The Anatomy of Delays:

Transcription

1 The Anatomy of Delays: Complexity and Interconnectivity of NAS Traffic Flow Agam N. Sinha Diane E. Boone 16 February 2001

2 Topics Background Three scenarios from actual operations in June 2000 A. Widespread delays resulting from local problems B. Congestion due to en route severe weather C. Capacity reduction due to airport weather conditions

3 EnRoute Centers of Contiguous USA (CONUS) ZSE Seattle ZOA Oakland ZLA Los Angeles ZLC Salt Lake ZAB Albuquerque ZDV Denver ZFW Fort Worth ZMP Minneapolis ZBW Boston ZAU ZAU ZOB ZNY Chicago Cleveland New York IDZIDZID ZDC ZKC Indianapolis ZDC Washington Kansas City Washington ZHU Houston ZME Memphis ZTL Atlanta ZJX Jacksonville ZMA Miami

4 Newark (EWR) Arrival Routes from the West

5 EWR and Kennedy (JFK) Arrival Routes from the West

6 EWR, JFK and LaGuardia (LGA) Arrival Routes from the West

7 EWR, JFK, LGA and Philadelphia (PHL) Arrival Routes from the West

8 New York Area and DC Metro Arrival Routes from the West

9 And that is just the NY area and DC metro arrivals Adding in other arrival routes, departure and crossing flows further limits options

10 A) Widespread Delays Resulting from Local Problems Newark (EWR) Arrival Routes NY TRACON Cleveland Center NY Center EWR Arrival/Departure Throughput 19:35 Demand/capacity imbalance at Newark creates holding in NY TRACON and NY Center. 19:40 NY Center notifies Cleveland Center it cannot accept anymore Newark arrivals for a short time period (5-10 mins)

11 A) Widespread Delays Resulting from Local Problems Holding Sectors Chicago Center Cleveland Center Indianapolis Center 19:40 Cleveland Center begins to hold EWR arrivals and immediately notifies Indianapolis and Chicago Centers it can no longer accept any more Newark arrivals. Indianapolis and Chicago begin holding in affected sectors.

12 A) Widespread Delays Resulting from Local Problems Additional Holding Sectors Minneapolis Center Congestion Chicago Center 19:45 Holding patterns for 15 EWR-bound aircraft block airspace for other traffic and create congestion in other sectors as well - directly affecting over 70 other aircraft. 19:50 Chicago Center notifies Minneapolis Center that it can not accept any more EWR arrivals and Minneapolis begins to hold EWR arrivals.

13 A) Widespread Delays Resulting from Local Problems MSP Congestion E.g., Boston Center south and westbound traffic is constrained ORD DTW E.g., ORD departures to east and arrivals from south and east begin to be constrained IND CVG CLE PIT E.g., Other departures are also affected due to growing overhead congestion Other traffic flows and sectors without EWR traffic are also affected as problem time increases, affecting an estimated 250 aircraft within 20 minutes

14 A) Widespread Delays Resulting from Local Problems MSP Congestion ORD DTW IND CVG CLE PIT Arrival/Departure Throughput Result: 5-10 minute unplanned hold for 15 Newark arrivals affects an estimated 250 aircraft in 20 minutes

15 B) Congestion Due to En route Severe Weather East bound traffic through Cleveland and Indianapolis Centers is restricted because of en route congestion due to severe weather Note: Routes shown are for DC Metro area arrivals NY Area traffic flows NY Area Airports Severe Weather

16 B) Congestion Due to En route Severe Weather NY Area bound traffic is rerouted south through Indianapolis Center Severe Weather NY Area traffic flows NY Area Airports

17 B) Congestion Due to En route Severe Weather NY area traffic reroutes now interact with DC Metro and other traffic in Indianapolis and Washington NY Area Centers creating congestion traffic flows NY Area Airports Severe Weather DC Metro traffic flows DC Metro Airports Congestion

18 B) Congestion Due to En route Severe Weather DC Metro traffic from west is rerouted out of Indianapolis Center to alleviate some of the congestion Severe Weather NY Area Airports DC Metro Airports Congestion

19 B) Congestion Due to En route Severe Weather Reroute sends more traffic over ATL departure routes creating congestion - departures out of ATL, DFW, and IAH are restricted Severe Weather NY Area Airports DC Metro Airports IAH DFW ATL Arrival/Departure Throughput Congestion

20 C) Capacity Reduction due to Airport Weather Conditions Congestion SFO Airport Weather Conditions Arrival/Departure Throughput Low visibility at San Francisco Airport lowers arrival/departure rates resulting in Congestion (Note: Routes shown are San Francisco arrivals)