular the yards of Fincantieri and Visentini). German shipbuilders hold a market share of 18.8 per cent (15 vessels with 1.2 mill cgt) and Finland ranks third with 10.7 per cent. European yards were dominant with market shares of 96.0 per cent (cruise vessels) and 63.3 per cent (cargo passenger ships). 3 WORLDWIDE CAPACITY FORECAST - CAN FIGURES SHOW THE REAL FACTS? Last year s comment closed with the sentence: The situation is too difficult at the moment to give a realistic estimation of the amount of orders in jeopardy. But it seems to be sure that the order book has reached its peak in October. Indeed, the order book is shrinking rapidly since then because of the extremely low ordering activity. The two main reasons are the banking crisis and the lower charter rates. Ship financing became much more difficult and the operators do not need new vessels because they already have problems to employ the existing vessels. Parallel to economic indicators the demand for container transport suddenly decreased, directly resulting in lower freight rates, overcapacities and tumbling rates for container vessels. Operators closed or merged services on all major trade lanes. The overcapacity will last several years more than 500 container vessels are laid up and new orders are absent since one year. The effect on the order book is apparent. The decreasing international trade has not only hit container shipping but also general cargo shipping. This is owed to general trade developments but also to the role of multipurpose general cargo vessels. They can be used for container transport on services which are not fully containerized and for feeder services; both are also hit by decreasing demand for container shipping. Regarding the high age of several segments of the general cargo fleet the volume of the order book had not been too large. Nevertheless, the lack of cargo led to overcapacities, the charter rates fell below costs and there is no need for many new orders. General cargo includes also the ro-ro segment. Pure cargo roro and ferry services in Europe are also hit severely by the crisis, facing two-digit decreases in truck and trailer figures. A major part of the ro-ro fleet consists of pure car carriers and car/truck carriers. This highly specialised fleet suffered under capacity shortage until 2008, but the breakdown of car exports turned it into capacity surplus within a few months. There has also been a large order book and the fleet will increase further, Fig. 9: World general cargo ships order book, quarterly (mill cgt) mill cgt /I 03/III 04/I 04/III 05/I 05/III 06/I 06/III 07/I 07/III 08/I 08/III 09/I 09/III Fig. 10: Share of general cargo ship orders on the total world order book as of January 1 st, (cgt %-share) Fig. 11: Share of passenger ship orders on the total world order book as of January 1 st, (cgt %-share) Fig. 12: World shipbuilding - total order book development as of January 1 st, and July 1 st, 2009 (mill dwt/cgt) mill dwt / mill cgt cgt %-share on total order book cgt %-share on total order book Jul Jul-09 dwt cgt , Jul. 1st SSMR September/October

10 Comment - World shipbuilding and shipbuilders but new orders cannot be expected. As in other market segments many ships are currently sold for scrap. One of the few segments which could resist the crises longer is heavy-lift shipping. One reason is that large investment projects run over several years between start of the project and completion and the sea transport of heavy and oversized goods had been planned years before. Another reason is the development of transport techniques. Formerly smaller consignments were put together at the final destination; the newest generation of heavy lift vessels is able to handle weights of up to 2,000 tonnes, which allows shipping larger components. Consequently demand for heavy-lift transport is multiplying but the fleet is growing too. Heavy lift vessels belong to the few ship types which are still being ordered. When China reduced the import of raw materials and congestion at the ports mitigated the charter rates fell suddenly from exorbitant levels to minima which could no more cover the costs. Meanwhile the charter rates recovered and owners are ordering bulk carriers again. Are they not aware that thousands of bulk carriers are still in the order books or do they believe in more China booms to come? Currently the total dry bulk volume per year in sea transport is about 3.5 billion tonnes. One Capesize carrier making six to ten round trips per year carries one million tonnes. The 1,343 capesize carriers on order have an additional carrying capacity of 1.3 billion tonnes, disregarding smaller vessels. The growth needed to employ this capacity is not yet on the horizon. In the tanker market the IMO phase out is helping to balance supply and demand, but the high oil price could slow down the rising oil demand which is necessary to increase charter rates. Two special segments are suffering even more than the oil tankers: the chemicals tankers and the LNG tankers. For both the number of new vessels is surmounting demand resulting in the current lack of new orders. So far it is possible to explain the difficult current situation. It is also quite sure that we cannot expect a sudden rise of shipbuilding activity within the next few months. Perhaps the cruise ship builders will be the first who will register some new orders in the next 12 months. The cruise market is also suffering from the economic crises but less than the cargo carriers. Cruise shipping is a part of tourism not of sea transport, and it is the part of tourism with the highest growth rates. In sea tourism the sales of trips decreased for a few months only and are now back again on the growth path. The fares never made such hikes as in bulk transport and the recent dip is only about 10 %. For container and bulk markets the forecast is extremely difficult because most of the figures which have been analysed above have to be interpreted carefully. The source on which the figures are based, Lloyd s Register/Fairplay (LRF) is the most comprehensive, and ISL has direct access to the latest fleet and order book data. The problem is the uncertain state of many shipbuilding contracts. Ship owners are now aware that many of the new vessels they have ordered cannot find employment under the changed economic environment with already existing overcapacities. Many owners have already cancelled newbuilding contracts accepting the loss of the first instalment. It is not always easy to end such a contract because many shipyards have extended their building capacities recently and want to get paid for their investments. The chance to get other orders is very small, and new orders Fig. 13: World merchant ships completions until 2010 based on the world order book (mill dwt) 1000 dwt Others Japan South Korea Explanatory note The compensated gross tons (cgt) concept was first devised by shipbuilder associations, and adopted by the OECD Council Working Party on Shipbuilding (WP6), in the 1970s to provide a more accurate measure of shipyard activity than could be achieved by the usual gross ton (gt) and deadweight ton (dwt) measures. The compensated gross tons (cgt) is calculated by multiplying the tonnage of a ship by a coefficient, which is determined according to type and size for a particular ship. Cgt is used as an indicator of the volume of work that is necessary to build a given ship. New type and size coefficients to calculate the cgt tonnage of a ship Ship type cgt figures of a single ship can be calculated by using the term: tonnage (cgt)= A*(gt^B) Guide to relevant market information: Shipping & Shipbuilding Market Fearnleys: Fearnleys Review, Fearnleys Monthly: Platou: Platou Monthly, Platou Report: Barry Rogliano Salles: BRS online market information: Simpson Spence & Young: SSY World Oil-Tanker Trend: Clarkson: World Shipyard Monitor: ISL Shipping Statistics Yearbook 2008 Lloyd s List: China Type Size coefficient coefficient (A) (B) Ship type Type coefficient (A) Size coefficient (B) Oil tankers (double hull) Ro ro vessels Chemical tankers Car carriers Bulk carriers LPG carriers Combined carriers LNG carriers General cargo ships Ferries Reefers Passenger ships Full container Fishing vessels NCCV SSMR September/October 2009

11 Comment - World shipbuilding and shipbuilders could only be negotiated at significantly lower prices. The material costs have decreased and competition is intensifying, inevitably leading to lower vessel prices. Several shipyards already became insolvent because the lack of first instalments for new orders reduces their liquidity. During the rush of orders many shipyards in China and South Korea started to expand their capacities, but the new facilities did not always come on stream as fast as planned. This leads to delays in completion of new ships a welcome opportunity for owners to cancel the contract. However, such ships are mostly already under construction and will enter the market some day for another owner. In China a lot of shipyards were still under construction when the rush of orders dried up. Since the government had decided to become shipbuilding nation No.1, many of the cancelled vessels will be finished and, probably, shipyards will be assisted. Thus, we can be quite sure that the published order book figures need to be revised. But what are the correct figures? Sometimes LRF has confidential information which they are only allowed to publish at a later date. There are estimates in other sources that up to 50 % of the orders in Chinese yards could be cancelled. However, this does not necessarily mean that the ships are not being built. Another much debated and more and more widespread method is postponing of deliveries. On the positive side this shortens the expected lay-up periods because of lack of charters, it will stretch the order book of shipyards and, in some cases, give a chance to correct delivery delays; the negative side is that the vessels could still be delivered too early and contribute to extend the overcapacities. Against this background, it is beyond the scope of this comment to develop a new forecast here. The months and years to come will shed more light on the path of shipbuilding out of the crisis and it will hopefully be easier again to make reliable forecasts for the shipbuilding industry. SSMR September/October

12 Glossary Deadweight tonnage (dwt): Unit of measurement expressed in tonnes of the maximum permitted load of a ship (i.e. the weight of cargo, passengers, fuel, stores and crew) when loaded down to its maximum summer load line. Dry Cargo: Said of any commodity which is not a liquid. Feeder Service: Service provided by a shipping line whereby small ships carry cargoes regularly between ports which are served by a large ocean ship, often called hub ports, and ports which are not, for the reason that cargoes to and from these smaller ports are not sufficient to warrant putting in a large ship but are transhipped to or from the ship. In the case of port to port tariffs, normally the shipping line charges a through rate of freight which includes the cost of transhipment. Feeder Ship: Small ship, provided by a shipping line, which carries cargoes between ports which are served by a large ocean ship and ports which are not. The cargoes are transhipped, normally at the expense of the shipping line, to or from the ocean ship. Flag of Convenience: Registration of a ship in a country whose tax on the profits of trading ships is low or whose requirements concerning manning or maintenance are not stringent. Sometimes referred to as a flag of necessity. flag out (to): To change the registration of a ship to another country. Normally, flagging out is to a flag of convenience country in order to reduce the operating costs of the ship, either in terms of manning or maintenance, or to reduce the tax payable on the profits of trading the ship. Freight Rate: Amount of money paid to a shipowner or shipping line for the carriage of each unit of cargo, such as a tonne, a cubic metre or container load. Also referred to as a rate of freight. Freight ton: A unit of volume or weight used for quoting freight rates, in which 40 cu.ft. or 2,240 lbs. are taken as the equivalent of one ton. Also called stevedore ton. The measurement or weight is generally at ship's option. For freight purposes the term ton may also be applied to a number of hundered weights to be the equivalent of one ton and varying according to the goods. Abbreviated to FT. General Cargo: Cargo consisting of goods unpacked or packed, for example in cartons, crates, bags or bales, often palletised, but specifically not cargo shipped in bulk, on trailers or in shipping containers. A general cargo ship is one designed to carry such cargo, often having several decks because of the number of ports served and the range of products carried. Grain or Grain Capacity: Total cubic capacity of a ship's holds available for the carriage of grain or any other free-flowing bulk cargo which is capable of filling the space between the ship's frames. It is expressed in cubic feet or cubic metres. (Where a cargo is solid and therefore not capable of filling the spaces between the ship's frames, the corresponding capacity is known as the bale or bale capacity.) Gross tonnage (gt): gt indicates that the ship has been measured in accordance with the requirements of the International Convention on Tonnage Measurement of Ships 1969 and is derived by formula in accordance with those requirements. This Gross Tonnage is broadly, the capacity in cubic feet of the spaces within the hull, and of the enclosed spaces above the deck available for cargo, stores, fuel, passengers and crew, with certain exceptions, divided by 100. Thus, 100 cubic feet of capacity is equivalent to 1 gross ton. Handymax: A small bulk or oil tanker vessel of 40,000 to 60,000 dwt that is a larger version of the popular Handysize vessel. Handysize A small bulk or oil tanker vessel that is suited to tie up at a T2 type pier. These vessels are a maxiumum of 10,000 to 40,000 dwt. These vessels are more maneuverable and have a shallower draft than larger vessels and therefore make up the majority of the world s ocean-going cargo fleet. Harbour ton: 1000 kg or 1 cubic metre which ever yields the highest tonnage. Abbreviated to HT. Hinterland: The area behind the port. Hub (Port): Large port intended to attract transhipment cargoes from an to other, smaller, ports, as well as inland locations. It is designed to be more efficient than smaller ports by virtue of its location, handling and storage facilities, and inland transport connections. It is used by large, modern oceangoing vessels, with cargo moving to an from it by all means of transport, including feeder ships and landbridges. Also called load centre. Hub and Spoke: System of feeding cargoes to and from a large port, known as a hub. Intermodal Transport: Carriage of a consignment of goods using more than one mode of transport, e.g. rail and sea. Liner Service: Service provided by a shipping company whereby cargocarrying ships are operated between scheduled, advertised ports of loading and discharging on a regular basis. The freight rates which are charged are based on the shipping company's tariff or, if the company is a member of a liner conference, the tariff of that conference. Net tonnage (nt): nt is derived from the corresponding Gross Tonnage by deducting spaces used for the accomodation of the master, officers, crew, navigation and propelling machinery. Nt is derived by formula in accordance with the requirements of the International Convention on Tonnage Measurement of Ships SSMR September/October 2009

13 Glossary Open Registry: Registration in a country which is open to owners who have no link in terms of nationality with the country where the ship is registered. Sometimes open registers are known as flags of convenience if the registration requirements concerning manning or maintenance are not stringent, or where tax is low. Panama Canal Restrictions: The current maximum dimensions allowed by the Panama Canal Authority are m (965 ft) length, m (106 ft) breadth, and m (39 ft 6 in.) draft in tropical fresh water. These limitations enable vessels to navigate the three sets of canal locks, Gatun Locks, Pedro Miguel Locks, and Miraflores Locks. Panamax (Ship): Ship capable of transiting the Panama Canal (see Panama Canal restrictions), as distinct from post-panamax ships which are too large. There are two main categories: Panamax bulk carrier of about 60-80,000 t deadweight, and Panamax containership of about 4,000-5,000 TEUs with 13 TEUs across the breadth. Post-Panamax (Ship): Ship so large that she cannot transit the Panama Canal. There are three main categories: Post-Panamax bulk carrier, Post-Panamax tanker, and Post-Panamax containership of about 5,000-9,000 TEUs with 17 or more TEUs across the breadth. The largest of these are sometimes referred to as super post-panamax containerships or post-panamax plus containerships. Revenue ton (U.S.): A unit of cargo measurement found in all ports of the United States. It can not be defined in units either of weight or of space occupied by the cargo as it varies from port to port, from line to line, and from ship to ship, depending on the customs of the port and the nature of the cargo carried by the individual vessel. For any one port, however, and particularly for any one group of ships specializing in the same trade and carrying approximately the same kind of commodities the revenue ton represents a tangible unit of cargo measurement and is frequently used as the only means of expressing the total cargo of the ships. All United States ships show on their manifests their total revenue tonnage, and very often they also indicate the total weight of the cargo in long tons. Abbreviated to RT Ro-Ro/Container Vessel: Ship which carries shipping containers and has cell guides within which to accommodate them; she also has decks to take roll-on roll-off cargo. Also known as a con-ro ship. Slot: Compartment in the hold of a containership into which a shipping container fits exactly. It is used in preference to the alternative term 'cell' when referring to the number of such compartments on a ship and the arrangements sometimes made between different shipping lines to pool capacity or between a shipping line and a groupage operator or non vessel operating carrier (NVOC) to make use of space on the ship. Slot Charter: The chartering in of a ship by a fleet operator for a specific voyage when none of the ships in the fleet is available. Stowage: The act of carefully placing various merchandise nearest to each other in a hold of a ship without the least possible loss of spacing and in such a safe manner as to render the ship cargo worthy and sea-worthy. The word stowage may also refer to the charges made for stowing cargo in a ship. Suezmax: Maximum size of ship of certain categories capable of transitting the Suez Canal. The most common is the Suezmax tanker of ,000 t deadweight and the Suezmax containership, which has a container capacity of about 12,000 TEUs. TEU: Twenty foot equivalent unit(s). Time Charter: The hiring of a ship from a shipowner for a period of time. Under this type of contract, the shipowner places his ship, with crew and equipment, at the disposal of the charterer, for which the charterer pays hire money. Subject to any restrictions in the contract, the charterer decides the type and quantity of cargo to be carried and the ports of loading and discharging. He is responsible for supplying the ship with bunkers and for the payment of cargo to be carried and the port of loading and discharging. He is responsible for supplying the ship with bunkers and for the payment of cargo handling operations, port charges, pilotage, towage and ship's agency. The technical operation and navigation of the ship remain the responsibility of the shipowner. A ship hired in this way is said to be on time charter. Abbreviation for time charter-party. Transhipment: Transfer of goods from one ship to another. This transfer may be direct or it may be necessary to discharge the goods on to the quay prior to loading them on to the second ship, or on to vehicles should the second ship be loading at a different berth. Alternative spellings are transhipment and trans-shipment. Turn (a ship) round (to): To bring a ship into port, load or discharge her and sail her from the port. This term is most often used in connection with the time taken to carry out this operation. Uncontainerisible Cargo: Cargo which because of its overall dimensions will not fit into or onto a single shipping container. On routes which are fully containerised, such cargo can sometimes be accommodated on two or more flatracks or platform flats. Cargo is also considered uncontainerisible if it is too heavy for a single container. In this case, it may be secured on the deck of a ship. Often abbreviated to uncon. SOURCE: Based on various sources, among others: Dictionary of Shipping Terms (Fourth Edition); Glossary of Maritime Technology; The Marine Encyclopaedic Dictionary. SSMR September/October 13

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