UKRAINE SITUATION AND THE INFLUENCE ON THE TRAFFIC SHIFTS

Transcription

1 UKRAINE SITUATION AND THE INFLUENCE ON THE TRAFFIC SHIFTS Actions taken to handle the impact on Sofia FIR Chavdar Bachev, dep. Director Ops, Sofia ATCC 1

2 Introduction 2

3 Factors developed the situation Political situation in Ukraine changed extremely fast in the beginning of 2014; 16 March 2014 г. - a referendum on cancellation of autonomous region status of Crimea took place; Fast actions of transformation of ATS provision by Simferopol ACC; Transfer of provision of ATS from Simferopol to Odesa/Dnypropetrovsk ACCs, undertaken by Ukrainian authorities. 3

4 Factors developed the situation Russian aeronautical publications, including AIC 04/15 was issued, which was in conflict with Ukraine AIC 02/15. It claimed that the four segments or ATS routes mentioned in Ukraine AIC 02/15 are under control of Simferopol Air Traffic Management Centre. The latter led to provision of ATS in a single airspace by more than one provider; ICAO issued a letter -EUR/NAT TEC(FOL/CUP) New trajectories of the main traffic flow led to increased sector-load in Sofia ACC. 4

5 Impact on traffic flows 5

6 Overflight traffic OVERFLIGHT TRAFFIC COUNTS FOR 2014 vs Sector VARNA NUMBER OF FLIGHTS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 6

7 Impact on Sofia ACC Short notice Traffic concentration Increase in complexity Unstable flow patterns Limited Reaction Time Unknown network effects Off-season onset Non-critical sectors affected Some capacity available 7

8 The Plan 8

9 Tactical Tactical Short Term Mid Term 0 72 hours 72 hours 1 month 1 month 1 year Impact Assessment Provide information to operational staff Roster change Provide information to AO 9

10 Short Term Tactical Short Term Mid Term 0 72 hours 72 hours 1 month 1 month 1 year Airspace Design Procedures People Technical Traffic analysis New layered sectors Re-calculate capa Identify alternative Routings Assess configuration Identify OS RR Scenarios Tactical FL constraints OTMVs for impacted sectors Safety New roster scheme Licensed admin staff Retired ATCOs Cross-training New sector training Reporting procedures and daily analysis of sector loads ATM system reconfiguration VCS reconfiguration Automated scripts 10

11 Mid Term Tactical Short Term Mid Term 0 72 hours 72 hours 1 month 1 month 1 year Ensure continuity of operations Prepare for the peak summer season Ensure service is sustainable in the long term 11

12 Mid Term Tactical Short Term Mid Term 0 72 hours 72 hours 1 month 1 month 1 year Post season analysis and lessons learned New sectors and sector configurations ATM system architecture update and new ATCO tools Reorganization of OPS room (new CWP) New training facilities Increased number of ab-initio controllers Cross-training OTMVs for the whole ACC Large re-organisation of critical FIR interfaces 12

13 Additional Factors 13

14 The Factors Neighboring FIRs reduced capacity due to various reasons. In result up to 10 sectors in Sofia ACC were opened last year. In the Caspian Sea cruise missiles type "Caliber were fired. Others 14

15 Neighboring FIRs reduced capacity This picture shows re-routed traffic up to 70% of the demand 251 flights. 15

16 Avoidance of the interface Iran-Turkey The main part of the traffic from the Middle East to Europe and vice versa flies through Iran, Turkey, Bulgaria. On 09 October it became clear that the Russian navy in the Caspian Sea fired cruise missiles type "Caliber" to destroy targets in Syria. In connection with these developments, EASA issued a Safety Bulletin, and ICAO issued a letter to the States with a call for a careful evaluation of all aspects. 16

17 Avoidance options 3258 NM 3250 NM Current best option NM Difference of149 NM ~ 20 min, flight time or 4.76% of total flight time 17

18 Conclusions Overall the intention of airlines to continue using the current shortest option. The route to circumvent via Saudi Arabia is limited by the norms of a longitudinal separation and capacity constraints. The additional flight time will require a fundamental change in the business model of major airlines taking into account that the average flight time per day on one aircraft is over 18 hours. The addition would constitute over 60 additional minutes, leading to inability to do their flights program. The option of circumvention could be used mostly in the event that there is a tail wind or a strong headwind on the main track. 18

19 28 April 2016 network organization change 19

20 Eastbound Traffic 20

21 Westbound Traffic 21

22 Family Sectors Varna issues RONBU ARGES KOMA N A LUGEB DINRO REVDA IRDUM BINBI B INKOM C D ARR LTBA/FJ NEGEM ODER O UDRO S ARTAT IBLAL RIXEN MAKOL 22

23 Family Sectors Varna new sectorisation RONBU ARGES KOMA N A LUGEB DINRO REVDA IRDUM BINBI B INKOM C DFL including D NEGEM ODER O UDRO S ARTAT IBLAL RIXEN MAKOL 23

24 Conclusion Traffic increase : 30% for the ACC 90% for impacted sectors Complexity increase 40% (Draft PRR) Worst CB summer in 15 years Zero delay (regardless of reason) No RR scenarios implemented KEA performance improved Best safety performance on record for impacted sectors 24

25 Thank You! 25