The Nile problem IWRDM Master course

Transcription

1 The Nile Problem Manfred Ostrowski 1/45

2 The next war among countries will not be for oil or territorial borders, but only for the problem of water Dr. Boutros Boutros Ghali 2/45

3 Photo Raid Planète Poussière/Gamma, Paris: The Blue Nile waterfalls in Ethiopia. Text: \Nile\Averting conflict in the Nile basin UNESCO.htm The conflict potential: There is apart from any differences caused by climate change not a drop more water in the Nile River basin today than there was when Moses was found in the bulrushes. And there will not be a drop more in 25 years time, when the population living along the banks of the world s longest river system is expected to have doubled to more than 300 million people. 3/45

4 Nile River Basin: Statistics & background information Area : 3.3 million km ² more than 81,500 km² are lakes and 70,000 km² are swamps. Length: From White Nile Source to Mouth 6695km. Countries: There are ten riparian countries: Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. Population: The present 280 million is expected to grow to 591 million by 2025 at an average rate of %, with an average population density of 95/km2. Poverty indicators: GINI Index (> 50%); Half the population is below the international poverty line at $1 a day Total rainfall and flow : The mean annual rainfall over the entire basin is about 2,000 billion m3. The average annual flow at Aswan is about 84 billion m3. Major Dams: The major dams on the Nile are Roseires Dam, Sennar Dam, Aswan High Dam, and Owen Falls Dam. Irrigated agriculture: In Egypt and Sudan, irrigated agriculture is the dominating sector. Over 5.5 million ha are under irrigation, with plans to expand an area of over 4.9 million ha. The present irrigation in the upper White Nile riparian areas is very small and there are plans for a future expansion over an area of 387,000 ha in Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya. In Ethiopia, the potential identified in the Blue Nile basin includes 100,000 ha of perennial irrigation and 165,000 ha of small-scale seasonal irrigation. The other riparian countries have no potential for irrigation in the basin and depend almost completely on rain-fed agriculture. Rain-fed agriculture: Major food production in the areas with high rainfall and in the semiarid savannah belt. 4/45

5 rric/newgeog/africa/nile.htm 5/45

6 Travels&pagename=2 ujagali.html Owen Falls Dam outflow from lake Victoria 6/45

7 Satellite iamage of the origin of the Blue Nile (Abay) Lake Tana 7/45

8 Mark Rutter s photo gallery 8/45

9 Mark Rutter s photo gallery 9/45

10 Serena Bowles 10/45

11 Lake Tana is fed by many small streams from surrounding highlands > 5500 m. Without this lake with an area of 3000 km2 enourmous floods would be created. Ethiopia has built a regulating weir (1,5 m high = 3-4 Milliarden m3) and a medium hydropower station (remember non consumptive use). Irrigation systems are planned but not yet installed (consumptive use). 11/45

12 Nile falls without hydropower plant 12/45

13 Nile falls with weir and hydropower plant 13/45

14 Quelle BBC Blue Nile Gorge For a million years the Blue Nile has been carving this huge gash through the Ethiopian Highlands. Well over 1,000m deep, nearly 20km wide and over 600km long, this is Africa's own Grand Canyon. From all over the highlands, huge rivers pour into the Blue Nile Gorge. By the time it leaves Ethiopia the Blue Nile will be 50 times the size it was in the dry season. 14/45

15 (Serena Bowles) 15/45

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18 /de/afrique/assouan/assouan.html# 18/45

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20 Main Issues Nile waters come from rainfall on the Ethiopian highlands (75%) and the catchment areas of the equatorial lakes. The northern part has virtually no rainfall in the summer, while the southern area has heavy rains during the summer months. During the October-May season, both regions are relatively dry due to the presence of the northeast trade winds. The main problem that all countries of the Nile basin face is to ensure the food security of their growing populations. Except for Egypt and Uganda, all the other Nile basin countries had lower per capita food and agricultural production indexes compared to In Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Ethiopia, the food-security situation deteriorated with an average of 17 percent. Access to high-quality water is likely to lead to a conflict in a situation where the availability of freshwater per capita is decreasing rapidly. 20/45

21 partly Ethiopia ~completely partly (scheint ohne Quelle an anderer Stelle entnommen(hurst?)) 21/45

22 Pointing at a map of the Ethiopian highlands, from which 85 percent of the water flowing to Egypt comes via the Blue Nile, Jan Luijendijk, a Dutch water engineer and expert on knowledge systems at the UNESCO_IHE Institute for Water Education at Delft (Netherlands), says, if Ethiopia decided to build a dam on one of these river branches, then that would mean war with Egypt immediately. There is no other choice for Egypt. He says an attempt by any of the nine countries in the Nile basin to use water in a way that would reduce the flow into Egypt could precipitate war. In the 1950s, Egypt took advantage of its status as the regional military and political power to reinforce a colonial era agreement that gvave it almost complete control of the rivers snaking 6,700 kilometres south into the heart of Africa and into the highlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea. In 1959, Egypt signed a complex agreement with the military rulers of newly independent Sudan for the full utilisation of the Nile waters and it meant full! 22/45

23 Ethiopia insists that it has every right to develop its natural resources. It has bitterly reproached Egypt for building the Aswan dam without even consulting it, as well as for appropriating the lion s share of the river resources. An Ethiopian policy paper in 1997 stated, the stark inequality prevailing in the Nile basin cannot remain. The one thing holding back Ethiopia from developing irrigated agriculture on a large scale is the threat of military action, which Egypt would regard as an act of self-defence. When Ethiopia brought in Israeli water engineers in 1989 to survey its water resources, it received a stern warning from Cairo. Ethiopia s claim to use the water arising in its territory has historical and international precedents. During the dispute over water that sprang up between the United States and Mexico at the end of the 19th century, U.S. Attorney General Judson Harmon stated that his country had absolute sovereignty over that part of the Rio Grande river that flowed within its territory and had no obligation to share it. 23/45

24 Background In the early 1900's, a relative shortage of cotton on the world market put pressure on Egypt and the Sudan, then under a British-Egyptian condominium, to turn to this summer crop, requiring perennial irrigation over the traditional flood-fed methods. The need for summer water and flood control drove an intensive period of water development along the Nile, with proponents of Egyptian and Sudanese interests occasionally clashing within the British foreign office over whether the emphasis for development ought to be further up-stream or down. With the end of World War I, it became clear that any regional development plans for the Nile Basin would have to be preceded by some sort of formal agreement on water allocations. In 1920, the Nile Projects Commission was formed, with representatives from India, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The Commission estimated that, of the river's average flow of 84 BCM/yr., Egyptian needs were estimated at 58 BCM/yr. Sudan, it was thought, would be able to meet irrigation needs from the Blue Nile alone. The Nile flow fluctuates greatly, with a standard deviation of about 25%. In recognition of this fact, an appendix was added which suggested that any gain or short-fall from the average be divided evenly between Egypt and Sudan. The Commission's findings were not acted upon. Quelle: 24/45

25 The same year saw publication of the most extensive scheme for comprehensive water development along the Nile, now known as the Century Storage Scheme. The plan, put forth by the British, included: a storage facility on the Uganda-Sudan border a dam at Sennar to irrigate the Gezira region south of Khartoum, and, a dam on the White Nile to hold summer flood water for Egypt. The plan worried some Egyptians, and was criticized by nationalists, because all the major control structures would have been beyond Egyptian territory and authority. Some Egyptians saw the plan as a British means of controlling Egypt in the event of Egyptian independence. Negotiations followed between Egypt and Sudan: The first round of negotiations between Egypt and Sudan took place between September and December 1954, even as Sudan was preparing for its independence, scheduled for The positions of the two sides can be summarized as follows: Quelle: 25/45

26 Egyptian Position Existing needs should take priority. These were described as being 51 BCM for Egypt and four BCM for Sudan, out of an average flow of 80 BCM as measured at Aswan. Any remainder from development projects should be divided as a percentage of each country's population after subtracting 10 BCM for evaporation losses. The respective population and growth rates led to an Egyptian formula for 22/30 of the remainder, or 11 BCM for Egypt, and 8/30, or four BCM for Sudan. There should be one large storage facility, a high dam at Aswan. Total allocations would therefore be 62 BCM for Egypt and 8 BCM for Sudan. Sudanese Position Sudan insisted on using the standard value of 84 BCM for average Nile discharge, and insisted that Egypt's acquired rights were for 48 BCM, not 51 BCM that Egypt claimed. Sudan also suggested that their population was actually 50% larger than Egypt had estimated, and that resulting population-based allocations should be adjusted accordingly, giving Sudan at least one third of any additional water. Storage facilities should be smaller and upstream, as envisioned in the Century Storage Scheme. Consequently, if Egypt insisted on one large project, with comparatively high evaporation losses, these losses should be deducted from Egypt's share. Total allocations, therefore, should be approximately 59 BCM (69 BCM less evaporation) for Egypt and 15 BCM for Sudan. Quelle: 26/45

27 Timeline Nile Projects Commission formed, offers allocation scheme for Nile riparians. Findings were not acted upon. Century Storage Scheme put forward, emphasizing upstream, relatively small-scale projects. Plan is criticized by Egypt New water commission is named. 7 May Sep-Dec Nov 1959 Commission study leads to Nile Waters Agreement between Egypt and Sudan. Aswan High Dam proposed by Egypt. Promise of additional water necessitates new agreement. First round of negotiations between Egypt and Sudan. Negotiations end inconclusively. Sudan gains independence. Egypt is more conciliatory with government after 1958 coup. Agreement for the Full Utilization of the Nile Waters (Nile Waters Treaty) signed between Egypt and Sudan. 27/45

28 Lessons learned Shifting political boundaries can turn intra-national disputes into international conflicts, exacerbating tensions over existing issues. Similar to the Indus, the disappearance of British colonialism turned national issues international, making agreement more difficult. Downstream riparians are not necessarily at a political disadvantage to their upstream neighbors. While in many cases relative riparian positions results in comparable power relationships, with upper riparians having greater hydropolitical maneuverability(turkey on Syria), Egypt's geopolitical strength was able to forestall upstream attempts to sway its position. The individuals or governments involved can make a difference in the pace of the negotiations. Negotiations made little progress between 1954 and 1958, even given Sudan's independence in It was only after pro-egyptian General Ibrahim Abboud took power in a coup in 1958 did negotiations move towards resolution, finally gaining for Sudan water allocations greater than those of their initial bargaining point. 28/45

29 Even Egypt is starting to realize the instability of a situation in which five of the Nile river nations count among the poorest in the world, and in which a large nation subject to repeated droughts is expected to stand by, while the Egyptians and the Sudanese undertake massive irrigation. Egypt is making a big effort to optimise the use of its limited resources by improving the efficiency of irrigation, changing crop patterns, lining irrigation canals and reusing drainage water. Despite all these measures, it still imports about seven million tons of wheat a year. Intermittendly the British and later Egypt wanted to build a canal to cross the Sudd to reduce Evapotranspiration; in the meanwhile this has been realised as costly ecologic nonsense. 29/45

30 Ethiopian Anger (Quelle: BBC NEWS Africa Nile restrictions anger Ethiopia.htm) Egypt's population has more than doubled since the 1960s. But Ethiopia is also facing similar demographic pressures. And Ethiopia's Prime Minister Meles Zenawi says the current division of water use along the river is anything but fair. Irrigation projects have enabled Egypt to turn desert areas into productive land"while Egypt is taking the Nile water to transform the Sahara Desert into something green, we in Ethiopia - who are the source of 85% of that water - are denied the possibility of using it to feed ourselves. And we are being forced to beg for food every year," he says. Mr Meles says he is becoming increasingly angry at Egypt's long running objections to requests from other Nile basin nations to use the river's waters for major irrigation projects. And he warns that his government, along with those of Kenya, Uganda Tanzania - who share the White Nile with Egypt - will no longer be intimidated by past threats, principally by the late President Anwar Sadat, to use force to maintain its grip on the Nile. 30/45

31 The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) In 1999 six nations of the Great Lakes Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda as well as Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, formed the Nile Basin Initiative. Eritrea joined later. The aim : to resolve peacefully some of the big questions over shared water resources facing these countries. The most compelling issues: Would Egypt be willing to accept a lesser flow of the Nile in favour of economic projects upstream? And would Ethiopia be allowed to use part of the resources of the Blue Nile to develop its own agriculture? Through this Initiative, the Nile nations have embarked on a process that may lead to a revision of the inequitable 1959 agreement that gives nearly all the waters of the Nile to Egypt and, to a lesser extent, to Sudan. 31/45

32 The 10 countries within the Nile River basin will benefit from better access to information on the availability, use and development potential of the Nile resources they share under a new project to improve water management in the region, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) announced this week. The Nile waters bear tremendous potential as a lever for social and economic development, but at the moment, the inability to jointly plan water development, reach agreement on equitable sharing of benefits and attract investment has delayed the use of this resource for the benefit of the people living in the Nile basin region, FAO s Chief of Water Resources, Development and Management Service Pasquale Steduto said... The $5 million project, funded by the Government of Italy and with FAO assistance, will support basin-wide initiatives to integrate technical data with demographic, socio-economic and environmental information to examine how specific policies and projected water use patterns will affect water resources. It will develop surveys and case studies on the links between water management practices and rural livelihoods and food insecurity. Within this context, a basin-wide survey will be conducted to assess current and potential water use and water productivity in rain-fed and irrigated agriculture. A further case study concerns the analysis and improvement of water productivity through crop management. The project will be carried out under the umbrella of the Nile Basin Initiative, a regional partnership launched by Nile riparian states in 1999 to facilitate the common pursuit of sustainable development and management of the Nile basin, an area of some 3.1 million square kilometres, around 10 per cent of the African continent. Quelle: Europaworld Nile River Basin Countries To Benefit From New Water Management Plan.htm 32/45