Monthly Employment Watch: Milwaukee and the Nation's Largest Cities

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1 Monthly Employment Watch: Milwaukee and the Nation's Largest Cities A monthly report on employment trends in the nation s largest cities Prepared by: The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development February 2009 For further information contact: Professor Marc V. Levine Telephone:

2 About This Report Each month, the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development, drawing on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, monitors employment trends in Milwaukee and the nation s 50 largest cities. In addition, the Center also compares employment trends in Milwaukee to a smaller and more directly comparable group of peer cities, the 20 largest cities of the Northeast-Midwest Frostbelt region. Each month, the data compiled by the Center display year-over-year total employment for three different time periods: a) the most recent year (2007-); b) the past four years (2004-), since the current mayoral administration took office (the last political cycle); and c) since 2000, the peak of the last business cycle. By looking at three different time periods, and two different samples of cities, we hope to provide a fuller sense of how Milwaukee s employment growth stacks up against other big cities over time, and how Milwaukee s position has changed over time.

3 The Monthly Employment Watch: The federal government s stimulus package cannot come quickly enough for the deteriorating labor market in Milwaukee and big cities across the country. According to preliminary city employment data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for, the recession that has gripped Milwaukee for almost a year and a half continues to intensify. For the 17 th consecutive month, the city saw employment fall compared to the same month a year earlier, by 5,090 residents in compared to 2007 (a decline of 2.04%). This is the largest year-over-year employment decline in any month since the recession began locally in August 2007, and the city s preliminary employment total of 244,248 is the lowest reported for that month by the BLS since the current data series began in As Table 1 shows, employment decline appeared to be slowing in the city of Milwaukee in the early months of ; however, the employment losses since May make clear that this labor market contraction shows no sign of relenting. The employment losses reported in Milwaukee in November and are substantially greater than earlier in the year, a sign that the trough of this recession is far from evident. Clearly, the financial meltdown of September, the continuing travails of manufacturing, and the sharp decline this fall and winter in consumer spending continue to take a serious toll on Milwaukee s labor market indeed, on urban labor markets throughout the country. Table 1: Monthly Year-over-Year Employment Change in the City of Milwaukee* Month Employment Change % Change July ( ) % August % September % October -2, % November -2, % -3, % January (2007-) -4, % February -1, % March -1, % April % May -1, % June -3, % July -3, % August -2, % September -2, % October -2, % November -4, % (p) -5, % * These figures vary from earlier Monthly Employment Watch tables, which reported preliminary BLS monthly employment estimates. The data in Table 1 reflect revisions and re-estimates by BLS and are considered more accurate.

4 In fact, among the nation s 50 largest cities, 38 registered year-over-year employment declines in (including, of course, Milwaukee). This compares to 37 cities recording employment decline in November, 27 in October, 24 in September, 20 in August, 14 in May, and only 7 in April, a dramatic sign of the growing national scope of the recession. Paradoxically, though, as hard as the recession is hitting in Milwaukee, our employment decline over the past year is far from the worst experienced among the nation s 50 largest cities. Indeed, Milwaukee s employment performance ranks better among the largest cities over the past year, than compared to our ranking over longer periods (both the period and the period). It appears that Milwaukee s longer-term structural decline, relative to other cities, is more severe than the impact of the current business cycle, in which our employment losses place us near the middle of the pack (as opposed to the longer time periods in which we rank near the bottom in employment performance). In, Milwaukee ranked 30 th among the nation s 50 largest cities in the rate of annual employment growth since 2007 (compared to 32 nd in November and 35 th in October). Thus, ironically, even as our employment losses mounted in November and, our relative ranking improved a sign that the recession was beginning to batter other cities even more severely than Milwaukee. In, Milwaukee s annual employment performance ranked 10 th among the nation s 20 largest Northeast-Midwest Frostbelt cities (compared to 11 th in November and 13 th in October). Since the UWMCED Monthly Employment Watch began in June 2007, Milwaukee has consistently ranked well below the median in employment growth in both groups of cities, so these rankings represent an improvement. It remains to be seen whether this is a short-run, cyclical trend resulting from particular, as yet unidentified features of this recession, or whether Milwaukee has begun to improve from the structural decline evident in the longer-term employment trends. At this point, looking at Milwaukee s relative ranking in employment growth between 2004-, or between 2000-, there is little evidence of structural improvement. Since 2004, employment in Milwaukee has shrunk by 5,130 residents (2.06%), placing the city 45 th among the nation s 50 largest cities in employment growth during this period (unchanged from last month). Among the 20 largest Frostbelt cities, Milwaukee ranked 15 th in employment change between (down from 14 th last month). These rankings confirm, once again, that Milwaukee ranks among the very lowest tier of the nation s largest cities in employment growth since the current mayoral administration took office. Since 2000, near the end of the last national business cycle, employment in Milwaukee has shrunk by 27,283, a massive 10.05% decline. Milwaukee ranks 47 h among the nation s 50 largest cities during this period in employment performance; among Frostbelt cities, we rank 17 th out of 20. Measuring employment at comparable points in the business cycle is the way to assess

5 structural trends in the labor market (i.e. comparing trough to trough or peak to peak ). Thus, the truly disturbing feature of the current numbers is that, even before reaching the trough of this cycle, we ve already registered a huge 10% employment loss from near the trough of the last business cycle. The city s official unemployment rate jumped from 6.6% in 2007 to 7.9% in. Comparison of unemployment rates in the 50 largest cities reveals that Milwaukee had the 35 th highest unemployment rate among the nation s 50 largest cities; this compares to 36 th in November, 33 rd in October, 32 nd in September, 38 h in August, and 38 h in July. These rankings represent an improvement for Milwaukee over very recent trends; as recently as November 2007, for example, Milwaukee had the nation s 47 th highest big city unemployment rate, compared to 35 th today. Unemployment rates were up sharply in cities across Wisconsin in, standing at 9.0% in Janesville, 10.8% in Racine, and 11.4% in Beloit along with Milwaukee, the hardest hit cities in the state.

6 Table 2 -- Employment Growth in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities: % Change 1 Tucson 255, , % 2 Virginia Beach 218, , % 3 Las Vegas 276, , % 4 Houston 991,427 1,001, % 5 El Paso 239, , % 6 San Antonio 588, , % 7 Fort Worth 299, , % 8 Phoenix 814, , % 9 Mesa City 247, , % 10 Albuquerque 256, , % 11 San Francisco 419, , % 12 Wichita 183, , % 13 Dallas 567, , % 14 Oklahoma City 246, , % 15 San Jose 425, , % 16 Omaha 221, , % 17 Austin 401, , % 18 Philadelphia 579, , % 19 San Diego 659, , % 20 Honolulu 439, , % 21 Fresno 208, , % 22 New York 3,672,236 3,632, % 23 Portland 287, , % 24 Seattle 356, , % 25 Columbus 401, , % 26 Sacramento 203, , % 27 Oakland 182, , % 28 Boston 291, , % 29 Denver 303, , % 30 Milwaukee 249, , % 31 Baltimore 259, , % 32 Indianapolis 404, , % 33 Jacksonville 395, , % 34 Miami 170, , % 35 Minneapolis 206, , % 36 Washington, D.C. 306, , % 37 Colorado Springs 208, , % 38 Kansas City 219, , % 39 Cleveland 170, , % 40 Nashville 305, , % 41 Louisville 341, , % 42 Atlanta 217, , % 43 St. Louis 144, , % 44 Chicago 1,257,419 1,209, % 45 Memphis 298, , % 46 Charlotte 325, , % 47 Los Angeles 1,827,706 1,736, % 48 Long Beach 226, , % 49 Detroit 308, , % 50 Tulsa 194, , %

7 Table 3 - Employment Growth in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities: % Change 1 Fort Worth 268, , % 2 Mesa City 226, , % 3 Phoenix 745, , % 4 Miami 151, , % 5 Fresno 191, , % 6 San Antonio 550, , % 7 Seattle 326, , % 8 Albuquerque 238, , % 9 Tucson 245, , % 10 Atlanta 199, , % 11 San Jose 404, , % 12 Omaha 210, , % 13 San Francisco 401, , % 14 Jacksonville 369, , % 15 Virginia Beach 211, , % 16 Wichita 176, , % 17 Boston 275, , % 18 Houston 963,637 1,001, % 19 New York 3,496,654 3,632, % 20 Denver 287, , % 21 El Paso 233, , % 22 Memphis 277, , % 23 Colorado Springs 196, , % 24 Washington, D.C. 290, , % 25 Columbus 386, , % 26 Austin 391, , % 27 Portland 277, , % 28 Sacramento 196, , % 29 Las Vegas 272, , % 30 San Diego 643, , % 31 Honolulu 429, , % 32 Nashville 293, , % 33 Charlotte 309, , % 34 Oakland 179, , % 35 Baltimore 253, , % 36 Louisville 331, , % 37 Chicago 1,215,543 1,209, % 38 Indianapolis 397, , % 39 Philadelphia 582, , % 40 Los Angeles 1,752,538 1,736, % 41 Long Beach 217, , % 42 Kansas City 215, , % 43 Oklahoma City 248, , % 44 Dallas 576, , % 45 Milwaukee 249, , % 46 Minneapolis 208, , % 47 Tulsa 191, , % 48 St. Louis 147, , % 49 Cleveland 175, , % 50 Detroit 322, , %

8 Table 4 - Employment Growth in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities: % Change 1 Mesa City 205, , % 2 Phoenix 675, , % 3 Las Vegas 238, , % 4 Fort Worth 258, , % 5 San Antonio 522, , % 6 Fresno 183, , % 7 Tucson 230, , % 8 Miami 149, , % 9 Virginia Beach 200, , % 10 San Diego 601, , % 11 Albuquerque 235, , % 12 Sacramento 184, , % 13 Colorado Springs 186, , % 14 El Paso 222, , % 15 Seattle 325, , % 16 Houston 927,349 1,001, % 17 Atlanta 198, , % 18 Wichita 174, , % 19 Omaha 211, , % 20 New York 3,479,850 3,632, % 21 Honolulu 421, , % 22 Charlotte 300, , % 23 Jacksonville 372, , % 24 Austin 394, , % 25 Washington, D.C. 293, , % 26 Columbus 392, , % 27 Denver 298, , % 28 Oklahoma City 246, , % 29 Long Beach 216, , % 30 Los Angeles 1,747,047 1,736, % 31 Memphis 295, , % 32 Nashville 305, , % 33 Portland 294, , % 34 Indianapolis 409, , % 35 Boston 298, , % 36 Baltimore 266, , % 37 Philadelphia 610, , % 38 Dallas 599, , % 39 Oakland 190, , % 40 Louisville 350, , % 41 Kansas City 226, , % 42 Chicago 1,303,297 1,209, % 43 Minneapolis 221, , % 44 Tulsa 200, , % 45 St. Louis 153, , % 46 San Francisco 465, , % 47 Milwaukee 271, , % 48 Cleveland 188, , % 49 San Jose 485, , % 50 Detroit 355, , %

9 Table 5 - Employment Growth in the 20 Largest Frostbelt Cities % Change 1 Buffalo 113, , % 2 Pittsburgh 143, , % 3 Wichita 183, , % 4 Omaha 221, , % 5 Philadelphia 579, , % 6 New York 3,672,236 3,632, % 7 Columbus 401, , % 8 Cincinnati 157, , % 9 Boston 291, , % 10 Milwaukee 249, , % 11 Baltimore 259, , % 12 Indianapolis 404, , % 13 St. Paul (MN) 137, , % 14 Minneapolis 206, , % 15 Washington, D.C. 306, , % 16 Kansas City 219, , % 17 Cleveland 170, , % 18 St. Louis 144, , % 19 Chicago 1,257,419 1,209, % 20 Detroit 308, , %

10 Table 6- Employment Growth in the 20 Largest Frostbelt Cities % Change 1 Cincinnati 145, , % 2 Omaha 210, , % 3 Wichita 176, , % 4 Boston 275, , % 5 New York 3,496,654 3,632, % 6 Washington, D.C. 290, , % 7 Columbus 386, , % 8 Baltimore 253, , % 9 Chicago 1,215,543 1,209, % 10 Buffalo 116, , % 11 Indianapolis 397, , % 12 Philadelphia 582, , % 13 Pittsburgh 145, , % 14 Kansas City 215, , % 15 Milwaukee 249, , % 16 Minneapolis 208, , % 17 St. Paul (MN) 140, , % 18 St. Louis 147, , % 19 Cleveland 175, , % 20 Detroit 322, , %

11 Table 7- Employment Growth in the 20 Largest Frostbelt Cities % Change 1 Wichita 174, , % 2 Omaha 211, , % 3 New York 3,479,850 3,632, % 4 Washington, D.C. 293, , % 5 Columbus 392, , % 6 Cincinnati 153, , % 7 Buffalo 118, , % 8 Indianapolis 409, , % 9 Pittsburgh 149, , % 10 Boston 298, , % 11 Baltimore 266, , % 12 Philadelphia 610, , % 13 Kansas City 226, , % 14 Chicago 1,303,297 1,209, % 15 Minneapolis 221, , % 16 St. Louis 153, , % 17 Milwaukee 271, , % 18 St. Paul (MN) 150, , % 19 Cleveland 188, , % 20 Detroit 355, , %

12 Table 8 -- Unemployment Rates in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities Omaha Honolulu Albuquerque Virginia Beach Oklahoma City Tulsa Austin Seattle San Antonio Houston Wichita Mesa City Minneapolis Boston Nashville Fort Worth Columbus Dallas El Paso San Francisco Colorado Springs Tucson Phoenix Denver Indianapolis New York San Diego Charlotte Miami Louisville Jacksonville Chicago Atlanta Portland Milwaukee St. Louis Philadelphia Memphis Baltimore San Jose Kansas City Cleveland Washington, D.C Las Vegas Sacramento Long Beach Los Angeles Oakland Fresno Detroit

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