Realistic Assessment of SADC Energy Demand and Supply Up to By Prof M Elmissiry ENERGY SECTOR NEPAD, Midrand South Africa

Transcription

1 Realistic Assessment of SADC Energy Demand and Supply Up to 2015 By Prof M Elmissiry ENERGY SECTOR NEPAD, Midrand South Africa

2 PRESENTATION OUTLINES 1-SAPP UTILITIES CURRENT SUPPLY /DEMAND SITUATION 2-PROJECTED DEMAND FOR SAPP PLANNED GENERATION PROJECTS FOR SAPP PLANNED TRANSMISSION PROJECTS FOR COMMENTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

3 SADC Demand and Supply, as of November 2009 (Source SAPP) ANGOLA (ENE) Installed Capacity: Available Capacity: 1187MW 930MW Peak Demand: 668MW Capacity Required: 736MW (10.2% Reserve) Surplus of : 194MW

4 BOTSWANA (BPC) Installed Capacity: 132MW Available Capacity: 90MW Peak Demand: 503MW Capacity Required: 554MW (10.2% Reserve) Shortfall : 464MW

5 DRC (SNEL) Installed Capacity: 2442MW Available Capacity: 1170MW Peak Demand: 1028MW Capacity Required: 1133MW (10.2% Reserve) Surplus of : 37MW

6 LESOTHO (LEC) Installed Capacity: 72MW Available Capacity: 70MW Peak Demand: 108MW Capacity Required: 119MW (10.2% Reserve) Shortfall : 49MW

7 MALAWI (ESCOM) Installed Capacity: 287MW Available Capacity: 267MW Peak Demand: 260MW Capacity Required: 287MW (10.2% Reserve) Shortfall : 20MW

8 MOZAMBIQUE Installed Capacity: 233MW 2075MW Available Capacity: 174MW 2075MW Peak Demand: 416MW Capacity Required: 458MW (10.2% Reserve) Surplus of : 1791MW EDM (MW) HCBC (MW)

9 NAMIBIA (NAMPOWER) Installed Capacity: Available Capacity: 393MW 360MW Peak Demand: 430MW Capacity Required: 474MW Shortfall : 114MW

10 SOUTH AFRICA (ESKOM) Installed Capacity: Available Capacity: 44170MW 40483MW Peak Demand: 35850MW Capacity Required: 39507MW (10.2% Reserve) Surplus of : 976MW

11 SWAZILAND (SEC) Installed Capacity: 70.6MW Available Capacity: 70MW Peak Demand: 200MW Capacity Required: 220MW (10.2% Reserve) Shortfall : 150MW

12 TANZANIA (TANESCO) Installed Capacity: 1008MW Available Capacity: 680MW Peak Demand: 700MW Capacity Required: 771MW (10.2% Reserve) Shortfall : 91MW

13 ZAMBIA (ZESCO) Installed Capacity: 1812MW Available Capacity: 1200MW Peak Demand: 1604MW Capacity Required: 1768MW (10.2% Reserve) Shortfall : 580MW

14 ZIMBABWE (ZESA) Installed Capacity: Available Capacity: 2045MW 1080MW Peak Demand: 1714MW Capacity Required: 1889MW Shortfall : 809MW

15 General Comments Only four countries are in surplus, namely Angola, DRC, Mozambique and South Africa. The remaining eight countries are in electricity deficit. The total available capacity of the twelve SAPP utilities is 48649MW, more than the required capacity of 47916MW by 733MW

16 If only the interconnected SAPP utilities are considered, the excess is reduced to 650MW. There is 7278MW installed but not available to the SAPP (rehabilitation, de-mothballing, maintenance.)

17 Demand Growth ( ) Assume Average Growth Rate of 4% for the 12 SAPP Countries. The required capacity in MW is shown in Table 1 below: Year Required Capacity

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19 The average yearly growth in demand is about 2000MW. If additional yearly generation of 2000MW is secured, the present surplus is assured.

20 SAPP Generation Plan Rehabilitation Projects Short Terms Projects Table 2 (Source SAPP) No Country REHABILATION AND NEW PROJECTS TOTAL 1 Angola Botswana DRC Lesotho Malawi Mozambique Namibia South Africa Swaziland Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe TOTAL

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22 Angola Project Capacity (MW) Expected date Cambamba II (hydro) 260MW 2012

23 Botswana Project (i) Morupula B Expansion (Phase 1) (Expansion of existing coal fired plant) (ii) Mamabula (New, Coal Mine & Station) Capacity (MW) 600MW (4x150 units) Expected Date MW 2015

24 DRC Project Capacity (MW) Expected Date (i) Inga 2 Rehab 162MW MW 2012 Lesotho Project Capacity (MW) Expected Date Muela phase2 110MW 2013

25 Malawi Project Kaphichira Phase 2 (New hydro) Fufu (New hydro plant) Capacity (MW) Expected Date 64MW MW 2015

26 Mozambique Project Capacity (MW) Expected Date Temani GasPh Mphanda Nkuwa Moatize (Coal) Ph.I 1000 Ph.II HCB North Bank Benga (Coal) 500 to ramp up to

27 Namibia Project Capacity (MW) Expected Date Ruacana (hydro, extension) Walvis Bay,Coal Kudu (CCGT) Baynes (hydro, lower Kunene river)

28 South Africa Project Grootvlei (Rehab) Capacity (MW) Expected Date Komati (Rehab) Arnot (upgrade) Medupi (Coal) Kusile (Coal) OCGT Tibatse Sere

29 Swaziland Project Capacity (MW) Expected Date Ngwempisi/lower Magudduza (hydro) 140MW 2014

30 Tanzania Project Capacity (MW) Expected Date Kinyeredzi (Gas) 2 x 100MW 2011 Ruhudji (hydro) 440MW 2014

31 Zambia Project Kariba North Bank (extension hydro) Itezhi-Tezhi (hydro) Kafu Gorge Lower (hydro) Capacity (MW) Expected Date 2 x

32 Zimbabwe Project Kariba South Extension (hydro) Hwange Expansion (Coal) Capacity (MW) Expected Date 2 x x Gokwe North

33 SAPP Transmission plan: Connectors for non-connected members Transmission projects for congestion relief and reinforcement Transmission projects for evacuation of new generation from power sources to load centres

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35 No Project Name Description 1 ZIZABONA Interconnector, Phase 1, 330kV Zimbabwe, Zambia Phase 2, Botswana, Namibia Transfer Capacity 200MW to 600MW Expected Date Status Awaiting Financial closure 2 Mozambique Backbone Transmission Project 400kV AC & 800 kv HVDC transmission lines from North to South 2015 Feasibility studies commenced

36 No Project Name Description 3 Mozambique Malawi 220kV Interconnector (connect Malawi to SAPP via Mozambique) Expected Date Status 2012 Most approval received EDM, Mozambique awaiting ESCOM, Malawi. 4 DRC Zambia 220kV Interconnector 2010 Construction Completed on DRC side. Tendering stage on Zambian side

37 No Project Name Description Expected Date Status 5 DRC-Zambia 330 Interconnector 2011 On going on the Zambian side 6 Zambia, Tanzania Kenya 330kV (Joining SAPP, EAPP) 2013 Work expected to start next year

38 Concluding Remarks SAPP plan for additional generation capacity by 2015 (31664MW) exceeds the expected growth in demand (12,000MW 4% growth) 15,000MW 5% growth 18,000MW 6% growth Rehabilitation & Demothballing of plants alone meets the expected growth for the coming three years (7278MW installed but not available)

39 High priority for meeting the demand should be given to rehabilitation, de-mothballing and expansion of generation plants (quicker, cheaper) Though on SAPP level, planned additional capacity meets growth in demand.but on individual country levels, some countries still have load shedding for years to come.

40 Main Challenges Financial closer in time Cost recovery tariff versus investment Conclusion of Power Purchase Agreement PPA,(tariff issues, standardization of PPA terms)

41 National versus regional interest Lack of technical capacity and packaging of bankable projects Project acceleration team for interconnector Compatible & harmonized regulatory environment

42 THANK YOU