Monthly Employment Watch: Milwaukee and the Nation's Largest Cities

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1 Monthly Employment Watch: Milwaukee and the Nation's Largest Cities A monthly report on employment trends in the nation s largest cities Prepared by: The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development January 2011 For further information contact: UWM Center for Economic Development Telephone:

2 About This Report Each month, the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development, drawing on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, monitors employment trends in Milwaukee and the nation s 50 largest cities. In addition, the Center also compares employment trends in Milwaukee to a smaller and more directly comparable group of peer cities, the 20 largest cities of the Northeast-Midwest Frostbelt region. The data compiled by the Center display year-over-year total employment for three different time periods: a) the most recent year (2009-), b) 2008, thereby encompassing a large portion of the current recession, and c) since 2000, the peak of the last business cycle. Year-over-year comparisons are used because the BLS local area data are not seasonally adjusted; thus, for example, month-bymonth comparisons would be distorted by seasonal fluctuations. By looking at monthly over-theyear employment trends in three different time periods, and two different samples of cities, we hope to provide a fuller sense of how Milwaukee s employment growth stacks up against other big cities over time, and how Milwaukee s position has changed over time. Change in Format of Monthly Employment Watch In the past, UWM Center for Economic Development has reported each month the latest preliminary data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics. However, the preliminary data are corrected and revised by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in subsequent months, and these changes often significantly affect the rankings of cities in our tables. Consequently, we will now use the revised data from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics in The Monthly Employment Watch. In practice, this will result in an additional one-month lag in the reported employment data; for example in this January 2011 report, instead of using the newly available November preliminary employment data, we will use the revised and corrected BLS numbers (the most recent revised data). Although we may sacrifice a month of timeliness in the data, we believe that using the revised numbers will make The Monthly Employment Watch a more reliable, a less potentially misleading, presentation of the relative employment performance of cities. 2

3 The Monthly Employment Watch: The City of Milwaukee labor market continues its slow improvement from the trough of the Great Recession, according to the latest monthly employment data for cities released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Year-over-year employment declined in Milwaukee between 2009 and by only 627, the second best monthly employment performance in the city since the Great Recession began in December This modest monthly employment loss is in stark contrast to a year ago, in 2009, when the city registered an over-the-year employment loss of 14,293 the trough of the recession in the city. As Figure 1 and Table 1 show, the annual employment losses posted in Milwaukee since 2009 have steadily diminished. Indeed, preliminary data for November not reported here since it is still preliminary and unrevised suggest that Milwaukee may now be registering small, over-the-year employment increases. The road back, however, will be long and arduous. Since the beginning of the Great Recession, employment in Milwaukee has dropped over 16,400; since the beginning of the decade, city employment is down over 23,600. Milwaukee s comparative over-the-year employment performance, compared to the nation s 50 largest cities, also suggests some improvement in the local labor market. Although Milwaukee has consistently ranked in mid-40s among the nation s 50 largest cities in employment growth throughout the past decade (occasionally ranking as low as 49 th ), Table 1 shows that between 2009 and, Milwaukee ranked 36 th among the nation s 50 largest cities (and 14 th among the nation s 20 largest Northeast-Midwest cities, as shown on Table 5). Although these are not stellar rankings by any means, they do reveal some improvement over the city s recent historical performance. For the entire decade, Milwaukee now ranks 40 th ; again, hardly outstanding, but a slight improvement from recent trends. In, Milwaukee s 10.4 percent official unemployment rate placed the city 34 th among the nation s 50 largest cities. 3

4 Figure 1 Milwaukee: Monthly Over-the-Year Employment Change 4

5 Table 1: Monthly Year-over-Year Employment Change in the City of Milwaukee* Month Employment Change % Change January ( ) February -1, March April May June July August September November -3, December -4, January ( ) -7, February -7, March -10, April -11, May -10, June -11, July -13, August -14, September -14, , November -13, December -14, January (2009-) -10, February -8, March -7, April -5, May -4, June -5, July -2, August September * These figures vary from earlier Monthly Employment Watch tables, which reported preliminary BLS monthly employment estimates. The data in Table 1 reflect revisions and re-estimates by BLS and are considered more accurate. 5

6 Table 2 -- Employment Growth in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities: % Change 1 Nashville 291, , % 2 Detroit 280, , % 3 Portland 273, , % 4 Memphis 271, , % 5 Austin 395, , % 6 Boston 285, , % 7 Chicago 1,160,986 1,187, % 8 Washington, D.C. 293, , % 9 Charlotte 309, , % 10 Mesa City 235, , % 11 Phoenix 774, , % 12 Virginia Beach 209, , % 13 San Jose 401, , % 14 Dallas 547, , % 15 Miami 168, , % 16 San Diego 618, , % 17 Cleveland 160, , % 18 New York 3,567,790 3,617, % 19 Fort Worth 304, , % 20 San Antonio 595, , % 21 Fresno 196, , % 22 St. Louis 137, , % 23 Louisville 324, , % 24 Houston 997,055 1,001, % 25 Tucson 260, , % 26 Baltimore 248, , % 27 Minneapolis 203, , % 28 Columbus 387, , % 29 Denver 290, , % 30 El Paso 241, , % 31 Long Beach 204, , % 32 Los Angeles 1,651,698 1,652, % 33 Honolulu 415, , % 34 San Francisco 412, , % 35 Seattle 345, , % 36 Milwaukee 244, , % 37 Atlanta 208, , % 38 Jacksonville 372, , % 39 Oakland 169, , % 40 Indianapolis 373, , % 41 Sacramento 186, , % 42 Philadelphia 561, , % 43 Albuquerque 245, , % 44 Colorado Springs 194, , % 45 Kansas City 201, , % 46 Oklahoma City 243, , % 47 Omaha 224, , % 48 Wichita 176, , % 49 Tulsa 177, , % 50 Las Vegas 248, , % 6

7 Table 3 - Employment Growth in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities: % Change 1 Austin 394, , % 2 San Antonio 594, , % 3 Dallas 553, , % 4 Fort Worth 307, , % 5 El Paso 242, , % 6 Houston 1,005,502 1,001, % 7 Miami 172, , % 8 Tucson 265, , % 9 Virginia Beach 216, , % 10 Boston 296, , % 11 Nashville 307, , % 12 Phoenix 805, , % 13 Mesa City 244, , % 14 Louisville 333, , % 15 Seattle 352, , % 16 New York 3,709,597 3,617, % 17 Minneapolis 208, , % 18 Portland 288, , % 19 Chicago 1,219,460 1,187, % 20 Washington, D.C. 308, , % 21 Memphis 287, , % 22 Honolulu 429, , % 23 Oklahoma City 248, , % 24 Fresno 205, , % 25 Columbus 401, , % 26 Cleveland 169, , % 27 San Diego 652, , % 28 St. Louis 144, , % 29 Detroit 302, , % 30 Baltimore 261, , % 31 Omaha 230, , % 32 San Jose 428, , % 33 Denver 307, , % 34 Colorado Springs 203, , % 35 Philadelphia 589, , % 36 Tulsa 183, , % 37 Sacramento 195, , % 38 Albuquerque 257, , % 39 Milwaukee 259, , % 40 San Francisco 438, , % 41 Long Beach 217, , % 42 Los Angeles 1,757,895 1,652, % 43 Jacksonville 395, , % 44 Oakland 179, , % 45 Wichita 184, , % 46 Atlanta 223, , % 47 Charlotte 339, , % 48 Indianapolis 402, , % 49 Kansas City 217, , % 50 Las Vegas 261, , % 7

8 Table 4 - Employment Growth in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities: % Change 1 Fort Worth 256, , % 2 Mesa City 202, , % 3 Phoenix 665, , % 4 San Antonio 519, , % 5 Miami 148, , % 6 Tucson 227, , % 7 El Paso 221, , % 8 Houston 919,669 1,001, % 9 Seattle 319, , % 10 Fresno 184, , % 11 Atlanta 194, , % 12 Virginia Beach 200, , % 13 San Diego 594, , % 14 Charlotte 299, , % 15 Albuquerque 231, , % 16 New York 3,455,188 3,617, % 17 Omaha 210, , % 18 Austin 394, , % 19 Colorado Springs 187, , % 20 Washington, D.C. 292, , % 21 Sacramento 182, , % 22 Las Vegas 235, , % 23 Honolulu 414, , % 24 Wichita 172, , % 25 Columbus 388, , % 26 Jacksonville 373, , % 27 Nashville 304, , % 28 Boston 295, , % 29 Denver 298, , % 30 Oklahoma City 246, , % 31 Portland 292, , % 32 Long Beach 213, , % 33 Los Angeles 1,725,919 1,652, % 34 Memphis 293, , % 35 Louisville 345, , % 36 Baltimore 265, , % 37 Dallas 597, , % 38 Minneapolis 219, , % 39 Philadelphia 600, , % 40 Milwaukee 267, , % 41 Chicago 1,303,436 1,187, % 42 Indianapolis 410, , % 43 St. Louis 153, , % 44 San Francisco 460, , % 45 Oakland 188, , % 46 Kansas City 225, , % 47 Cleveland 188, , % 48 Tulsa 200, , % 49 San Jose 481, , % 50 Detroit 354, , % 8

9 Table 5 - Employment Growth in the 20 Largest Frostbelt Cities % Change 1 Detroit 280, , % 2 Boston 285, , % 3 Chicago 1,160,986 1,187, % 4 Washington, D.C. 293, , % 5 Cleveland 160, , % 6 New York 3,567,790 3,617, % 7 Cincinnati 146, , % 8 Buffalo 110, , % 9 St. Louis 137, , % 10 Baltimore 248, , % 11 Minneapolis 203, , % 12 St. Paul (MN) 134, , % 13 Columbus 387, , % 14 Milwaukee 244, , % 15 Pittsburgh 141, , % 16 Indianapolis 373, , % 17 Philadelphia 561, , % 18 Kansas City 201, , % 19 Omaha 224, , % 20 Wichita 176, , % UWM Center for Economic Development 9

10 Table 6 - Employment Growth in the 20 Largest Frostbelt Cities % Change 1 Boston 296, , % 2 New York 3,709,597 3,617, % 3 Minneapolis 208, , % 4 St. Paul (MN) 138, , % 5 Chicago 1,219,460 1,187, % 6 Washington, D.C. 308, , % 7 Buffalo 115, , % 8 Columbus 401, , % 9 Cincinnati 154, , % 10 Cleveland 169, , % 11 St. Louis 144, , % 12 Pittsburgh 147, , % 13 Detroit 302, , % 14 Baltimore 261, , % 15 Omaha 230, , % 16 Philadelphia 589, , % 17 Milwaukee 259, , % 18 Wichita 184, , % 19 Indianapolis 402, , % 20 Kansas City 217, , % UWM Center for Economic Development 10

11 Table 7 - Employment Growth in the 20 Largest Frostbelt Cities % Change 1 New York 3,455,188 3,617, % 2 Omaha 210, , % 3 Washington, D.C. 292, , % 4 Wichita 172, , % 5 Columbus 388, , % 6 Boston 295, , % 7 Cincinnati 152, , % 8 Pittsburgh 149, , % 9 Baltimore 265, , % 10 Buffalo 118, , % 11 Minneapolis 219, , % 12 Philadelphia 600, , % 13 Milwaukee 267, , % 14 Chicago 1,303,436 1,187, % 15 Indianapolis 410, , % 16 St. Paul (MN) 149, , % 17 St. Louis 153, , % 18 Kansas City 225, , % 19 Cleveland 188, , % 20 Detroit 354, , % UWM Center for Economic Development 11

12 Table 9 -- Unemployment Rates in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities Omaha Honolulu Virginia Beach Oklahoma City Austin Minneapolis San Antonio Tulsa Mesa City Boston Seattle Houston Fort Worth Albuquerque Dallas Columbus Colorado Springs Charlotte Nashville Wichita Denver Tucson New York El Paso San Francisco Portland Washington, D.C Indianapolis Phoenix Louisville Chicago San Diego Baltimore Milwaukee Atlanta Kansas City Memphis Cleveland Jacksonville Philadelphia San Jose St. Louis Long Beach Los Angeles Miami Sacramento Las Vegas Fresno Oakland Detroit

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