Aeronautical Satcom Markets

Transcription

1 Report Briefing

2 Report Description NSR s Aeronautical Satcom Markets report answers the critical questions affecting the in-flight connectivity business. Based on NSR s extensive coverage and strong foundation of measuring and monitoring the changes and trends that drive aeronautical satcom services, this report maps additional ancillary revenues, connectivity and bandwidth requirements, passenger take-up and the global evolution of this marketplace in the coming decade. This complete analytical tool will help readers track the development and advances of this evolving market. It will help answer fundamental questions about aeronautical satcom services such as: What are the main aeronautical satcom markets? What are the connectivity requirements for each airframe segment? What will be the impact of the expansion of air-to-ground systems on satellite services and vice-versa? What is the competitive landscape and the competitive forces at play? How many airframes are in the addressable market? What type of platform and frequency bands will be used? What trends and drivers are impacting the market? What is the market share of service providers and equipment manufacturers in this market? How much will passengers spend on connectivity? What will be the penetration rate of satellite in the in-flight connectivity market? Which services will help the passenger experience grow the market the most in the short-, medium and long-term? Are there still new opportunities and if so, which ones will be the most important in the coming decade? What level of demand for satellite bandwidth and capacity will emerge in each frequency band, platform, and region? Bottom Line: How does NSR see the Aeronautical SatCom Markets developing over the next 10 years in each region and for each segment of the market

3 Energy Markets via Satellite, 3 rd Edition The NSR Difference With a solid track record and proven methodology is what underpins NSR s Aeronautical Satcom Markets report. The report analyzes the speed at which these changes take place and where the market will grow in the decade ahead. With years of experience covering the aeronautical satellite market, NSR provides a completely fresh and up-to-date assessment with highly valuable information and data points to assess where the market is headed globally and by region. NSR s Aeronautical Satcom Markets provides an objective view of the trends underlying the growth and the major impact of drivers and restraint to growth in both commercial and government segments. By evaluating and forecasting type of services, passenger take-uprate, revenues from services, satcom units, bandwidth usage, equipment, average revenues per unit, passenger spending, capacity demand and customer segments, NSR provides the most complete and thorough analysis of the future trends in the aeronautical satcom services market for the next ten years.

4 Key Features Unparalleled Market Forecasts This report provides readers with forecasts on key industry parameters to assess the success of various markets: In-Service Unit Forecasts by airframes for the General, Business, Commercial, and Government markets. Retail and Wholesale Revenues Forecasts to provide not only total services but also equipment retail revenues, showing how revenues scale along the value chain for each platform and by frequency. Furthermore, the relevant Average Revenues per User (ARPU) figures are segmented along both retail and wholesale revenues to help assess the revenuegeneration capabilities of users and a variety of categories of services and types of airframe and equipment. Transponder Demand Forecasts segmented along the main commercial FSS frequencies (Ku- and Ka-band) and new HTS satellites Commercial and Government Segment Forecasts to assess the precise customer demand trends by segment Who Should Purchase this Report? Carriers and Aircraft Leasing Operators Aircraft Manufacturers Mobile Satellite Services (MSS) and Fixed Satellite Services (FSS) Operators Distributors, Service Providers, and Resellers Network Service Providers Satellite Manufacturers Financial Institutions Evaluating Investment and Returns in the Aeronautical Market Terminal, Antenna, Smartphone and Handset Manufacturers Regulators Evaluating Aeronautical Market Offerings and Spectrum Utilizations Agencies Funding Pre-Competitive Telecom Research and Development Space Agencies Users in Both Commercial and Government/Military Organizations Elements of this Study Include: A Complete PowerPoint Report Document containing all quantitative and qualitative analysis. An Excel file containing all data and graphs so the client can easily use this work as a basis for their own internal market projections. A Market Summary Document (PDF) containing an overview of the report findings and recommendations. Complimentary 1/2 half day of consulting time with the NSR analyst who authored the report to review report findings and interpret the market. Have Questions on the Content or Scope of this Report? Please Click Here to E mail Your Questions to the Report Author

5 Aeronautical Satcom Services- Report Segmentation

6 Executive Summary The smallest addressable market among mobile satellite platforms, the aeronautical segment has conversely shown very high service revenues on average, driven in large part by government markets. However, with the recent wave of satellite equipment installations on commercial aircraft, in-flight connectivity services have reached a tipping point on the growth curve. Wi-Fi equipment is now offered with or without connectivity to meet the demand for enhanced passenger experience. Original equipment manufacturer (OEM) deals with service providers have multiplied to offer line-fit options on more airframes than ever before, and ISR applications remain a key driver of government aeronautical applications. All told, an emerging business case for commercial passenger connectivity is just on the horizon, leading to stronger than ever growth for aeronautical satellite connectivity players.

7 The aeronautical satcom market is driven by the general aviation and rotor wing airframe market for in-service units and by narrow-body commercial aircraft for revenues. In terms of bandwidth demand, narrow-body aircraft will show the highest demand for both Ku-band and HTS capacity, while the sheer number of L-band units installed will generate a sizeable portion of the revenues over the forecast period. Key findings of NSR s Aeronautical Satcom Markets analysis include: In-service units will be added over the next ten years at a 6.3% CAGR, driven in large part by L-band units that serve mostly the GA & RW market. The largest growth in the total will come from narrow-body aircraft, which will account for 27% of in-service units at the end of Retail revenues will inch up to $3.4 billion in 2022, with about one-third from narrowbody aircraft. The expected transition to high-throughput satellite (HTS) connectivity will mean that HTS revenues will see sizable growth from almost zero today. Bandwidth demand across Ku-band and HTS will grow significantly by the end of 2022 and reach $670 million in revenues. Wide-body and narrow-body commercial airframes will drive Ku-band market demand, while narrow-body airframes (which are installed earlier than wide-body and business jets) will drive HTS capacity demand. Bottom Line The aeronautical satcom market is on the cusp of a huge increase in demand and will experience significant changes with a proliferation of new solutions to enable better and more widespread inflight entertainment and connectivity (IFEC). The IFEC market will push demand up and reach 35% of total revenues in 2022 as data and Wi-Fi systems installed on commercial airlines take hold of the emerging satellite connectivity market.

8 Table of Contents Executive Summary 1.Context and Trends Aeronautical Satcom Addressable Markets by Airframe Wide-Body Narrow-Body (includes Regional) General Aviation and Rotor Wing Business Jets Trends Air-to-ground vs Satellite Range Extension Biz Jet Rebound Coverage and Cost Cost of equipment Price of Service Consolidation in Aero Satcom OEMs Deals 2. Market Ecosystem Market Share By Revenues By In-Service Units By Aircraft Contracts Service Providers Aircraft Contract Market Environment Penetration Rate VSAT Penetration Rate L-Band Connectivity MSS vs FSS vs HTS

9 3. Market Forecasts Global Forecast In-Service Units and Revenues By Airframe By Frequency Band By Service Type By Segment Transponders Demand/HTS Capacity Airframes Wide-body Narrow-body General Aviation & Rotor Wing Business Jets Service Type IFEC Safety of flight Segments Commercial Government/Military Transponder and Capacity Ku-Band HTS 4. Annex (Methodology)

10 List of Exhibits Ex. ES.1 Aeronautical Satcom Addressable Markets Ex. ES.2 Wide-Body Addressable Markets Ex. ES.3 Narrow-Body Addressable Markets Ex. ES.4 General Aviation and Rotor Wing Addressable Markets Ex. ES.5 Business Jets Addressable Markets Ex. ES.6 Aeronautical L-Band Penetration Ex. ES.7 ATG, Ku-Band and HTS Market Share by Revenues Ex. ES.8 Aeronautical VSAT Penetration Ex. ES.9 Aeronautical Satcom Markets In-Services Units by Airframe, Segment & Frequency Band Ex. ES.10 Aeronautical Satcom Retail Revenues and Capacity Demand by Frequency Band Ex. ES.11 Aeronautical Satcom Retail Revenues by Airframe Ex. ES.12 Aeronautical Satcom Retail Revenues by Service Ex. 1.1 Aeronautical Satcom Addressable Market Ex. 1.2 Wide-Body Addressable Market Ex. 1.3 Narrow-Body Addressable Market Ex. 1.4 General Aviation and Rotor Wing Addressable Market Ex. 1.5 Business Jets Addressable Market Ex. 1.6 Aeronautical Air-to-Ground and Satellite Services Comparison Ex. 1.7 Aeronautical Air-to-Ground, Ku-Band and HTS Market Share by In-Service Units Ex. 1.8 Aeronautical Air-to-Ground, Ku-Band and HTS Market Share by Revenues Ex. 1.9 Aeronautical Satcom Services Rating Chart Ex Business Jets Deliveries Ex Aeronautical Connectivity Pricing Ex Aeronautical Connectivity Equipment Cost by Airframe Ex Aeronautical Connectivity ARPU by Airframe Ex Aeronautical Satcom Markets Mergers and Acquisitions, Ex Aeronautical OEM Installations by Aircraft and Service Provider

11 Ex. 2.1 Aeronautical Connectivity Service Providers Market Share by Revenues Ex. 2.2 Aeronautical Ku-Band Service Providers Market Share by In-Service Units Ex. 2.3 Aeronautical Connectivity Service Providers Market Share by Aircraft Contracted Ex. 2.4 Aeronautical Service Provider Aircraft under Contract Ex. 2.5 Penetration Rate of Satellite Connectivity by Airframe Type Ex. 2.6 Penetration Rate of L-Band Satellite Connectivity by Airframe Type Ex. 2.7 FSS vs. MSS vs. HTS IFEC Market Share for Commercial Aircraft Market Ex. 3.1 Aeronautical Satcom Market In-service Units, by Scenario Ex. 3.2 Aeronautical Satcom Retail Services Revenues, by Region Ex. 3.3 Aeronautical Satcom Retail Equipment Revenues, by Region Ex. 3.4 Aeronautical Satcom Total Retail Revenues, by Region Ex. 3.5 Aeronautical Satcom In-Service Units by Airframe Ex. 3.6 Aeronautical Satcom Revenues by Airframe Ex. 3.7 Aeronautical Satcom In-Service Units by Frequency Band Ex. 3.8 Aeronautical Satcom Total Retail Revenues by Frequency Band Ex. 3.9 Aeronautical Satcom In-Service Units by Service Type Ex Aeronautical Satcom Retail and Wholesale Revenues by Service Type Ex Aeronautical Satcom In-Service Units and Retail Revenues by Segment Ex Aeronautical Satcom TPE and Bandwidth Demand Ex Aeronautical Satcom TPE Demand and HTS Capacity Revenues Ex Wide-Body Market In-Service Units Ex Wide-Body Market Transponder and Bandwidth Demand Ex Wide-Body Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Wide-Body Ku-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Wide-Body Ku-Band Transponder Demand Ex Wide-Body Ku-Band In-Service Units by Segment Ex Wide-Body Commercial Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Wide-Body Commercial Ku-Band Transponder Demand and Equipment Revenues Ex Wide-Body Gov t/mil. Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Wide-Body Gov t/mil. Ku-Band Transponder Demand and Equipment Revenues Ex Wide-Body L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Wide-Body L-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Wide-Body L-Band In-Service Units by Segment Ex Wide-Body Commercial L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Wide-Body Commercial L-Band Equipment and Services Revenues Ex Wide-Body Government L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario

12 Ex Wide-Body Gov t/mil. L-Band Retail and Wholesale Revenues Ex Wide-Body HTS In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Wide-Body HTS Retail Equipment and Services Revenues by Region Ex Wide-Body HTS Bandwidth Demand Ex Wide-Body Commercial HTS In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Wide-Body Commercial HTS Bandwidth Demand and Equipment Revenues Ex Wide-Body Gov t/mil HTS In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Wide-Body HTS Gov t/mil. HTS Bandwidth Demand and Equipment Revenues Ex Narrow-Body Market In-Service Units Ex Narrow-Body Market Transponder and Capacity Demand Ex Narrow-Body Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Narrow-Body Ku-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Narrow-Body Ku-Band Transponder Demand Ex Narrow-Body Ku-Band In-Service Units by Segment Ex Narrow-Body Commercial Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Narrow-Body Commercial Ku-Band Transponder Demand and Equipment Revenues Ex Narrow-Body Gov t/mil. Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Narrow-Body Ku-Band Gov t/mil. Transponder Demand and Equipment Revenues Ex Narrow-Body L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Narrow-Body L-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Narrow-Body L-Band In-Service Units by Segment Ex Narrow-Body Commercial L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Narrow-Body Commercial L-Band Equipment and Services Revenues Ex Narrow-Body Government L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Narrow-Body Gov t/mil. L-Band Equipment and Services Revenues Ex Narrow-Body Gov t/mil. L-Band Retail and Wholesale Revenues Ex Narrow-Body HTS In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Narrow-Body HTS Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex Narrow-Body HTS Bandwidth Demand Ex Narrow-Body Commercial HTS In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Narrow-Body Commercial HTS Bandwidth Demand and Equipment Revenues Ex Narrow-Body Gov t/mil HTS In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Narrow-Body HTS Gov t/mil. Bandwidth Demand and Equipment Revenues Ex General Aviation and Rotor Wing Market In-Service Units Ex GA & RW Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex GA & RW Ku-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex GA & RW Ku-Band Transponder Demand

13 Ex GA & RW L-Band Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex GA & RW Commercial L-Band Equipment and Services Revenues Ex GA & RW Gov t/mil. L-Band Equipment and Services Revenues Ex Business Jets Market In-Service Units Ex Business Jets Market Transponder and HTS Capacity Demand Ex Business Jets Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Business Jets Ku-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Business Jets Ku-Band Transponder Demand Ex Business Jets Ku-Band In-Service Units by Segment Ex Business Jets Commercial Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Business Jets Commercial Ku-Band Transponder Demand and Equipment Revenues Ex Business Jets Gov t/mil. Ku-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Business Jets L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Business Jets L-Band Total Retail Revenues by Region Ex Business Jets L-Band In-Service Units by Segment Ex Business Jets Commercial L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Business Jets Commercial L-Band Equipment and Services Revenues Ex Business Jets Gov t/mil. L-Band In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Business Jets Gov t/mil. L-Band Retail and Wholesale Revenues Ex Business Jets HTS In-Service Units by Scenario Ex Business Jets HTS Retail & Wholesale Revenues Ex Business Jets HTS Bandwidth Demand Ex Business Jets Commercial HTS In-Service Units by Segment Ex IFEC Market In-Service Units by Service Type Ex IFEC Market Equipment and Total Retail Revenues Ex IFEC GSM/Voice Market In-Service Units Ex IFEC GSM/Voice Market In-Service Units and Equipment Revenues Ex Safety of Flight Market In-Service Units and Total Retail Revenues Ex Aeronautical Satcom Commercial In-Service Units Ex Aeronautical Satcom Gov t/mil In-Service Units by Airframe Ex Ku-Band Aeronautical Transponder Demand and Revenues Ex Ku-Band Aeronautical Transponder Demand by Airframe Ex Ku-Band Aeronautical Transponder Demand and Revenues Ex HTS Aeronautical Total Retail Revenues by Airframe