MARKET REPORT WEEK 11

Transcription

1 MARKET REPORT WEEK 11 BASED ON SALES AND PURCHASES OF VESSELS WEEK ENDED FRIDAY 18 th MARCH 2011 In respect of the BDI, last week would, at face value, appear nothing special either way since whilst the BCI was the biggest mover by losing -11% w-o-w the other 3 indices only moved marginally: BPI -1.8%, BSI +3%, and BHSI +3.5%. The above small indices movements however totally belie what will probably turn out to be the most momentous 7-10 days of major world events of 2011, with probable major forward effects on shipping... Ten days ago we witnessed the huge earthquake and Tsunami in Japan and over this last weekend we have seen a coalition of countries undertake strong military action against the ruler of Libya and military forces loyal to him. The Libya military action will hopefully be over quickly allowing local factions within to harmonize and return Libya to the world stage, but then it will be interesting to see what foreign countries the State is then prepared to co-operate with in respect of Libyan oil exploration and oil sales. If for instance any of the coalition countries are snubbed then substantial oil ton / miles to those countries will be affected i.e. increased in most instances. Meantime, depending on the damage already caused, it remains to be seen if it will take months or years before Libya is able to pump oil for export again - to anyone. Going back to the Japanese disasters; the devastation to the northeastern coastal regions is huge (as is the unfortunate loss of life), but this PLUS the ongoing massive nuclear problem at Fukushima will all likely lead to future positive effects on shipping, e.g.: - At this stage, just 10 days into the disaster, Japan is still in the modes of: (body) recovery, emergency welfare of displaced people many who have lost everything, evaluation of damage to ports, airports, infrastructure (roads and rail), factories and many many other businesses etc. Accordingly, Shipping is at this stage loosing business to Japan and will continue to do so until its ports and infrastructure are repaired enough to re-open for basic function. In the longer term though, the effect of the Japanese disaster(s) on shipping will almost certainly be positive because of numerous factors: - high demands for coal and iron ore in order to produce steel for rebuilding. - high demand for cement and other raw building materials for general rebuilding plus the building of replacement power stations powered by whatever Japan decides to use (coal / oil / LNG / or indeed nuclear). - increased demand for coal to a) replace coal stocks washed away from existing coal fired power stations and b) to power future higher electricity output from existing, and possibly future new, fossil fuel power stations in order to replace Japan's lost Nuclear capacity. - increased oil and gas (LPG) demands to replaced lost stocks - increased gas importation especially LNG as a possible replacement fuel for power stations especially if Japan decides to turn against its current Nuclear power expansion programme (which it was especially relying upon in order to meet its future reduced carbon emissions targets). - Whilst Japan appears to have only lost one shipyard in the Tsunami (a bloc manufacturer in the Iwaki district) it has also lost many component factories, and since modern day manufacture of ships and cars alike depend on 'just in time' deliveries of components (in order to save on storage space and money tied up in stock etc), this means that ship building (and car) output will definitely be slowed wherever such components are supplied to, which is worldwide, but will especially effect shipyards in Japan, Korea and China, thereby ultimately causing further 'slippage' in newbuilding deliveries in the short to medium term - which is a good thing for shipping in this current time of swollen newbuilding order books. NB there are reports that some Japanese shipyards have already declared 'force majeure' on newbuilding delivery delays caused by the earthquake and Tsunami. Meantime, last week saw improved drycargo S+P volume reported, especially of modern tonnage and with some new 'benchmark' levels paid in several sectors, whilst tanker sales volume remains slow. Lastly, in the demo sector, the Indian sub continent remains firm with India paying high $400's and Bangladesh supposedly willing to pay low $500's though as yet we understand the court decree allowing the reopening of the yards there has still not yet actually been signed.

2 GENMAR PROGRESS 96,765 06/1991 BLUE CORAL 51,309 01/2008 BLUE DIAMOND 51,246 04/2008 CARIAD 44,999 03/1996 BAKI AKAR 29,998 12/1987 ORIENTAL TULIP 10,280 12/2000 HENG ZHOU 6,500 05/2007 SUMITOMO, STX, S.KOREA STX, S.KOREA AESA, SPAIN MINAMI, ASAKAWA, ZHEJIANG, TANKERS HULL DH 8.00M DH 33.00M DH 33.00M GREEK (EUROTANKERS) RUSSIAN (SOVCOMFLOT) RUSSIAN (SOVCOMFLOT) DH 11.00M UNDISCLOSED SH 3.25M DH 9.50M DH 2.90M INDONESIAN (WARUNA NUSA SENTANA) INDIAN (FORCEE) AUSTRALIAN (BOSS ENERGY) EACH COMBO GEAR / PUMPS - NO SALES REPORTED THIS WEEK - HALCYON STAR 3,801 05/2007 MADENCI, TURKEY GAS CBM 3,300 P+C NORWEGIAN (VIKEN SHIPPING) LPG

3 2500 BALTIC TANKER INDICES Week BDTI 10 BCTI 10 BDTI 11 BCTI 11

4 BULKERS GEAR VIOLET 174,000 04/2011 JIANGSU 92,500 04/2011 ABEILLE 82,154 07/2010 ALABANDA 74,044 05/1995 CAPESIZE / VLOC NAMURA, PANAMAX / POST-PANAMAX JIANGSU, TSUNEISHI ZHOUSHAN, HASHIHAMA, M GREEK M GREEK M CHINESE GLESS 21.00M CHINESE INCL TC FOR 16 MONTHS AT 21K PD. KEFALLONIA 57,700 02/2011 GLOBAL TREASURE 57,295 01/2011 DUBAI JEWEL 52,951 01/2004 GLORIANA 52,068 07/2000 HANDYMAX / SUPRAMAX STX, STX, OSHIMA, SANOYAS, CR4x30T 28.50M UNDISCLOSED CR4x30T 30.50M GREEK CR4x30T 26.50M PAKISTAN (PNSC) CR4x30T 23.00M UNDISCLOSED FIDELITY 29,152 06/1985 NKK, HANDIES CR2x30T CR1x25T 4.00M CHINESE SMALL BULKERS - NO SALES REPORTED THIS WEEK -

5 BALTIC DRY INDICES BDI 11 BCI 11 BPI 11 BSI 11 BHSI 11 BDI 10 BCI 10 BPI 10 BSI 10 BHSI 10 Week

6 INDICATIVE REPORTED FIXTURES RATE CHARTERERS DURATION MINERAL BEIJING ,083 17,000$/D RIO TINTO 3 S STAR YPSILON ,940 13,000$/D STX 7/9 MONTHS TAI PROGRESS ,834 18,500$/D TORM 4/6 MONTHS KING COAL ,381 16,500$/D STX 11/13 MONTHS LOCH ALYN ,774 17,250$/D GMI 7/8 MONTHS ANGELIC GLORY ,750 18,000$/D NORDEN 4/6 MONTHS PEARL SEAS ,483 18,000$/D CARGILL 4/6 MONTHS FELICIA ,456 15,000$/D SWISS MARINE 2 S FOUR SHINANO ,676 16,500$/D KINGS OCEAN 7/9 MONTHS SEA LANTANA ,471 17,500$/D OLDENDORFF 3/5 MONTHS KARAVADOS ,992 15,100$/D HUDSON 12 MONTHS BALTIC DRY INDICES BDI BCI BPI BSI BHSI PREVIOUS WEEK CURRENT WEEK + /

7 TWEEN / MPP / GENERAL CARGO DONGJIN OSAKA 4,999 09/1997 IMAMURA, GEAR DR1x25T DR2x25T 3.60M S. KOREAN CMA CGM CORTE REAL CMA CGM MAGELLAN 156,898 08/ ,254 09/2010 ESTEBROKER 33,843 03/1999 HENRY SCHULTE MAKASSAR CARAKA JAYA NIAGA LII 11,031 01/2000 4,180 06/1998 CONTAINER GEAR TEU DAEWOO, S.KOREA DAEWOO, S.KOREA KVAERNER, GERMANY XIAMEN, IKI MAKASSAR, INDONESIA - 13, M - 13, M NORWEGIAN (SHIP FINANCE I NAL) NORWEGIAN (SHIP FINANCE I NAL) CR3x45T M GREEK GLESS M S. KOREAN (SINOKOR) GLESS M INDONESIAN INCL 15YRS BACK TO CMA CGM WITH P/O. INCL 15YRS BACK TO CMA CGM WITH P/O. ROYAL REEFER 7,337 01/1987 WEALTH REEFER 7,337 11/1986 UWAJIMA, UWAJIMA, REEF REEF. CAP/TY GEAR 330,018 DR8x5T 3.50M CHINESE EACH 330,018 DR8x5T 3.50M CHINESE FERRY HACHINOCHE 3,352 07/1989 HIGH SPEED 1 1,500 04/1996 PCC/ RORO / PASS NAIKAI, SCHELDE, NETHERLANDS CARS/ LM PAX M INDONESIAN M UNDISCLOSED

8 TYPE DEMOLITION LDT USD/LT SOLD TO TULIN TANK 281, , BANGLADESH - FLY EAGLE TANK 98, , INCL 1500T ROB CHAMPION TANK 38, , INDIA OLD SALE OCEAN PARK BULK 166, , BANGLADESH AS IS S.KOREA XING HONG DA BULK 44, , SUN SUMA BULK 38, , INDIA - SOUND PROODOS BULK 35, , BANGLADESH - SLAVIANKA BULK 25, , BANGLADESH AS IS VARNA THOR TRANSPORTER BULK 23, , INDIA - ELBIA BULK 14, , INDIA - SAN FONG TWEEN 15, , ELEANA TWEEN 15, , INDIA - SIAM PROJECT TWEEN 12, , INDIA - NAESBORG RORO 22, , INDIA - CASTORGAS GAS 6, , INDIA - TYPE DELY NEWBUILDINGS BULK 82, /13 SUNGDONG 36.00M GREEK 2+2 OPTION BULK 82, SUNGDONG 36.00M MANTA DENIZCILIK 1+1 OPTION BULK 32, SAMHO 26.50M MANTA DENIZCILIK 2 UNITS CONT 9,700 TEU 2013 HHI M HAMBURG SUD 6+4 OPTION MARKET RATES BRENT GBP USD USD K WON USD YEN EURO USD PREVIOUS WEEK , CURRENT WEEK + / ,