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1 Get Smart Market Insights from Our Research Team 217 Customer Conference

2 Presenters Amanda Nunnink Amanda Nunnink Steve Steve Guggenmos Guggenmos Sara Steve Hoffman Griffin Steve Sara Griffin Hoffmann Senior Director Senior Director Production & Sales Production & Sales Vice President Vice President Research & Research & Modeling Modeling Director Manager Investments Production & Portfolio Management Sales Manager Director Production & Sales Investments & Portfolio Management

3 Industry Survey How did respondents anticipate the multifamily market to grow over the next 3 to years? 1% said slow down 2% said stabilize 6% said grow slightly or significantly

4 Industry Survey Reasons why multifamily market will grow Reasons why multifamily market will slow down 32% demand/supply 17% growing population 42% saturation or oversupply 12% how it s been trending

5 Industry Survey How will the rental market grow compared to the homeownership market? 26% say markets will remain same 38% say rental market will grow 37% say 6% homeownership Grow slightly will grow or significantly more

6 Rent vs. Own 21% say more people choose to rent 11% say it s too expensive to buy % say it s hard to qualify for a mortgage 8% say more people choose to buy % say people want to own a home 3% say rent is too expensive

7 Supply Rental Demand Keeps Rising Increasing number of renter households by necessity and choice 8 M Owner Households Renter Households Homeownership Rate 7% Total Households Growth 2-217: 9.4 million % 66% Renter Household Growth 2-217: 9.2 million 64% 4 62% Owner Household Growth 2-217: 3 6% 262,2 2 8% (Q2) Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey, Freddie Mac Homeownership Rate down.3%

8 Rent Growth Long-run rent growth of 3.3% going back to 199 Historic (REIS) Average ( ) REIS RealPage Axiometrics Freddie Mac Sources: REIS, RealPage, Axiometrics, Freddie Mac

9 Rent Growth Long-run rent growth of 3.3% going back to Average ( ) REIS RealPage Axiometrics Freddie Mac Sources: REIS, RealPage, Axiometrics, Freddie Mac

10 Vacancy Rates Long-run vacancy rate.3% going back to 199 Historical (REIS) Average ( ) REIS RealPage Axiometrics Freddie Mac Sources: REIS, RealPage, Axiometrics, Freddie Mac

11 Vacancy Rates Long-run vacancy rate.3% going back to Average ( ) REIS RealPage Axiometrics Freddie Mac Sources: REIS, RealPage, Axiometrics, Freddie Mac

12 Gross Income Growth Long-run gross income growth of 3.4% going back to 199 Historic (REIS) Average ( ) REIS RealPage Axiometrics Freddie Mac Inflation Sources: REIS, RealPage, Axiometrics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Moody s Analytics Forecasted, Freddie Mac

13 Gross Income Growth Long-run gross income growth of 3.4% going back to Average ( ) REIS RealPage Axiometrics Freddie Mac Inflation Sources: REIS, RealPage, Axiometrics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Moody s Analytics Forecasted, Freddie Mac

14 Treasury, Spread and Cap Rate Multifamily Cap Rates & U.S. Treasuries Current risk premium demanded to hold real estate is above average levels 1% 9% 8% 1-year Treasury Rate Cap Rate Spread CPPI (RHS) % 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % Multifamily Price Index Sources: Real Capital Analytics (RCA) Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI), U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

15 Multifamily Origination Volume As a result of strong fundamentals, origination volume continues to set record years $3B $2 $2 $1 $1 $ $ * 217* Freddie Mac Multifamily Fannie Mae Multifamily Life Insurance Companies CMBS, Multifamily Only Other (Banks, S&Ls, Mortgage Co., etc) Freddie 217 Forecast Sources: MBA, Fannie Mae, ACLI, Wells Fargo Securities, and Freddie Mac

16 MF Permits, Starts and Completions (Thousands) Renter Occupied Households (Millions) Multifamily Supply Annual completions in 217 reached 3, expected to go higher but new construction continues to abate MF Permits MF Starts MF Completions Renter Occupied Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Moody s Analytics

17 Demand vs. Supply Demand remains just as strong but supply increasing compared to prior few years K New Supply Absorptions Avg Absorptions Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

18 New York Dallas Houston Washington, DC Atlanta Seattle Los Angeles Denver Austin Chicago Boston Nashville Charlotte Orlando Phoenix Orange Co San Antonio Portland Miami Salt Lake City Raleigh Minneapolis San Francisco Philadelphia Tampa Bay Northern NJ San Jose San Diego Ft. Worth Kansas City Columbus Ft. Lauderdale Milwaukee Baltimore Las Vegas Oakland Palm Beach Supply Markets with Highest New Supply K Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

19 New York Dallas Houston Washington, DC Atlanta Seattle Los Angeles Denver Austin Chicago Boston Nashville Charlotte Orlando Phoenix Orange Co San Antonio Portland Miami Salt Lake City Raleigh Minneapolis San Francisco Philadelphia Tampa Bay Northern NJ San Jose San Diego Ft. Worth Kansas City Columbus Ft. Lauderdale Milwaukee Baltimore Las Vegas Oakland Palm Beach Supply New Supply & Inventory Change 3 K Avg Supply Inventory Change % 9% 8% 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

20 New York Dallas Houston Washington, DC Atlanta Seattle Los Angeles Denver Austin Chicago Boston Nashville Charlotte Orlando Phoenix Orange Co San Antonio Portland Miami Salt Lake City Raleigh Minneapolis San Francisco Philadelphia Tampa Bay Northern NJ San Jose San Diego Ft. Worth Kansas City Columbus Ft. Lauderdale Milwaukee Baltimore Las Vegas Oakland Palm Beach Supply Supply & Absorptions K Avg Supply Avg Absorptions Avg Absorptions Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

21 New York Dallas Houston Washington, DC Atlanta Seattle Los Angeles Denver Austin Chicago Boston Nashville Charlotte Orlando Phoenix Orange Co San Antonio Portland Miami Salt Lake City Raleigh Minneapolis San Francisco Philadelphia Tampa Bay Northern NJ San Jose San Diego Ft. Worth Kansas City Columbus Ft. Lauderdale Milwaukee Baltimore Las Vegas Oakland Palm Beach Supply Annual Average New Supply K Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

22 New York Dallas Houston Washington, DC Atlanta Seattle Los Angeles Denver Austin Chicago Boston Nashville Charlotte Orlando Phoenix Orange Co San Antonio Portland Miami Salt Lake City Raleigh Minneapolis San Francisco Philadelphia Tampa Bay Northern NJ San Jose San Diego Ft. Worth Kansas City Columbus Ft. Lauderdale Milwaukee Baltimore Las Vegas Oakland Palm Beach Supply Annual Average New Supply & Absorption K Avg New Supply Avg Absorptions Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

23 New York City New Supply Absorptions K Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

24 New York City New Supply Absorptions Employment K % 4 4 4% 3 3 3% 2 2 2% 1 1 1% % -1% Sources: RealPage, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac

25 New York City New Supply Absorptions Rent Growth Vacancy K % 4 4 4% 3 3 3% 2 2 2% 1 1 1% % -1% Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

26 Los Angeles New Supply Absorptions K Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

27 Los Angeles New Supply Absorptions Employment K % 2.% 2.% 1.% 1.%.%.% Sources: RealPage, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac

28 Los Angeles New Supply Absorptions Rent Growth Vacancy Rate K % 8% 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

29 San Francisco New Supply Absorptions K Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

30 San Francisco New Supply Absorptions Employment 7 K % 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% Sources: RealPage, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac

31 San Francisco New Supply Absorptions Rent Growth Vacancy K % 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

32 Nashville New Supply Absorptions K Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

33 Nashville New Supply Absorptions Employment K % 4.% 3.% 3.% 2.% 2.% 1.% 1.%.%.% Sources: RealPage, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac

34 Nashville New Supply Absorptions Rent Growth Vacancy K % 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

35 Fort Lauderdale New Supply Absorptions 7 K Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

36 Fort Lauderdale New Supply Absorptions Employment 7 K 3.% 6 3.% 2.% 4 2.% 3 1.% 2 1.% 1.% % Sources: RealPage, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac

37 Fort Lauderdale New Supply Absorptions 7 K 8% % 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

38 Phoenix New Supply Absorptions K Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

39 Phoenix New Supply Absorptions Employment K % 3.% 2.% 2.% 1.% 1.%.%.% Sources: RealPage, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac

40 Phoenix New Supply Absorptions Rent Growth Vacancy K % 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % Sources: RealPage, Freddie Mac

41 Top 1 Markets with Highest Income Growth in 217 & 218 Metro Gross Income Vacancy Rate Metro Gross Income Vacancy Rate Seattle 6.6%.% Sacramento 4.8% 3.3% Tacoma.9% 3.1% Portland 4.7%.4% Sacramento.7% 2.9% Tacoma 4.% 3.% Portland.3%.2% Seattle 4.4%.6% Colorado Springs.2% 3.7% Ft. Lauderdale 4.3% 4.% Nashville 4.6%.8% Cleveland 4.3% 3.2% Los Angeles 4.4% 3.6% Tampa 4.2%.6% Oakland 4.2% 3.% West Palm Beach 4.2% 4.8% Ft. Worth 4.1% 4.2% Oakland 4.% 3.7% Riverside 4.1% 3.% Jacksonville 3.9% 6.2% Source: Freddie Mac

42 Affordability Growing Affordability Problem AMI: Under % AMI: %-8% AMI: 8%-1% AMI: 1%+ 6.6% 7.% 7.6% 8.9% 1.4% 1.%.9% 6.3% 6.7% 7.% 8.8% 9.4% 32.% 32.7% 33.1% 36.3% 37.% 36.8%.% 4.% 2.% 47.3% 43.7% 43.2% Sources: Freddie Mac tabulations of American Community Survey microdata. Affordability thresholds are based on the AMI of all MSAs in the United States

43 Affordability Multifamily very low-income (VLI) population is shrinking as rent growth outpaces income growth First Financing Second Financing Units VLI LI Median None VLI LI Median None Total 97, % 71.3% 13.3% 4.2% 4.3% 6.2% 21.% 9.4% TX 28,33 1.2% 74.% 13.6% 2.2% 3.2% 69.% 23.1% 4.8% FL 13,197 1.% 6.2% 34.1% 4.% 1.6% 38.7% 39.6% 2.2% GA 9, % 7.9% 8.7% 3.6% 2.1% 77.7% 14.8%.4% CO, % 67.6%.%.% 7.% 82.6% 9.%.4% NC,61 9.8% 88.2% 2.%.%.3% 83.9% 1.6%.3% CA 4, %.6% 1.6% 26.6% 2.% 9.8% 27.1% 6.6% AZ 4,14 34.% 6.%.7%.% 21.8% 74.% 3.3%.% NV 3,64 1.8% 67.6% 16.4%.3% 4.% 7.4% 2.1%.% WA 3,262 4.% 86.1% 1.6% 8.3% 1.1% 81.6% 11.% 6.3% Repeat financing of VLI affordability analysis (21 216) Source: Freddie Mac

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