The Airport Credit Outlook
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- Thomasine Powers
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1 The Airport Credit Outlook Peter Stettler Ricondo & Associates, Inc. National Federation of Municipal Analysts National Conference April 19, 2012 Las Vegas, Nevada
2 The Outlook for Airports Recent Trends Agenda Airport Credit Metrics Passenger Demand Capital Development / Bond Issuance Near-term Airline Seat Capacity Future considerations 2
3 Ricondo & Associates, Inc. - Overview Founded in 1989 Nationally recognized, minority-owned aviation consultancy Only business is airport and aviation consulting services Aviation consulting services offered: Business/Financial Planning Facilities and Operations Planning Environmental Planning Number of R&A bond feasibility studies included in a bond Official Statement since Studies Number of R&A airport clients associated with studies since Airports Dollar amount associated with bond issues since 2007 $14.7 Billion 3
4 Key Airport Credit Metrics Trends from FY 2001 to FY 2010 Moody s FY 2010 Airport Medians Indicate that between FY 2001 and FY 2010 Debt per enplaned passenger increased from $53.62 to $76.33 Total Operating Revs Per Passenger increased from $15.30 to $22.36 The Operating Ratio Improved from 63% to 67% Days Cash on Hand Increased from 406 days to 489 days Low of 332 days in 2003 Cost per Enplaned Passenger increased from $4.77 to $7.04 FY 2010 represents a decrease from the FY 2009 median CPE of $7.34 Debt Service Coverage declined from 1.93x to 1.62x Source: Moody s Investor Service, US Airport Medians for FY 2010, November 4, 2011 Downward rating actions have outpaced upward rating actions over past 5 years 4
5 In 2001 FAA and Industry Expected Strong Growth 1,200 Enplanements (millions) CAGR 4.0% 1, CAGR 3.8% Actual 2001 FAA Forecast 5
6 Actual Passenger Volume Essentially Flat Reflects Economic Conditions During the Decade Passengers (millions) Compound Annual Growth Rate 0.8% Economic Indices 1Q 2001 = Passengers (Rolling 12 mos) National GDP (Current $) Jet Fuel (ppg) National Average Air Fare Note: Jet Fuel, National GDP and National Average Air Fare are indexed, with 1Q 2001 = 100 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (Passengers, Jet Fuel Price, National Average Air Fare); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (National GDP) 6
7 FAA Forecast Trending Lower 1,200 Compound Annual Growth Rate 2001 Forecast: 4.0% 2008 Forecast: 3.2% 2012 Forecast: 2.8% 1, Forecast 2008 Forecast 2012 Forecast Actual Source: FAA Aerospace Forecasts FY 2001, FY 2008 and FY
8 ACI-NA Capital Survey Indicates Moderating Capital Plans $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 5-Year Capital Needs by Hub Size $ Billions $49.5 $37.6 $69.9 $74.4 $46.5 $55.3 $39.9 $17.1 $13.3 $8.9 $8.4 $3.5 $6.3 $5.8 $ Small Medium Large Source: Airports Council International - North America, Capital Needs Surveys 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011 $ Funding Sources (all airports) Airfield 51% Bonds 39% PFC 24% AIP 16% State / Local 6% Cash 5% Other 10% 2011 Planned Uses (all airports) Maint. 17% Stands. 16% Capacity 18% Terminal 28% Other 12% Surface Access 9% 8
9 Selected Capital Improvement Programs Announced or Ongoing Capital Programs Airport Amount Philadelphia International $6.4 billion Chicago O Hare International $6.4 billion Metropolitan Washington Airports Auth. $5.1 billion Los Angles International $4.1 billion Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International $3.9 billion Dallas Fort Worth International $3.3 billion Ft. Lauderdale Hollywood International $1.5 billion Phoenix Sky Harbor International $1.3 billion San Diego International $1.2 billion Denver International $900 million Source: Citigroup, 2011 Airport Finance Year in Review, January
10 Airport Borrowing Down Significantly in 2011 Total Airport Bond Volume By Tax Status ($ Billions) Airport debt outstanding reported to the FAA increased from $45.6 billion in 2001 to $74.9 billion in 2010 (small, medium & large hubs) Q1 AMT Non - AMT Taxable 10 8 By Purpose ($ Billions) Q1 Source: Securities Data Co. (Courtesy of Piper Jaffray & Co., Inc.); Citigroup, 2011 Airport Finance Year in Review, January 2012; FAA Form 127 data Q1 New money Refunding Combined 10
11 Airports Continue to Diversify Their Revenue Streams Airport Revenues Fiscal Years $16 $ Millions % Total 57% $14 56% $12 55% $10 $8 $6 54% 53% $4 $2 Compound Annual Growth Rates Airline Revenues 3.2% Non Airline Revenues 4.4% 52% 51% $ Airline Revenues Non-airline Revenues Airline Revenue as % of Total 50% Source: FAA Form 127 Data, accessed Oct. 5, 2011 (note FY2009 and after may not be comparable to earlier periods) 11
12 Looking Forward Airlines Continue to Right Size Airline Seat Capacity 1Q Q ,040 1,020 1, Industry (Millions) Airlines (Millions) Industry American Delta United USAirways Southwest 100 Note: Industry includes: American, Alaska, JetBlue, Delta (inc. Northwest), Air Tran, Frontier (inc. Midwest), Allegiant, Hawaiian, Spirit, United (inc. Continental), US Airways, Virgin America and Southwest. Source: Official Airline Guide 12
13 15.0% Large Hubs Showing Resilience Percentage Change in Large Hub Scheduled Seat Capacity % 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% HNL TPA LAS DTW ORD SAN SLC MDW MSP PHX PHL IAH IAD MCO EWR DFW LGA LAX SEA FLL BWI JFK ATL DCA BOS DEN MIA SFO CLT Source: Official Airline Guide 13
14 40% Medium Hubs Second Tier Connecting Hubs Downsized Percentage Change in Medium Hub Scheduled Seat Capacity % 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% CVG ONT OAK RNO SJU SJC PVD MEM BUR PIT SMF MCI ABQ OGG TUS STL CLE PBI SNA IND BDL JAX CMH RDU PDX BNA RSW ANC OMA SAT DAL BUF AUS HOU MKE MSY Source: Official Airline Guide
15 120.0% Small Hubs - Mixed Results Percentage Change in Small Hub Scheduled Seat Capacity % BLI 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% GSP LGB CHS SFB GRR FAR HSV ACY AVL -20.0% -40.0% ISP MHT ITO GPT SGF KOA GSO BOI LIH SBA All others -60.0% Source: Official Airline Guide 15
16 What to focus on going forward Strength of economic recovery Remains prime driver of demand for air travel Modest growth going forward? Airport finances Focus remains on developing non-airline revenue Capital needs moderating at least in short term Federal funding considerations PFC adjustment AIP Funding Municipal bond provisions (AMT holiday, Build America Bonds, loss of tax exemption) Airline industry factors Fuel prices Capacity restraint Financial performance Consolidation (Integration) Regionalization Growing influence of network alliances 16
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