Emerging Trends in Real Estate Sustaining Momentum but Taking Nothing for Granted

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1 Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015 Sustaining Momentum but Taking Nothing for Granted

2 PwC-ULI Outlook on trends 36th edition 368 interviews 1,055 survey responses 1,400+ participants, a record Who? District Councils-thank you!

3 New Markets for 2015 More investor interest in local markets Identify markets that are part of larger consolidated areas High growth areas Manufacturing resurgence Energy exposure Midwest stability Northwest growth

4 Average Length of Economic Cycles Trough to trough average economic cycle length (33 cycles) Average of the 3 cycles since 1990: 105 months Currently at 63 months and counting Is the current cycle nearing an end? (16 cycles) (6 cycles) (11 cycles) (3 cycles) Months Source: NBER

5 Firm Profitability Prospects for 2015

6 Sales of Large Commercial Properties in the United States Source: Real Capital Analytics

7 Moody s/rca Commercial Property Price Index, by Major/Nonmajor Markets Sources: Moody s and Real Capital Analytics Notes: Major markets are defined here as Boston, Chicago, LA, SF, NYC, DC. Data through 6/14

8 2015 Emerging Trends 18 Hour City Comes of Age

9 U.S. Markets to Watch Category Rank Total Rank Market (Category Rank) Investment Development Homebuilding 1 Houston Austin San Francisco Denver Dallas/Ft. Worth Los Angeles Charlotte Seattle Boston Raleigh/Durham Atlanta Orange County Nashville New York-Manhattan San Jose Portland, OR Oakland-East Bay Chicago Miami San Diego

10 18 Hour City Comes of Age 3-Year Urban Population Growth: % 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% New Orleans Cape Coral-Ft. Myers-Naples Orlando Deltona-Daytona Richmond Las Vegas Virginia Beach/Norfolk Sacramento Memphis Milwaukee Spokane Providence Cincinnati Buffalo Portland, ME Hartford Cleveland Washington, DC San Antonio New York-Manhattan Chicago Austin Charlotte Denver Seattle Atlanta Raleigh/Durham Dallas/Ft. Worth Houston Boston San Francisco Los Angeles -4.0% Detroit Poor Fair Good 2015 Market Survey Score Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 Emerging Trends in Real Estate

11 18 Hour City Comes of Age Two-Year Job Growth, by Market Costs of Doing Business Los Angeles 103% Seattle 101% Austin 101% Houston 99% Chicago 99% Dallas/Fortworth 94% Denver 94% Atlanta 90% Charlotte 86% Raleigh/Durham 85% Boston 120% San Francisco 118% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody s Analytics, as of June 30, 2014

12 San Jose Honolulu San Francisco Wash DC - MD Raleigh/Durham Seattle Wash DC - Northern Wash DC - District Charleston Houston Austin Oakland-East Bay Dallas/Ft. Worth Salt Lake Orange County Greenville San Diego Madison Albuquerque Portland Northern New Jersey Denver Indianapolis Minneapolis/St. Paul Philadelphia Kansas City Atlanta Baltimore Boise Chicago Oklahoma City Pittsburgh Cincinnati New Orleans Charlotte San Antonio Las Vegas Percent of total employment Jobs created 18 Hour City Comes of Age 30.0% 300, % 250, % Technology/energy jobs as % of total employment Jobs created in last 2 years 200, % 150, % 100, % 50, % -

13 2015 Emerging Trends The changing age game

14 The Changing Age Game 2015 U.S. Population by Age

15 The Changing Age Game 2015 U.S. Population by Age

16 The Changing Age Game Population that will be 80.0 making lifestyle decisions in the next five years millions - Millennial (30 plus) Baby Boomers (55-64) Source: US Census Bureau

17 New York-Manhattan San Francisco Pittsburgh Portland, ME Washington, DC - District New Orleans Portland Seattle Cleveland St. Louis Louisville Albuquerque Birmingham Buffalo Madison Deltona-Daytona Milwaukee Richmond Spokane Denver Detroit Charleston Minneapolis/St. Paul Baltimore Oakland-East Bay Cincinnati Chicago Las Vegas Austin Atlanta San Antonio Dallas/Ft. Worth The Changing Age Game 25.0% Millennials (early 30 s) and Boomers (55-64) as % of Total Market Population 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, December 31, 2013

18 2015 Emerging Trends Labor Markets Trending Toward Tipping Point

19 Labor Markets Trending Toward Tipping Point U.S. Labor Force Growth Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody s Analytics (Economic & Consumer Credit Analytics) forecast

20 Labor Markets Trending Toward Tipping Point 200 (000 s) Growth in population turning 65 outpaces the growth in population turning 16 Leaving Entering Labor Force Impact Source: US Census Bureau

21 2015 Emerging Trends Technology: Love it or Lose out

22 Technology Disruption is Everywhere 38 Years 75 Years 13 Years 4 Years 3.5 Years 3 Years Reaching 50 Million Users 2.5 Years 3 Days Source: Kofi Annan

23 Technology Disruption is Everywhere Industrial Office Retail Hotel Multifamily Same day delivery Shared workspace Omnichannel Shared lodging Enhanced amenities 3-D printing Flexible layout 3-D printing Personal systems Mobile ordering maint. RFID Advanced building systems Onsite electronic marketing Electronic check-in Automated services

24 2015 Emerging Trends Event Risk is Here to Stay

25 Global Investment in the US as % of Total Property Sales

26 Global Office Investment, by US Markets (billions) Source: Real Capital Analytics, as of 7/31/14

27 Global Industrial Investment, by US Markets (billions) Source: Real Capital Analytics, as of 7/31/14

28 Global Retail Investment, by US Markets (billions) Source: Real Capital Analytics, as of 7/31/14

29 2015 Emerging Trends Darwinian market keeps squeeze on companies 900 pound gorilla swings into view Time for the U.S. to get serious about infrastructure Housing steps off the roller coaster Keeping an eye on the bubble emerging concerns Efficiencies $300 billion $2.0 trillion Equilibrium?

30 900 pound gorilla swings into view DC Assets $6.0T Pension Real Estate Allocation 5.0% Potential Real Estate Investment - $300Billion? Source: ICI, PREA

31 Prospects for Commercial/Multifamily Subsectors in 2015

32 Rating 2015 Local Outlook: Raleigh/Durham %

33 2015 Emerging Trends Raleigh/Durham, by Sector Investment #9 #20 #4 #26 #42 # Housing Industrial Office Multifamily Hotel Retail

34 2015 Emerging Trends Investment Ratings

35 2015 Emerging Trends Investment Ratings

36 2015 Expected Best Bets Seek Alpha Exploit Technology Refinance Develop Industrial Rediscover the Suburbs

37 I ll Stop Here so You Can Let This Information Sink in!

38 Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015 Sustaining Momentum but Taking Nothing for Granted

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