Industry Update ACI-NA Board of Directors Meeting
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1 Industry Update ACI-NA Board of Directors Meeting September 16, 2017 Fort Worth, TX
2 Economic Indicator Review The near term (6 12 months) economic prospects are generally positive and steady for the North American airlines: U.S. and Canadian GDP have remained positive, albeit with steady, marginal growth rates. Jet fuel and the crack spread have seen little increase, giving airlines a boost to financial performance from declining expenses. Challenges remain from external factors such as concerns about additional terrorist attacks, uncertainty surrounding Brexit, recessions in Russia and Brazil, as well as political unrest Even though profitability of U.S. airlines might fall in the near term due to rising energy prices and higher labor costs, increasing air travel demand and airfares rising at a slower rate than inflation are likely to result in a profitable aviation industry in the long term. Over the past two years, Canadian airlines benefitted from lower fuel prices and a weaker Canadian dollar. While fuel prices have begun to creep upwards and the Canadian dollar has strengthened, this reversal in trend is not expected to threaten the profitability of the industry as demand will continue to grow. 2
3 1Q2007 2Q2007 3Q2007 4Q2007 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 4Q2014 1Q2015 2Q2015 3Q2015 4Q2015 1Q2016 2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017 U.S. & Canadian GDP Annual Growth 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% U.S.* Canada** -1% -2% -3% Change from Q U.S.: 2.2% Change from Q Canada: 3.7% -4% -5% U.S. GDP annual growth increased from 1.2% in 2016Q2 to 2.2% in 2017Q2. The annual growth rate for the 2017Q2 was driven by personal consumption expenditures and exports, but also offset by decreased private residential/inventory investment, and slowed nonresidential fixed investment. Growth in the Canadian economy was mainly due to household final consumption expenditures and exports of goods. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), 08/30/2017 Statistics Canada, 08/30/2017 Trading Economics, 08/30//2017 Note: annual growth rate is the change over the same quarter of the previous year *United States real GDP based on 2009 chained dollar value **Canada real GDP based on 2007 chained dollar value 3
4 U.S. & Canadian Unemployment Rate 10% U.S. Canada 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in July 2017, matching a 16-year low touched in May. Involuntary part time workers saw little change from April In Canada, the unemployment rate declined to 6.3%, the lowest unemployment rate since October Employment rose in Ontario and Manitoba, while it declined in Alberta, Newfoundland and Labrador as well as in Prince Edward Island. Source: Trading Economics, 08/28/2017 4
5 U.S. Dollars per Barrel Crude and Jet Fuel Prices Jet Crude Crack Jet Forecast Crude Forecast Crack Forecast Forecast by EIA as of 08/08/17 Crude oil prices rose as Saudi Arabia announced a cap on its crude oil exports in August. However, Libya and Nigeria, two other OPEC members, continue to increase crude oil production, a contributing factor in keeping prices near $50 per barrel. There are concerns that global inventories will not be reduced as quickly as expected and 2018 are expected to have more supply growth, leading to a lower forecast of crude oil prices in the coming months. Source: EIA, 08/28/2017 5
6 Top 20 North American Airports ( Passenger) Passengers Millions % +8.0% +1.3% +0.2% +3.9% +7.9% +6.1% +4.5% +8.0%+0.5% -1.0% +8.0% -1.6% +8.0% -3.3% +8.2%+2.3% +8.5% +2.9% +4.1% 20 0 ATL LAX ORD DFW JFK DEN SFO LAS SEA MIA CLT YYZ PHX MCO IAH EWR MSP BOS DTW PHL Total passenger numbers represent the sum of revenue and non-revenue passengers arriving or departing via commercial aircraft and helicopters on a scheduled or non-scheduled flight at the reporting airport. Percentage change represents year-over-year change for the reporting airport. Source: ACI 2016 World Air Traffic Report 6
7 Metric Tonnes Millions Top 20 North American Airports ( Cargo) % % +3.7% % +2.9% % -0.6% -1.8% +12.8% +1.8% +5.2% +3.6% +12.1% +0.1%+5.2% +8.8% -0.8% +0.5% +4.2% +10.2% 0 MEM ANC SDF MIA LAX ORD JFK IND DFW CVG EWR ATL ONT OAK SFO YYZ HNL IAH PHL SEA Total cargo figures represent the sum of the total freight and mail loaded and unloaded (arriving or departing) at the reporting airport. Cargo does not include passenger baggage, trucked freight and transit freight. Percentage change represents year-over-year change for the reporting airport. Source: ACI 2016 World Air Traffic Report 7
8 U.S. Aviation Traffic January May 2016 vs Jan May 2016 Jan-May 2017 Change Total Passengers million million 3.4% Domestic Passengers million million 2.7% International Passengers 82.7 million 87.3 million 5.9% Flights (thousands) 3, , % Available Seat Miles billion billion 5.8% Avg. Load Factor percent percent +0.26pts. Avg. Flight Stage Length* miles miles 1.0% In 2017 from January to May, total passenger traffic grew by 3.4% compared to the same period in 2016, with a greater increase in international traffic compared to domestic traffic. Available Seat Miles increased by 5.8% while Flights only increased by 0.2%. This is indicative of the continued upgauging strategy by airlines. Load Factor and Average Flight Stage Length both increased, by 0.26 pts and 1.0% respectively. *U.S. Air Carriers only Source: BTS T-100 Segment data, 08/28/2017 8
9 Millions Canadian Passenger Traffic 14 Domestic International + Transborder Based on ACI World estimates from the Big 8 Canada airports*, Canadian traffic grew 7.8% in 2017Q2 compared with 2016Q2. Domestic traffic grew 7.4% while international and transborder traffic grew 8.2%. In the 12 months ending June 2017, domestic traffic increased by 11.6% over the 12 months leading to June This strong growth signals a recovery in the domestic Canadian market. * Big 8 Canada airports: YYZ, YVR, YUL, YYC, YEG, YOW, YWG, YHZ Source: ACI World PaxFlash 9
10 Source: ACI World Pax Flash 10 Passenger Traffic by ACI Region: YTD June 2016 vs % 9.0% 8% 8.1% 7.2% 6% 5.1% 4% 3.5% 3.3% 2% 0% EUR ASP MEA LAC AFR NAM Europe was the region with the largest growth in June 2017, followed by Asia Pacific and the Middle East. The growth in Europe was driven by the strengthening of economies in the region as well as continued expansions by long-haul low-cost carriers. Africa has seen a 12-year high in traffic growth, which was largely driven by the Asian, American and European markets.
11 Freight Traffic by ACI Region: YTD June 2016 vs % 12.7% 12.0% 10.0% 10.1% 9.0% 8.0% 6.7% 6.6% 6.0% 4.8% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% AFR ASP EUR NAM MEA LAC Global air freight traffic grew 8.4% in the first half of The half-year performance of 2017 has been the strongest since air cargo s rebound from the global financial crisis in Africa and Asia Pacific are leading the growth in freight traffic, which has been boosted by increased trade between Africa and Asia, especially China. Source: ACI World Freight Flash 11
12 Flight Schedules Review Flight schedules filed for September 2017 reflect positive growth: U.S. and Canadian airports are seeing increases in seats while flights remain relatively stable Major airlines in North America are adding seats however not all are adding flights. Alaska, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and WestJet are adding the most flights. American, Delta and United are decreasing flights but increasing seats, indicative of continued upgauging of services to larger aircraft. Strong growth in international flights at Medium, Small and Non-hub U.S. airports Norwegian Air International is driving most of the growth, utilizing single-aisle aircraft with greater range to fly from Europe to smaller airports in the U.S. U.S. overseas territories in the Caribbean and Pacific will have more international flights. Flight schedules filed for December 2017 reflect strong growth: U.S. and Canadian airports will have more flights and seats compared to December 2016 American, Delta, United, Air Canada and Alaska are adding the most flights. Chicago O Hare has the greatest increase in flights as hub carriers United and American aggressively expand to compete for market share. Seattle is another competitive market, with both hub carriers Delta and Alaska adding the most flights to Seattle. Stronger growth of international flights at Canadian airports Air Canada continues expanding from its hubs with additional frequencies and new intercontinental destinations such as Taipei, Melbourne and Mumbai. 12
13 North America Capacity: Change in Scheduled Flights and Seats September 2016 vs. September % Flights Seats 6% 6.1% 5% 4% 4.9% 4.1% 4.6% 3% 2.9% 3.1% 2% 2.2% 1% 0.5% 0.5% 0% -0.2% -1% Large Medium Small Non-Hub Canada Source: Diio Mi, 08/16/
14 North America Capacity: Change in Scheduled Domestic and International Flights: September 2016 vs. September % Domestic International 19.1% 15.9% 15% 10% 8.3% 5% 3.7% 3.0% 3.5% 1.8% 0% 0.1% -0.3% -0.5% -5% Large Medium Small Non-Hub Canada Source: Diio Mi, 08/16/
15 North America Capacity: Change in Scheduled Flights and Seats December 2016 vs. December % Flights Seats 7% 6.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6% 5% 4.8% 4.6% 4% 3.7% 3.9% 3.4% 3.4% 3% 3.0% 2% 1% 0% Large Medium Small Non-Hub Canada Source: Diio Mi, 08/16/
16 North America Capacity: Change in Scheduled Domestic and International Flights: December 2016 vs. December % Domestic International 6.3% 6% 5.6% 5% 5.0% 4.6% 4% 4.0% 3% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2% 1% 0% 0.1% Large Medium Small Non-Hub Canada 0.0% Source: Diio Mi, 08/16/
17 World Capacity: Change in Scheduled Flights and Seats Q vs. Q % Flights Seats 8.6% 8% 7.3% 7.7% 7% 6.4% 6% 5.4% 5% 4.5% 4.2% 4.3% 4% 3% 2% 2.2% 2.3% 1% 0% 0.6% 0.2% MEA ASP LAC AFR NAM EUR Source: Diio Mi, 08/31/
18 Top 40 Airports Ranked by Seat Capacity Change Q vs. Q Rank Airport YOY Region Rank Airport YOY Region Rank Airport YOY Region 1 BCN 13.1% EUR 2 DEL 10.3% ASP 3 CGK 10.0% ASP 4 FRA 9.4% EUR 5 SIN 8.9% ASP 6 KUL 7.9% ASP 7 AMS 7.8% EUR 8 IST 7.4% EUR 9 SFO 7.3% NAM 10 MUC 6.2% EUR 11 ICN 6.1% ASP 12 BKK 6.0% ASP 13 SZX 5.7% ASP 14 SEA 5.5% NAM 15 TPE 5.5% ASP 16 TPE 5.5% ASP 17 LGW 5.3% EUR 18 MAD 5.2% EUR 19 HKG 4.6% ASP 20 CDG 4.6% EUR 21 YYZ 4.0% NAM 22 CAN 3.9% ASP 23 MIA 3.4% NAM 24 DFW 3.4% NAM 25 SYD 3.4% ASP 26 ORD 3.4% NAM 27 JFK 3.2% NAM 28 CLT 3.0% NAM 29 LHR 2.6% EUR 30 LAX 2.5% NAM 31 PVG 2.5% ASP 32 PEK 1.8% ASP 33 CTU 1.1% ASP 34 HND 0.7% ASP 35 ATL 0.3% NAM 36 LAS 0.1% NAM 37 DEN 0.1% NAM 38 KMG (0.6%) ASP 39 PHX (1.0%) NAM 40 DXB (1.3%) MEA Source: Diio Mi, 08/31/2017 Top 40 Airports from ACI 2016 World Air Traffic Report 18
19 1Q2007 2Q2007 3Q2007 4Q2007 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 4Q2014 1Q2015 2Q2015 3Q2015 4Q2015 1Q2016 2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 Average U.S. Airfare and Percent Change Year over Year Avg. U.S. Dom Fare % Change YoY $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Fares for the first quarter of 2017 decreased 2.6% year over year with the average domestic fare decreasing to $352. Airline revenue from ticket sales decreased to 73.7% for the first quarter of 2017, compared to 87.6% in The decrease is due to airlines unbundling services that were previously included in the airfare. Conversely, there has been an increase in ancillary revenue. Note: Unadjusted for inflation Source: BTS, 08/28/
20 Average Canadian Domestic Airfares (10 Major Cities) 4 th quarter 2015 (CAD) 4 th quarter 2016 (CAD) Change Calgary % Edmonton* N/A N/A N/A Halifax % Montréal % Ottawa % Regina % Saskatoon % Toronto % Vancouver % Winnipeg % Canada % * Data for Edmonton suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act Source: Statistics Canada, 08/29/
21 Millions U.S. Airline Ancillary Revenue (Q1) $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 Reservation Change Fees Miscellaneous Operating Revenues* Baggage Fee $0.10 $0.41 $ % $0.12 $0.68 $ % +6.6% $0.59 $0.77 $0.68 $ % $0.78 $ % -0.9% $0.80 $0.80 $1.16 $ % $ % $0.87 $1.26 $ % $0.98 $1.03 $1.51 $1.59 $0.59 $0.55 $0.60 $0.62 $0.69 $0.73 $0.76 $0.74 $0.72 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Note: * Includes fees paid to carriers for collection of PFC fee, transportation of pets/animals, frequent flyer related programs, WiFi, food and beverages, and others Overall, ancillary revenue increased 3.3% in Q from the same period last year. Reservation Change Fees decreased while Miscellaneous Operating Revenues and Baggage Fees increased year-over-year. Over the past decade, Baggage Fees have increased more than tenfold as airlines began charging for checked bags on domestic flights in % Source: BTS, 08/30/
22 North American Airlines Finances Net Profit/Loss Q vs. Q Carrier Q Q $260 million $296 million $60.8 million $48.5 million $950 million $803 million $1546 million $1224 million $79.6 million $80.4 million $181 million $211 million $820 million $746 million $73 million $78 million $588 million $818 million CAD 186 million CAD 36.7 million CAD 300 million CAD 48.4 million Most major airlines in North America recorded increased profits in 2017Q2. American Airlines saw decreased profits because of the rising fuel costs and employee benefit costs which contributed to an 11% increase in its operating expenses. For Canada, both Air Canada and WestJet had improved profits In 2017Q2. Air Canada delivered an excellent unit cost performance, and a huge increase in net cash flows. At the same time, WestJet experienced increased domestic travel and more demand for transborder and international travels. Source: Airlines Quarterly Results Releases 22
23 Special thanks to Diio Mi, BEA, DOT, Statistics Canada, FAA, and BTS for their contributions to this presentation. For comments or questions, please contact: Liying Gu or Ashley Sng ACI-NA (202)
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