Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility:

Transcription

1 Inside the Travel Industry White Paper, July 2017 FOR BUSINESS Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market This is Yapta s fourth-annual white paper about corporate travel pricing trends. Yapta s IQ Technology dynamically monitors ticketed airfares and booked hotel rooms, sending instant alerts to travel managers and travel management companies (TMCs) when prices drop on identical itineraries and comparable rooms. Alerts are sent whenever savings are available after accounting for any change fees and/or TMC/agent rebooking fees. All savings alerts meet base-level configurable thresholds set by the corporations using FareIQ and RoomIQ. Price tracking for the entire trip begins at the time of airline ticketing and hotel booking, continuing until 24 hours before departure and/or check-in. This study was sourced from corporate airfare and hotel room prices tracked by FareIQ and RoomIQ for the previous 12-month period ending April 30, 2017, and represents over 5 million itineraries. The airfare and hotel price-drop alert data used in this analysis reflects over 3.7 billion in travel expenditures by large and mid-sized corporations, including both domestic and international travel, purchased in the United States. The analysis is based on savings alert activity, which provides a corollary to airfare and hotel pricing volatility, as alerts are sent only when prices drop. To date, Yapta s patentpending technology has enabled corporations to save over $80 million on airfare and hotel bookings.

2 Contents Overview of 2016 Airfare and Hotel Rates 3 FareIQ Airfare Insights 4 Volatility by O&D Domestic 4 Volatility by O&D International 5 Volatility by Airline Top 10 5 Volatility by Month 5 Volatility by Days-to-Departure 6 Most Volatile City Pairs American Air. Top 10 9 Delta Airlines Top 10 9 United Airlines Top Negotiated vs. Public Fares 11 RoomIQ Hotel Insights 12 Volatility by City Top Volatility by Brand Top Volatility by Month 13 Hotel Rates Savings Amenities 14 Room Type 15 Negotiated vs. Public Rates 16 Advance Booking Volatility 17 Hotel Rate Volatility 30 Days Out 18 Current Events 19, 20 Conclusion/About Yapta 21

3 3 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market OVERVIEW OF 2016 AIRFARE AND HOTEL RATES The core fundamentals of corporate travel are both consistently strong yet fluid and dynamic. Airlines and hotels continue to drive aggressive yield and revenue management practices, searching for new ways to extract more revenue from travelers. Simple price increases, while compelling and certain to occur, are no longer enough in the eyes of suppliers to ensure profitability. Airlines charge fees for checked baggage, carry-ons, preferred seating, early boarding, inflight entertainment, inflight meals the list goes on and on. Carriers have embraced IATA s NDC (New Distribution Capability) in an effort to better market these unbundled services. As a result, airlines have experienced profitability not seen in decades, and are doing a much better job of curtailing the urge to increase capacity growth, thereby ensuring bottom line improvements. All this complexity makes it difficult for travelers and travel managers to fully determine impacts to their own budgets as well as insight and accountability into partner carrier agreement performance. Also similar to their airline counterparts, hotels have embraced more assertive revenue management tactics. Within the past couple of years, hotels have implemented and in some cases modified or retracted various programs meant to drive greater revenue and profitability. Examples include cancelation fees, non-changeable reservations, and loyalty member only rates. Hotels are continuing to maximize ancillary fees by testing various terms and price points for amenities such as Wi-Fi, minibar, and room service. Corporations, in some cases, have experienced an inability to confirm last room availability (LRA) for their preferred suppliers or properties. Data in this study revealed that hoteliers are offering public rates that are lower than negotiated rates on a statistically significant number of occasions. If these fluctuating public rates are beating negotiated rates, the question should be asked Is it worth it to spend months in the RFP process with hotel partners when rate monitoring finds lower spot rates? Yapta s Intelligent Price Tracking is remarkable: DDYapta s IQ Technology customers are saving an average of $369 per trip DDThere are savings opportunities available on 12% of all itineraries tracked DDYapta provides real-time data through transparent reporting DDIncreases traveler compliance DDGuaranteed bottom-line savings

4 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market 4 AIRFARE INSIGHTS Airfare Volatility Index by Origin and Destination Domestic The white paper analysis evaluated the top 10 city pairs for airfare volatility by origin and destination domestically within the United States. For these city pairs, price drop alerts were reviewed to determine relative volatility. As shown in Figure 1, the results are based on an index (which is the line at 10 - indicating that the data is indexed against the broader population to reveal the magnitude of the price volatility) with the most volatile city pairs above the index, those close to the line revealing a more neutral volatility, and those below the line exhibiting relatively stable pricing volatility. The most DSM SEA SAN HNL SFO JFK ICT ONT MSP LAS TPA GSP SFO EWR BRO IAD PDX ALB BUF SAT Figure 1: Airfare Volatility Index by O&D Domestic MSP PVG SFO PEK DFW TPE BNA HKG SFO ICN DEN NRT SFO BLR EWR LHR GRR MUC ELP CDG Figure 2: Airfare Volatility Index by O&D International

5 5 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market volatile pair is Des Moines International Airport (DSM) to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA), followed by San Diego International Airport (SAN) to Daniel K. Inouye International Airport in Honolulu (HNL). Each of the top 10 city pairs statistically exhibit greater volatility than the norm. Airfare Volatility by Origin and Destination - International The analysis also assessed the top 10 city pairs exhibiting the most volatile international flights. Again indexed against the broader population of data, the most volatile city pair is Minneapolis-Saint Paul International Airport (MSP) to Shanghai Pudong International Airport (PVG). Only Gerald R. Ford International Airport (GRR) in Michigan to Munich Airport (MUC) as well as El Paso International Airport (ELP) to Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG) in France showed relatively weaker pricing volatility. The data reveals interesting trends and differences from prior years. San Francisco, while dominating as a most volatile origin airport for international flights last year, appears in only three of the top ten most volatile city pairs this year. There is also a substantial concentration of price fluctuations for flights into Asia. South Korea, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Taipei all make the list, all recurring from last year, with the new entrant, Beijing, this year. Airfare Volatility by Airline This analysis evaluated the top 10 airlines that most frequently exhibited price drops in Yapta s data (amongst those that had at least 5,000 itineraries in the data set). For those airlines, the price-drop alerts were reviewed to determine relative volatility. Figure 3 serves as an index for this volatility. This year s data reveals a new #1 on the list. Virgin Atlantic Airlines is the most volatile airline, followed by Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific Airlines. Making a return to the list after a one-year hiatus is Lufthansa, coming in at #10 and still significantly more volatile than the general population. Another interesting note is that for the second straight year, neither British Airways nor American Airlines made the top 10. This after landing in the top 3 the first two years of our study. Airfare Volatility by Month of the Year A new addition to the airfare volatility section, the data in Figure 4 shows which months are most and least volatile Virgin Atlantic Singapore Airlines Cathay Pacific All Nippon Qatar Airways KLM Copa Airlines Air France Eva Airways Lufthansa Figure 3: Airfare Volatility Index by Airline

6 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market January February March April May June July August September October November December Figure 4: Airfare Volatility Index by Month for airfare pricing (ie, when do airlines effectively leverage yield management). This data is also helpful for knowing when the most savings are found, or even which month is best for buying an airline ticket. The month of May gives buyers the best opportunity to see pricing volatility, followed by June. This differs from historical airfare pricing volatility when the winter months of November and December exhibited the most price fluctuations. It is interesting to note that the month of May is also the most volatile pricing month for hotel rates (noted later in the White Paper), leading to the conclusion that May is the most volatile time to book corporate travel. Airfare Volatility by Days-to-Departure In corporate travel, the question is always asked, When is the best time to buy an airline ticket? Yapta s data set was analyzed to determine advance purchase effects on the volatility of the fare. The analysis looked at original ticket price, the lower ticket price and resulting savings for those tickets that were purchased more than 21 days in advance, greater than 14 days, one week to 14 days, and less than one week prior to departure. What the data revealed is not necessarily intuitive - on average, ticket prices drop the closer to the departure date. It s important < 7 days 7 14 days days > 21 days Average Original Ticket $1,118 $1,226 $1,323 $1,810 Average Lower Identified Ticket $936 $1,040 $1,124 $1,532 Average Net Savings $182 $186 $199 $278 Percent Savings 16% 15% 15% 15% Percent of Total Alerts 28% 27% 16% 29% Figure 5: Airfare Volatility by Days-to-Departure

7 7 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market to note that tickets purchased more than 21 days in advance of departure typically include a significantly higher portion of refundable tickets, which are generally higher priced. Taking that into consideration, the data shows that the closer in ticket prices are still relatively high on average, and in all cases there are significant savings opportunities. Savings per ticket can be seen going from just under $300 on advance purchase to nearly $200 within seven days of departure. Two more data points analyzed this year include the percent of savings and the percent of total alerts by days prior to departure. One note of interest involves percent savings off the original ticket price. Regardless of when the ticket is purchased, the savings on average across the entire data set is relatively stable at 15%-16%. This means that as airlines reduce prices, they are doing so in a reasonably consistent manner from a percent-off standpoint. Another data point involves the frequency of price drops days before departure, shown by the Percent of Total Alerts row. The data reveals that 29% of airlines price drops occur 21 days or more in advance, dropping to 16% in the timeframe days in advance, followed by an increase to 27% eight-14 days prior to departure, then returning to 29% within one week of departure. Yapta s FareIQ: DDSaves an average of $260 per trip DDSaves up to 3.5% of total air spend DDNo traveler disruption D D Reduces out-of-program bookings This is consistent with the airlines need to fill the plane well in advance of the flight, gaining confidence in the capacity forecast days prior thereby not offering as many savings opportunities, beginning to show concern 8-14 days in advance, and then offering more price reductions closer in as capacity needs drive yield management practices. Figure 6 shows the difference in identified savings based on the number of days until departure. $250 $200 $150 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% $100 $50 $0 Avg. Savings per Ticket % of Alerts Days from Alert to Departure 3% 2% 1% Figure 6: Fare Drop Output

8 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market 8 This year s data set included a new analysis of the entire 30-day window from ticketing until the departure date. Included is Figure 6, the orange line represents the amount of savings alerted, while the gray line reveals the percentage of the airlines overall alerts sent during the 30-day departure window. The alerts line reveals an increase in price changes at 21 days prior to departure, another uptick at 14 days, and another increase at 7 days. This conforms with airlines historical yield management practices of the 21-day, 14-day, and 7-day advance purchase windows. An interesting note is that the highest percent of alerts occurs at four days until departure, while the highest average savings can be found 30 days from departure. Airfare Volatility by Industry The question is sometimes asked, Are certain industries better at buying and/or negotiating airfares?, or asked another way, Do certain industries see greater volatility in airfares post-purchase than others? A new crosscut of the data looked at just that, ie analyzing which industries saw the highest amount of airfare volatility. The top 10 industries with the most amount of FareIQ alerts can be shown below in Figure 7. Energy and Pharma both tied for first, with those industries receiving approximately 8.5% of the entire population of ticket alerts, closely followed by Retail at 8%. The top 10 is rounded out by Telecommunications, which received over 5.5% of alerts during the data period. 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Energy Pharma Retail Not For Profit Manufacturing Finance Technology Healthcare Consulting Telecommunications % of tickets with alert Figure 7: Savings Alerts by Industry

9 9 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market American Airlines Most Volatile City Pairs As one of the largest airlines in the U.S., it s interesting to see which city pairs are the most volatile for American Airlines. Figure 8 below shows how the top 10 most volatile city pairs compare to each other based on average alerted ticket price, savings per alert, savings percent and percent alerted. To better interpret this and the next two figures (most volatile city pairs for American, Delta and United) in the white paper, it s important to understand the bars and lines. The full length of the bars represents the original ticket price (on average) for that city pair. The gray portion represents the alerted ticket price, and the orange represents the savings (on average) for that city pair. The solid blue line reveals the percentage of itineraries associated with that city pair had a savings opportunity, while the dashed blue line reveals the percent savings from the originally ticketed airfare. For example, in Figure 8 PHL-PHX has an average original ticket price of $835. The average alerted lower ticket price was $688, resulting in an average savings opportunity for that city pair of $147. Continuing with this same O&D, the savings percent on average was an amazing 18% off the original ticket price, while these savings were made available by the airline on 11% of its flights. It is interesting to note that Los Angeles International Airport appears in four of the top seven most volatile city pairs (as either an origin or a destination). This could potentially be attributed to the increased competition at LAX, further evidenced by American s recently announced $1.6 billion terminal renovation to compete with Delta Airlines. Delta Airlines Most Volatile City Pairs Similar to American Airlines, Yapta analyzed the top 10 most volatile city pairs for Delta Airlines as well, illustrated in Figure 9. As evidenced by the solid blue line, JFK to LAS has the most price fluctuation with 26% of all itineraries having a price drop. The most significant savings from a dollar perspective comes from the IND to MSP route with savings of $204 per alert, or fully 2 off the originally ticketed airfare. Of note is that Seattle shows up six times in this set an indication and validation of Delta s push to enter this market and compete for flyers. Also interesting is that along with American Airlines, Delta s most volatile city pairs are all domestic U.S. routes. $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $ $600 2 $400 $200 $0 ORD - SEA LAX - ORD ORD - LAX ORD - MIA PHL - PHX PHL - LAX LAX - JFK DFW - DCA RDU - DFW SFO - ORD 1 Average Alerted Ticket Price Savings per Alert Savings Percent Percent Alerted Figure 8: American Airlines Most Volatile City Pairs

10 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market 10 United Airlines Most Volatile City Pairs The third airline examined for most volatile city pairs was United Airlines. The results are shown in Figure 10. This year, all of United s most volatile O&Ds are domestic, as opposed to last year when several of their O&Ds included international stops. An interesting note for United is that Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) appears five times in this data set, while both Chicago O Hare (ORD) and Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) appear four times each. Savings On Negotiated Airline Rates vs. Public Rates Figure 11 displays the analysis of negotiated fares vs. $1,200 5 $1,000 $ $600 $400 2 $200 $0 JFK - LAS SEA - JFK JFK - SEA PDX - JFK RDU - BOS LAX - SEA SEA - LAX SNA - SEA MSP - SEA IND - MSP 1 Average Alerted Ticket Price Savings per Alert Savings Percent Percent Alerted Figure 9: Delta Airlines Most Volatile City Pairs $1,400 5 $1,200 4 $1,000 $800 3 $600 2 $400 $200 $0 LAX - IAD EWR - SEA ORD - SEA SFO - EWR EWR - SFO LAX - EWR EWR - AUS ORD - LAX LAX - ORD ORD - SFO 1 Average Alerted Ticket Price Savings per Alert Savings Percent Percent Alerted Figure 10: United Airlines Most Volatile City Pairs

11 11 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market public fares for American Airlines, Delta Airlines and United Airlines. The gray table reveals pricing data when a public fare was originally booked and a lower negotiated fare became available. The table in orange demonstrates the alternative scenario when a negotiated fare was booked and a lower public fare was offered. It s important to note the comparison between number of alerts, identified savings per alert, percent of savings per alert and percent of the airline s total alerts. An interesting take away from this data is the difference between the carriers and the availability of lower negotiated fares when a public fare was originally booked. With American, a negotiated fare beat a public fare 1 of the time, while United, that occurred 6% of the time. However, Delta only presented lower negotiated fares when a public fare was originally booked 2% of the time. Conversely, when a negotiated fare was originally booked, but a publicly available fare is made available that s lower (low enough to cover change fees and/or rebooking fees) this happens 6% of the time on American, 5% of the time on United, and 5% of the time on Delta. It could be concluded that Delta s negotiated fares rarely beat out its public fares (2% of the time) and its public fares beat its negotiated fares nearly three times as often. Lower Fare was Negotiated Airline # of Alerts Identified Savings Per Alert % of Savings Per Alert % of Airline s Total Alerts American Airlines 6,540 $139 14% 1 Delta Airlines 1,307 $151 12% 2% United Airlines 4,955 $184 13% 6% Lower Fare was Public Airline # of Alerts Identified Savings Per Alert % of Savings Per Alert % of Airline s Total Alerts American Airlines 3,828 $152 16% 6% Delta Airlines 4,150 $314 18% 5% United Airlines 3,700 $306 16% 5% Figure 11: Savings on Negotiated vs. Public Fares

12 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market 12 HOTEL INSIGHTS Yapta s intelligent price tracking solution for hotels RoomIQ not only dynamically monitors hotel bookings for price reductions, but by utilizing its patented technology it also provides unsurpassed insights into hotel industry trends and rate level detail not previously known in the industry. Following are a few of the most significant trends that Yapta s technology found for hotel rate volatility. Top 10 Most Volatile Hotel Rates By City The 2017 white paper analysis looked at hotel room rate volatility across all destinations in Yapta s data set, and isolated the data for the top 10 cities with the most pricedrop alerts. Figure 12 displays this data with London, San Francisco and New York City as the top three cities with the most rate volatility. All cities in the top 10 exhibit very volatile pricing practices as evidenced by Santa Ana (at number 10) displaying volatility at over 10 versus the broader population in the data set. In 2016, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Honolulu were the top three most volatile cities. It s also interesting to note that no major Asian cities made this year s top 10, while last year four cities made the list. It should be noted that the volatility for the only international cities (London and Amsterdam) is based solely on the currency of the hotel property and is not impacted by currency fluctuations. Top 10 Most Volatile Hotel Rates By Brand The analysis studied all hotel brands in Yapta s data set, and isolated the top 10 brands with the most price drop alerts, as shown in Figure 13. As with the most volatile cities for hotel rates, the top 10 brands are all significantly more volatile that the broader data set. Kimpton and W Hotels are the most volatile brands, with Hyatt Regency, Westin and Le Meridien rounding out the top 10. This year s top 10 list has a much broader mix of chains, while past years have been dominated by Starwood and Hyatt London San Francisco New York City San Diego Seattle Las Vegas San Jose CA Amsterdam Wash. DC Santa Ana Figure 12: Top 10 Most Volatile Hotel Rates By City

13 13 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market Hotel Rate Volatility by Month In addition to finding the most volatile cities and brands for hotel rates, the analysis looked into the volatility of hotel pricing throughout the year. Figure 14 shows the relative seasonal volatility for each month of the year. The months that are closest to the index line (March, July and September) are most similar to overall price changes, while the months which are above the index line (May, June, February and January) have the most volatility. Months below the index line (April, August, October, November and December), while still exhibiting price volatility, are relatively more stable when compared to other months throughout the year. This analysis reveals that for hotels booked in May, there is a significantly higher probability that a price drop will occur, and for the travel month of November, prices exhibit lesser volatility. It is interesting to note that May, just as it was last year, is once again the most volatile month of the year for hotel rates. The index line (August, February and January), while still exhibiting price volatility, are relatively more stable when compared to other months throughout the year. This analysis reveals that for hotels booked in May, there is a significantly higher probability that a price drop will occur, and for the travel month of August, Kimpton Hotels W Hotels Hilton Int l Radisson Intercontinental Preferred Hotels WV Ind. Boutique Hotels Hyatt Regency Westin Le Meridien Figure 13: Top 10 Most Volatile Hotel Rates By Brand January February March April May June July August September October November December Figure 14: Hotel Rate Volatility by Month

14 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market 14 prices exhibit lesser volatility. This could be attributed to the overall impact of hotel revenue management for the consumer-driven summer months and its associated impact on overall rates at hotels, regardless of the purpose of the trip. Most Volatile Hotel Chains in Top 3 Cities While the White Paper analysis has historically examined the most volatile cities for hotel rates, this year the investigation took a more detailed look by determining the hotel chains in each of those cities that are driving the greatest rate changes. Figure 15 shows the most volatile chains for the top three cities of London, San Francisco, and New York. Chains with the greatest rate fluctuations in London are the Macdonald Group, Radisson and Taj Hotels. The most volatile chains in San Francisco are Sheraton, Intercontinental and Omni. And in New York, Worldhotels, Grand Life Hotels, and Millennium are the three most volatile chains. London New York City San Francisco Macdonald Hotel Group 171% Radisson 95% Worldhotels 192% Grand Life Hotels 134% Sheraton 74% Intercontinental 53% Taj Hotels 93% Millennium 122% Omni 46% Figure 15: Most Valatile Hotel Chains in the Top 3 Most Volatile Cities HOTEL RATE SAVINGS This year s analysis of RoomIQ alerts included a more in-depth look at how amenities, room type, bed type and public vs. negotiated rates play into savings across hotel rates. Hotel Rate Savings Amenities Driven by the unique capability of RoomIQ to dynamically read rate-level details, Yapta s white paper analysis looked at savings associated with key amenities (Wi-Fi, breakfast, and parking). As reflected in Figure 16, the investigation revealed something surprising. In all three cases, the most savings found occur when an amenity is gained. While somewhat counterintuitive, this means that hotels are making lower rates available that include an

15 15 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market $300 Average savings per stay $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Hi Speed Internet Breakfast Parking Identified Savings Resulting in Gain Identified Savings Resulting in Loss Identified Savings Resulting in No Change Figure 16: Hotel Rate Savings Amenities improvement in amenity. The remaining bars in the graph reveal price drop savings available when that particular amenity is lost (e.g., the lower rate does not include Wi- Fi), and when there is no change to the amenity (e.g., the originally booked and lower rates both include Wi-Fi). Corporations spend months each year negotiating with hotel partners to achieve preferred rates that include key amenities. Yet the data shows that hotels are making rates available that are not only lower, but include an improvement in amenities. Is it worth spending all that time negotiating with hoteliers? The data implies that the jury is still out. Hotel Rate Savings Room Type Again enabled by RoomIQ s unique capabilities to dynamically read rate-level details, the white paper analysis examined savings associated with a change to room type. In Figure 17, savings are found in same exact rate code, same bed and room type, bed type change, superior to standard room, and change from suite. The result are not surprising in that the most savings have been found when switching from a suite to a lesser room type ($150/stay), or from a Superior to a Standard Room ($125/stay). However, what is interesting is the amount of savings available to companies without any traveler impact. Over $74/stay was saved within the same rate code, and $104/stay with the same room and bed type. Yapta s RoomIQ: DDSaves an average of $109 per trip DDIdentifies savings on 12% of all bookings DDMonitors bookings directly from the GDS DDProvides real-time data insights and analytics, available 24/7

16 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market 16 Same exact rate code Change from suite $ $74.24 $ Same bed and room type $ $90.94 Superior to standard room Bed type change Figure 17: Hotel Rate Savings Room Type Hotel Rate Savings Public vs. Negotiated Similar to the analysis of negotiated and public airfares for the top three U.S. carriers, Yapta s white paper studied the availability of negotiated and public rates across the four largest chains Marriott, Hilton, Starwood, and Intercontinental Hotel Group (IHG). As shown in Figure 19, the analysis looked at the number of times a negotiated rate is lower than an originally booked public rate as well as when a public rate is lower than the originally booked negotiated rate. The data reveals that the top chains are making their negotiated rates available almost twice as often as when a public rate beats a negotiated rate. The analysis looked at savings available for each hotel stay, as well as how often the major chains made those lower prices available ( % of Chain s Total Alerts ). With savings ranging from $96 to $170 per stay for lower negotiated rates, and $87 to $132 on public rates, substantial savings are available. < 7 days 7 14 days days > 21 days Average Online Booking $228 $238 $237 $242 Average Lower Identified Rate $191 $202 $203 $209 Average Net Savings $37 $35 $34 $33 Figure 18: Advance Booking Volatility (Rates are Per Night)

17 17 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market Lower Rate was Negotiated Hotel Chain # of Alerts Identified Savings Per Alert % of Savings Per Alert % of Chain s Total Alerts Hilton Hotel Brands 16,442 $97 16% 33% Intercontinental Hotel Brands 4,443 $99 15% 29% Marriott Hotel Brands $170 23% 25% Starwood Hotel Brands 6,565 $123 17% 21% Lower Rate was Public Hotel Chain # of Alerts Identified Savings Per Alert % of Savings Per Alert % of Chain s Total Alerts Hilton Hotel Brands 9,557 $87 14% 19% Intercontinental Hotel Brands 2,460 $110 13% 16% Marriott Hotel Brands 2,547 $132 14% 6% Starwood Hotel Brands 2,966 $97 13% 9% Figure 19: Savings on Negotiated vs. Public Rates Advance Booking Volatility (Per Night) Similar to the days-to-departure analysis for airline pricing, Yapta s white paper, for the first time, assessed advanced booking volatility for hotel rates. The data in Figure 18 reveals the difference in hotel rates between booking greater than 21 days in advance to booking within one week of arrival. Rates drop very consistently the closer to check-in, going from $242/night to $228/ night, with an average net savings of $33-37/night. This tends to indicate that hoteliers are systematically opening rate codes to drive occupancy at similar dollar discounts, regardless of how early or late a rate is booked.

18 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market 18 Hotel Rate Volatility 30 Days Out The chart shown below (in Figure 20) represents savings opportunities at hotels from 30 days before arrival up until check-in. Interestingly, the savings per night does not vary significantly, ranging from about $31/night to $37/ night. The noteworthy part of this analysis is the number of price drops that occur. At 30 days out, less than 1% of the hotel bookings have a price drop, meaning the prices are stable. However, closer to check-in, the number of price drops skyrocket with the most occurring between seven days prior to arrival and check-in. The data also reveals an increase in the number of price drops at 14 days before arrival and again at seven days before arrival. It would appear that hoteliers are mimicking, to a certain extent, the airline practice of 14-day and 7-day advance purchase windows. Lastly, it is worth noting that the dollar savings per night does not significantly fluctuate over this time period, beginning at just over $35/night 30 days before arrival, and ending at just under $36/night just before check-in. It would appear that hoteliers may simply be opening up more inventory at similar discounts as the stay approaches. $38 1 9% $36 8% 7% $34 6% 5% $32 4% $30 $28 Identified Savings per Night % of Alerts Days from Alert to Stay 3% 2% 1% Figure 20: Hotel Rate Volatility 30 Days Out

19 19 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market CURRENT EVENTS Media Impacts on Business Traveler Behavior With the rise of social media, video sharing platforms, and ever-present smartphones, there have been some significant PR issues for United Airlines over the last year. Several viral videos cast them in a light less than flattering. As a result, the White Paper analysis this year included a look into how these issues may have affected business traveler booking behavior and how United managed its pricing. The most widely-viewed video (of the man being dragged out of his seat) was released in April. While there was a slight drop in average ticket price around that time, United s prices have shown a rebound in May. The small drop could have been a safety net in response to the public criticism drawn from the video. A second investigation of the data looked at booking trends for United in light of the PR issues. Did businesses book less on United due to the unfavorable publicity? The answer seems to be a definite maybe. United did see a drop in bookings in April (as a percentage of the overall bookings in the data set), but had been exhibiting a downward trend since September So while there was a drop, it is difficult to conclude it was solely PR-related. Are Business Travelers Booking Basic Economy? Airlines have recently introduced basic economy fares, ie, fares that don t allow seat selection, early boarding, carry-on luggage, etc. While targeted primarily at the cost-conscious leisure traveler, do these fares appeal to the business traveler? It doesn t appear so. As of $950 $900 Date of video: 4/10/2017 Basic ecomony 1.3% $850 $800 $750 $700 UA DL AA Basic ecomony 0.4% United Airlines Basic ecomony 0.2% $650 $600 $550 American Airlines Delta Airlines $500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Figure 21: 2017 Avg. Ticket Price by Month Figure 22: Basic Economy Bookings Percentage

20 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market 20 May 2017 (which, incidentally saw a large jump), only 1.3% of all imported United Airlines bookings included basic economy. For Delta and American, their most basic and restrictive fares were only booked 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. Figure 22 shows the most recent three months in the data set for United s basic economy bookings and spend. Marriott/Starwood Merger In late 2015 it was announced that Marriott and Starwood would be merging to create the world s largest hotel company, and in September 2016, the merger was complete. With this kind of pricing power, did the merger impact revenue management, pricing, and savings for Starwood and Marriott properties? As shown in Figure 23, it appears that savings for both chains have increased since September What s interesting to note is that savings from public rates has increased for Marriott since the merger, while savings on negotiated rates have increased at Starwood properties. Overall, savings at both chains have increased since September, which may be an effort by both chains to retain and woo their most loyal guests. 4. Merger completed May, '16 June '16 July '16 August '16 September '16 October '16 November '16 December '16 January '17 February '17 March '17 April '17 Marriott Savings (%of spend) Total Negotiated Public Starwood Savings (%of spend) Total Negotiated Public Figure 23: Savings for Marriott and Starwood Properties

21 21 Airfare and Hotel Rate Volatility: Dynamic Pricing in the Corporate Travel Market CONCLUSION With airfare and hotel rates continuing to increase in price and complexity, travel managers face the challenge of understanding the complexity and finding ways to improve their employee travel cost-effectiveness. Offsetting increased spend, finding savings, and getting clear insights into data makes it ever more important to take a focused approach in a transparent environment to overall travel programs. Yapta has enabled businesses to save over $80 million on travel. This white paper reflects analysis of those savings and more, providing a snapshot of the types of insights that can be offered to clients to manage travel spend, boost traveler compliance, and improve supplier negotiations. ABOUT YAPTA Yapta is the pioneer in airfare and hotel price assurance services for travelers. Launched in 2007 as the travel industry s first airfare price tracking and refund alert service, Yapta has delivered more than $550 million in airfare savings alerts to consumers. Today, Yapta s Intelligent Price Tracking technologies, FareIQ and RoomIQ, are helping companies reduce spend and extend their T&E budget by constantly tracking booked airfares and hotels and flagging lower rates when they become available. For more information about Yapta, visit

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