THE FUNDAMENTALS OF ROUTE DEVELOPMENT SETTING THE SCENE MODULE 1

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1 THE FUNDAMENTALS OF ROUTE DEVELOPMENT SETTING THE SCENE

2 THE FUNDAMENTALS OF ROUTE DEVELOPMENT Mike St Laurent Vice President, Consulting - ASM

3 ASM BACKGROUND Global consultancy founded in 1993 to provide route development services for airports and their stakeholders

4 COURSE PROGRAMME Fundamentals of Route Development 1. Welcome & Setting the scene Day Understanding your Market Day Understanding Airlines Day Positioning and Competitors Day Strategy and Targets Day Implementation Day Basic Route Forecasting Day Airline Network Planning & Scheduling Day Airline Deals Day Marketing to Airlines and the Perfect Presentation Day

5 HOUSE RULES Don t be inhibited - Ask lots of questions Compare and share experiences and learn from each other Mobiles on quiet, breaks for s etc. Course notes electronically

6 DELEGATE INTRODUCTIONS EXPERIENCES, CHALLENGES, OBJECTIVES

7 OBJECTIVES Why we do Route Development? What are the drivers of traffic growth? What are the key global issues? What are the key local issues?

8 WHY DO WE DO ROUTE DEVELOPMENT?

9 WHY AIR SERVICE DEVELOPMENT? Airports: To secure & grow business To establish market positioning & brand To gain prestige local/regional/national To beat the competition To maximize revenues ROI for operating company, grow value To diversify customer base Address home carrier lack of action Tourism: To attract & enable visitors To open new source markets, grow existing To diversify consumer offer, enhance access choice To flex seasonality To support hotel/accommodation providers

10 WHY AIR SERVICE DEVELOPMENT? Government: Economic stimulus, job creation Connectivity Prestige Influence national carrier

11 Economic Impact The economic impact of air service development is vast: "The non-gaming economic impact of one British Airways flight from London to Las Vegas is currently $91 million annually," said Cathy Tull, Senior Vice President of Marketing for the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA). "This flight was the result of opportunities realised at previous Routes forums.

12 Economic Impact

13 SETTING THE SCENE

14 SETTING THE SCENE GLOBAL ISSUES Economic Growth New Era route Development World fleet orders Regulatory Route Dev. Aircraft Technologies Middle East big 3 Oil prices Market Segments - LCC s etc

15 SETTING THE SCENE AIR TRAVEL DEMAND ICAO Total Traffic % % % Airbus GMF 2015 Air Traffic will double in the next 15 years Air traffic will double over the next 15 years. Source: ICAO, Airbus

16 SETTING THE SCENE AIR TRAVEL DEMAND Air Traffic Growth consistently outperforms GDP growth Growth Ratio 1970s 3.1% 1980s 1.9% 1990s 1.8% 2000s 1.4% 2010s 2.1% Source: ICAO, IHS Economics

17 SETTING THE SCENE AIR TRAVEL DEMAND Air traffic is resilient Oil Crisis Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis Asian Crisis 9/11 SARS Financial Crisis Measured in passengers world air traffic grew 73% over the period In the six years following the financial crisis of 2008, average annual growth was 6.6%. Source: World Bank

18 Global Middle Class

19 Trips per Capita

20 Trips per Capita

21 Urbanisation Mega Cities

22 Urbanisation Mega Cities

23 Setting the Scene Economic Variations

24 Shift in Market Power Source: IATA

25 World s Top Tourism Spenders (2015) International Tourism Expenditure 2015

26 AIRLINE FLEET ORDERS Their current fleet of 702 aircraft will grow substantially, with 243 planes on order plus options for an additional 214. Introduction of the 737-MAX aircraft will provide the airline with increased range to operate longer sectors. Azul currently has 134 aircraft in service. With 99 aircraft on order, plus an additional 24 options, their fleet could nearly double in the next few years. Their capacity will grow significantly as they add larger aircraft; i.e. 320s, 321s, and A350s Fleet will grow from 24 aircraft to 67, and potentially to 107 with options, Current fleet of 83 aircraft, but 156 more on order, including 18 widebodies (787-8 and A350). 26

27 AIRCRAFT TECHNOLOGY - 787

28 SETTING THE SCENE B787 orders and deliveries (cumulative; by year-end) Top 10 Airline Customers 1. ANA 2. Etihad 3. United 4. JAL 5. BA 6. American 7. Air Canada 8. Qatar Airways 9. Singapore Airlines 10. Air India Boeing 787 Orders and Deliveries by Year Total Orders , Deliveries Total

29 AIRCRAFT TECHONOLOGY A350 A Range

30 AIRCRAFT TECHNOLOGIES A350 A350 aircraft: May 2015 Total orders: 730 In Service: 3 (Qatar Airways) Source: Flightglobal May 2015

31 AIRCRAFT TECHOLOGIES - A380 A380 orders and deliveries

32 AIRCRAFT TECHNOLOGIES - COMAC ARJ21 China has been assembling aircraft under franchise for some time ARJ21 represents China s ambition to take on the duopoly in aircraft manufacturing Launch airline is Chengdu Airlines Cost per unit is very low at $20 million Dense configuration is at around 100 seats.

33 Role of LCCs AMEND North Asia LCC Seat only 9.5% % of Low Cost Seats by Region (2013) South East Asia 50% 1020 aircraft order from the three largest LCCs in Asia Development of Pan Asia LCC brands Source: Innovata

34 Consolidation, Mergers, Acquisitions & LCC Subsidiaries Consolidation: loss of Transaero & Estonia Air Continuation of cross airline investments: SQ and Vistara, IAG & Aer Lingus / Etihad & Alitalia / TAP & Atlantic Gateway (AZUL). (Who next: LOT Turkish Airlines, SAS) LCC subsidiaries: ANA (Vanilla & Peach), Lufthansa (Eurowings / Jump), Singapore (Tiger & Scoot) LCCs conversations with FSC: Ryanair Aer Lingus, easyjet Lufthansa Role of the alliances

35 BUSINESS MODELS MIXING Pure LCC Hybrid Pure Network Point to point network model Leisure market focus No FFP Sales channel via proprietary web sales only Scheduling takes no account of connecting opportunities Point-to point network model Business and Leisure market focus FFP Multiple sales channels including limited GDS participation No Alliance membership (until recently!) or IATA driven interline connecting products On-line connecting product only Connecting traffic network model Business and Leisure market focus FFP Multiple sales channels including full GDS participation Alliance membership, and IATA driven interline connecting products

36 Oil Price Impact Existing Brent Crude Oil $50 Average fuel price for 2014 $101 Average fuel price for 2015 $65 Drop in fuel price of 36% AA drop in fuel bill 44% YTD 3QTR

37 New Era of Route Development Marketing within Airport Structure Relationship with airlines Handles dialogue with local airlines Terminal advertising Utility for airlines Published fees and charges Stakeholders Airlines, passengers and other airport departments Route Development tools Research & Analysis (catchment, forecasts, market analysis, market research) Consumer marketing Defines market position of airport Increased focus on route development Meetings with airline Head Office Incentives become common Increasingly includes external stakeholders R&A includes network performance Consumer marketing B2B marketing CRM Marketing has Board level role Fundamental to airport strategy Targeted sales Pricing negotiated Marketing coordinates stakeholder interest Creation of Route Development Fund Social networking and new media Website facilitates connecting traffic

38 SETTING THE SCENE CHINA ISSUES LCC s Middle East 3 Economy China Global Issues Airline deals Regulation Tourism competition

39 Middle East Domination Dubai is now the largest International Airport In 2005 Dubai wasn t in the top 10 Emirates launched 30 years ago (1984) Half of the world s A380s operated by EK If and when will Istanbul over take Dubai? Airport Passengers 2014 % Dubai 69,954,392 6% Heathrow 68,091,095 2% Hong Kong 62,929,420 6% Paris Charles de Gaulle 58,623,111 3% Amsterdam Schiphol 54,940,534 5% Singapore Changi 54,093,070 1% Frankfurt 52,713,013 3% Incheon 44,906,813 10% Ataturk 38,037,302 12% Bangkok Suvarnabhumi 37,183,099-10%

40 The Nine Air Freedom Rights

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