Airport Characteristics: Part 2 Prof. Amedeo Odoni

Transcription

1 Airport Characteristics: Part 2 Prof. Amedeo Odoni Istanbul Technical University Air Transportation Management M.Sc. Program Air Transportation Systems and Infrastructure Module 4 May 25, 2015

2 Outline General introduction and the changing notion of what is a major airport Some standard configurations, nomenclature, background A few non-standard configurations Regional characteristics Page 2

3 30 Busiest Airports in the World (2014) (1) = pax (million); (2) = movements (thousand) (1) (2) (1)/(2) (1) (2) (1)/(2) Atlanta ATL Singapore SIN Beijing PEK New York JFK London LHR Denver DEN Tokyo HND Shanghai PVG Los Angeles LAX Kuala Lumpur KUL Dubai DXB San Francisco SFO Chicago ORD Bangkok BKK Paris CDG Seoul Incheon ICN * 153 Dallas DFW Charlotte CLT Hong Kong HKG Las Vegas LAS Frankfurt FRA Phoenix PHX Jakarta CGK Madrid MAD Istanbul IST Houston IAH Amsterdam AMS Miami MIA Guangzhou CAN Sao Paulo GRU Sources: ACI + Websites * Estimated Page 3

4 Evolution of 30 busiest airports by region North America * Europe Asia (+ Middle East + Oceania) Source: Center for Asian and Pacific Aviation (2011) *One in South America (Sao Paulo Guarulhos) Expect increasing future presence of Asian airports Several airports on list operating at their capacity limit or close to it (e.g., PEK, ORD, LHR, DXB, HKG, IST, JFK, SFO, GRU) Page 4

5 IATA: Partial List of Badly Congested Airports (2014) Airports with full terminals: 90 in 2014; 223 in 2020 Airports operating at 90% capacity of the runways: 6 in 2014; 63 in 2020 Page 5

6 Averages for 15 Busiest Airports (2010) Busiest 15 Airports in North America Millions of Annual Passengers (average) Thousands of annual aircraft movements (average) Passengers per movement Europe 35.7 (-24%) 325 (-40%) 110 (+26%) Asia 42.9 (-9%) 296 (-45%) 145 (+67%) * Data: Airports Council International (2011) Page 6

7 Averages for 15 Busiest Airports (2007) Busiest 15 Airports in North America Millions of Annual Passengers (average) Thousands of annual aircraft movements (average) Passengers per movement Europe 37.2 (-30%) 348 (-46%) 107 (+29%) Asia 35.8 (-33%) 234 (-64%) 153 (+84%) *Data: Airports Council International (2008) Page 7

8 Observations on US Airports Heavy reliance on large capacities (as measured by aircraft movements); most airports have multiple runways (3 7) Practically no slot controls (airlines may add flights anywhere at any time of day) US FAA capacity benchmarks (2004): 35 busiest airports 26 of 35: VMC capacity > 100/hour; range: of 35: IMC capacity > 100/hour; range: of 35: Plan new runway by 2013 Only three (!) non-us airports currently have a declared capacity of more than 100/hour a few more within next 5-10 years Unexpected(?) consequences: Airlines compete on frequencies ( RJ phenomenon ) Small number of passengers per movement Large delays, unreliability of schedules Page 8

9 Average Delay Relative to Schedule by Time-of-Day: 34 Busiest US Airports (All Arrivals, 2007) Delay increases during day in both VFR and IFR weather Estimated cost to US economy ~ $31 billion 9

10 Observations on Asian Airports Relatively small number of runways per airport and thus smaller airport capacities, as measured by the number of aircraft movements Reliance in many Master Plans on expectation of large and increasing number of passengers per movement But this assumption is proving very wrong! Rapid growth in short-haul regional + domestic traffic Rapid growth of low-cost carriers (overwhelmingly using narrow-body aircraft) Increasing use of hubbing Several estimates of ultimate annual passenger capacity are proving over-optimistic due to lack of runway capacity Page 10

11 Hong Kong (HKG) Page 11

12 Hong Kong: 2 independent parallel Page 12

13 Example: Hong Kong International Opened in 1998; two independent parallel runways Airport passenger capacity: was forecast as 87 million to be reached in based on forecast of 348 passengers per movement by 2040 BUT: average number of passengers per movement has declined steadily from 174 in 1999 to 149 in 2014 Reason: rapid growth of domestic traffic in China and of hubbing in Hong Kong Result: Capacity is now estimated as ~ 70 million! In 2014 the airport already served 60 million pax. (Will probably run out of capacity by 2018!) The newly-approved third runway is extremely expensive (US$17 billion!) and problematic. Page 13

14 Hong Kong: Third Runway Project (March 2012) Page 14

15 Similarities with HKG, but with a huge difference 2013 Statistics (vs. 2010): Passengers (million) Movements (thousands) Pax/Mvt Changi 53.7 (+28%) 344 (+30%) 156 (-3) Hong Kong 59.9 (+19%) 372 (+21%) 159 (-3) Two runways are insufficient to support future growth in number of movements at either airport But SIN already (almost) has a third runway, HKG does not! 2014: Changi, 54.1 mio pax, 341K mvts, pax/mvt Page 15

16 Where Do We Stand? Traffic at Changi Airport has continued to grow quickly in past decade (~ 5% per annum since 2000, both pax and movements; faster in 2012 and 2013, slow in 2014) Passengers (mio) Movements (thou) pax / movt No. of passengers per flight will increase(?) slowly over time (about 1 per year) [worldwide trend since 2000; IATA] Page 16

17 Observations on European Airports Persistently fast-growing demand since 1993 (until recently), exceeding predictions Limited increase in runway capacities of airports, despite airline behavior increasingly imitating the American model Heavy reliance on administrative slot allocation 17 major airports already receiving more slot requests per week than total weekly capacity Grandfather rights in slot allocation give strong advantage to former and current flag carriers at the most desirable airports Possibly world s most problematic region in terms of long-term ability to match capacity to demand, due to ambivalent government attitudes toward infrastructure expansion Page 17

18 Generalizations: Major Airports... North America: Large volumes of pax and aircraft; overwhelmingly domestic; numerous regional jets, general aviation; small no. of pax/flight Europe: Growing passenger volumes at major airports; primarily international (but Schengen treaty); few g.a. flights; intermediate no. of pax/flight East Asia/Pacific Rim/Middle East: Fastest-growing passenger volumes; strongest presence of wide-body jets; very few g.a. flights; large no. of pax/flight, but not growing in East Asia; many new low-fare carriers South America: Rapid recent growth of traffic; no mega-airports yet; often hard to expand airside Diversity is enormous; understanding of local factors is essential. Page 18

19 Questions? Comments? Page 19