Vancouver. July, 2015

Transcription

1 Vancouver July, //20/2015

2 Gold Stocks Underperform Gold Source: Bloomberg

3 Round Trip for Gold Stocks Source: Bloomberg

4 Major Gold Producers 1. Barrick Gold 7.16 million oz. 2. Newmont Mining 5.1 million oz. 3. AngloGold Ashanti 4.1 million oz. 4. Goldcorp 2.67 million oz. 5. Kinross Gold 2.63 million oz. 6. Newcrest Mining 2.1 million oz. 7. Gold Fields 2.0 million oz. 8. Polyus Gold 1.65 million oz. 9. China National 1.4 million oz. 10. Yamana Gold 1.2 million oz. Source: Company reports 2014 est. production

5 World Mine Production Gold, US$ Mine production, tonnes Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, LBMA, DCM Economics

6 . Net Mine Supply Q1 10-Q1 11-Q1 12-Q1 13-Q1 14-Q1 Source: World Gold Council tabulated by Thomson Reuters GFMS

7 Source: Nevada Output Down

8 Gold Cash Costs $800 (US$/oz) $700 $600 $500 $919* $400 $300 $200 $100 $ *estimate Source: Scotiabank GBM and Thompson Reuters

9 Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates Costs Up, Gold Down

10 Source: Bloomberg Cash Costs Still High

11 Source: Costs Decline, But

12 High Cost Still High Source: GMP estimates, company news releases

13 Help From Oil Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Source: Bloomberg

14 Help From The Dollar Source: Bloomberg

15 Help From Gold? Source: Bloomberg

16 No Profits Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec Source: Bloomberg

17 Source: SNL Metals & Mining Discoveries Fewer

18 Peak Gold : Production to Decline Source: Goldcorp, SNL Metals & Mining

19 Grade Declines at Mines Source: 2013 Gold Mine Report and Deposit Rankings Report

20 Losses for Barrick Gold $10.3 billion 2. Newmont Mining $2.5 billion 3. AngloGold Ashanti $2.3 billion 4. Goldcorp $2.7 billion 5. Kinross Gold $3.0 billion 6. Newcrest $5.3 billion* 7. Gold Fields $214.4 million 8. Polyus Gold +$140 million 9. Yamana Gold $446.2 million 10. Agnico Eagle $406.5 million * Newcrest has a June 30 year end Source: Mineweb

21 Losses for Barrick Gold $2.91 billion 2. Newmont Mining +548 million 3. AngloGold Ashanti billion 4. Goldcorp $2.4 billion 5. Kinross Gold $1.4 million 6. Newcrest $2.4 billion* 7. Gold Fields +$1.2 million 8. Polyus Gold TBA + 9. Yamana Gold $300 million 10. Agnico Eagle +$83 million * Newcrest has a June 30 year end Source: Mineweb

22 Write Offs Since 2008 Coal Nickel Steel $19 billion $21 billion $32 billion Gold $45 billion Source: John Tumazos

23 They Keep Coming Barrick Several $2.8 billion Newcrest Lihir $2.4 billion Goldcorp Cerro Negro $2.3 billion Coeur Several $1.0 billion Yamana Brazil $66.8 million Source: Company Reports

24 2014 Reserves Down Anglo Gold -22% IAMGOLD -15% Gold Fields -15% Barrick -11% Goldcorp -8% Eldorado -6% Coeur -27% Source: Brent Cook, Exploration Insights

25 Less Activity in 2014 $22 billion divestments $44.6 billion deals Source: EY Global Mining

26 Only 1 in 10,000

27 Exploration Financing by Juniors $1, Amount Raised (US$ mil) $1,000 $ Indexed Metals Price (May 2008=1) $ Source: SNL Metals & Mining

28 Source: Bloomberg Running Out Of Money

29 Getting Desperate! 57% share offerings less than $1 million Source: EY Global Mining

30 Source: Hunting Securities Junior G&A High

31 Gold Moves in Long Cycles Source: Global Financial Data, US Bureau of Labor Statistics

32 The 1970 Bull Market Price Corrections Source: Dundee Wealth

33 Round Trip for Gold Stocks Source: Bloomberg

34 XAU/Gold Long Term Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, LBMA, DCM Economics

35 Gold Stocks Undervalued Price to Book Value Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec Source: Bloomberg

36 Source: Bloomberg Fourth Major Opportunity

37 Royalty Business Model * Revenue royalties & streams Source: Franco-Nevada

38 Project Generators Beat The Market 350 Price Performance (Re-Based) Source: Visual Capitalist

39 Change in Gold ETF s Source: Bloomberg, Dundee Economics

40 Chinese Gold Demand Shanghai Gold Deliveries (tonnes weekly totals) week MA Date: July 3, 2015 Source: Shanghai Gold Exchange, Sharelynx Gold, DCM Economics

41 India Gold Demand INDIA Gold Imports (monthly tonnes) month MA Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Last Month: November 2014 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, DCM Economics

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43 Adrian Day is a well-known global newsletter writer and money manager. He is not registered in Canada and unable to accept business from Canadian residents, nor can he provide individual investment advice to such persons. If you wish to contact him, please write P.O. Box 6643, Annapolis, MD 21401, U.S.A., AssetManagement@AdrianDay.com, phone This is not a solicitation for business. Adrian Day, his staff, clients, and subscribers may own securities mentioned herein. He may be buying or selling securities discussed herein concurrently, before or after this seminar and may be acting for clients in a manner contrary to implied recommendation at this seminar.