The Housing Market and the Macroeconomy
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- Barry Harvey
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1 The Housing Market and the Macroeconomy New England Mortgage Bankers Association October 2,
2 The World is in a Deep Recession In the U.S. EMPLOYMENT: Job losses in August, 2009: -216,000 Job losses since December, 2007: >6.9 million Unemployment rate 9.7% REAL GDP: Falling since 2008 Q2 2
3 Balance Sheet of the U.S. Household Sector Q Total Assets 76.5 Total Liabilities 14.4 Net Worth 62.1 Amounts in trillions of dollars 3
4 Household Balance Sheet Detail Q Household Assets Real Estate 20.5 Pension Fund Reserves 13.0 Equities (Direct) 9.3 Mutual Funds 5.0 Credit Instruments 4.2 Cash 7.5 Durable Goods 4.0 Non-Corp. Buinesses 7.9 Other 5.1 Total 76.5 Household Liabilities Home Mortgages 10.5 Consumer Credit 2.5 Other 1.4 Total 14.4 Amounts in trillions of dollars 4
5 Implications for Balance Sheet Known Losses Q as of Feb Household Assets Real Estate Pension Fund Reserves Equities (Direct) Mutual Funds Credit Instruments Cash Durable Goods Non-Corp. Buinesses 7.9? Other 5.1? Total Household Liabilities Home Mortgages 10.5 Consumer Credit 2.5 Other 1.4 Total Amounts in trillions of dollars 5
6 Why do home prices matter? Houses are collateral for mortgage debt If prices continue to fall, the 2008 and 2009 books could be unprofitable Some $5 trillion has been lost from household balance sheets household spending has fallen: -Equity can t be withdrawn -General drop in consumption 6
7 Housing Links to the Real Economy 1. Direct Effects: Housing Starts 2. Wealth Effects 3. Financial Meltdown 7
8 Housing Starts (Census Bureau SAAR) August 2009 Down Average Fixed Investment Per Unit (ex: Land) Total Annual Direct Lost Production Total Lost Production (multiplier: 1.4) Effect on GDP January 2006 (Peak) Annual Lost Production As Percentage of GDP million units 598,000 units 1.68 million units $250,000 $420 billion 1.4 x $420b = $588 billion 4.2% of GDP 8
9 Housing Starts, Jan June ,000 2,500 2,000 Thousands 1,500 1, Jan 1974-Jan 1976-Jan 1978-Jan 1980-Jan 1982-Jan 1984-Jan 1986-Jan 1988-Jan 1990-Jan 1992-Jan 1994-Jan 1996-Jan 1998-Jan 2000-Jan 2002-Jan 2004-Jan 2006-Jan 2008Jan Date 9
10 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price National Index Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 10
11 OHFEO House Price Index Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 11
12 Between 2000 and 2005 We added $10 trillion to the stock of housing: $5 trillion in land $5 trillion in structures 12
13 13
14 14
15 Metro Area Peak S&P Case-Shiller Indexes -- Through June 2009 % Since Peak Released August 25, 2009 % Last Year % from April to May % from May to June % from Jan to June 2009 Phoenix Jun % -31.6% -0.9% 1.1% 4.7% Las Vegas Aug % -32.3% -2.6% -2.0% 7.3% Miami Dec % -23.4% -0.8% 0.5% 45.4% San Francisco May % -22.0% 1.4% 3.8% 24.7% Detroit Dec % -25.0% 0.2% -0.8% -30.5% San Diego Nov % -16.0% 0.4% 1.6% 47.3% Los Angeles Sep % -17.8% -0.1% 1.4% 60.9% Tampa Jul % -19.5% 0.0% 0.4% 40.9% Minneapolis Sep % -19.8% 1.2% 3.4% 13.5% Washington May % -11.8% 1.3% 2.8% 74.3% Chicago Sep % -16.7% 1.1% 1.1% 25.0% Atlanta Jul % -13.7% 0.3% 1.7% 7.5% Seattle Jul % -16.1% -0.3% 0.4% 49.5% Portland Jul % -15.1% 0.1% 1.0% 48.5% New York Jun % -11.9% 0.0% 0.6% 71.5% Cleveland Jul % -3.0% 4.1% 4.2% 6.4% Boston Sep % -5.9% 1.6% 2.6% 52.7% Denver Aug % -3.6% 1.3% 2.5% 26.9% Charlotte Aug % -9.6% 0.9% 0.7% 20.7% Dallas Jun % -2.3% 1.9% 2.7% 19.7% Composite 10 Jun % -15.1% 0.4% 1.5% 53.2% Composite 20 Jul % -15.4% 0.5% 1.4% 41.9% 15
16 S&P Case-Shiller Index (% Change) 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% % Change from previous month 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% Feb-87 Feb-88 Feb-89 Feb-90 Feb-91 Feb-92 Feb-93 Feb-94 Feb-95 Feb-96 Feb-97 Feb-98 Feb-99 Feb-00 Feb-01 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb % -2.5% -3.0% Month 16
17 Tiered Home Price Indices for San Francisco 300 <$410K >$675K Low Tier: 2000 to Peak (2006-8): 176% Peak to : -54% High Tier: 2000 to Peak (2007-8): 91% Peak to : -18%
18 Tiered Home Price Indices for Miami <$229K >$338K Low Tier: 2000 to Peak (2007-3): 241% Peak to : -47% High Tier: 2000 to Peak (2006-5): 158% Peak to : -37%
19 LOW TIERS Seventeen Metros 350 Miami Los Angeles 300 San Diego Washington Tampa 250 San Francisco New York Las Vegas 200 Phoenix Boston Seattle 150 Portland Minneapolis 100 Chicago Denver Atlanta Cleveland 19
20 BOOM: Up 200% to 240% RED HOT -- Four Metros Triple Miami, Los Angeles, San Diego, Washington 350 Miami Los Angeles 300 San Diego Washington Tampa 250 San Francisco New York Las Vegas 200 Phoenix Boston Seattle 150 Portland Minneapolis 100 Chicago Denver Atlanta Cleveland 20
21 BOOM: Up 140% to 180% Tampa, San Francisco, New York, Las Vegas, Phoenix 350 Miami Los Angeles 300 San Diego Washington Tampa 250 San Francisco Fran. New York Las Vegas 200 Phoenix Boston Seattle 150 Portland Minneapolis 100 Chicago Denver Atlanta Cleveland 21
22 BOOM: Up 80% to 120% Boston, Seattle, Minneapolis, Chicago 350 Miami Los Angeles 300 San Diego Washington Tampa 250 San Francisco New York Las Vegas 200 Phoenix Boston Seattle 150 Portland Minneapolis 100 Chicago Denver Atlanta Cleveland 22
23 BOOM: Up 30% to 40% Denver, Atlanta, Cleveland 350 Miami Los Angeles 300 San Diego Washington Tampa 250 San Francisco New York Las Vegas 200 Phoenix Boston Seattle 150 Portland Minneapolis 100 Chicago Denver Atlanta Cleveland 23
24 BUST: Down 55% to 66% San Francisco, Las Vegas, Phoenix 350 Miami Los Angeles 300 San Diego Washington Tampa 250 San Francisco Fran. New York Las Vegas 200 Phoenix Boston Seattle 150 Portland Minneapolis 100 Chicago Denver Atlanta Cleveland 24
25 BUST: Down 46% to 52% Miami, Los Angeles, San Diego, Washington, Tampa, Minneapolis 350 Miami Los Angeles 300 San Diego Washington Tampa 250 San Francisco New York Las Vegas 200 Phoenix Boston Seattle 150 Portland Minneapolis 100 Chicago Denver Atlanta Cleveland 25
26 BOOM: Down 29% to 37% Boston, Chicago, Atlanta, Cleveland 350 Miami Los Angeles 300 San Diego Washington Tampa 250 San Francisco New York Las Vegas 200 Phoenix Boston Seattle 150 Portland Minneapolis 100 Chicago Denver Atlanta Cleveland 26
27 BOOM: Down 18% to 22% Seattle, Portland, Denver 350 Miami Los Angeles 300 San Diego Washington Tampa 250 San Francisco New York Las Vegas 200 Phoenix Boston Seattle 150 Portland Minneapolis 100 Chicago Denver Atlanta Cleveland 27
28 HOW DID THIS HAPPEN.????? 28
29 Figure 11 b: United States Total Quarterly Originations Refinance Originations Housing Prices Purchase Originations Target fed funds rate 1, Loans Originated ($bills) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Time Source Greenspan and Kennedy, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, S&P Case-Shiller. 0 29
30 WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? 30
31 Two Market Clearing Processes Normal times: Sellers resist, buyers lowball, sticky prices, inventories high, production falls 31
32 Two Market Clearing Processes Normal times: Sellers resist, buyers lowball, sticky prices, inventories high, production falls Foreclosure auctions: prices less sticky, distressed sales 32
33 Home Sales Price/Per-capita Income Ratios for Selected Metro Areas, Q Q Price/Income Ratio AZ-Phoenix CA-Los Angeles CA-San Diego CA-San Francisco CO-Denver DC-Washington FL-Miami GA-Atlanta IL-Chicago MA-Boston MN-Minneapolis NC-Charlotte NV-Las Vegas NY-New York OR-Portland 0 WA-Seattle Mar-87 Mar-88 Mar-89 Mar-90 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Sources: Quarter S&P Case-Shiller Index; Census Bureau; BEA; Moody's Economy.com Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 33
34 What s up now? GOOD NEWS: Most recent numbers: June and July 2009 Existing sales (NAR): Pending home sales: Starts (Census): New home sales: New home inventory: +15% to 5.24 million (SAAR) up since March +21% since January Rising for the last 6 consecutive months +25% since April to 598,000 (SAAR) +30% since March to 433,000 (SAAR) Down to 271,000 (65%) year over year Falling for 12 consecutive months Now 7.5 months of inventory (12.5% in January) FHFA Home Price Index +0.9% May over April 2009 S&P Case-Shiller Price Composite +1.4% June over May 2009 Increases in 18 of 20 metro areas Home buyer surveys show optimism; 5.6 million total sales out of million households (5%) 34
35 Bad News: Recession Long term projections Inventory of foreclosed property 35
36 HOUSEHOLD FORMATIONS and HOUSING STARTS Census Projections Annually (SAAR) (millions) Actual Household Formation Rates (SAAR) (millions) Household Formations (millions) Housing Starts (millions) p TOTAL
37 37
38 Figure 2 San Francisco: House Price Trends Perceptions: Which best describes the area home price trend? Rising Rapidly 84% 29% 4% 1% Rising Slowly Not Changing Falling Slowly Falling Rapidly Expectations: It's a good time to buy because prices likely to increase. Agree 95% 82% 58% 80% '87 '87 '88 '88 '89 '89 '90 '90 '91 '91 '92 '92 '93 '93 '94 '94 '95 '95 '96 '96 '97 '97 '98 '98 '99 '99 '00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 38
39 Figure 1 Orange County: House Price Trends Perceptions: Which best describes the area home price trend? Rising Rapidly 91% 76% 0% 0% Rising Slowly Not Changing Falling Slowly Falling Rapidly Expectations: It's a good time to buy because prices likely to increase. Agree 93% 77% 71% 80% Los Angeles 0 '87 '87 '88 '88 '89 '89 '90 '90 '91 '91 '92 '92 '93 '93 '94 '94 '95 '95 '96 '96 '97 '97 '98 '98 '99 '99 '00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 39
40 Figure 3 Boston: House Price Trends Perceptions: Which best describes the area home price trend? Rising Rapidly 3% 30% 1% 1% Rising Slowly Not Changing Falling Slowly Falling Rapidly Expectations: It's a good time to buy because prices likely to increase. Agree 78% 66% 72% 82% '87 '87 '88 '88 '89 '89 '90 '90 '91 '91 '92 '92 '93 '93 '94 '94 '95 '95 '96 '96 '97 '97 '98 '98 '99 '99 '00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 40
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