Managing And Understand The Impact Of Of The Air Air Traffic System: United Airline s Perspective

Transcription

1 Managing And Understand The Impact Of Of The Air Air Traffic System: United Airline s Perspective NEXTOR NEXTOR Moving Moving Metrics: Metrics: A Performance-Oriented View View of of the the Aviation Aviation Infrastructure January January 30, 30,

2 Topics of Discussion Balance Between Revenue And Reliability Building Scheduled Block Time For Reliability Revenue Environment and The Effect On Reliability The O Hare Impact Summary

3 The Key is Balancing Reliability with Revenue

4 Building Block For Reliability

5 Development Of An Accurate Scheduled Block Time Is Critical For Maintaining An Ontime Airline Block time is the time from gate departure (brake release) to gate arrival (brake set). It is composed of: - Taxi-out time - Flight time - Taxi-in time Scheduled block times are calculated to achieve a target block ontime :00 for a season. They are based on the historical performance of a segment when data is available. Page 1

6 The Building Block of United s Operation Begins the long term planning process How many Pilots do we need? How many Flight Attendants do we need? Estimated Block Time Level (Used in estimating 1-2 years out) How will the banks flow? Do we have enough aircraft to maintain the schedule?

7 Transitions into the schedule development process 5 months or more 4 months 3 months 1 to 2 months Schedule Effective Typical schedule development timeline OA creates scheduled block times Intermediate scheduling assigns fleets Current scheduling works in division criteria Flight and Onboard crews scheduled

8 And drives the results of our on-time performance 90% 85% A:14 When Block is Less Than 65% A:14 When Block is 65% or Higher 90% 85% 85% 80% 79% 79% Arrival :14 Percent 75% 70% 65% 67% 60% 55% 50% When D:00 is less than 59% When D:00 is between 60-69% When D:00 is 70% or Higher

9 Revenue Environment And Impact On Reliability

10 U.S. Airline Passenger Revenues Declined 3.2% In 2003 Compared To RPMS ASMS Yield Revenue Percent Change From % -2.4% -3.4% -3.2%

11 And Airline Passenger Revenues Expressed As A Share Of The U.S. Economy Has Materially Declined And Is Expected To Continue To Erode 0.90% Airline Passenger Revenues % Of GDP 0.80% 0.70% 0.60% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% % of GDP Trend Rate

12 Consumer Spending Changes and Decline in Airlines Financial Condition Have Contributed to Declines in Industry Departures Airline Industry Average Daily Departures By Year 18,075 10% reduction 17,520 17,500 16,446 16,654 16,717 16,940 16,386 16, Note: Departures are from top 31 airports

13 The Reduction In Departures Has Helped The Airlines To Achieve Record Arrival :14 Results Airline Industry Average Daily Departures By Month 85% 84% 82% 79.9% E

14 Nonetheless, Industry Capacity (ASM) Growth Will Resume In % 6.4% 2003 Versus % 2004 Versus % Domestic International

15 And, Industry Departures At The Top 31 FAA Airports And United Hub Cities Will Grow In % and 12% Respectively From 2003 Daily Departures Industry 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16,500 16,000 15,500 15, ,100 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 Daily Departures At UA Hubs FAA Top Airports UA Hubs

16 Most Of The Growth Will Occur At Airports That Are Located In The Eastern Half Of The U.S., An Already Congested Area SEA Up 1% SFO Up 2% DEN Up 7% MSP Up 5% ORD Up 10% DTW Up 6% CLE Up 16% EWR, LGA & JFK Up 5% PHL Up 5% Red = 5% or Greater LAX Up 0% Yellow = Between 2% - 4% Green = 1% or Less PHX Up -3% DFW Up 7% IAH Up 12% ATL Up 8% IAD, DCA & BWI Up 2% (IAD up 77% w/ start-up of Independence Air)

17 Year Over Year (Jan-Apr), Domestic Departures Are Expected To Increase By 5-6% With The Largest Increase In Commuters 12.2% YOY Change in Departures 5.3% 3.2% 6.9% 0.4% Industry United Majors (9 Largest DOT Carriers) Commuters Others (Jet Blue, Frontier, etc.)

18 In November, We Began To Experience Congestion Related Delays At O Hare Which Impacted Our System Net Block Minutes 2.0 Block Minutes (Early)/Late Jan'03 Feb'03 Mar'03 Apr'03 May'03 Jun'03 Jul'03 Aug'03 A Change of :02 Minutes Per Flight Between Oct and Nov Sep'03 Oct'03 Nov'03 Dec'03 Jan' Between These Two Months, Both D:00 And A:14 Fell By 11 Points, Resulting In 1 Million United Passengers Being Delayed

19 The O Hare Impact

20 Industry Departures At O Hare Are Expected To Set A Record Level In ,351 1,276 1,245 1,231 1,199 1,156 1, E (Adjusted) E Industry Daily Departures

21 The Increase In Flights At O Hare Has Dramatically Effected The Number Of Arrivals Impacted By A GDP (30 (30 Day Day Moving Average September 1, 1, January 22, 22, 2004) 2004) 18% 16% Percent Of Arrivals Impacted By GDP 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Impact of O Hare On System Averages 4% 5% 10% 3% 0% 9/30/03 10/14/03 10/28/03 11/11/03 11/25/03 12/9/03 12/23/03 1/6/04 1/20/04 UA Ind XUA

22 As A Result, The Block Performance Of Inbound Flights To Chicago Has Diminished, Resulting In Poor On-Time Performance For Both Arrivals And Outbound Departures 70.0% Inbound ORD Block : % 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% Increased delay due to LAHSO limitations November scheduled arrivals increased by 73, resulting in a further B:00 reduction Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Goal = 65%

23 A Strong Correlation Exists Between An Airports Capacity And The Scheduled Demand. The Percent Of Airport Capacity At O Hare Is Nearing 100%, Resulting In Significant ATC Delays Percent of Scheduled O Hare Flights Compared To Average Airport Capacity Rates (Based On Arrivals) Jan-00 Mar-00 May-00 Jul-00 Sep-00 Nov-00 Jan-01 Mar-01 May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 % of Airport Capacity Scheduled Dec. 00 = 92% (Several snow storms Resulted in A:00 at 32%) November and December Show That ORD Has Reached Near Maximum Capacity

24 When An Airport s Scheduled Flights Are Near The Airports Posted Maximum Arrival Rate, Significant Delays Will Occur 96% - ORD (Nov 03) 26.8 Delay Minutes / Flt. 84% - ORD (Jun 03) 8.7 Delay Minutes / Flt. 89% - ORD (Aug 01) 9.6 Delay Minutes / Flt. 42% - DEN (Jun 01) 1.6 Delay Minutes / Flt. 53% - SFO (Jun 03) 3.7 Delay Minutes / Flt. 77% - ORD (Jan 02) 8.1 Delay Minutes / Flt. 50% of Capacity (Few Arrival Delays) 75% of Capacity (Arrival Delays Build) Scheduled Flights As A Percent To Actual Airport Capacity Rates 100% of Capacity (Gridlock)

25 Air Traffic Delays Into O Hare Are At A High. As The Day Continues, These Delays Grow Substantially 60 November Average Air Traffic Related Delay Per O Hare Arrival (Based on Upline FC Delays, Taxi-out and Hold) 50 ATC Index (Minutes Per Flight) November Average = 0:26 Minutes Per Flt :00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:45 18:15 18:45 19:15 19:45 20:15 20:45 January - October Average = 0:11 Minutes Per Flt Time (:15 Minute Increments)

26 However, Significant Changes Have Been Made With The February/March Schedule Period 120 Dec 03 Schedule (Prior To De-Peaking) 110 Arrivals Per Hour Rate (Optimum) March 04 Schedule (After De-Peak and Prior to Cancels) :00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30 18:00 18:30 19:00 19:30 20:00 March 04 Schedule (After De-Peak and After Cancels) Time (:15 Minute Increments)

27 A Small Change In The Airport Arrival Rate Of 8 Flights Per Hour Can Have A Significant Impact On Flights In The Airport Arrival Queue (O Hare Arrivals During December 03) Flights In The Arrival Queue When The Rate Is At Flights In The Arrival Queue When The Rate Is At :00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30 18:00 18:30 19:00 19:30 20:00 20:30 21:00 21:30 22:00 Number of Flights in Arrival Que 0:15 Minute Time Interval

28 In The March Schedule, Just The De-Peaking Effort Has Resulted In Dramatic Improvements (O Hare Arrivals During March 04 - Does Not Include Cancellations) Flights In The Arrival Queue When The Rate Is At 92 Flights In The Arrival Queue When The Rate Is At :00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30 18:00 18:30 19:00 19:30 20:00 20:30 21:00 21:30 22:00 Number of Flights in Arrival Que 0:15 Minute Time Interval

29 To Summarize Industry Must Learn to to Operate Profitably Given New Economic and Operating Environment Reduced Passenger Demand Has Helped Airlines Build An Operationally Strong Schedule Over The Past Two Years However, Small Changes To A Hub Airport Can Easily Result In In Congestion Which Ripples Across The System The Collaborative Approach Between The FAA, United And American Regarding O Hare Operations Will Result In In Reduced Delay Minutes To Accommodate Future Air Travel Requirements, Both Airlines and Government Need To Work Collaboratively To Economically and Efficiently Expand Capacity