Factors Influencing Visitor's Choices of Urban Destinations in North America

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1 Factors Influencing Visitor's Choices of Urban Destinations in North America Ontario Ministry of Tourism and Recreation May 21, 2004 Study conducted by Global Insight Inc.

2 Executive Summary A. Introduction: The purpose of this study was to quantify the factors that influence consumers choices of large urban destinations in North America. The results of the study are meant to help planners in evaluating the tourism impacts of projects under consideration. Instead of surveying consumers views on what makes them visit certain North American cities (attitudinal data), the study uses behavioural data to quantify for the first time the impact of additional attractors in a large urban centre and to define and quantify for the first time what it is meant by quality matters. The choice of behavioural data over attitudinal data was made because the former show actual behaviour rather than desired behaviour. Attitudinal data have their value but not as quantitative measures of actual behaviour. For example, during the 1999 Travel Activities and Motivation Survey respondents were asked to indicate what activities and types of trips they would most likely participate in over the next 2 years. Based on their answers we should observe a doubling of all trip-types and activities in 2002 an event that never happened. Quality was defined according to the Michelin Guide s star system. The reason that the Michelin Guide was chosen is twofold: first, this is a popular publication that consumers consult regarding places to visit and things to do while visiting a city. As such, it bore a direct relationship on what this study was trying to achieve. Secondly, it provided a consistent methodology for comparing the North American cities covered by this study. Data on total pleasure visits to 40 US cities were collected from D.K. Shifflet and the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries and to 10 Canadian cities from Statistics Canada. These cities are shown below. Canada (10) Toronto Montreal Vancouver Ottawa-Hull Calgary Edmonton Quebec Winnipeg Victoria Halifax Orlando Las Vegas Austin New York City San Diego Chicago San Antonio Atlanta Kansas City San Francisco United States (40) Los Angeles Milwaukee Seattle Tampa St. Louis Washington Portland Boston Indianapolis Columbus Houston Detroit Dallas Philadelphia New Orleans Miami Salt Lake City Baltimore Nashville Cincinnati Fort Lauderale Oklahoma City Minneapolis Cleveland Sacramento Denver Pittsburgh Charlotte Phoenix Memphis 1

3 Data on the attractors for the various cities was collected using the Michelin Guide and supplemented by Frommer's and Fodor s. Michelin s quality ratings for attractions were as follows: 3-star *** Highly recommended / Worth a journey 2-star ** Recommended / Worth a detour 1-star * Interesting / Interesting All attractors were grouped into the following categories: Arts & Culture Museums History museums Historic sites Other Visual Arts Art galleries Art-related events & festivals Environment & Built Form Physical Setting Waterfronts & beaches Other geographic features Urban Amenities Parks & green spaces Shopping areas Business districts Built Form General building architecture Specific structures of interest Entertainment Popular Entertainment Amusements & theme parks Spectator sports Casinos Participation sports opportunities Events & festivals Night clubs Cultural Entertainment Opera Theater Ballet Orchestra Accommodation & Food Accommodation Range of hotels Luxury hotel rooms Food High-end restaurants Food-related events & festivals Range of restaurants Specific examples of attractors can be found in Appendix A of the final report. An econometric model was then built using annual visitor data across the 50 North American cities. The model attempts to explain how the variation in the number of pleasure visitors from city to city can be explained by the variation in the number and quality of attractors from city to city. However, since there are other variables that also influence the number of visitors a city receives, such as ease of getting there, the model incorporated the following variables: Overall city score (from Michelin travel guide); Population by state or province; Rooms and property count; Public transportation score (from Places Rated Almanac, which provides a public transportation score for 354 North American metro areas. The score is based on three weighted factors: commute time (30%), connectivity (60%), and centrality (10%); Presence of international airport; 2

4 Presence of large hub airport; Population density; Proximity to major metro areas (New York City for the east and Santa Barbara for the west); City-by-city marketing budgets (for a sample of 33 cities). From all the population-related factors mentioned above, the population density appeared to have the better explanatory power. Had these factors not been incorporated into the model, then the attractors would have explained too much of the variation in pleasure visits. B. Results: The study found strong, statistically significant, correlations between the following attractors and total pleasure visits (only the overall and specific categories that showed strong correlations are presented below): 3-star Visual Arts o 3-star Art Galleries 3-star Environment and Built Form o 3-star Urban Amenities 3-star Shopping Areas 3-star Business Districts o 3-star Built Form 3-star General Building Architecture 3-star Specific Structures of Interest 3-star Entertainment o 3-star Popular Entertainment 3-star Amusement and Theme Parks Casinos The following 2-star attractors were also found to have strong, statistically significant, correlations with pleasure visits to those 50 cities: 2-star Environment and Built Form 2-star Business Districts o 2-star Built Form 2-star General Building Architecture 2-star Specific Structures of Interest 2-star Entertainment o 2-star Popular Entertainment o 2-star Cultural Entertainment 2-star Food o 2-star High-End Restaurants 3

5 Although certain attractors, such as theatres and opera, did not show a strong correlation to total visitation, this does not mean that they do not serve certain niche tourism markets. It only means that in the context of the total mass market of a large urban centre, they are not among the main contributors to that total market. For example, the Canadian Opera Company s 43 annual performances at the Hummingbird Centre in Toronto, which accommodates 3,167 opera fans, can only bring in a total of 136,200 people during the year. If a third of these opera fans were tourists, then that will only account for less than one percentage point (0.6%) of Toronto s total pleasure visitors (7.2 million in 2001). The table below shows the impact on average on pleasure visitors of adding one more attractor. These impacts would vary across cities depending on the number of attractors already present in the various cities. For example, adding one more attractor in a city that already has four of that type constitutes a 25% increase, while in a city that has only one it constitutes a 100% increase. Attractor /Factor Average Impact on Pleasure Visitors 3-star Popular Entertainment + 520,000 to 600,000 3-star Shopping Area + 610,000 to 1,150,000 3-star Specific Structure + 1,020,000 to 2,870,000 3-star Amusement Park + 4,520,000 to 7,090,000 Casino + 390,000 to 430,000 Hotel Room + 79 to 104 Hotel Property + 5,000 1% Improvement in Public Transport System + 70,000 $1 Million Increase in Marketing Budget + 100,000 The table below depicts the elasticities for Toronto and Ottawa. Elasticity is a number that shows the percentage change in pleasure visitors for a given percentage change in the attractors base. For example, the table shows that for a 10% increase in the 3-star Amusement Parks in Toronto, pleasure visitors are expected to increase by a percent that lies somewhere between 3.3% and 5.2% (10%*0.52= 5.2%). Or, using the average number of pleasure visitors to Toronto over the period 1996 to 2002 (6.8 million), a 10% increase in the city s 3- star Amusement Parks is expected to increase its pleasure visitors by a number that lies between 224,400 and 353,600. Elasticities Type of Attraction Toronto Ottawa 3-star Amusement Park star Shopping Area star Specific Structure Casino star Popular Entertainment star Shopping Area star Popular Entertainment

6 The elasticities for Ottawa are larger than those of Toronto because Toronto has a much larger visitation base than Ottawa. For example, in 2001, Toronto received 7.2 million pleasure visitors while Ottawa received 2.7 million. As such, adding more attractions to Ottawa would have, relative to their respective visitor count, a larger impact there than it would have in Toronto. However, in absolute numbers, the impact in the two cities will be the same as the table below shows. Since the attractors take on only discrete values, that is one museum, one amusement park rather than 10% of a museum or amusement park, the table below shows the impacts on pleasure visitors to Toronto and Ottawa if one unit of the attractor was added to their product mix. Please note that these numbers include overnight as well as day- trippers: Additional Pleasure Visitors Per Year Type of Attraction to be developed Toronto Ottawa A 3-star Amusement Park (e.g., Seaworld Adventure Park, Universal Studios in million million Orlando) A 3-star Shopping Area (e.g., Macy s World, Chinatown NYC) million million A 3-star Specific Structure (e.g., Statue of Liberty, CN Tower) million million A Casino million million A 1-star Popular Entertainment (e.g., Grant Park, Yankee Stadium) 0.6 million 0.6 million A 1-star Shopping Area (North Michigan Avenue - the Champs Elysees ) in Chicago 1.15 million 1.15 million A 2-star Popular Entertainment (e.g., Rose Parade in LA, SeaWorld in San Antonio) 0.52 million 0.52 million The elasticities and visitor impacts associated with 1-star Shopping Areas are larger than those associated with 3-star Shopping Areas because 1-star Shopping Areas tend to be larger areas that serve much larger numbers of visitors. C. Study s Recommendations: The results of the study suggest that Toronto and Ottawa would both gain the largest number of additional visitors by concentrating their future attractions portfolio development on the following types of quality attractions: Three-star rated amusement parks. Three-star and one-star shopping areas. Three-star-specific structures (i.e. CN Tower or Sky Dome). They would also benefit from the construction of one- and two-star-rated attractions from a popular entertainment category (amusement and theme parks, and from casinos). 5

7 Furthermore, this strategy should also stress the following aspects: As mentioned earlier, on average, $1 million increase in a city s marketing budget results in an increase in the number of the city s pleasure visitors of 100,000. The literature review also found that information available to the traveller prior to departure, as well as the presentation of this information, is important in determining the destination for many travellers. As such, Toronto and Ottawa could receive substantial returns from increasing their marketing budgets. The high U.S. population density is a plus and provides an argument for increasing promotional efforts in U.S. markets and adopting schemes to encourage U.S. visitors to travel north. Joint air travel/hotel stay packages for U.S. visitors that feature incentives, such as reduced attraction admission fees or food and beverage vouchers, could be utilized in this regard. New attractions need to be added with careful consideration to the supporting tourist infrastructure needs, such as public transportation and hotels rooms, to maximize tourists overall experience with the new attraction. Complementarity or interaction of multiple sites at the destination is crucial. Both cities should be careful to maintain a balance among a variety of attraction types when adding new attractions. D. Next Steps: This study used total pleasure visits as the variable to be explained by the attractors. A further study might involve the removal of the same day pleasure visitors and the examination of the impact that the attractors have on pleasure visitors who stay one or more nights. Since these visitors spend significantly more than same day visitors, understanding what attracts them to urban centres might be worth pursuing further. 6

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