Future ATM Concepts & Technology

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1 Future ATM Concepts & Technology R. John Hansman Director MIT International Center for Air Transportation

2 Future = Post NextGen & SESAR Initial Implementation

3 Simple Feedback Model of System Adaptation Predictive, Reactive, Catalytic Transitions Disturbances Demand Performance Precipitating Change Event or Condition Implementation System Capability Monitoring & Forecasting Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics Media Selected Actions Change Process Corrective Actions Transformative Actions Stakeholder Awarness Aviation Community Loop Public Pressure Loop Public Awareness

4 Catalytic Example MH370 - Global Aircraft Tracking ICAO Proposal for 15 min reporting in remote areas and ICAO Global Aeronautical Distress and Safety System (GADSS) Technology Independent Multiple Potential Technologies Existing FANS 1A CPDLC Packages Satellite ACARS Satellite Based ADS-B (Inmarrsat/NavCanada) Satellite Orbit Configurations Geocentric (Inmarrsat) High orbit, broad coverage per sat, issue at high latitudes Polar (Iridium) Low orbit, limited coverage per sat, good high latitude coverage Operational Benefits Unclear Potential to leverage tracking for ATM Benefits

5 Emergent Drivers for ATM Modernization Demand Economic Growth Access to Air Transportation Safety Catalytic Events (Grand Canyon, Los Ceritos, MH370) Capacity Delays Cost Fuel Efficiency Environmental Impact Demand System Capability Implementation Selected Actions Change Process Corrective Actions Disturbances Performance # Operations Throughput RPM, RTM Flight Hours # Airports Stakeholder Awarness Aviation Community Loop Monitoring & Forecasting Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics Safety & Capacity Drivers

6 Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) by World Region NextGen Origin Data source: ICAO/IATA

7 Flight Delay Trends US Data NextGen Origin Data source: FAA Operational Network (OPSNET) (data through Jan 14)

8 Consumer Complaints from 1998 to 2011 NextGen Origin Data source: DOT Aviation Consumer Protection Division (Data through Jun-11)

9 Crude Oil and Jet Fuel Price Trends NextGen Origin Data sources: EIA Independent Statistics & Analysis (Data through December 2014)

10 Additional Drivers for Modernization: Environmental Concerns Noise Emissions Stage 4 (Equipment) Airports (Capacity) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

11 Costs 260 FAA Ops Cost/ARTCC Ops Then Year Dollars Data source: FAA Budget and Administrators Fact Book

12 Future = Post NextGen & SESAR Initial Implementation

13 Future Technologies After the NextGen/SESAR investment there will be limited interest in another round of air/ground technology investment We will be constrained by the performance levels incorporated in the Standards and equipment defined by NextGen/SESAR Most technological changes will come from exogenous technical development Cloud based systems Wireless systems Optimization

14 NextGen-SESAR CNS Technologies

15 Performance Based Navigation RNAV and RNP >90% air carrier fleet >30% air carrier fleet

16 ADS-B (1 sec update) Radar Tracks Other Aircraft Global Navigation Satellite System Coverage Volume Aircraft Cockpit Air to Air ADS-B Out Position & intent broadcast from aircraft to ground or other aircraft Air to Ground Air Vehicle Component ADS-B In Information transmitted from ground to the aircraft Avionics Integration Cockpit-Based Applications Self-separation Equivalent VFR operations Traffic & runway awareness Airspace, weather, terrain awareness Precision Navigation Cockpit ATC Operating Procedures Ground Component ATC Integration ATC-Based Applications Surveillance Separation procedures Trajectory-based operations Air Traffic Control

17 Source: NavCanada Satellite Based ADS-B North Atlantic Application

18 Source: NavCanada ADS-B Iridium Orbital Constellation

19 System Wide Information Management Source: FAA

20 Source: SITA Voice Datalink Mode 2 VHF Network

21 Capabilities NextGen User Benefits Dependent Upon Approved Applications and Operational Capabilities Applications Stakeholder Benefits stk 1 stk 2 stk 3 b 1 (t) Aircraft Operational Capability Operational Procedures Application 1 Application 2 b 2 (t) b 3 (t) benefits Level of Benefit/Cost Significant Some/Indirect ATC Operational Capability. Application x c 1 (t) stk 1 stk 2 stk 3 None/ Insignificant c 2 (t) ADS-B as NextGen Pathfinder Airborne Equipage Requirement Certification and Procedures c 3 (t) costs Disaggregate benefit/cost approach adapted from Marias and Weigel

22 Operating Procedures are the critical element in the integration triad If procedures are not updated to reflect that NextGen capabilities then there there is limited benefit and limited stakeholder buy-in Importance of NextGen Procedure Development NextGen and SESAR will provide the technical infrastructure. Need to develop processes to approve innovative operational procedures. Ground Infrastructure Operational Procedures Aircraft Capability

23 Feedback Model of System Transition Demand System Capability System Behavior Catalytic Event Implementation Process Safety and Environmental Approval Processes Awareness Building Process Capability Options Solution Refinement Loop Stakeholder Awareness Public Awareness Change Process Selected Actions Collective Decision Making Negotiation Loop Stakeholder Preferences Objective Formation Stakeholder Values, Context Transition Model : Alexandra Mozdznowska

24 Safety Management System (SMS)Classification of Severity & Likelihood Extremely Remote = (quantitative) 1x10-7 to 1x10-9 Hazardous = Serious or fatal injury to small number of occupants or cabin crew Target risk classified by ATO Safety Management System standards Hazardous assumption & 10-7 assumption Risk also compared to ground fatality risk from commercial aviation Frequency approximately 1x10-7 fatalities/hr due to Part 91 ops

25 RNAV application at Boston Logan R22R Departures Pre-RNAV RNAV RNAV Source: Massport

26 SESAR Essential Operational Changes

27 Future Concepts Absent catalytic events the system will change by evolution and adaptation Adapt to NextGen/SESAR technologies Strong NextGen/SESAR concepts will survive if they can be made operational System will adapt to emerging drivers Point capacity limits Environmental drivers (Noise, GHG) Cost will emerge as key driver Concept Types Evolutionary (e.g. Optimization and Refinement) Obvious but Politically Difficult (e.g. Dynamic Facility Consolidation) High Payoff, Out There (e.g. Formation Ops)

28 Meta Optimization CDM-2 Evolution of CDM at both Tactical and Strategic level Enabled by SWIM Data Mining, New Optimization Approaches Communication Systems and Cloud Increase Capacity and Improve Operational Efficiency ATM Service Providers Realtime and predictive capacities Smoothed matched demand Dynamic Airspace Reallocation Stochastic vs.. Deterministic Approaches Predictability and Robustness Airlines Increased predictability and efficiency Requires real time optimization and internal prioritization

29 Speed Optimization Example Max Range Cruise (MRC):

30 Obvious but Politically Difficulty Dynamic Facility Consolidation Cost, Efficiency and Robustness Opportunity Technically Feasible ZSE ZMP ZOA ZLC ZDV ZKC ZAU ZBW ZOB ZNY ZID ZDC ZLA ZAB ZFW ZME ZTL ZJX ZHU ZMA

31 TRACONS

32 Out There Concepts Enabling Advanced Formation Operations Enroute Fuel Efficiency, Reduced Costs/Labor Terminal Runway Throughput Need to work formation issues Need to work failure cases ADS-B performance standards not sufficient DO 260B

33

34 Formation Approaches Lateral vs. Longitudinal Wake Vortex Separation 28L 28R Limited Reduction Possible in Longitudinal Separation due to Vortex Dynamics % Throughput Improvement Lateral Position of Wake well known close to aircraft Close Dependent Parallel Approaches or Formation Approaches enabled by accurate guidance technologies % Throughput Improvement

35 Comments?

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