Shipping Statistics and Market Review

Transcription

1 Statistical Publications Shipping Statistics and Market Review Volume 55 No Market Review Analytical Focus World Merchant Fleet World Tanker Market World Bulk Carrier Market World Container and General Cargo Shipping World Merchant Fleet by Ownership Patterns World Passenger and Cruise Shipping/ ISL Cruise Fleet Register World Shipbuilding and Shipbuilders Major Shipping Nations World Seaborne Trade and World Port Traffic Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics

2 ISL Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics Legal Form Founded in Capacity Directorate Board of Trustees Scientific Advisory Board Sponsoring Body Independent, private non-profit foundation permanent staff members Prof Dr Hans-Dietrich Haasis Prof Dr Burkhard Lemper Prof Dr Frank Arendt Decision-makers from trade, industry, science and politics Experts from trade, industry and science Companies and individual members from the maritime industry During the past 5 years the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) has become one of Europe's leading research and consulting organisations in the maritime sector. More than 5 high qualified employees, equipped with state of the art technology and compatible instruments, work in trans-disciplinary teams on applied research and development projects in the departments Logistic Systems, Maritime Economics and Transport, Information Logistics and Planning/Simulation Systems. Due to its professional capability, superb reputation and exhaustive connections to politics and the industry, ISL will continuously contribute to the advancement of added value as well as to the maritime and logistics industry as to science in the future. For further Information please visit: ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) Published and distributed by: ISL Universitaetsallee Bremen, Germany Price information and subscription: Phone: +49/4 21/ Fax: +49/4 21/ Internet: Webshop: subscription@isl.org /infoline /shop Subscription prices (Net prices): Shipping Statistics and Market Review 211 Print copy: 48.- Online: 42.- Shipping Statistics Yearbook 21 Print copy: Print copy + SSYB CD: 35.- Online: Shipping Statistics and Market Review 211 & Shipping Statistics Yearbook 21 Print copy: 66.- Print copy + SSYB CD: Online: Plus packing and postage. In case of inland sales plus VAT(MwSt). Cancellation 3 months before end of calendar year. Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL), Bremen 211 All rights reserved. No parts of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system without permission in writing from the editors. The editors do not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) nor do they accept responsibility for errors or omissions of their consequences.

3 Volum e 55 (211) No ISSN (double is s ue s Jan./Fe b., May/June and Se pt./o ct.) Sh ipping Statis tics and Mark e t Re vie w AnalyticalFocus World Passenger and Cruise Shipping ISL Cruise Fleet Register ISLCom m e nt... ISLInfoLine Spe cial... ISLStatis ticaltable s Mark e t Re vie w Econom ic Indicators... W orld Me rch ant Fle e t... Fre igh t and Ch arte r Mark e t... Sh ipping Price s and Cos ts... W orld Sh ipbuilding... W orld Port Traffic Ins titute ofsh ipping Econom ics and Logis tics

4 Abbreviations/Symbols Abbreviations ARA Antwerp/Rotterdam/Amsterdam range AWES Association of West European Shipbuilders b/d Barrels per day BHP Brake horsepower cgt Compensated gross tonnage cif Cost, insurance, freight CIS Commonwealth of Independent States COD Country of Domicile CPE Centrally-planned Economies CPI Consumer price index cst Centi Stokes cu.m Cubic metres (also m3) DB Double bottom DC Developing Countries DH Double hull DIS Danish International Ship Register DME Developed market economies DS Double sides dwt Deadweight tons d/y Day/year ECB European Central Bank EMEs Emerging Market Economies EU European Union FY Fiscal year FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations fio Free in and out fob Free on board FT Freight tons ft Foot GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade gt Gross tonnage HP Horsepower HT Harbour ton ibf Intermediate bunker fuel IEA International Energy Agency IMF International Monetary Fund IMO International Maritime Organization in. Inch ITF International Transport Workers Federation km Kilometre loa Length overall lbs Pounds LDT Light displacement tons LDC Less Developed Countries LNG Liquefied Natural Gas LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas LR/Fairplay Lloyd s Register - Fairplay LT Long ton m Metre mbd Million barrel per day mdo Marine diesel oil MED Mediterranean MfA Marine fishing area mill Million M/T Motor tanker MT Metric tons mtd per ton fob delivered mth Month mtw Per ton ex wharf n.a. NDRF n.e.c. neg. NIS no NODC nrt nt NWE,NW o.a. OBO OECD O/O OPEC OR P/C Pr/OBO r Ro/ro RT SAR SBT SDR SSMR ST t TB TEU TKB T/S T/T ULCC USAC USD VLCC WS WTO YR, YRS Symbols Not available National Defence Reserve Fleet Not elsewhere classified Negligible Norwegian International Ship Register Number Non-oil Producing Developing Countries Net register tonnage Net tonnage Northwest Europe Over all Ore/bulk/oil carrier Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Ore/oil carrier Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Ordinary Register Products carrier Product/ore-bulk-oil carrier Revised Roll-on/roll-off Revenue ton Special administration region Ship segregated ballast tanks Special drawing rights ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review Short ton Ton/tonne Tug/barge Twenty feet equivalent unit Tanker barge Tanker/steam Tanker/turbine Ultra large crude carrier United States Atlantic Coast US Dollar Very large crude carrier Worldscale World Trade Organization Year, Years... Data not available - Nil /. Less than half of unit employed From 1995 to 24 inclusive 22/3 Crop year, fiscal year etc., beginning in 22 and terminating in 23 Billions means a thousand million Detailed items in tables do not necessarily add to totals because of rounding For further explanation (e.g. Glossary) please visit: /infoline 2 SSMR August 211

5 Contents World Passenger and Cruise Shipping ISL Comment Editorial Team: Arnulf Hader, Reinhard Monden, Dieter Stockmann (1) WORLD WORLD PASSENGER FLEET DEVELOPMENT 21/ Passenger/Cargo Passenger Fleet Development 21/ Ownership Patterns of the Passenger/Cargo Passenger Fleet Future Passenger and Cargo Passenger Tonnage Supply The Shipbuilding Market for Passenger and Cargo Passenger Ships New Orders and Orderbook Development Passenger Ships Leading Shipbuilding countries... 9 (2) THE ISL CRUISE FLEET REGISTER HIGHLIGHTS 21/ Demand for Cruises Fleet Developments Ownership Patterns and Cruise Operators Shipyard Dock Utilisation Page 5-14 COMMENT - SUMMARY TABLES COMMENT - FIGURES Tab. 1 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet by Type as of January 1 st, 27 and Tab. 2 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet Tonnage Reductions Tab. 3 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet Tonnage Additions Tab. 4 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet by gt-size Groups as of January 1 st, Tab. 5 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleets by Top Ten Registered Flags as of January 1 st, Tab. 6 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleets by Top Ten Countries of Domicile as of January 1 st, Tab. 7 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Order Book by Top Countries of Build and Delivery Schedule as of January 1 st, Tab. 8 The Twelve Top Ranking Cruise Shipping Companies Tab. 9 Cruise Ships on Order as of August 1 st, Tab. 1 Cruise Ships on Order by Major Yards as of August 1 st, Tab. 11 Cruise Ships on Order by Major Operators as of August 1 st, Fig. 1 World Passenger and Passenger Cargo Fleet additions and reductions Fig. 2 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet by year of build as of January 1 st, Fig. 3 World Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet average size Development as of January 1 st, Fig. 4 Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet Quarterly order book and new order Development Fig. 5 Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet broken-up and new orders by type Fig. 6 Passenger and Cargo Passenger Fleet share of the ordered Tonnage (gt) on the existing Fleet as of January 1 st, Fig. 7 Passenger and Cargo Passenger Ships on order by country of build as of January 1 st, 21 and Fig. 8 Global demand for cruise shipping in Fig. 9 European cruise Passengers by Country, Fig. 1 Active cruise Fleet as of July 1 st, Fig. 11 Passenger capacity of active cruise Fleet as of July 1 st, Fig. 12 Cruise Fleet by year of build as of July 1 st, Fig. 13 Cruise Fleet by gt-size class as of July 1 st, Fig. 14 World cruise Fleet - Development of the Top Ranking Registered Flags Fig. 15 World cruise Fleet - Development of the Top Ranking Countries of Domicile Fig. 16 Market Shares of the Major Cruise Ship Owners in Fig. 17 Cruise Ships Order Book Development SSMR August 211 3

6 Contents World Passenger and Cruise Shipping ISL InfoLine Special Page (1) ONLINE INFORMATION COMPILED FROM LEADING INDUSTRY SOURCES (2) ISL SEABASE NEW LITERATURE ISL Statistical Tables ISL WORLD CRUISE FLEET REGISTER (1) WORLD CRUISE FLEET The ISL World Cruise Fleet Register 211/ Cruise Ships on Order as of July 1 st, Additions to Cruise Fleet During Cruise Fleet Development 1985, 199, 1995, 2, 25, Cruise Fleet by Registered Flags 21 and Cruise Fleet by Major Flags 199, 1995, 2, 25, Cruise Fleet by Countries of Domicile Cruise Fleet by Year of Build (2) WORLD PASSENGER AND PASSENGER CARGO FLEET 2.1 Key Figures on Fleet Development Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet Development by Ship Type 26, Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet by Major Flags as of January 1 st, 21 and Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet by Country of Domicile as of January 1 st, Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet by Registered Flags and Countries of Domicile According to Regions and Ship Type as of January 1 st, Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet by Country Groups and Division of Age as of January 1 st, Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet by Ship Type and Division of Age and Deliveries up to 213 as of January 1 st, By gt-size Class and division of Age as of January 1 st, Additions to Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet by Countries of Domicile Passenger / Passenger Cargo Fleet Size Dimensions as of January 1 st, (3) BROKEN-UP PASSENGER AND PASSENGER CARGO SHIPS 3.1 Broken-up Passenger / Passenger Cargo Ships by Major Types Broken-up Passenger / Passenger Cargo Ships by Major Flags (4) SELECTED WORLD PASSENGER PORTS 4 Selected World Passenger Ports Traffic (5) WORLD SHIPBUILDING PASSENGER / PASSENGER CARGO SHIPS 5.1 Existing Total Passenger Fleet by Major Areas of Build as of January 1 st, Orderbook Development 21 and By Major Types and Country of Build as of January 1 st, By Shipyard and Major Ship Types as of January 1 st, New Orders by Ship Type and Major Countries / Regions of Build New Orders by Major Countries of Domicile ISL Market Review SSMR August 211 4

7 Comment - passenger and cruise shipping This short comment is an excerpt from the Analytical Comment published in the ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) No The SSMR includes detailed statistical information concerning the analytical focus and provides approx. 3 monthly/quarterly market indicators (Market Review). For more information compare attached contents If you are interested in the complete publication covering all details (tables & figures), please contact our subscription department subscription@isl.org or you can order it via our webshop /shop All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission of the editors. ISL does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in "ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR)" (this is also true for the Short Comment ) nor does it accept responsibility for errors or omissions or their consequences. SSMR August 211 1

8 Comment - passenger and cruise shipping 1 WORLD PASSENGER AND PASSENGER/RO- RO CARGO FLEET The total world passenger fleet has a number of distinct characteristics. Shipbuilding today concentrates on three major European shipbuilders, while the ships deployment is quite dispersed. Within this fleet segment, cruise vessels stand out with a gt-share of 47 per cent (see chapter 2). 1.1 Passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo fleet development 21/211 At the beginning of 211, the total passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo fleet for ships of 3 gt and over was composed of 4,131 ships totalling approx million gt. At this time 137 vessels with 3.5 million gt were on order, about 24 per cent less than the same time last year. During the world passenger and passenger/roro cargo fleet grew moderately by 3.8 percent per year on average when measured in gt but only by.2 percent if measured in number of ships. This demonstrates an increase in the overall size of ships being ordered. Table 1 indicates the composition of the total passenger fleet, which includes besides 1,575 pure passenger/cruise vessels 2,624 ships which are suitable both for freight and passenger transport. The passenger fleet is, as already mentioned, composed of various sub-types having their own momentum in the market. At the beginning of 211, the following sub-types specified by IHS Fairplay can be distinguished: Fig. 1: World passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo fleet additions and reductions (in 1 gt) 1 gt Fig. 2: World passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo fleet by year of build as of January 1 st, 211 (No of ships) No of ships Additions Reductions Passenger/roro cargo ships Passenger ships Note: Ships built before 197 are excluded. Ships built before 197 comprise 172 passenger ships with.6 mill. gt and 29 cargo passenger ships with.5 mill. Gt Ship Type (ships of 3 gt and over) Passenger/ro-ro cargo ships are, as the above table illustrates, mainly engaged in ferry traffic. The recent tonnage development of the pure passenger fleet, which increased on average by 6.4 per cent per year between 27 and 211, is largely influenced by fleet additions of larger cruise vessels. During the same period the passenger/ro-ro cargo fleet grew on average by 1.5 per cent yearly. In contrast to the previous year, broken up tonnage increased by 146 per cent. During vessels with.6 million gt were reported as sold to breakers against 34 vessels (.2 million gt) one year earlier. With an average No 1 gt av. ship size (gt) Passenger ships Ferry (deck passengers) Cruise ships (berthed only) Liner passenger (berthed only) Passenger / Ferry (berthed and deck passengers Others (Hydrofoil, etc.) RoRo passenger ships RoRo cargo / ferry (deck passengers) Passenger/RoRo cargo (berthed + deck passengers) Landing craft / ferry (deck passengers) Cargo passenger ships Total passenger ships Fig. 3: World passenger and cargo passenger fleet average size development as of January 1 st, (average gt) gt Passenger ships Passenger/rorro cargo ships Sources: The ISL passenger fleet differentiates between the pure passenger ships (in the majority cruise vessels and pax-ferries) and passenger/roro cargo ships (ropax-ferries with deck passengers or cabins, respectively). If not otherwise mentioned, the source for tables and figures concerning the world merchant fleet, special ship type features and orderbook information is ISL based on LR/Fairplay, please quote accordingly. All fleet information provided in chapter 2 is based originally on the ISL, namely the ISL Cruise Fleet Register 211/212. Additions/reductions: Additions (newbuildings) entering the fleet refer to the fleet data of the following year. Reductions (broken-up) tonnage refer to the fleet data of the respective year. Statistical details of World passenger fleet Key figures p. 43 By major flags p. 45 By country of domicile p. 46 By registered flag countries of domicile according to regions p. 47 By ship type and division of age and deliveries up to 211 p. 48 Additions to fleet by country of domicile p. 49 By summer draught, length and broad by gt size class p. 49 SSMR August 211 5

9 Comment passenger and cruise shipping lifetime of 39 years, passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo ships reached by far the highest age before scrapping compared with other ship types of the world merchant fleet. In 21, fleet additions for passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo ships exceeded demolitions by 1.3 million gt. The total passenger fleet additions (newbuildings) during 21 reached 1.85 million gt, thereof 15 cruise ships with 1.2 million gt. Looking at the age profile of the total passenger fleet at the beginning of 211 it can be noted that the passenger fleet is the oldest segment of the total merchant fleet: Passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo ships had an average age of 21. and 24. years, respectively 464 passenger ships and 1,161 passenger/ro-ro cargo ships were older than 25 years. They represent in terms of gt 1.5 per cent of the pure passenger tonnage and 26.9 per cent of the passenger/ro-ro cargo tonnage. About 26 per cent of all pure passenger ships equal to 55.3 per cent of the total gross tonnage were built within the last ten years. With regard to cargo passenger ships, this is true for only 33.4 per cent of total tonnage and 21.4 per cent of all ships. The OASIS OF THE SEAS and the ALLURE OF THE SEAS are by far the world s largest cruise ships at the beginning of 211. Both ships measure 225,282 gross tons with a capacity of around 5,4 passengers and 2,165 crew. As already mentioned the sub-types have their own market momentum, which is also clearly reflected in the size structure of the passenger fleet. Since the late 199s, the average size of pure passenger ships increasingly exceeds the average of the passenger/cargo ships (compare figure 3). At the beginning of 211, 1,432 passenger ships and 2,54 cargo passenger ships equal to 96.2 per cent of all ships were attributable to size classes below 5, gt. Table 4 indicates that there is a strong concentration on smaller units in sizes up to 999 gt. Nearly all cargo passenger ships range in sizes up to 49,999 gt. Ships above 8, gt are solely pure passenger ships or more precisely cruise ships. Almost all ships with more than 1, gt were built in 1998 or later, with the exception of the CARNIVAL DESTINY, which was built in The order book at the start of 211 included 15 passenger ships (all cruise ships) above 8, gt with a total 2. million gt. 1.2 Ownership patterns of the passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo fleet 211 Compared with other fleet segments like tankers, bulk carriers, containers and general cargo ships analysed in previous issues of the SSMR, the foreign flag registered tonnage share is significantly lower for the passenger/ cargo passenger fleet. But there are, as tables 5 and 6 underline, distinct differences between the pure passenger fleet and the cargo passenger fleet. Table 6 highlights the ownership patterns for the total Fig. 4: World passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo fleet brokenup and new orders by type (1 gt) 1 gt Fig. 5: World passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo fleet Quarterly orderbook and new order development mill cgt Fig. 6: Passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo fleet share of the ordered tonnage (gt) on the existing fleet as of January 1 st, (gt-per cent) Passenger ships Broken up New orders during past 3 month Passenger ships New orders Passenger/roro cargo ships Order book Passenger/roro cargo ships Open registry flags: Open registry flags, comprises top ten flags, namely Liberia, Panama, Bahamas, Cyprus, Malta, Saint Vincent, Bermuda, Marshall Islands, Antigua & Barbuda and Cayman Islands; of which Majors comprises only Liberia, Panama, Bahamas, Bermuda and Cyprus. Statistical details World passenger fleet Broken-up passenger and cargo passenger ships p. 5 Existing total passenger fleet by major areas of build p. 51 Quarterly orderbook development p. 51 Orderbook by country of build and delivery schedule p. 52 Orderbook by ship yard and type and delivery schedule p. 52 New orders by type and major countries of build p. 53 New orders by type and major countries of domicile p SSMR August 211

10 Comment - passenger and cruise shipping passenger fleet according to controlled tonnage per shipping nation. Passenger/Cruise tonnage is largely controlled by the US (76.1 per cent) followed by Malaysia (8.2 per cent) and the Indonesia (1.9 per cent). Due to the lower level of foreign flag registered tonnage, the tonnage distribution of the cargo passenger fleet according to shipping nations (countries of domicile, compare table 6) shows similar patterns as the flag-related distribution listed in table The shipbuilding market for passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo ships With 71 new orders (1.8 million cgt) compared to 45 vessels (.9 million cgt) in 29, 21 was quite a good year for the passenger, cruise and ferry shipbuilding market. At the beginning of 211, the total order book was composed of 21 cruise vessels with 2.5 million cgt, 25 passenger ships (.1 million cgt) and 91 passenger/ro-ro cargo ships with 1.3 million cgt. The current order book includes 15 cruise vessels with capacities of 1, gt and over. In contrast to other ship types, the capacity of passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo vessels (ferries) on order at the beginning of 211 is very low and represents only 1.2 per cent of the existing fleet, down from 13.7 per cent one year earlier. Latest figures mid of 211 show that passenger and cargo passenger ship orders were slowing further: During the first half of 211, only 22 passenger or passenger cargo ships with.74 million gt and.77 million cgt were ordered. As of July 1 st, 211 the order book stood at 136 vessels, totalling 3.5 million cgt and 2.9 million gt Leading shipbuilding countries The leading ship yards are Fincantieri with 1.3 million cgt (33.4 per cent), Meyer Papenburg with.9 million cgt (23.8 per cent) and STX with.4 million cgt (1.5 per cent). According to latest news, Mitsubishi is back into cruise ship building. The yard has signed an agreement with Carnival Corp. to build two 125,-gt cruise ships, hence breaking with the dominance of European shipbuilders in that segment. 2 THE CRUISE FLEET DEVELOPMENT HIGHLIGHTS 211/212 The following contribution relates to the ISL Cruise Fleet Register 211/212 published in this issue. Besides a description of the fleet development it will also give some background information on other market elements. 2.1 Demand for cruises The year 21 was a relatively good year for the cruise industry; especially European cruisers were responsible for a world-wide growth rate of nearly 7 per cent. Adding this to the 17.6 million cruise passengers the European Cruise Council stated in 29, numbers have doubled during the past ten years. The US are still the number one market for cruises, but if the actual development lasts, the Europeans, nowadays only 3 per cent of the market, will close the gap to the US in a couple of years. The market policies of the leading operators Fig. 7: World passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo ships on order by country of build as of January 1 st, 21 and 211 (in cgt) Italy Germany France China, PR of Fig. 8: Global demand for cruise shipping in 21 (per cent-share of total passengers) USA 59% Others 26% ISL based on European Cruise Council and other trade sources Fig. 9: European cruise passengers by country of residence, 21 (in 1 passengers) 1 Passengers 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, ISL based on European Cruise Council and other trade sources Tab. 1: The top ten European ports of call for cruise ships Source: European cruise council Total 18.8 Mill. passengers in Finland Spain others UK 9% Cruiseship calls Passenger (in 1) Germany 6% PORT Area Copenhagen The Baltic Stockholm The Baltic St. Petersburg The Baltic Lisbon Europe West Coast Tallinn The Baltic Bergen North Europe Oslo The Baltic Dover UK & Ireland Vigo Europe West Coast Geiranger North Europe 212 SSMR August 211 7

11 Comment passenger and cruise shipping like Carnival with its AIDA branch, shifting a growing share of their new ships towards the European market, are underlining these tendencies. Another factor explaining the positive developments in the cruise shipping industry is the development and expansion of new markets. Cruise lines try to gain a foothold in Asia, where some ports of call like Hong Kong and Singapore modernise and develop their cruise terminals. With the start of the 211/212 season, for the first time a Chinese operator with a western style vessel is entering the market. Even if this is still a small one, having had some 1, cruise passengers last year, it is a growing one. Furthermore, the cruise industry managed a success, many other parts of the leisure industry could never reach a degree of capacity utilisation of nearly 1 per cent. This is among others the result of the intentions to find new cruise destinations like the Mediterranean in Winter or mainland Southeast Asia. All in all, the leading cruise operators could keep demand up and continue to realize profits with different amenities (cheaper fares and value added offers). According to the European Cruise Council the number of Europeans taking a cruise holiday recorded a growth of 1.8 per cent in 21. Around 5.5 million passengers (equal to the entire population of a country like Slovakia) have taken a cruise vacation in 21, an increase of 1.8 per cent compared to last year. The United Kingdom and Germany are still the market leaders with 1.6 million and 1.2 million passengers respectively. In Italy, the third largest cruise market in Europe, an increase of 16 per cent was observed (889, passengers). The average cruise length varies between eight days in the Mediterranean with 162 ships cruising these waters and nine days in Northern Europe and the Baltic targeted by 1 vessels. Considered the preference of US citizens to have a cruise vacation in the nearby Caribbean, the result is an average cruise length of 7 days. The positive developments in Europe brings the leading cruise operators, especially the Royal Caribbean brands, to position a large share of their ships in Europe during next winter. During this period, it can be expected that Europeans will be the majority on the US cruise ships for the first time. 2.2 Cruise fleet developments Mid of 211 the passenger and cruise fleet covered in this issue of the SSMR comprises 298 ships. A total of only four vessels left the fleet during 21. The 7 berth ship MONA LISA is used as a floating hotel and the remaining three namely the THE EMERALD of Louis Cruises, the REEF ESCAPE of Captain Cook Cruises and the 717 ISLANDS CRUISE of the corresponding owner are laid up. The 1958 built THE EMERALD will probably never come in service again due to not fulfilling the SOLAS regulations. During 21/211 the following additions were observed in the cruise fleet: in total 12 new cruise ships were added to the fleet, an additional total capacity of.94 mill gt and 22,758 berths. The average size of the cruise fleet is 78,298 gt with 1,897 berths. Four of these additions namely the CARNIVAL MAGIC with 128, gt and 36 berths, the COSTA FAVOLOSA with 115, gt and carrying up to 3 passengers, and two mid-sized ships for Aida Cruises and Seabourn Cruises Fig. 1: World active cruise fleet as of July 1 st, (No of ships and gt) No of ships 1 gt Source: ISL Cruise Fleet Register 211; ships of 1 gt and over No Fig. 11: Passenger capacity of world active cruise fleet as of July 1 st, (1 berths) Source: ISL Cruise Fleet Register 211; ships of 1 gt and over 1 berths Fig. 12: World active cruise fleet by year of build as of July 1 st, 211 (No of ships and passenger capacitiy) No of ships Capacity in 1 berths up to Source: ISL Cruise Fleet Register 211; ships of 1 gt and over The ISL Cruise Fleet Register - Definitions: Entries are based on Information up to August 211. Included are all seagoing passenger vessels with 1 or more berths yearround or temporary engaged in cruising. Not included are cargo vessels on cargo liner services, car ferries and passenger ferries on ferry services and private yachts. Some modern ships in lay-up are included. This is caused by temporary capacity reductions and bankruptcies of operators whose ships will, probably, come back to service. Old ships in permanent lay-up are excluded. A few vessels making short cruises were excluded, because they are in fact floating casinos making trips of less than one night. 1 gt 8 SSMR August 211

12 Comment - passenger and cruise shipping respectively were for the Carnival Group. Furthermore noteworthy are cruise operators as Royal Caribbean Cruises with their new ALLURE OF THE SEAS, the sister of the OASIS OF THE SEAS and the CELBRITY SILHOUETTE of 122, gt built at the German Meyer Werft. In the lower range of the size scale are the new Carnival ships SEABOURN QUEST and Oceania Cruises MARINA, two of several small ships ordered for the highend luxury segment of the industry in recent years. The structure of the fleet reflects the growing importance of mega ships (>2,5 berths). 51 ships in this class account for 37 per cent of the cabin capacity of the global cruise fleet. The 121 medium-sized vessels (1,-2,5 berths) represent another 5 per cent of the cabin capacity, while the 126 remaining ships account for only 13 per cent of the berth capacities. There are now also 47 ships in the world fleet larger than 1, gt, which represent 34 per cent of the berth capacity. One third of the cruise vessels in service flew the flag of the Bahamas. Another 5 per cent are registered under the flags of Panama, Bermuda, Malta and Italy. The Bahamas registered 95 ships totalling 5.5 mill gt and 136, berths. Although Bahamas is still the number one flag, other flags of convenience as well as flags like Italy, the Netherlands and the UK register appreciable shares of the total cruise fleet. These countries are the homes of some of the biggest cruise companies like Costa and Aida brands (Italy), Cunard and P&O (UK) and the Holland America Line (Netherlands). As figure 12 impressively illustrates, the total passenger capacity s age profile is strongly affected by the recent growth in the sector. The total capacity as well as the total tonnage is growing faster than the number of ships. Caused by the large number of newbuildings during the last decade and the growing demand for cruises, coming along with a negligible number of scrapped vessels and total losses, the average age of the fleet is shrinking. Some 15 years ago, the average age of the cruise fleet stood at 19.5 years, whereas nowadays the average age is 16.7 years only. 2.3 Ownership patterns and cruise operators The Miami-based Carnival Group has not enlarged its portfolio of cruise brands during the last 12 months. With 11 ships, 7.8 million gt and 199, beds Carnival controls 47 per cent of the world tonnage and also 47 per cent of the lower beds. The Cruise brands under the roof of the Carnival Corporation & plc are located in North America, Europe, Asia and Australia, and comprise of Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, The Yachts of Seabourn, AIDA Cruises, Costa Cruises, Cunard Line, Ibero Cruises, Ocean Village, P&O Cruises and P&O Cruises Australia. Flagships of Carnival Cruise Lines are the CARNIVAL DREAM and her sister ships, CARNIVAL MAGIC built on Fincantieri s Monfalcone shipyard and commissioned in 21 and 29 respectively. The third vessel of this series, the CARNIVAL BREEZE, is expected to come into service in spring of 212. Two of the four new entries in Carnival s fleet are travelling Fig. 13: World active cruise fleet by gt-size class as of July 1 st, 211 (in gt-per cent) Source: ISL Cruise Fleet Register 211; ships of 1 gt and over Fig. 14: World active cruise fleet - development of the top ranking registered flags (in 1 gt) 1 gt , gt and over 36% 8, - 1, gt 21% up to 2, gt 5% 2, - 5, gt 14% 5, - 8, gt 24% Source: ISL Cruise Fleet Register 211; ships of 1 gt and over Fig. 15: World active cruise fleet - development of the top ranking countries of domicile (in 1 gt) 1 gt Bahamas Panama Bermuda Malta USA Malaysia Japan Switzerland Source: ISL Cruise Fleet Register 211; ships of 1 gt and over Fig. 16: Market shares of the major cruise shipping companies in 211 (berths per cent-share) Star Cruises 8.1% Others 17.3% Mediterranean Shipping Cruises 5.6% Royal Caribbean Cruise 22.1% Carnival 46.9% Source: ISL Cruise Fleet Register 211; ships of 1 gt and over SSMR August 211 9

13 Comment passenger and cruise shipping for Europe-based brands, namely the AIDAsol carrying 22 berths and the 114, gt ship COSTA FAVOLOSA, both scheduled to do voyages in and around Europe. Royal Caribbean s focus on bigger ships is affirmed by the second vessel of the so called GENESIS class. The new ALLURE OF THE SEAS (225, gt) is the sister of the OASIS OF THE SEAS and entered service in late 21, offering a maximum capacity of 5,4 lower beds. Including the ALLURE, RCL runs 39 vessels that provide around 94, berths. This equates a share of 23 per cent of the total cruise fleet, making RCL the second largest company in the cruise business. Mediterranean Shipping Cruises (MSC) is the only true European owner among the larger companies. The current orderbook includes one 138, gt ship, the MSC DIVINA, to be delivered next year. She is docked at STX Europe in France and will make her maiden voyage in the Mediterranean Sea in spring 212. Table 8 gives an overview of the market shares of leading companies. Carnival (47. per cent of the beds), RCI (23.1 per cent), Star (7.7 per cent) and MSC (5.5 per cent) are the four leading groups, but each in its own league. Together they offer 83 per cent of the total fleet capacity. The fifth rank, the TUI group, has a share of about 2.5 per cent only. 2.4 Shipyard dock utilisation One effect of the financial crisis and the never ending increase in ship size is a lower number of new ship building contracts. The three leading builders Fincantieri (Italy), Meyer (Germany) and STX (shipyards in Finland and France) have a combined capacity of about 1 vessels above Panamax size per year. Between 29 and 211 the owners have signed contracts for 14 vessels only. Meyer has won four of these, among them the three largest units with 158, and 144, gt for RCCL and NCL, respectively. Together with previous contracts Meyer has now eight ships on order and is the number 1 cruise ship builder. Fincantieri has won five new contracts from the Carnival Group and has a backlog of seven units now. This means that two of the five Fincantieri plants which are able to construct cruise vessels of different sizes are threatened by closure because of a lack of new work. Within the STX Group the Finnish yards have no cruise vessels on order while the French yard has won three. There the MSC DIVINA is already floating while the sister vessel ordered by a Libyan company has to find a new owner. The third one is the relatively small EUROPA 2. The greatest surprise is the most recent contract: AIDA cruises decided to sign a contract with Mitsubishi for two ships of the next generation. Apparently the Japanese want to return to cruise ship building and have offered a very attractive price. Fig. 17: Cruise ships orderbook development (up to July, No of ships and 1 gt) 1 gt Source: ISL Cruise Fleet Register 211; ships of 1 gt and over gt No Statistical details ISL Cruise Fleet Register Cruise fleet key figures p. 43 Fleet development p. 23 By year of build p. 24 By registered flags 27 and 28 p. 23 By major flags 199, 1995, p. 24 By countries of domicile 28 p. 24 Statistical details Future tonnage developments Cruise vessels on order for delivery in 29 and later p. 34 SSMR Guide to relevant market information: Fast Ferry International Ltd: Fast Ferry International Ferry Information: Ferry compass Informa Publishing Group: Cruise International The Passenger Shipping Association: Cruise Lines International Association, Inc.: IMO: No 1 SSMR August 211

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