Randy Tinseth Vice President, Marketing Boeing Commercial Airplanes July 2010

Transcription

1 CURRENT MARKET OUTLOOK Randy Tinseth Vice President, Marketing Boeing Commercial Airplanes July 2010 BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company. Copyright 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved. The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing.

2 Agenda Current Market Outlook (CMO) Market trends and realities 20-year forecast

3 Long-term forecast reflects today s market realities Boeing has publicly issued its Current Market Outlook for more than 40 years. During that time, the Outlook has reflected both sizeable upturns and downturns. Our industry has faced significant market challenges, including the Asian Financial Crisis, SARS, terrorist acts, three major world recessions, two Gulf wars.all clearly with their own dynamics and their own impact on global air travel. What we have learned is that our industry, which is based on the need to transport passengers and freight via our global aviation system, is extremely resilient. Based on that perspective, as we always do, we have developed the forecast in a manner that considers today s market environment but, just as importantly, takes a long-term view of the market and the fundamentals that drive commercial aviation. These drivers include economic growth, world trade, market liberalization, new aircraft capabilities, etc. So, while acknowledging our near-term challenges, let s take a longerview look. Over the next 20-years, the basic factors underlying new airplane demand are strong.

4 Boeing Current Market Outlook Published since 1964 All jets 30 seats and above No turbo props No business jets Scheduled and nonscheduled flying Freighters

5 Entirely web-based CMO Real-time Interactive Downloadable Popular (last 12 months) Visits: 710,122 Downloads: 259,971

6 Boeing product forecast in-line with the realities of the market 100% Large 5% Large 3% Twin-aisle 21% Twin-aisle 21% 75% Size category Large Twin-aisle Single-aisle Regional jet 50% Single-aisle 55% Single-aisle 62% 25% 0% Regional Jet 19% Boeing forecast ,315 units Regional Jet 14% Airplane demand 2000 Present* 17,796 units *Deliveries 2000 thru May 14, 2010 plus backlog

7 Different view of the market has led to different strategies 100% Large 2% Large 4% A380 9% Twin-aisle 23% Twin-aisle 25% 75% Twin-aisle 35% Size category A380 Large Twin-aisle Single-aisle 50% Single-aisle 75% Single-aisle 71% 25% Single-aisle 55% 0% Airplane demand 2000 Present* 14,698 units Boeing forecast ,318 units Airbus forecast ,661 units * Deliveries 2000 thru May 14, 2010 plus backlog (passenger jets only, excluding RJs)

8 Agenda Current Market Outlook (CMO) Market trends and realities 20-year forecast

9 Single-aisle* demand exceeding expectations 10-year forecast, ,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Growth driven by: Low Cost Carriers Emerging markets Replacement demand 0 Boeing forecast 5,228 Airbus forecast** 4,726 Airplane deliveries 6,084 *Single-aisle defined as all single-aisle aircraft >90 seats ** Airbus forecast estimated by Boeing from GMF

10 Air travel becoming more diverse geographically Air traffic, RPKs (billions) 14,000 12,000 10,000 Other Middle East China 8,000 6,000 4,000 Asia (excl. China) Europe 45% 2, % 58% North America

11 Emerging business models are growing and gaining market share Air traffic, RPKs (billions) 14,000 12,000 10,000 38% Emerging business models 8,000 6,000 4,000 25% 62% Network & other 2,000 14% 86% 75% *Emerging business models include LCCs, 6 th Freedom Gulf carriers and Chinese carriers

12 Passengers wanting and getting more frequencies and nonstop service 1.5 Index 2000=1.00 World Nonstop Markets Air Travel Growth Frequency Growth Average Airplane Size All routes August OAG

13 Long-range twins dominating as airlines meet the demands of their customers 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1, Deliveries 8:1 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 0 Twin-aisles Large Twin-aisles Large Year-end 2009 Backlog 7:1 All jets

14 Volatile fuel prices impacting the industry Spot $/Barrel (Brent Crude Oil / Rotterdam Jet Fuel) Average annual prices $29 $24 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $62 Jet Fuel Crude Oil Ended economic viability of small regional jets Forced airlines to Accelerate fleet renewal Improve non-fuel cost management Streamline fleet operations Encouraging development of alternative fuel sources Historical data source: EIA

15 Market trends and realities summary Single-aisle airplane demand stronger and more resilient than expected Emerging markets and business models creating a more diverse and balanced marketplace Passengers getting what they want-- more frequencies and nonstop service-- spurring strong demand for long-range twins Rising and volatile fuel prices will continue to change our industry

16 Agenda Current Market Outlook (CMO) Market trends and realities 20-year forecast

17 Market forecast drivers and considerations Traffic forecast Annual growth, Network development WORLD 4.9 Northeast Asia Europe North America 3.2 Oceania 5.1 Central America 5.6 South America 7.0 Middle East 6.6 CIS 5.1 Southeast Asia 6.6 Africa 5.8 Southwest Asia China Economic growth Percentage Market liberalization Airplane capabilities Fuel price Infrastructure Environment $70-90/barrel High speed rail Airline strategies & business models

18 World air travel has grown 5% per year since Trend F RPKs (trillions) RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers Sources: ICAO Scheduled Traffic

19 20-year forecast: strong long-term growth World economy (GDP) Airplane fleet Number of airline passengers Airline traffic (RPK) Cargo traffic (RTK) 2009 to % 3.3% 4.2% 4.9% 5.3% 5.4% 5.9% 20-year traffic growth rates are higher than last year's forecast because they are calculated off a lower base year

20 Air travel growth has been met by increased frequencies and nonstops 3.0 Index 1988=1.00 World Air Travel Growth Frequency Growth Nonstop Markets Average Airplane Size All routes August OAG

21 Airlines will need 30,900 new airplanes valued at $3.6 trillion Airplane deliveries: 30, ,000 Market value: $3.6T ,800 Airplane units 20,000 1,600 15,000 10,000 5,000 Market value, $ billions 1, ,920 regional jets 6% 21,160 single-aisle 69% 7,100 twin-aisle 23% 720 large 2% 0 $60B regional jets 2% $1,680B single-aisle 47% $1,630B twin-aisle 45% $220B large 6%

22 Older, less efficient airplanes will be replaced with more efficient, newer generation airplanes Units 40,000 36,300 30,000 20,000 18,890 10,000 17,410 Growth 56% 13,490 Replacement 44% 30, ,400 Retained fleet 2029

23 World fleet will nearly double by % % 16% 18,890 airplanes 61% 20% % 10% 27,060 airplanes 67% 23% % 6% 36,300 airplanes 68% Large Twin-aisle Single-aisle Regional jet

24 Emerging markets are driving the economic growth Annual GDP growth China South Asia Asia Pacific Africa Southeast Asia 4.3 Middle East Latin America CIS World Oceania 2.7 North America 2.7 Europe Northeast Asia Source: Global Insight

25 Air travel growth varies by market Asia Pacific* 2009 traffic Added traffic Annual growth% 7.1% Within North America 2.8% Within Europe 4.1% Within China 7.9% Europe Asia Pacific 5.6% North Atlantic Middle East Asia Pacific Transpacific Within Latin America 7.5% 4.8% 7.1% 4.3% World Average Growth: 5.3% North America Latin America 5.3% Europe Latin America 4.6% Africa Europe 4.6% Within/to CIS 4.8% *includes within China ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 RPKs, billions

26 Market for new airplanes set to become considerably more geographically balanced New airplane deliveries by region Market value by region Region Airplanes 3% 2% 7% Region $B 3% 6% 2% Asia Pacific 10,320 Asia Pacific 1,320 8% North America 7,200 34% North America % Europe 7,190 Europe 800 Middle East 2,340 30,900 Middle East 390 $3.6T Latin America 2,180 Latin America 210 C.I.S % C.I.S % Africa 710 Africa 80 23% World Total 30,900 World Total $3,590B 19% 37%

27 Integrated top-down/bottom-up freighter fleet forecast methodology World Air Cargo Forecast Projected traffic Total cargo lift Demand minus Current Market Outlook Passenger and combi airplane forecast Lower-hold lift Supply equals Freighter airplane requirement Needed freighter lift Supply

28 Future freighter deliveries will be led by demand for large widebodies New freighter deliveries: Market value: $180 billion % % Airplane units % Market value % Large More than 80 tonnes 210 Medium 40 to 80 tonnes 1% 10 Standard Less than 45 tonnes 25 0 $140B Large More than 80 tonnes $40B Medium 40 to 80 tonnes <1% $1B Standard Less than 45 tonnes

29 Future freight 740 new and 1,750 converted Market value: $180 billion 520 Size category Large More than 80 tonnes 250 Medium 40 to 80 tonnes Standard Less than 45 tonnes 2009 Freighters 1, Freighters 2,980 1, to 2029 freighters 2,

30 European airlines business model shifts ASKs % % % 3% 16% 59% 15% 14% 54% 20% 18% 48% LCC Charter/IT Broad Network Other Networks Source: Boeing CMOs

31 Europe air traffic growth varies by market Within Europe 2009 traffic Added traffic Annual growth % 4.1% To and from North America 4.3% To and from Middle East To and from Africa To and from Southeast Asia To and from China To and from South America To and from South Asia To and from Central America To and from Northeast Asia 6.0% 4.6% 5.5% 6.0% 5.0% 7.1% 4.1% 3.7% Europe Average Growth: 4.4% Region s Average GDP Growth: 1.9% ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 RPKs, billions

32 European airlines will need 7,190 new airplanes Market value: $800 billion Size category Large Twin-aisle Single-aisle Regional jet Share of fleet Delivery units 2% 4% 19% 2009 Airplanes 4, Airplanes 7, to 2029 New airplanes 7,190 75%

33 A large demand for replacing older, lessefficient aircraft Units 8,000 7,460 6,000 3,160 Growth 44% 4,300 4,000 7,190 2,000 4,030 Replacement 56% Retained fleet

34 European airlines environmental strategy means more new airplanes 100% Share of fleet 96% New airplanes 75% 50% Better for: Environment Passengers Airlines 25% 0% 2029 Airplane fleet 7,460 4% Remaining airplanes

35 Europe forecast vs. backlog 7,190 New Airplane Deliveries 2010 to ,000 4,800 3,600 2,400 1,200 1,314 Airplane Backlog , Regional jets 4% 5,380 Single-aisle 75% 1,340 Twin-aisle 19% 160 Large 2% Regional jets 2% 955 Single-aisle 73% 258 Twin-aisle 19% 75 Large 6% Source: Forecast CMO 2010 Backlog Airclaims 5/10

36 Market-driving products and services Full market coverage from seats Environmentally progressive Operational commonality Long-range, fast, reliable Low operating cost Standardization Passenger experience Lifecycle solutions

37 Substantial, balanced backlog validates Boeing s product strategy $ = Billions Backlog $ Twin- Aisle 60% 787 Model 747 Large 8% Single- Aisle 32% Region ME, Central & S. Asia Leasing & Gov't North America L. America & Africa Asia Pacific Q 2010 Russia Europe China, East & SE Asia

38 Unmet demand provides tremendous opportunity for the future RJ 2% Large 6% Large 5% RJ 2% 787 Twinaisle 45% Forecast $3.6T Singleaisle 47% Twinaisle 44% Unsold $2.6T Singleaisle 49% (by $ value) 767

39 World forecast vs. backlog 30,900 New Airplane Deliveries 2010 to ,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 7,327 Airplane Backlog 5, ,000 Including unplaced lease content 0 1,920 Regional jets 6% 21,160 Single-aisle 69% 7,100 Twin-aisle 23% 720 Large 2% 3 4 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Regional jets 5% 4,572 Single-aisle 63% 2,073 Twin-aisle 28% 304 Large 4% Source: Forecast CMO 2010 Backlog Airclaims 6/10

40 Things to remember Boeing CMO: long-term forecast reflecting realities of today s market Shapes our product strategy Supports our long-range business plan Provides valuable data in our airline planning process Aviation industry resilient; long-term market outlook is strong Passenger air travel will grow at 5.3%, cargo at 5.9% Airlines will need 30,900 new airplanes valued at $3.6 trillion, European airlines will need 7,190 airplanes valued at $800 billion Boeing s market-driving products and services are ideally matched to the market today and in the future

41 Things to remember Boeing CMO: long-term forecast reflecting realities of today s market Shapes our product strategy Supports our long-range business plan Provides valuable data in our airline planning process Aviation industry resilient; long-term market outlook is strong Passenger air travel will grow at 5.3%, cargo at 5.9% Airlines will need 30,900 new airplanes valued at $3.6 trillion Boeing s market-driving products and services are ideally matched to the market today and in the future

42 There are 52 weeks in a year Airshow announcements 1,261 to 477 Airbus Boeing 1,600 1,400 Actual year-end net orders 4,234 to 4,263 Airbus Boeing 350 1, , Paris 2006 Farnborough 2007 Paris 2008 Farnborough 2009 Paris Net orders at the end of the year are what count

43 For more information, please visit our CMO website: You can also visit my blog, Randy s Journal: BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company. Copyright 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved.